Had Fletch entered the portal, he wouldn't have lasted a day and would now be making a lot more money for a contender. His shooting and overall play would dictate it.
9 man rotation prediction with minutes
- Thread starter BoilerDaddy
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More facts than opinion really. Start with the facts that 1) Fletch played at an all-conference level last season, making HM on low volume as a (distant) third scoring option, 2) the offense next season will continue to start and end with Braden and Trey, and everyone else's job is to fit in around them 3) MP has on multiple occasions said that Fletch does exactly what he's asked to do on offense, drawing attention from Trey and Braden, making good decisions, hitting open shots.
Your argument then becomes that you'll have two players who come in and perform at an all-league level while complementing Braden and Trey better than Fletch. It's just not going to happen. The only real example of a player like Fletch seeing his minutes materially reduced was Trevion, who was pushed out by a future two-time NPOY and top ten draft pick. Even if a guy like that is on the roster, you'd need two of those guys to get Fletch below 25 minutes, as Zach and Trevion couldn't play together, but Fletch can play with Braden and any of the other guards.
How is that responsive to anything anyone has said lol you're so out of balance with Loyer. If someone says he might play 29 minutes you take it as a personal insult to your family.
I highly doubt he'd be making a lot more money than he's making now.
We have Smith, Loyer, Mayer, Harris, Benter, Cox and the kid we brought in who's name escapes me who are competing for 120 minutes at three spots. Because none of them are playing the 4 or 5 and we aren't playing four guards.
So yeah both Smith and Loyer are probably seeing their minutes reduced. Because Cox is getting 20. Mayer could get 15. Harris is getting at least 10. Benter is playing. The transfer wing is playing. Math is math. We have more options now so the ones that are hot, whether that's Loyer or Mayer or Cox or Whomever are going to have minutes go up and others who aren't playing that well that game, again whomever it is, won't get as many minutes that game.
So yeah some game Loyer will play 35, bc he's on, and some games he won't bc Mayer is on a tear or Cox is having a game or whatever.
The whole point of improving the way we have is to add versatility not lock things into one path. If Mayer can handle backup ball handling than Smith too will see his minutes drop not because he isn't the best PG in the country but because the dropoff isn't as steep now so we can keep him more rested for the tournament.
Exactly! It’s a fluid situation. If you can rest your players without a big drop off you might be considered poorly managing if not doing so. If they’re on a heater then you likely take them out less. Resting top players is not a bad thing and if they’re other players are contributing and not costing your team you also create an adjustment for the opponent to deal with. I just think making an absolute statement about Fletch’s PT at this point is hard to pin down with all of the possible contributors with different skill sets and abilities to offer is just a crap shoot.
We all know he’s good and what he offers. I am pretty sure we all think he’s gonna start. What I feel like we should be able to agree on is that his PT might just vary game to game and I believe the average will be reduced from last year. The talent of Cox, Harris, Mayer (I don’t think he signs without having an assessment from painter saying he’s got a decent chance of seeing the floor some this year, no guarantee), Benter (painter has been very positive when talking about him), West offers a lot of depth and options to throw at opponents. I hope we can play both fletch and Smith a bit less this year because that means our talent and depth can be trusted giving us a better team that’s more difficult for opponents to deal with.
I agree that if Braden and Fletcher can see their load reduced somewhat, that’s a good thing, but Braden is likely to still play close to 35 mpg (min 33) and Trey and Fletch close to 30 (min 28).
I think your arguement on minute distribution likely has merit, but IMO that looks like Fletch or Trey playing 35 minutes in a close game when they’re playing well and 27 minutes in a game where someone else is on a tear or it’s a blowout. It’s always possible I’m wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time, but I’d wager I’m pretty close on this one.
Painter is 100% an idiot if Fletcher averages 22 mpg 🤩 Facts. Book it.
Another, albeit minor factor, is Painter does have to think about the near future. He loses Loyer, Smith and TKR next season. He probably wouldn't mind it if some of these younger players can get meaningful minutes this season (while of course making winning a championship by far the primary goal).
Fletch and Braden have started together in every.single.game! The only way I see Fletch not starting is if he is injured and let's hope that doesn't happen.
He might start and only play 5 minutes (really doubtful) but I can't imagine Painter breaking that backcourt starting streak without an extreme circumstance.
How many minutes each player gets is not only going to be determined by who is practicing well and who is hot, but nobody had mentioned matchups.
Matchups will be key to minutes with our depth. A team without a true center will see lots of TKR and Cluff. A team with two 7 footers might see a 4 guard lineup to run circles around them and pop 3's they can't guard.
