Had Fletch entered the portal, he wouldn't have lasted a day and would now be making a lot more money for a contender. His shooting and overall play would dictate it.
9 man rotation prediction with minutes
- Thread starter BoilerDaddy
- Start date
More facts than opinion really. Start with the facts that 1) Fletch played at an all-conference level last season, making HM on low volume as a (distant) third scoring option, 2) the offense next season will continue to start and end with Braden and Trey, and everyone else's job is to fit in around them 3) MP has on multiple occasions said that Fletch does exactly what he's asked to do on offense, drawing attention from Trey and Braden, making good decisions, hitting open shots.
Your argument then becomes that you'll have two players who come in and perform at an all-league level while complementing Braden and Trey better than Fletch. It's just not going to happen. The only real example of a player like Fletch seeing his minutes materially reduced was Trevion, who was pushed out by a future two-time NPOY and top ten draft pick. Even if a guy like that is on the roster, you'd need two of those guys to get Fletch below 25 minutes, as Zach and Trevion couldn't play together, but Fletch can play with Braden and any of the other guards.
How is that responsive to anything anyone has said lol you're so out of balance with Loyer. If someone says he might play 29 minutes you take it as a personal insult to your family.
I highly doubt he'd be making a lot more money than he's making now.
We have Smith, Loyer, Mayer, Harris, Benter, Cox and the kid we brought in who's name escapes me who are competing for 120 minutes at three spots. Because none of them are playing the 4 or 5 and we aren't playing four guards.
So yeah both Smith and Loyer are probably seeing their minutes reduced. Because Cox is getting 20. Mayer could get 15. Harris is getting at least 10. Benter is playing. The transfer wing is playing. Math is math. We have more options now so the ones that are hot, whether that's Loyer or Mayer or Cox or Whomever are going to have minutes go up and others who aren't playing that well that game, again whomever it is, won't get as many minutes that game.
So yeah some game Loyer will play 35, bc he's on, and some games he won't bc Mayer is on a tear or Cox is having a game or whatever.
The whole point of improving the way we have is to add versatility not lock things into one path. If Mayer can handle backup ball handling than Smith too will see his minutes drop not because he isn't the best PG in the country but because the dropoff isn't as steep now so we can keep him more rested for the tournament.
Exactly! It’s a fluid situation. If you can rest your players without a big drop off you might be considered poorly managing if not doing so. If they’re on a heater then you likely take them out less. Resting top players is not a bad thing and if they’re other players are contributing and not costing your team you also create an adjustment for the opponent to deal with. I just think making an absolute statement about Fletch’s PT at this point is hard to pin down with all of the possible contributors with different skill sets and abilities to offer is just a crap shoot.
We all know he’s good and what he offers. I am pretty sure we all think he’s gonna start. What I feel like we should be able to agree on is that his PT might just vary game to game and I believe the average will be reduced from last year. The talent of Cox, Harris, Mayer (I don’t think he signs without having an assessment from painter saying he’s got a decent chance of seeing the floor some this year, no guarantee), Benter (painter has been very positive when talking about him), West offers a lot of depth and options to throw at opponents. I hope we can play both fletch and Smith a bit less this year because that means our talent and depth can be trusted giving us a better team that’s more difficult for opponents to deal with.
I agree that if Braden and Fletcher can see their load reduced somewhat, that’s a good thing, but Braden is likely to still play close to 35 mpg (min 33) and Trey and Fletch close to 30 (min 28).
I think your arguement on minute distribution likely has merit, but IMO that looks like Fletch or Trey playing 35 minutes in a close game when they’re playing well and 27 minutes in a game where someone else is on a tear or it’s a blowout. It’s always possible I’m wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time, but I’d wager I’m pretty close on this one.
Painter is 100% an idiot if Fletcher averages 22 mpg 🤩 Facts. Book it.
Another, albeit minor factor, is Painter does have to think about the near future. He loses Loyer, Smith and TKR next season. He probably wouldn't mind it if some of these younger players can get meaningful minutes this season (while of course making winning a championship by far the primary goal).
Fletch and Braden have started together in every.single.game! The only way I see Fletch not starting is if he is injured and let's hope that doesn't happen.
He might start and only play 5 minutes (really doubtful) but I can't imagine Painter breaking that backcourt starting streak without an extreme circumstance.
How many minutes each player gets is not only going to be determined by who is practicing well and who is hot, but nobody had mentioned matchups.
Matchups will be key to minutes with our depth. A team without a true center will see lots of TKR and Cluff. A team with two 7 footers might see a 4 guard lineup to run circles around them and pop 3's they can't guard.
