If Carsen Returns next year, are we a Final Four team?
- Thread starter big10best
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I would think so. Less than 1% chance he returns though imo.
no. making the final 4 is not about talent. it's about match-ups and luck. just ask Duke.
Would Purdue have the talent and be favored to reach the final four? Obviously yes. They would probably be rated in the top five or higher to begin the season.
That being said, he isn't coming back. I could be wrong but I would be shocked if he returns.
I'm not even sure Purdue would have the talent to be favored to reach the final 4.
We're not signing any one and dones. Most people expect Gillis will redshirt due to injury. How much of an impact will Newman be if Carsen returns? Would he fill Cline's role?
if you read some of the posts here, we're a terrible rebounding team. people don't like the way our guard shoots the ball. We have a lot of projects and one wore a boot for the majority of the year. and another player needs to lose a lot of weight and he fouls too much. there are a lot of ? marks, even if Carsen returned.
I believe Purdue fans believe our talent is the best. but to be favored as a final 4 team, that would mean Purdue would have the talent level of being one of the top 4 teams. in just looking at talent, and not coaching, and trying to be objective, with Carsen, do you believe Purdue's talent level next year would be better than MSU, Kansas, Arizona, UK, Duke UNC ? or Texas Tech?
is Haarms > Ward? it looks like Winston is returning. and hall is going to MSU. Will Purdue even be favored to win the Big 10?
Purdue has talent, and will probably be a top 15 team once more. But I'm not going to be boastful and say it has the talent to be a final 4 team. I'm quite sure many other college fans think the same about their team as well.
BUT hey , let the FINAL 4 chants begin, and then people like me will reply and say let's be realistic. and then people will say how negative some people on the board are and how only one person said we'd be good this year. the wheel is unbroken. the posts are cyclical.
it's nice to hope. that's why we play the games.
We're not signing any one and dones. Most people expect Gillis will redshirt due to injury. How much of an impact will Newman be if Carsen returns? Would he fill Cline's role?
if you read some of the posts here, we're a terrible rebounding team. people don't like the way our guard shoots the ball. We have a lot of projects and one wore a boot for the majority of the year. and another player needs to lose a lot of weight and he fouls too much. there are a lot of ? marks, even if Carsen returned.
I believe Purdue fans believe our talent is the best. but to be favored as a final 4 team, that would mean Purdue would have the talent level of being one of the top 4 teams. in just looking at talent, and not coaching, and trying to be objective, with Carsen, do you believe Purdue's talent level next year would be better than MSU, Kansas, Arizona, UK, Duke UNC ? or Texas Tech?
is Haarms > Ward? it looks like Winston is returning. and hall is going to MSU. Will Purdue even be favored to win the Big 10?
Purdue has talent, and will probably be a top 15 team once more. But I'm not going to be boastful and say it has the talent to be a final 4 team. I'm quite sure many other college fans think the same about their team as well.
BUT hey , let the FINAL 4 chants begin, and then people like me will reply and say let's be realistic. and then people will say how negative some people on the board are and how only one person said we'd be good this year. the wheel is unbroken. the posts are cyclical.
it's nice to hope. that's why we play the games.
Ok, ok, so with us making the E8 and seriously close to FF, DANGEROUSLY close.....what are we losing? A walk-on with one season of scholly? Cline? The experience of those Frosh and another year of experience with everyone else vastly outweigh those losses. If Carsen returns, and I really doubt he does return, we are most definitely a FF built team. Hell, we have a NCOY on top of that! Don't be silly Wolegib.
I would think that if Carsen returns, we are preseason top 5. Does that mean we make the Final Four? Who knows. Matchups, and luck, injuries, etc., etc.
But I don't expect him to return.
But I don't expect him to return.
Of course. They were a final four team this year. Virginia just made an amazing play. Doesn't lower the caliber of the team, just the result.
Yeah thats about what I would expect, People are really sleeping on Cline Cline just had arguably the best 3pt shooting year for anyone at Purdue all time, 111 3s on 42% from deep. Not to mention he was easily the best passer on the team. Grady was a starter and a great offensive player even if I think Wheeler probably surpasses him next year there is still the matter of wheelers back up.
I don’t think one-and-done talent equates to a Final Four. I think Painter’s model of “getting old and staying old” gives you a better chance. This year’s FF bears that out. The one and done guys like Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, etc. are all home watching.
A one and done type of talent can certainly help, if you’re able to combine it with skilled, experienced players. But one-and-done guys alone won’t get you there. Hell, Duke has 2 lottery picks and they didn’t make it.
Further evidence: look at last year’s MSU team. The had Bridges (who played two years) and JJJ. Lost in the first round. Look at Romeo...they didn’t even make the tournament.
Those guys will garner a lot of attention, but will they take you to the FF? Not so sure.
I would say this if Carsen returns, we get another 3/4 grad transfer and people are healthy:
99.9% NCAA tournament as a 1-6 seed
99% round of 32
95% sweet 16
55% elite 8
25% final four
15% championship game
8% winning it all
I would see us as 1 of about 8-12 teams that could win it all. If Carsen returns and we get someone to back up Wheeler.
