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How many pros on this team?

proudopete

All-American
Jan 26, 2010
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We have all heard the saying that you need future NBA players to win a championship. My question is, are there any pros on this team?

My thoughts are that Colvin seems the most likely but after that I could see Jacobson, Harris and Smith all having shots at a contract.

What are everyone else’s thought on this?
 
Talent wins. Saw that in last year's NCAAT final. Not only from UCONN but from Purdue's Edey.

But with experience, perhaps in the right year, it doesn't have to be NBA level talent, but maybe 2nd tier European/D League talent can be sufficient? Purdue has alot of those types.

And I agree with the above Jacobsen has a great NBA chance.
 
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Talent wins. Saw that in last year's NCAAT final. Not only from UCONN but from Purdue's Edey.

But with experience, perhaps in the right year, it doesn't have to be NBA level talent, but maybe 2nd tier European/D League talent can be sufficient? Purdue has alot of those types.

And I agree with the above Jacobson has a great chance.
I would bump Gicarri to 60%. I think there is a world where he could have an Ivey-like trajectory.

Would also bump Jacobsen to 75%. You can't teach 7'4", and Purdue has a track record with those types.
 
Has a shot Braden Smith, Daniel Jacobsen, Myles Colvin, IMO Smith and Jacobsen are locks. Myles has to show a willingness to play a role.

Long shots TKR, Berg, and Cox. TKR has to have the year Painter has been projecting. Will is 7'2 and Mobile. Cox has the next level speed the NBA loves.

Built for a Euro league career Loyer, Harris, Benter, Burgess and Heide.

Furst will make a fine Doctor and Waddel will make a good coach.
 
My very scientific SWAG at NBA potential:

Jacobsen - 60%
Colvin - 40%
Smith - 20%
Heide - 20%
Harris - 20%
TKR - 5%
Burgess - 5%
Loyer - 5%
Cox - 5%
Benter - 1%
Furst - 0%
Waddell - 0%
Berg - 0%
Depends upon how you define an NBA player. If a guy like Dakota Mathias who has been on active NBA rosters qualifies these numbers are way too low.
 
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Not sure how we can project Jacobsen when he hasn't even faced any college level talent.
Smith: Really good college player, but at 6' (on a good day) and without elite athleticism, I'm not sure how'd he succeed. It'll be interesting to see him play without Edey and how he produces.
Colvin: Hasn't shown much at all to this point to make someone label him with NBA potential.
TKR: 6'9 back to the basket doesn't translate.
Berg is an interesting one. If he can shoot the 3 and run the floor, 7'2 athletic guys who can shoot are hard to find.
 
Not sure how we can project Jacobsen when he hasn't even faced any college level talent.
Smith: Really good college player, but at 6' (on a good day) and without elite athleticism, I'm not sure how'd he succeed. It'll be interesting to see him play without Edey and how he produces.
Colvin: Hasn't shown much at all to this point to make someone label him with NBA potential.
TKR: 6'9 back to the basket doesn't translate.
Berg is an interesting one. If he can shoot the 3 and run the floor, 7'2 athletic guys who can shoot are hard to find.
I feel you’re showing your bias vs smith and Berg here 😂
 
Not sure how we can project Jacobsen when he hasn't even faced any college level talent.
Smith: Really good college player, but at 6' (on a good day) and without elite athleticism, I'm not sure how'd he succeed. It'll be interesting to see him play without Edey and how he produces.
Colvin: Hasn't shown much at all to this point to make someone label him with NBA potential.
TKR: 6'9 back to the basket doesn't translate.
Berg is an interesting one. If he can shoot the 3 and run the floor, 7'2 athletic guys who can shoot are hard to find.
Braden has longer arms than Cassius Winston but agree that he'd really have to find the right situation if CW couldn't make it in the NBA.

Agree on the Jacobsen and others, there's potential there but need to see it on the floor. I don't know what niche TKR would find in the NBA, maybe if he becomes a lights out three-point shooter?
 
Braden has longer arms than Cassius Winston but agree that he'd really have to find the right situation if CW couldn't make it in the NBA.

Agree on the Jacobsen and others, there's potential there but need to see it on the floor. I don't know what niche TKR would find in the NBA, maybe if he becomes a lights out three-point shooter?
smith is going to see a lot more pressure D this year since teams won't need to double team the post like some did with Edey. UConn didn't, and granted, they had elite perimeter guards, but our guards couldn't get an open look or create their own shot. Smith will have to go from facilitator to creator without Edey.
Even if TKR were to start hitting 40% from 3, I don't think he has the athleticism to play on the perimeter in the NBA.
 
