Many things “could happen”, but if Russia were to take that step against Finland and/or Sweden, you know that we literally would be in the opening salvos of WW III. I just don’t think Putin is that callous or reckless.
Right, that is exactly what is on the line right here: WW III, and a ground war could easily get out of hand and go nuclear. The cowardly but prudent thing to do at this juncture is for NATO to reject Finland and Sweden as NATO members and maintain the status quo that has been in place for decades, often called 'Finlandization'.
Will Russia invade Finland? Why country is not in Nato and what it means amid Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia has directly warned both Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, threatening military action
By
Alex Finnis
Reporter
March 3, 2022 4:44 pm
What are Vladimir Putin’s true intentions? This is the questions people across the world are asking, as his Russian forces continue pepper Ukraine with missiles.
Very few people on the planet know the answer.
There are fears President Putin may not stop at Ukraine, should he succeed. He may attempt to expand his empire into neighbouring countries such as Moldova and Georgia. Even the Baltic states, despite being Nato members, cannot be ruled out.
Another potential target is Finland,
which shares an 830-mile border and already fought with Russia less than a century ago, during the Winter War.
What are the chances of Russia invading Finland? Here is what we know.
Could Russia invade Finland?
Russia has directly
warned both Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, threatening military action.
Ukraine’s ambitions to join the Western alliance have been a huge touchpoint in Russia’s invasion.
“Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to Nato can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences,” foreign affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova said during a news briefing.
The Russian Foreign Ministry added on Twitter: “We regard the Finnish Government’s commitment to a military non-alignment policy as an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe.
“Finland’s accession to Nato would have serious military and political repercussions.”
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at London-based think-tank Chatham House, said President Putin’s aim of “reversing history and going back to Russia’s status as it was over 100 years ago also directly affects other neighbours”.
“This means Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland.”
Finland, like Ukraine, is not part of Nato. It is,
however, part of the EU.
The EU has a mutual defence clause for any member nation that is “victim of armed aggression on its territory”.
This means if Russia were to invade Finland, it could find itself at war with all 27 EU member states, which could then engage Russian forces directly.
Why is Finland not in Nato?
Of the 27
EU members, Finland is one of just six that is not also a member of Nato.
The other five are Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, Malta and Sweden.
Finland does have relations with Nato, but up until now has believed it does not need Nato membership to remain secure.
The Russian-Finnish
Winter War that took place from 1939 to 1940 created a strong belief of military prowess for Finland. Finland also makes adolescent males report for a short and intense period of military training, meaning it has a large and capable citizen military reserve.
However, Russia’s actions may be driving Finland towards Nato membership.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto has stressed: “Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also includes the possibility of military alignment and of applying for Nato membership, should we ourselves so decide.”
While the country’s Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, has said “at this rate, we have no other option but to join”.
A recent public poll has suggested the majority of the population also now supports Nato membership.
Are Nato members under threat from Russia?
Karin von Hippel, who was a nonpolitical senior adviser at the US State Department during the Obama administration, told
NBC President Putin could potentially target non-Nato nations in Eastern Europe,
such as Moldova and Georgia.
He added that if the Russian leader “starts to slowly expand his empire, there will be several other places that are in Nato that are going to be getting extremely stressed out”.
“It’s very unclear at this stage that anyone can convince Putin to do anything other than what he wants to do,” he said.
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said Britain will join its Baltic allies in moving from “deterrence to defence” on its borders.
Speaking at a press conference in Lithuania, she said: “The UK’s commitment to the Baltics and to Article 5 are unyielding.”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all part of Nato.
Nato uses a principle of collective defence under Article 5 of its treaty. It means an attack against one Nato member is considered an attack against all.
“We are reinforcing Nato’s eastern flank and supporting European security through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force,” Ms Truss added.
“We are here in the Baltic region. We lead and have doubled our enhanced forward presence in Estonia. Our allies are leading troops across the Baltics.
“At the Nato foreign ministry meeting tomorrow (Friday) we will be working together to strengthen our collective defensive in light of the changed security situation across Europe.”
The Foreign Secretary echoed comments made by Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who said it is vital the Baltic states move from “deterrence to defence”.
“This is why we need a change in political approach,” he said.
“We also need practical means for that and they are needed for all three Baltic states.
“So that if Putin decides to test Nato resistance in this region it would be responded right way.
“It would get a political response and also a clear defensive response, if that would be needed.”
The comments imply that if Russia were to attempt to annex any of the Baltic states, Nato would respond with full military might, plunging the West into a war with Russia.