These are very good numbers imo. Similar to what I would have said Villanova was last year.
99.9% NCAA tournament as a 1-6 seed
99% round of 32
95% sweet 16
55% elite 8
25% final four
15% championship game
8% winning it all
I would see us as 1 of about 8-12 teams that could win it all. If Carsen returns and we get someone to back up Wheeler.
These are very good numbers imo. Similar to what I would have said Villanova was last year.
Completely agree. The question is would they be a final four team. That question can mean a number of things but if OP meant do they have the talent to make the final four the answer is obviously yes.
My point is you are looking at this team and not any of our competitors! You believe we will be a better team next year! Is it too hard to believe other teams will also improve over what they were this year as well? When talking about the final 4, that means you are one of the 5 best programs around. I expect Purdue will field a great team. But even this year you had posters saying please don't match us up in that bracket.
I have always been a proponent of not comparing us against our past, but rather when rating our future, compare us to other teams and their future. And I saw nothing above that even attempts to contain any review of any other team. I'm sorry my viewpoints are more nationalistic than homer.
An analogy. The Brewers were 1 pitch and 1 out away from beating the Dodgers last year and going to the World Series. They have everybody back and added a couple of free agents to improve their team. Do you expect them to go to the World Series this year? If you're a Cubs or Cards fan, do you even believe the Brewers will win their division? The Brewers are an improved team, but they may have a hard time even being a wild card team this year! If you're a Brewers fan you believe this will be your year. But if you have a nationalistic viewpoint, you would say they will be a great team, but their window of opportunity was last year.
And that's my viewpoint Purdue will have a great team but the window to the final 4 is very small and even the great teams Duke and gonzaga and UNC didn't make it this year.
And that's my viewpoint Purdue will have a great team but the window to the final 4 is very small and even the great teams Duke and gonzaga and UNC didn't make it this year.
I think we can all agree that no team, no matter how good, is guaranteed a trip to the final four. We get what you're saying.
2 yrs on scholarship was brilliant, good catch. Grady was my boy this year but hey what did everyone say after last year? Losing 4 senior starters they wont do shit. Then start 6-5 this year? This years team blew it out of the water so whos to say it cant happen again? Even without Edwards... if he decides he has unfinished business watch out!! I think Nojel can be the glue next year.
If Carsen returns and can duplicate his tournament performance from this year, then yes we certainly have a good shot at it. We have enough talent if he returns and if Carsen and a few other players get hot, we could do it. Many times the difference between making the final 4 and bowing out early is just having one or two players who start playing lights out. If your team leaders just play to their average; it usually won't be good enough. There has to be a jump in performance. We had a tough draw this year and Carsen's performance still almost got us there. We beat the defending National Champion in impressive fashion and then dispatched a #2 seed who was ranked in the Top 5 for a significant time. Then of course had Virginia on the ropes until the end. A #1 seed and also a Top 5 team for many weeks. Nearly all of our returning players have the opportunity to step up and make strides in their game next year. Eastern, Wheeler, Haarms, Williams, Hunter, Stefanovic, Newman, Dow could all be major contributors next year. All of these guys making a leap and Carsen returning would be huge. If Painter can coach like he did this year and not miss a step by losing Greg Gary we would be in great shape. To say we wouldn't be one of the favorites if Carsen returned is just ignorant! Matchups matter if you aren't good enough - we absolutely would be good enough to beat anybody with Carsen returning.
Im not sure CE is a lock for first round pick.
If he is on that bubble it might be wise to come back and try and duplicate what he did in the tournament all year long.
The last week of the season he put up a clunker what 5 of 31?
If he's a lock then he needs to go as it will be hard to drive that stock any higher. But if teams have him as a 2nd rounder, maybe coming back is a smarter move.
Id love to see him back but i think he's gone. He put on a show for 4 games and people are still talking about him. Hell, i even think the NCAA might be irritated that they get boring old UVA over a potential 40 point CE performance in the Final Four (ok that last bit is a bit Homerish)
If he is on that bubble it might be wise to come back and try and duplicate what he did in the tournament all year long.
The last week of the season he put up a clunker what 5 of 31?
If he's a lock then he needs to go as it will be hard to drive that stock any higher. But if teams have him as a 2nd rounder, maybe coming back is a smarter move.
Id love to see him back but i think he's gone. He put on a show for 4 games and people are still talking about him. Hell, i even think the NCAA might be irritated that they get boring old UVA over a potential 40 point CE performance in the Final Four (ok that last bit is a bit Homerish)
would have been playing Auburn and could have gotten some revenge for that Music City debacle.
Carsen got hot in the tournament. But you are smoking some good stuff if you think Carsen would play like he did in 4 games in the tournament versus an entire 2019-2020 season. Personally I am on the fence on Carsen returning. You have no guarantees what kind of team Purdue will have next season. If Carsen returned great. But his shooting volume would hamper the development of other players.
