What the hell does any of that have to do with a potential invasion of Finland by Russia in 2022?
Here, read your own words: "We should hope Putin is dumb enough to invade Finland. Good gracious what a quagmire that would be for him with that terrain and nearly the entire male population with military training."
There have been two Finnish-Russian wars and Finland lost both of them. But more to the point. Russia invaded Ukraine because they were moving toward NATO membership. Finland is doing exactly the same thing. Don't miss this line in the following article: "In a stark threat, Russia last week warned them (Finland) not to join NATO."
Finland’s Drift Toward NATO Membership Accelerated by Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
Poll shows majority of Finns favor joining the Western defense alliance, preferably in lockstep with Sweden
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin called the country's decision to send weapons to Ukraine historic.
PHOTO: LEHTIKUVA/VIA REUTERS
By
Sune Engel Rasmussen Wall Street Journal March 1, 2022
Finnish political parties gathered Tuesday to discuss joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a first step to possibly ending the Nordic nation’s decadeslong nonaligned status and another sign of the
tectonic shifts in Europe’s security landscape prompted by
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The parliamentary debate followed a decision Monday to send military aid to Ukraine, breaking with a longstanding Finnish policy of not sending weapons to war zones. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin at a news conference Monday called the decision historic.
Watching 200,000 Russian troops amass on the border with Ukraine, a country with eight times the population of Finland, unsettled many in the Nordic country, which was a part of Russia until 1917 and was invaded by half a million Soviet troops in 1939.
Finland shares the European Union’s longest border with Russia, a key factor in its decision not to antagonize Moscow by joining NATO.
"People’s opinions are changing, it’s understandable. Russia has attacked Ukraine and of course, that’s a lot for the Finns to think about,” Ms. Marin said heading into the meeting Tuesday, according to the Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat.
Public support among Finns for NATO membership has been growing. A petition to hold a referendum on joining the alliance has garnered the 50,000 signatures needed to have the proposal considered by Parliament.
Demonstrators waved Ukrainian flags during a rally to support Ukraine in Helsinki on Saturday.
PHOTO: JUSSI NUKARI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
A poll released Monday by the Finnish Broadcasting Company showed that for the first time a majority of Finns, about 53%, supported joining the alliance, up from 19% in 2017. A full 66% would support NATO membership if neighboring Sweden, which has also long maintained a nonaligned status, joins at the same time.
If Finland were to join NATO, it would prefer to do so in tandem with Sweden, its Scandinavian neighbor to the west. The two countries already cooperate deeply on defense matters, which could become more complicated if one of them decided to join the alliance without the other.
In a stark threat, Russia last week warned them not to join NATO.
“It is obvious that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, which is primarily a military organization, this would have serious military and political consequences that would compel the Russian Federation to take retaliatory steps,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last week.
Finland and Sweden nevertheless participated in an emergency NATO meeting last week where they were offered increased, mutual exchange of intelligence and information about security operations.
“Finns have traditionally put an emphasis on assuring Russia that they don’t want to be a springboard for any hostile activity,” said Matti Pesu, an expert on Finnish and Euro-Atlantic security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “NATO membership has been seen as a disruptive factor.”
Russia Hits Central Square of Kharkiv as Convoy Advances on Kyiv
Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv came under heavy shelling; a nearly 40-mile-long Russian convoy inched closer to Kyiv; President Zelensky addressed the European Parliament. Photo: Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
The end of the Cold War and the dissipation of the immediate threat of armed conflict allowed Finland to cooperate more closely with NATO without rescinding its neutral stance, for instance by sending troops to Afghanistan to assist with the alliance’s intervention after 2001. Finland also has deep ties to Western countries in part because a large part of its weapons arsenal consists of U.S.- and European-made equipment.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Helsinki to take even more significant steps away from neutrality.
Despite its policy of not sending weapons into war zones, Finland announced Monday it would send 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 bullets, 1,500 antitank weapons along with 70,000 food packages to Ukraine. The shipment is planned to go via Poland on Wednesday, Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen said.
Germany, which has been similarly reluctant to deliver arms into war zones, also has agreed to equip Ukraine and
committed to spend far more on defense.
In a sign Finland is distancing itself from Russia beyond immediate defense matters, the country closed its airspaces to Russian planes,
along with many others, including the Scandinavian and Baltic countries. Helsinki also called for
tough EU sanctions on Moscow, “even if that would result in countermeasures by Russia,” Ms. Marin said last week.
Finland’s economy minister, Mika Lintila, has said his government wouldn’t grant a construction permit for a Russian-backed nuclear project called Fennovoima Oy, which had been expected later this year.
“For the first time in Finland’s post-Cold War history, many pieces are moving,” Mr. Pesu said. “We don’t know yet where Finland is going to land.”
A Finnish NATO membership is unlikely to happen immediately, as the country’s political parties are still overwhelmingly against it. Joining the alliance requires a referendum, which political parties may not want to take on before the next parliamentary election scheduled for April 2023, experts say.
But as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, public pressure to reconsider the country’s international stance is likely to grow too.
“At this rate we have no other option but to join [NATO],” former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said on Twitter last week. “Finland’s accession would strengthen the Alliance and help keep Northern Europe stable.”