Who knows what will happen, we are the most stable team in college basketball and with at least 3 returning starters (likely 4) we still have no idea how this will play out.
In Painter we trust. He's earned it.
He might start and only play 5 minutes (really doubtful) but I can't imagine Painter breaking that backcourt starting streak without an extreme circumstance.
How many minutes each player gets is not only going to be determined by who is practicing well and who is hot, but nobody had mentioned matchups.
Matchups will be key to minutes with our depth. A team without a true center will see lots of TKR and Cluff. A team with two 7 footers might see a 4 guard lineup to run circles around them and pop 3's they can't guard.
Who knows what will happen, we are the most stable team in college basketball and with at least 3 returning starters (likely 4) we still have no idea how this will play out.
In Painter we trust. He's earned it.
I really can’t envision a situation where Fletch doesn’t start either. If that happens then someone else has elevated their game to a level that will elevate the play and potential of the team and FF/NC chances!
No one here has said Fletch shouldn't start
No one here said don't trust Painter
I frankly doubt Smith’s minutes will lessen much this season, due to him being very good and the career records he will be chasing.
Fletch played 30.9 mpg last year. He played more than 36 minutes in 2 games and both were losses, one the big upset vs OSU and he played 36 in the upset vs Michigan. With Mayer alone he will lose minutes. Eric Hunter saw his minutes decrease from 30.6 his junior year to 25.8 his senior year and didn’t start all games despite starting the two prior seasons. Trevion, Newman, and It lost starts too. We had Jaden Ivey and too many good players and everyone was healthy. I see the same next year. I think fletch starts but if cox gets the jump like Ivey got he won’t sit and if Mayer is as good as advertised he could even take fletch’s starts. It’s not a bad problem to have. No one would ever have dreamed Trevion would play off the bench that year.
I think you have to start Fletch simply because if he's in big game mode you want to maximize that time.
If he doesn't have it then you can see if Mayer or Cox or Harris is more on that game and adjust minutes accordingly for that game.
It’s not comparing them as players but the situation. EHJ played a lot of minutes due to a lack of quality minutes. The quality was enhanced EHJ’s senior year with Ivey blowing up, Ethan Morton getting healthy, and IT improving. Same as next season with cox and Harris making the sophomore jump, Mayer, and Benter plus TKR playing a lot of 4, which essentially negates significant minutes that would be opened up by Heide leaving. We basically get Colvins 18 minutes back to split amongst Benter and Mayer. I just don’t see how Cox and Harris will lose much minutes from 19 and 15 and I don’t see Braden losing more than a few minutes a game. That’s why I see the 120 guard minutes looking like
Braden - 35
Fletch - 25
Mayer - 20
Cox - 20
Harris - 15
Benter - 5
I think West redshirts.
Also Benter might get more than 5 if he gets a chance to play 4 if we go really small. But I see Murphy filling that role more.
It’s an awful comparison. Fletch’s minutes may go down slightly if we have a lot of comfortable leads with five minutes to go to get him rest and to get run for guys like Benter. Hunter played fewer minutes because he was just an ok player.
I won’t repeat myself in detail from my previous post, but if you look at the facts you’d need to have two of the younger backcourt guys performing at an all conference level and complimenting Braden and Tre better than Fletch to even think about Fletch ‘losing’ minutes.
Mostly because he didn't have a 3 that was as good.
If he hasn't shown his love of size to you YET, I don't know what to tell you.
Would love Fletch to be even more aggressive from 3. Last year he passed up a lot of shots trying to be a team player but he was and probably will be the best option. 44% from 3 => 66% from 2 which is winning most basketball games
. Even if he drops to 40% that still equates to 60% from 2. Like more 3s from those who are capable.The problem for the younger pups, that the schedule is really tough and Paint is going to have a rough time not leaving Smith, TKR, Loyer, Cluff, Jacobsen, Cox and Harris on the floor if he wants to win. Murphy will see time due to matchups and his 42% 3pt shooting and experience. Burgess might get some time if fouls trouble hits. Mayer, how good is he? West and Benter??
By most accounts, Mayer is really really good. Now, we will see this fall. Maybe he's massively over hyped but if we are going to say trust in Painter then kinda have to believe he isn't, right?
Benter is supposed to be very good. We know Harris and Cox are very good and getting better.