Smith as of now just because he's the most proven. Heide probably 2nd most likely. Colvin after that. I don't think Loyer has an shot unless he improves drastically on defense and ball handling. I don't think TKR has any shot unless he gets faster and starts shooting 3s(in the same boat as Malik Reneau is in). It's just difficult to predict. You never would the next Austin Reeves or Max Strus will be. But I think Heide is the most comparable to the Strus. His 3pt shooting will heavily decide that of course. He's got the athleticism.
 
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smith is going to see a lot more pressure D this year since teams won't need to double team the post like some did with Edey. UConn didn't, and granted, they had elite perimeter guards, but our guards couldn't get an open look or create their own shot. Smith will have to go from facilitator to creator without Edey.
Even if TKR were to start hitting 40% from 3, I don't think he has the athleticism to play on the perimeter in the NBA.
I think Smith will be lights out this year (I could be wrong), but I'm not sure how well that translates to the NBA.

Are you talking about TKR shooting 40% in college or in the NBA? When I say 'lights out', I'm talking about shooting 45%+ in college, 40%+ in the NBA. If he can be a Mason Gillis type shooter but 6" taller I think he'd have a chance to find a role.
 
smith is going to see a lot more pressure D this year since teams won't need to double team the post like some did with Edey. UConn didn't, and granted, they had elite perimeter guards, but our guards couldn't get an open look or create their own shot. Smith will have to go from facilitator to creator without Edey.
Even if TKR were to start hitting 40% from 3, I don't think he has the athleticism to play on the perimeter in the NBA.
I think teams will still double the post once they can’t stop TKR/Berg/Jacobsen.

TKR has a lot of athleticism that many haven’t seen yet. Flashes of it last year but in the scrimmage last year, he was a completely different player that I hadn’t seen/didn’t see as much of it during the season last year. Hope that shows up this year.
 
I think Boilerzz has the right approach, in assigning probabilities to each one. From that, you could do a simple addition and division problem to figure out how many NBA players he thinks would be placed, but this also represents uncertainty and accounts for the likelihood that three or four players a little less than likely to make that next level might still produce one that does. I think 2-3 of the below make it.

So tweaking his percentages, here’s my best guess:

Jacobsen - 25% not 60 for me (sorry, got to see something out of him against real competition before I rate a string bean higher, even the 25% is only based on his reputation but I know everyone’s high on him.)
Colvin - 40% maybe about right
Smith - 20% this is too low, especially if Edey has a good year in NBA showing he was undervalued, and Purdue stays competitive this year. I’d say at least 50% someone’s gonna take a chance on him.
Heide - 20% too low - I’d raise to 30/40% around where Colvin is or maybe even a bit higher.
Harris - 20% no comment, don’t know enough about him.
TKR - 5% low. Painter intends to make him a focal point. At this point, I’d give him 20 to 25%, and if he ends up rising to the occasion, it could go up from there.
Burgess - 5% no comment, haven’t seen enough
Loyer - 5% maybe a little low for a great shooter, he has a chance to raise this number with a good season.
Cox - 5% - again not sure
Benter - 1% - same
Furst - 0% raise to 3/5% because there’s an outside chance things could happen that lead him to take an increased role and he has shown early on he can stroke it. If he hits and clicks, don’t count him out.
Waddell - 0% - can’t comment much more because we haven’t seen much out of him.
Berg - 0% - biggest wildcard IMO. Not sure what the correct percent should be in my mind but it’s a lot higher than zero. He might have unshown potential and it wouldn’t surprise me if he plays starter minutes by the end of the season.
 
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I said Jacobson would start as a freshman and force tkr to stay at the 4. So I have to keep my beliefs and say he has nba potential.

As for his competition, he didn’t just play in that world championship, he dominated it. So I believe those who say he hasn’t played tough competition yet may be a tad surprised

Smith may get drafted in the second round by a team like the pacers if he makes all American.


A lot of posters like Heide, Myles and Harris. All three players will be given the chance to play the 3 this year. If they don’t shine this year, I doubt they ever will.
 
A lot of posters like Heide, Myles and Harris. All three players will be given the chance to play the 3 this year. If they don’t shine this year, I doubt they ever will.
Depends upon what you mean by ‘shine’. Harris is a true freshman. All are underclassmen and all are likely to be at best the fourth scoring option.

Vince Edwards was was always good, but was never really the top guy until his senior year when he responded by being the second best player in the Big Ten. Zach was considered to be a borderline all conference pick heading into his junior year, well behind guys like Hunter Dickinson and Trayce Jackson Davis.