Who knows what will happen, we are the most stable team in college basketball and with at least 3 returning starters (likely 4) we still have no idea how this will play out.
In Painter we trust. He's earned it.
He might start and only play 5 minutes (really doubtful) but I can't imagine Painter breaking that backcourt starting streak without an extreme circumstance.
How many minutes each player gets is not only going to be determined by who is practicing well and who is hot, but nobody had mentioned matchups.
Matchups will be key to minutes with our depth. A team without a true center will see lots of TKR and Cluff. A team with two 7 footers might see a 4 guard lineup to run circles around them and pop 3's they can't guard.
Who knows what will happen, we are the most stable team in college basketball and with at least 3 returning starters (likely 4) we still have no idea how this will play out.
In Painter we trust. He's earned it.
I really can’t envision a situation where Fletch doesn’t start either. If that happens then someone else has elevated their game to a level that will elevate the play and potential of the team and FF/NC chances!
No one here has said Fletch shouldn't start
No one here said don't trust Painter
I frankly doubt Smith’s minutes will lessen much this season, due to him being very good and the career records he will be chasing.
Fletch played 30.9 mpg last year. He played more than 36 minutes in 2 games and both were losses, one the big upset vs OSU and he played 36 in the upset vs Michigan. With Mayer alone he will lose minutes. Eric Hunter saw his minutes decrease from 30.6 his junior year to 25.8 his senior year and didn’t start all games despite starting the two prior seasons. Trevion, Newman, and It lost starts too. We had Jaden Ivey and too many good players and everyone was healthy. I see the same next year. I think fletch starts but if cox gets the jump like Ivey got he won’t sit and if Mayer is as good as advertised he could even take fletch’s starts. It’s not a bad problem to have. No one would ever have dreamed Trevion would play off the bench that year.
I think you have to start Fletch simply because if he's in big game mode you want to maximize that time.
If he doesn't have it then you can see if Mayer or Cox or Harris is more on that game and adjust minutes accordingly for that game.
It’s not comparing them as players but the situation. EHJ played a lot of minutes due to a lack of quality minutes. The quality was enhanced EHJ’s senior year with Ivey blowing up, Ethan Morton getting healthy, and IT improving. Same as next season with cox and Harris making the sophomore jump, Mayer, and Benter plus TKR playing a lot of 4, which essentially negates significant minutes that would be opened up by Heide leaving. We basically get Colvins 18 minutes back to split amongst Benter and Mayer. I just don’t see how Cox and Harris will lose much minutes from 19 and 15 and I don’t see Braden losing more than a few minutes a game. That’s why I see the 120 guard minutes looking like
Braden - 35
Fletch - 25
Mayer - 20
Cox - 20
Harris - 15
Benter - 5
I think West redshirts.
Also Benter might get more than 5 if he gets a chance to play 4 if we go really small. But I see Murphy filling that role more.
It’s an awful comparison. Fletch’s minutes may go down slightly if we have a lot of comfortable leads with five minutes to go to get him rest and to get run for guys like Benter. Hunter played fewer minutes because he was just an ok player.
I won’t repeat myself in detail from my previous post, but if you look at the facts you’d need to have two of the younger backcourt guys performing at an all conference level and complimenting Braden and Tre better than Fletch to even think about Fletch ‘losing’ minutes.
Mostly because he didn't have a 3 that was as good.
If he hasn't shown his love of size to you YET, I don't know what to tell you.
Would love Fletch to be even more aggressive from 3. Last year he passed up a lot of shots trying to be a team player but he was and probably will be the best option. 44% from 3 => 66% from 2 which is winning most basketball games
. Even if he drops to 40% that still equates to 60% from 2. Like more 3s from those who are capable.The problem for the younger pups, that the schedule is really tough and Paint is going to have a rough time not leaving Smith, TKR, Loyer, Cluff, Jacobsen, Cox and Harris on the floor if he wants to win. Murphy will see time due to matchups and his 42% 3pt shooting and experience. Burgess might get some time if fouls trouble hits. Mayer, how good is he? West and Benter??
By most accounts, Mayer is really really good. Now, we will see this fall. Maybe he's massively over hyped but if we are going to say trust in Painter then kinda have to believe he isn't, right?
Benter is supposed to be very good. We know Harris and Cox are very good and getting better.
I just don't understand the we gotta stick to these 7 guys when Painter himself went out and got a lot of new bodies, and I'm assuming he didn't do it to stand pat and make little tweaks. He did it to go all in on a championship season next year. That means he doesn't think just running it back was going to be good enough. Which means maybe, just maybe, some players might see less (or more) playing time than last season.
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