Advanced Metrics on What Wins Football Games

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

The title of this thread was a tease. There's only one metric that determines winning & losing: coaching. There may not be a better team in college football that proves this more than Purdue. Let's take at the the "Tiller Effect":

- Purdue had a losing record in each of the 12 seasons before Tiller
- Purdue has had a losing record in 5 of the 6 seasons after Tiller left
- Purdue did not have a losing record in any of Tiller's first 8 years
- Purdue only had 2 losing seasons in Tiller's 12 year
- Of the six 8+ win seasons for Purdue in the last 35 years, all came under Tiller

The key tell here is that Tiller won in his very 1st season at Purdue with losing talent. You might be old and argumentative and thinking, "Ya, well, he could've brought in really good players in that 1st recruiting class." You're right, he did bring in really good players. Legends like Brees, Ayodele, and Stratton. Except not one of those legends actually played during that first 9-3 season under Tiller.

Just one more bit of evidence that coaching is the only thing that matters. The combined record of the 4 teams that Urban Meyer has coached for the year before he got there is 20 wins and 27 losses. The combined record of the 4 teams that Urban has coached in their 1st year under him is 39 wins and 8 losses.

Darrell Hazell is not a great coach. I'm not saying he can't ever have a winning season. But a great coach can win every year, with any talent, in any league. It takes a great coach to be a consistently great program. There are no exceptions.

 

[R5D4]

I agree.

Even at universities where football is a top priority like Notre Dame they go through periods of bad coaches. At places like Purdue where it's not a priority there are anomalies like Tiller.

 

[FiveWeight]

Nice analysis - that is telling.

 

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

I agree.

Even at universities where football is a top priority like Notre Dame they go through periods of bad coaches. At places like Purdue where it's not a priority there are anomalies like Tiller.

Thank you for reinforcing my point even more. If you give a tradition-rich program like USC or Alabama a great coach like Pete Carroll or Nick Saban and they're in the National Championship conversation every year. You put a dumbass like Lane Kiffin at that same school, with elite athletes left over from the previous great coach, and they're average at best.

 

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

Stories of Coaching Legend: In Urban Meyer's 2nd coaching stint, he took over a Utah team that had a losing record the year before. In Urban's 2nd game, his Utes traveled to Texas A &M, home of the 12th Man & one of the hardest places to play in the country. In this hostile environment, Utah scores 2 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes, the last one with just 8 seconds left to cut the lead to 28-26. On the 2-point conversion attempt, Utah's quarterback sprinted to the right and dove for the endzone. He was stopped just inches short and was injured. Utah had to play the rest of their season with a backup quarterback. They went 9-1. Sound familiar?

That is a great coach. When he loses, it's by a couple inches, not a couple scores. Even if you injure his most important player, he'll still win every game. Darrell Hazell is not a great coach.

 

[boilermaker75]

I can't think of any other sport where coaching is such a large factor as in football.

 

[PBoiler84]

I agree. It's the $2.2M a year guy's job to figure out how to get the most out of the players he has on the field. You don't pare down the plays and go to your weakness (run game) - you work on new plays that can work. Even if some of them are trick or gimmicky plays. Danny Hope used to run that inside slant pass a lot on 3rd and 5-6 yds - was it predictable? Heck yes, but did it work a fair number of times? Yes. Tiller knew what he had to do and that was spread the offense out to try to gain whatever advantage he could get. He used the pass to set up the run and it worked. Hazell seems more determined to force his system onto players that don't fit. Square peg in a round hole.

 

[02Boilermaker]

Another stat that kind of piggy-backs on this premise...14 of the last 15 national championship coaches won a title at his school within his first 4 seasons at the helm (Mack Brown at Texas was the exception). It doesn't take long to get things done & produce results.

Ironically, this idea is one of the reasons Hazell was seen as an attractive hire. Before Hazell's tenure, Kent St finished with a winning record only 2 times since the 70s ('87 & '01) & hadn't been to a bowl game since 1972. It only took Hazell two seasons to produce an 11-win team...only 2 of those wins were close (7 pts or less)...the only regular season loss was on the road at an SEC school (Kentucky)...a team that was a double overtime loss away from a BCS bowl game. It was a quick turnaround success story. I wish whatever he did at Kent St could have translated here to Purdue, but it hasn't. I don't know if he's a good HC or not, but it doesn't appear he's going to be a good HC for Purdue.

 

[Redhotfill]

I agree. It's the $2.2M a year guy's job to figure out how to get the most out of the players he has on the field. You don't pare down the plays and go to your weakness (run game) - you work on new plays that can work. Even if some of them are trick or gimmicky plays. Danny Hope used to run that inside slant pass a lot on 3rd and 5-6 yds - was it predictable? Heck yes, but did it work a fair number of times? Yes. Tiller knew what he had to do and that was spread the offense out to try to gain whatever advantage he could get. He used the pass to set up the run and it worked. Hazell seems more determined to force his system onto players that don't fit. Square peg in a round hole.

 

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

Does anyone want to know how Darrell Hazell got Kent State into the Top 25? This is literally the only reason. Having an unrivaled knowledge of football, I was able to spot and suspect this before Hazell even coached a down at Purdue.

