It is a most difficult question with probably the most difficult answer in the history of our country. Appreciate your candid response.A VERY tough question, as I am sure you realize.
I don't think they can open it until they get "some" pockets of containment. (ie new cases in an area down significantly - like 85%) Given their undisciplined approach, I believe our President will eventually just force it open and we will see a 2nd wave that could be just as bad.
IF they are smart, they will try to open it slowly, a few businesses at a time and will create a team of "process" experts to help each business open. They will need to sanitize the environment (remember the cruise ship that still had live virus on surfaces after 2 weeks?), change operating procedures, etc.. to maintain social distancing, minimize viral transfer and potentially address ventilation issues. I also do not see how they can do it before we have surgical masks for each of the workers and quick testing available to each community. If we do, we will be playing Russian roulette.
Believe me when I say this . . I know this kind of approach sounds CRAZY to people, but my rebuttal is . . . how else will you know that people walking through the front door don't have the virus and can't spread it?? It's QUITE contagiuous. It "IS" first and foremost an issue of detection/testing, containment and process controls. We didn't focus on these 3 areas the first time, so without divine intervention or a vaccine, it won't work the 2nd time unless we do.
We have to start "thinking" in terms of Ebola - this thing will mutate and "could" be more deadlier. We have to get "ahead" of the crisis and start planning proactively on what "could' come next versus reacting to things.
I will also add an element of "change management" into the discussion. People need to realize that the general public will only give you a few chances to get it right before some will panic and start taking things into their own hands. If violence happens, everything gets worse.
I also know from years of change management training that it is exponentially more difficult to do things the 2nd or 3rd time if you fail the first time. Think about that. What will people do if they no longer believe anything they are told.
No matter what decision is made it will be questioned by half the country. Only time will tell if it was the correct decision. Even then many will debate it as most certainly after the country is opened up more cases and deaths will occur.
Many will question the economy as being destroyed versus others with potential loss of life. One pitted against the other is a no win for the decision maker. I have no idea as of today what is a correct answer.