Some fans weren’t intelligent or imaginative enough to be able to envision redshirting having a benefit for Purdue because it hadn’t worked out yet, until it did. We’re at the stage as a program where some guys have to wait their turn to be featured. It doesn’t mean that they can’t be great players, just because they haven’t yet had the opportunity.
 
Has a shot Braden Smith, Daniel Jacobsen, Myles Colvin, IMO Smith and Jacobsen are locks. Myles has to show a willingness to play a role.

Long shots TKR, Berg, and Cox. TKR has to have the year Painter has been projecting. Will is 7'2 and Mobile. Cox has the next level speed the NBA loves.

Built for a Euro league career Loyer, Harris, Benter, Burgess and Heide.

Furst will make a fine Doctor and Waddel will make a good coach.
Good conversation. Re: Loyer, can a fair comparison of his NBA potential road be similar to Duncan Robinson? Undrafted, 6’7”, shooter; G-league 1 year, then NBA contributor with the Heat since 2019. If Fletch can have a couple years of improvement in shooting %, defense and improved strength, I can see him getting a decent chance.
 
I think Boilerzz has the right approach, in assigning probabilities to each one. From that, you could do a simple addition and division problem to figure out how many NBA players he thinks would be placed, but this also represents uncertainty and accounts for the likelihood that three or four players a little less than likely to make that next level might still produce one that does. I think 2-3 of the below make it.

So tweaking his percentages, here’s my best guess:

Jacobsen - 25% not 60 for me (sorry, got to see something out of him against real competition before I rate a string bean higher, even the 25% is only based on his reputation but I know everyone’s high on him.)
Colvin - 40% maybe about right
Smith - 20% this is too low, especially if Edey has a good year in NBA showing he was undervalued, and Purdue stays competitive this year. I’d say at least 50% someone’s gonna take a chance on him.
Heide - 20% too low - I’d raise to 30/40% around where Colvin is or maybe even a bit higher.
Harris - 20% no comment, don’t know enough about him.
TKR - 5% low. Painter intends to make him a focal point. At this point, I’d give him 20 to 25%, and if he ends up rising to the occasion, it could go up from there.
Burgess - 5% no comment, haven’t seen enough
Loyer - 5% maybe a little low for a great shooter, he has a chance to raise this number with a good season.
Cox - 5% - again not sure
Benter - 1% - same
Furst - 0% raise to 3/5% because there’s an outside chance things could happen that lead him to take an increased role and he has shown early on he can stroke it. If he hits and clicks, don’t count him out.
Waddell - 0% - can’t comment much more because we haven’t seen much out of him.
Berg - 0% - biggest wildcard IMO. Not sure what the correct percent should be in my mind but it’s a lot higher than zero. He might have unshown potential and it wouldn’t surprise me if he plays starter minutes by the end of the season.
The Pacers just re-signed 32 y/o fan favorite, 3d string pg TJ McConnell to a 40M deal backing up Haliburton and Nembhard (arugably). Braden is every bit the passer and a way better shooter. I'd call it a match on toughness with TJ maybe a bit better defender at this point. Energizer bunny for sure.
Point being, if a team values TJ that much to pay him 10M per till he's 36(!) there is sure as hell a spot in the league for Braden Smith. Probably right now if he was in camp with an NBA team this year.
The NBA is full of immensely athletic and varyingly talented young men.
What there is NOT a ton of is true pg's with the ability to run a team and not just score.
To be an extension of the coaches philosophy and ideals on the floor and to push his team to be the best that it can be.
That is what a true pg does and what Braden does exceedingly well to this point considering he was a soph last season leading one of the top 3 teams in the country.
Some here (and elsewhere) are jaded as to his and Zach's level of talent and true value in the world of hoops.
Braden may or may not be an NBA starter (+50% to me), but he'll have a long and lucrative career barring misfortune.
 
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Good conversation. Re: Loyer, can a fair comparison of his NBA potential road be similar to Duncan Robinson? Undrafted, 6’7”, shooter; G-league 1 year, then NBA contributor with the Heat since 2019. If Fletch can have a couple years of improvement in shooting %, defense and improved strength, I can see him getting a decent chance.
I don't think Fletch has enough fast twitch to play in the NBA. He's essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter, which there are tons of. And, he benefited from having the 2 time NPOY in the post, which created a lot of open looks for him.
 
I don't think Fletch has enough fast twitch to play in the NBA. He's essentially a spot up 3 pt shooter, which there are tons of. And, he benefited from having the 2 time NPOY in the post, which created a lot of open looks for him.
He needs to show that he can defend better than he has and be an elite, elite, shooter. I'm not sure whether he can do that or not.
 
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