I just don't understand the we gotta stick to these 7 guys when Painter himself went out and got a lot of new bodies, and I'm assuming he didn't do it to stand pat and make little tweaks. He did it to go all in on a championship season next year. That means he doesn't think just running it back was going to be good enough. Which means maybe, just maybe, some players might see less (or more) playing time than last season.
Agree. Mayer, with his pro experiene, is the big question. I expect West and Benter to be excellent, but I'd be very surprised if they break in and play a meaningful role next season.
Cox and Harris were solid as freshmen and will get better, but they're not going to be better as sophomores than Fletcher is as a senior. As others have stated, the question is likely to be how often a lock down defender are needed. Loyer and Mayer can play together alongside Braden, but unless Mayer surprises (shocks?) with his defense, neither is going to be a great 1x1 defender.
If you ignore the front court, you ask yourself 1) how many guys are likely to play substantial minutes and 2) to your point, why did he bring these guys in?
Benter and West are the future. If they help this year, awesome, but that's not why MP brought them in. So you're looking at the same backcourt as last year, plus Mayer, less Colvin. Braden will be Braden, and we'll see what we get from the other four. The floor seems pretty high and as my buddy HUB posted earlier, there's a theoretical chance that two or more of those guys end up playing at a first or second team all conference level. If you look at the distribution curve of likely outcomes I believe that outcome is to the far right. It's not an impossibility, though, and June is a great time to pontification on edge cases.
Well shoot why not just play TKR, Braden, and fletch 40 minutes then? Why did paint put Trevion Williams on the bench and reduce his minute senior year? Was he just ok? He will play the other guys because a fresh Benter for 5 minutes again is better than an exhausted loyer for 30. There’s also strategy in foul management.
Painter gave Cox a ton of minutes as a frosh, the idea that frosh aren't going to play more than a handful of minutes is old school and not very much the way Painter has operated for a long, long time
So we don't know that Benter won't get 10-15 minutes. We don't know how much time Mayer will get. We do know that we have 120 minutes for 7 players across 3 spots.
If we assume Loyer and Smith stay the same that's already nearly 70 minutes leaving just 50 for five players.
So you'd either have to believe that Cox and Harris keep their 35 a game from last season and Murphy, Mayer and Benter combined only get 15 minutes. Or you have to believe Cox and Harris lose minutes significantly but can't believe that Loyer or Smith might lose 3-5 minutes a game.
The gap between Loyer and the other guys isn't SO huge that the idea he might lose 5 minutes to the addition of three new players and two returning players when those minutes are split between three positions instead of four is all that crazy a thought.
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Taking aside Trevion and Zach, who couldn’t play together, when was the last time Painter played an all conference level player less than 30 mpg? If Matt thinks he needs to play younger guys early to develop them (Mayer?), he may, but I can’t think of an example of him not riding his top guys.
Ok if we are going to go when's the last time, when's the last time Painter was this aggressive in the portal? Never.
SO which is it then? Murphy Benter and Mayer collectively play 15 minutes or less or Cox and Harris lose significant minutes?
Unless you count Mayer, which you shouldn't because he didn't come via the portal, the portal additions were front-court and have nothing to do with this conversation. Mayer comes in, Colvin goes out. I don't see where Benter's minutes come from this year, outside of quasi mop-up time or special situations.
Facts are facts; Painter is going to ride his top three guys, and unless someone else blows up, everyone else will do their job in support roles.
I’m not assuming they will combine for 70, actually less than 65. And I do expect we play 11 on a regular basis next year.
I understand this is a slow time of the year and a lot of people enjoy figuring out how all of the players fit on the chess board. The really fun part is, no one knows how the newcomers will adjust to Purdue bball and blend in, and no one knows how much of a leap some of the veterans are making.
Returning to reality, how can I get a job as Sasha's assistant, touring Europe recruiting for Purdue?
Returning to reality, how can I get a job as Sasha's assistant, touring Europe recruiting for Purdue?
I mean that's the assumption folks are making if they say Loyer can't drop below 30 and Smith can't drop below his 38 or so.
The remaining five players aren't playing in the four or the five slots so they are splitting the remaining 50 minutes btw those three positions.
And that's assuming West gets no minutes at all.
I just don't understand the logic that Painter went out and got these players but somehow Loyer at 30 instead of say 25 is sacrosanct and crazy talk.
It made sense up until now perhaps because there was not only a wide gap btw Fletch and any other guard not named Smith but we were also kinda short on guards to begin with. Now, we've added 2 and only lost one. Technically we've added 3 but again I'm assuming West doesn't play (which could be wrong of course).