In 2012, Kent State had a player named Dri Archer. That year, he led Kent State in:

- Rushing yards
- Yards per rush (9.0 led the NCAA by over a full yard per rush)
- Rushing touchdowns
- Receptions
- Receiving yards
- Receiving touchdowns
- Return yards
- Kick return average (36.9 the MAC all-time record)
- Return touchdowns (3)

How much of an athletic freak was Archer? At the NFL combine he posted the 2nd fastest 40-yard dash ever behind Chris Johnson. He also tied Calvin Johnson's record for fewest steps to get to 40 yards.

How does a bad coach take a mid-major into the Top 25? Give him a player, a player that he didn't even recruit, that is one of the greatest athletes in history. Too bad Purdue's AD doesn't share my knowledge of football. He could've just taken the easier route and seen that Hazell had a losing record the year before. A great coach would never have a losing record in the MAC. It's a conference where your competition is not only average players, but average coaches, too. Darrell Hazell is not a great coach.

 

[Redhotfill]

Does anyone want to know how Darrell Hazell got Kent State into the Top 25? This is literally the only reason. Having an unrivaled knowledge of football, I was able to spot and suspect this before Hazell even coached a down at Purdue.

In 2012, Kent State had a player named Dri Archer. That year, he led Kent State in:

- Rushing yards
- Yards per rush (9.0 led the NCAA by over a full yard per rush)
- Rushing touchdowns
- Receptions
- Receiving yards
- Receiving touchdowns
- Return yards
- Kick return average (36.9 the MAC all-time record)
- Return touchdowns (3)

How much of an athletic freak was Archer? At the NFL combine he posted the 2nd fastest 40-yard dash ever behind Chris Johnson. He also tied Calvin Johnson's record for fewest steps to get to 40 yards.

How does a bad coach take a mid-major into the Top 25? Give him a player, a player that he didn't even recruit, that is one of the greatest athletes in history. Too bad Purdue's AD doesn't share my knowledge of football. He could've just taken the easier route and seen that Hazell had a losing record the year before. A great coach would never have a losing record in the MAC. It's a conference where your competition is not only average players, but average coaches, too. Darrell Hazell is not a great coach.

Well that explains everything!! Including this continually run the ball crap, he was so used that that Archer guy pounding the ball for 9 yards a pop he thinks anyone can do it! So clueless.

 

[Grover]

Does anyone want to know how Darrell Hazell got Kent State into the Top 25? This is literally the only reason. Having an unrivaled knowledge of football, I was able to spot and suspect this before Hazell even coached a down at Purdue.

In 2012, Kent State had a player named Dri Archer. That year, he led Kent State in:

- Rushing yards
- Yards per rush (9.0 led the NCAA by over a full yard per rush)
- Rushing touchdowns
- Receptions
- Receiving yards
- Receiving touchdowns
- Return yards
- Kick return average (36.9 the MAC all-time record)
- Return touchdowns (3)

How much of an athletic freak was Archer? At the NFL combine he posted the 2nd fastest 40-yard dash ever behind Chris Johnson. He also tied Calvin Johnson's record for fewest steps to get to 40 yards.

How does a bad coach take a mid-major into the Top 25? Give him a player, a player that he didn't even recruit, that is one of the greatest athletes in history. Too bad Purdue's AD doesn't share my knowledge of football. He could've just taken the easier route and seen that Hazell had a losing record the year before. A great coach would never have a losing record in the MAC. It's a conference where your competition is not only average players, but average coaches, too. Darrell Hazell is not a great coach.

That's amazing. No wonder Kent did so well after Hazell left, that Archer dude was a Senior and could easily carry them to whatever bowl game they went to...

 

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

That's amazing. No wonder Kent did so well after Hazell left, that Archer dude was a Senior and could easily carry them to whatever bowl game they went to...

Dri Archer's Senior year at Kent State year after Hazell left was plagued by injury, including missing 2 games completely. Plus, Hazell had the huge benefit of having a Senior 4-year starter at quarterback during his one winning season. Kent State had to start a Freshman at QB the following year. Good job pretending to know something about football, Grover. Stick to letters and numbers.

 

[Grover]

Dri Archer's Senior year at Kent State year after Hazell left was plagued by injury, including missing 2 games completely. Plus, Hazell had the huge benefit of having a Senior 4-year starter at quarterback during his one winning season. Kent State had to start a Freshman at QB the following year. Good job pretending to know something about football, Grover. Stick to letters and numbers.

Hey, I never claimed to have your wealth of football knowledge. I'm just a fan of the Boilers here, not Kent.

If I was as dumb as you claim, I'd probably say something stupid like "literally the only reason" in one post and then in the very next post explain that a four star Sr QB provided a huge benefit...

 

[R5D4]

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Where can we get one of these Dri Archers you speak of.

I think the Purdue team could use 2 or 3.

 

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

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Where can we get one of these Dri Archers you speak of.

I think the Purdue team could use 2 or 3.

Purdue has had one in Vinny Sutherland.