Matt Painter got caught in a situation in the Virginia game. Carsen was soo hot how can you take the ball out of his hands. But late in the game when Purdue is down 1 pt. Carsen taking 3's is the most advisable play? The way Carsen was shooting maybe it was. But was it the smartest play in a game with the Final 4 on the line? I will always wonder in OT down 1 with less than a minute to go. What if Carsen had drove instead of taking another 3?
. Likely we would be in the FF. But very unlikely that he returns :-( I watched a highlight video of him recently on Instagram and the more you watch it the more you realize he needs to go now because his stock is so high. It’s a business decision as the SmartMoney on here has always said
1. I do not believe that Carsen will come back. I will be very, very surprised if he does come back. If he is projected first round, he should go.
2. Purdue would be a strong candidate for a FF. However, being a strong contender and actually doing it are very different things. Look at Virginia, only a lucky play go them past Purdue. Duke had some very close calls before finally losing. The Tournament has large aspects of randomness that can get you.
Our IU friends love to point out their tournament success but refuse to acknowledge the large part that luck plays in that success. Of course, before promoting someone to General, Napoleon would always ask if that person was lucky. It was a perceived benefit in the decision.
2. Purdue would be a strong candidate for a FF. However, being a strong contender and actually doing it are very different things. Look at Virginia, only a lucky play go them past Purdue. Duke had some very close calls before finally losing. The Tournament has large aspects of randomness that can get you.
Our IU friends love to point out their tournament success but refuse to acknowledge the large part that luck plays in that success. Of course, before promoting someone to General, Napoleon would always ask if that person was lucky. It was a perceived benefit in the decision.
The chance of Carsen returning is probably 10% and that is probably overly optimistic. I think if he did return he would be an even better player than this year and would hopefully improve on his regular season efficiency. I would expect that he would also work on distributing the ball a little more. So I think he could make those around him even better and not hinder the development of others. Carsen has a history of shining thru in big moments, even as a freshman so I think if anyone could duplicate his tourney preformance, he could. I think he has that other gear that he can get to when he is in a zone. If I learned one thing; it is to not underestimate Boogie.
Disagree about the frosh. Which one of those will take Grady's place as the glue?
Not sure I agree. We lose an absolute game changer in CE and a reliable 3 pt shooter in Cline. Where's the scoring going to come from? Other than Wheeler, no one else proved to be a consistent outside shooter.
my thoughts are we lost a player of the year named biggie. The questions were who and how possibly could his stats be replaced ? and yet, we fielded a n even better team the following year. then we said , how can we possibly replace our 4 seniors? We did, and went father in the tourney than they did. I've come to expect Purdue will find a way to win no matter who leaves.
you forgot to mention, we'll also be losing Grady. Who will fill his shoes? I'm certain somebody will step up their game.
But I'll go back to my original thoughts. there is a lot of talk here about how great Purdue would be if Carsen returned. Yet there is absolutely no insight provided about our competitors. I'm confident Purdue will have a great team. but without knowing who will be coming back for other teams, you really can't make a very objective projection. What if all these great players who plan on transferring all transfer to the same school? What if Zion and Barnett decide to stay as well? it could happen. Winston and Ward seem to be coming back. too many unknown variables.
I'm not attempting to make a point that any one single person takes the place of any other one single person. I'm making the case that the addition is greater than the subtraction if CE indeed does return. Don't try to box me in a corner. LOL
Don’t discount the value of experience. Experienced teams have had a good bit of success in the tournament, at the very least recently
I think Purdue would have the talent. Wheeler next year > Grady this year. Sasha is the most likely to replace Cline and I look for him to take a step up. Cline > Sasha, but I think Newman > this year’s Sasha/Hunter so it becomes a push. And Purdue gains Dow as a backup with Williams having another year to slim up and work on his game. Purdue gets more athletic next year. Purdue would likely start the season as a top 10 team and stay in that range. The final four takes luck, sure, but they certainly would have the talent.
As for your other post about Painter losing talent and getting better, that is absolutely correct. I said for a while now I think next year’s team will be better because it will have to be. Nojel is better when he has the freedom to attack and then get the ball to Haarms/Williams. This next year’s team will likely lose 2 guys that shot more threes and any other duo last year. It will rely more on athleticism than in years past. I think Hunter/Sasha/Newman are a significant step down from Carsen, but they are different. Carsen put up a lot of shots, sometimes out of rhythm. But when he was on... it was special. This year’s roster will have a couple years to come together (although I would be surprised if Haarms stays 4 years). So even if there is a step down, I think the talent is there that another elite 8 in the next 2-3 years won’t be a surprise (although it isn’t a given and it will be very difficult). I am happy for the future. But, as they did this year, if Carsen leaves they will horribly underrate Purdue to start the year and they will be lucky to be a top 25 team. Even though Painter has shown how well he develops and replaces talent.
Unrelated, but I am curious what losing another assistant coach will do. I think the next hire needs to be a very good one. Spend a little extra $ and get the right guy.
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