Basically, after a decision is leaked and becomes public knowledge, the final switches are typically accurate.
However, all of the noise before those final switches are complete guessing games.
Cliff Notes: Lolcrystal ball
Crystal Ball isnt accurate and data shows that
- Thread starter Mgkcbb
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Basically, after a decision is leaked and becomes public knowledge, the final switches are typically accurate.
However, all of the noise before those final switches are complete guessing games.
Cliff Notes: Lolcrystal ball
Pretty much what I've observed. The predictions are usually baseless until right before the decision. And when in doubt just set your predictions to whoever is going to provide you clicks until you hear otherwise.
Interesting that somebody actually analyzed this. A few of us have been saying "Don't pay attention to them" for awhile.
Like the weather....they might know a day or two out. But weeks out most times...they have no idea....
As I reflect back on my life - I should have been a meteorologist. Only job where you can be wrong >50% of the time and have job security.
It's especially useless when certain schools' writers start making predictions. It seems some people think the crystal ball is their Amazon wishlist.
Actuary, by the time they realize you were wrong, you are retired.
Have to understand, the people making these predictions are in a running long competition against one another. They aren't trying to be Nostradamus. The further out you make a prediction, the more points you get for every correct pick. There's no penalty for an incorrect pick and you can change your prediction at any time, that's why you see so many people predicting as early as possible because if your initial pick is correct, the more points you get.
I don't believe any of these guys doing these predictions are doing it on the idea that it somehow gives them credibility, rather they are doing it because it's harmless fun and a friendly competition between people who contribute to 247. Have never once though any of these guys should have their credibility questioned based on a fun practice and don't understand why people get so worked up over it?
I don't believe any of these guys doing these predictions are doing it on the idea that it somehow gives them credibility, rather they are doing it because it's harmless fun and a friendly competition between people who contribute to 247. Have never once though any of these guys should have their credibility questioned based on a fun practice and don't understand why people get so worked up over it?
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