Not only did we add three, but we added two players (three really with DJ) who make our 4-5 positions 2 deep now so we aren't forced to play small players/guards/wings at the 4.
Like is said, it's going to be in flux game to game. Maybe Mayer comes in hot. Maybe it takes him half a season, or of course maybe he simply isn't ready to play. All three can be said about Benter. We know Harris and Cox can contribute. We don't know if they take a big leap, stagnate or regress. Does Murphy give us anything? Cluff and DJ will certainly play minutes.
There's a lot more talent on this team coming up than last year's team. A LOT. I just don't see Painter saying yeah that's great but I'm going to max minutes three players and sprinkle the rest in. I think he's going to see a team that is extremely flexible allowing for different players to exploit different matchups and allowing for hot or cold players in a single game to be given requisite minutes that game.
Heck Loyer could easily play close to 40 minutes some games. Other games, it's going to be closer to 20. It's fluid. But the math is still there with a lot of talent for limited game minutes.
And playing golf a lot. He X'd that he made 2 eagles in a round this week. Was wearing a Medinah hat but don't know if that's where he was at.
I agree mostly, but I would point out that we have a couple new additions that could completely flip a bunch of this on it's head. TKR was the go to because we had no center at all. You add Jacobsen and Cluff to the mix and we should see a lot more balance in our offense if they end up being who we think they will be. Jacobsen especially could make a case for a driver over a 3 pt specialist by spacing the floor, which would devalue the skillset Fletcher brings relative to more athletic guards. Doesn't mean he doesn't play a bunch just that with a 3 pt. shooting center, you have an element that hasn't existed since he started playing at Purdue.
The other factor that could impact Fletch is the potential for a swarming D and transition squad. Fletch is decent at transition, but not at the swarming D. If we play fast and try for a lockdown D it could minorly impact his minutes.
That said I think the likelihood is Fletch plays his 30 as he did last year or maybe loses a few minutes per game to the new blood. As others have pointed out he was nearly an all B1G last year, and is very likely to be the biggest 3 pt threat on the team, and we all know 3 pt. shots are the #1 in modern basketball.
Agree. If DJ, Cluff, Meyer or West come in and are all world it could significantly change things up, although my view on how that might happen is different than yours.
Hopefully a fun season with some pleasant surprises as to how these guys develop and fit in.
Again, if Fletch plays 30+ minutes and Smith plays near 40 you only have 15 minutes total for the new guys unless you are going to take minutes away from Cox and Harris.
TKR probably loses a few minutes too because again there are way more quality players on this team next season then possibly Purdue has ever had.
When's the last time we had three guys who could all legit play center at a high level?
We have 9 guys at the 1-3. Painter didn't bring in Murphy to ride the pine. He didn't bring in Mayer to play 5-10 minutes.
Loyer played so many minutes bc Colvin didn't make the jump, and bc Heide spent time at the 4 which opened up minutes at the 1-3 so you could play Loyer 30+ bc you didn't have as much competition for minutes and you didn't have anyone who could shoot like him, and you really only had the personnel to play one way.
Now, as you've correctly pointed out, we have variability in play styles possible now. We could go two big, spacing out with shooters which in those scenarios that's a Fletch game.
Or we can go more fast paced with DJ anchoring down low and putting athletic guys around him, that's not a Fletch game.
We also have alternatives for when Fletch is off, and yes, that happens. We also have players that can get into a heater which might delay another players return.
If Painter wanted to do exactly what we did last season, he wouldn't have used the portal, he's just have run it back
Would be a crime if TKR plays less than 30. He’s the best PF in the country.
Believe they have said Murphy will be more of a small ball 4–similar to Heide.
And we have Murphy who we hope can shoot like him, but we don’t know if he can at a high level of competition. Hoping he can. But I think Murphy is gonna play 5-8 minutes at the 4 and no 3 time.
To play devils advocate and to to ask what you did above…where’s the last time paint switched his offense up with the core 3 back?
Cox was the only one that showed he could go on a heater and him and fletch can play together. Maybe Mayer dips into fletch’s mins.
I think he was focused on the front court with Cluff and Murphy. Mayer is more for the future.
I'd guess that Murphy and Loyer are hardly ever on the court together. Maybe only in situation where we're down late and we need extra 3-point shooting. Sounds like Murphy's bigger so could play some Heide-4 like Purvis said. Not sure about his rebounding skills. In that case it could be with Braden and 2 of Cox/Harris/Mayer with 1 big, Jacobsen probably for the rim protection and rebounding.
The possibilities are really endless.
The possibilities are really endless.
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