OT: ACC what happens next? VA Tech POV

[POTFHBTFU]

Looking at this article and today’s ruling about NIL, I can see a lot of changes coming to college football between now and. 2030. The B1G and SEC are already using their power to change the college football playoffs.

One change that may become a reality is. ND may be forced to have their football team join a conference or not being able to participate in any post season tournament in football or basketball.

This article points out the most likely teams to join the B1G are UNC and FSU. But also speculates the B1G could expand to 24 teams. And a lot of other ACC teams like Georgia tech and virgins tech and Miami and Clemson and Duke and nd could be possibilities.

The year 2030 is given because that is the year the ACC contract with ESPN is concluded. And it is expected that ESPN won’t renew it and teams will be allowed to to leave.

What is not being said is there are many current ongoing lawsuits. And teams like Clemson, FSU and Miami. May find a way to buy their way out of the ACC Before 2030 much like USC and Texas did. Sure they are under contract. Money creates and breaks contracts.

Lots of inaccuracies here:
1. 2030 is not when the espn contract ends but when the GOR agreement amendment recently passed allows a reduced buyout by the acc members. That amount is expected to be palatable for teams leaving for B1G or ACC.
2. The amendment was a settlement in the lawsuit with acc. Nothing will change before that as a result of any lawsuits you are suggesting.
3. With regards to ND they are in the ACC GOR and will not be going anywhere before 2030.
4. Your comment on ND could be shut out of playoffs is just flat wrong. Basketball is not expected to change. Ongoing discussions are how many AQ will be slotted for the B1G and SEC for football only and seeding. Honestly this will probably all have very little effect on who is in the playoffs, might only be 1-2 teams that could get AQ that would otherwise be at-larges regardless.
5. Today’s ruling? You mean the house settlement that was settled several months ago and the entire sports ecosystem has already adapted to for months? The only change was they are grandfathering some walk-ons, there was no “ruling” just the formal approval of a long time settlement that has been in the works.

My point is don’t expect anything major to change in football between now and 2030. We’ve had some major changes the past 2-3 years but it should be a slow and gradual decline of teams without full financial resources. I think the impactful news will be NIL lawsuits by student athletes which will have nuanced changes but nothing seismic.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

I anticipate that by 2030 one super league will emerge in college football outside of ncaa control. TV revenues aren’t guaranteed to grow, but expenses will skyrocket to run these football programs…something will have to give. Are the top 30 teams going to continue losing money (Ohio State ran a $38 million deficit last season despite a natty)?

We all know there’s dead weight in both the SEC and B1G on the revenue side, and the ability for elite programs to outspend everyone else the gap will grow. Can’t see why either would want anyone other than Clemson, maybe FSU from the ACC.

One super league? What happens to SEC or B1G, you suggesting they will combine?

 

[Wolegib]

the way the college football playoffs work now, ND has less pressure to join a conference.

My thoughts are the playoffs will change dramatically between now and 2030! The SEC and B1G have already used their power and influence to change the playoff seeding for next year against the powers to be that said no changes would happen any time soon. That’s why I believe ND is going to be forced to join a conference and all other independents will also be the outside looking in.

 

[Wolegib]

Lots of inaccuracies here:
1. 2030 is not when the espn contract ends but when the GOR agreement amendment recently passed allows a reduced buyout by the acc members. That amount is expected to be palatable for teams leaving for B1G or ACC.
2. The amendment was a settlement in the lawsuit with acc. Nothing will change before that as a result of any lawsuits you are suggesting.
3. With regards to ND they are in the ACC GOR and will not be going anywhere before 2030.
4. Your comment on ND could be shut out of playoffs is just flat wrong. Basketball is not expected to change. Ongoing discussions are how many AQ will be slotted for the B1G and SEC for football only and seeding. Honestly this will probably all have very little effect on who is in the playoffs, might only be 1-2 teams that could get AQ that would otherwise be at-larges regardless.
5. Today’s ruling? You mean the house settlement that was settled several months ago and the entire sports ecosystem has already adapted to for months? The only change was they are grandfathering some walk-ons, there was no “ruling” just the formal approval of a long time settlement that has been in the works.

My point is don’t expect anything major to change in football between now and 2030. We’ve had some major changes the past 2-3 years but it should be a slow and gradual decline of teams without full financial resources. I think the impactful news will be NIL lawsuits by student athletes which will have nuanced changes but nothing seismic.

I was responding to the article presented. So I guess the original was wrong?

 

[Quix0te]

My thoughts are the playoffs will change dramatically between now and 2030! The SEC and B1G have already used their power and influence to change the playoff seeding for next year against the powers to be that said no changes would happen any time soon. That’s why I believe ND is going to be forced to join a conference and all other independents will also be the outside looking in.

None of this "forces" ND to join a conference. And " . . . all other independents . . . " is UConn.

 

[Thordog]

Conference championship games are dead with the expanded playoff. With the P4, both the CCG winner and loser get invited to the playoff. With the new format, the CCG winner no longer gets a top four seed and first round bye. So what's the purpose?

declaring conference champion and money.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

I was responding to the article presented. So I guess the original was wrong?

No… lol. The article is right, it says 3-4 teams will exit acc in 2030 when exit fee is low enough. Literally. The espn deal is still on and most of the others still cannot afford to leave because only the B1G and sec will be able to give enough money to pay it. That’s the point of the article. Crazy you can read an article and miss the entire objective of it and then spew off inaccuracies like that. ND (who is not really independent), the only difference between them and all other acc teams is they only have to play 5 conference games in football, all other sports is 100% acc) will also have the same issue but it is only required to play 5 acc games a year and can schedule 7 others and will likely ride it out unless they decide to go to sec or B1G. But it doesn’t make sense because the money they get from nbc and acc leaves a small gap with B1G so if they had to pay even 2030 exit fee it’s not justified. I think the 2 super league situation makes them LESS likely to join B1G or SEC because they still have clear pathway to playoffs just like this year. There will be so many at large spots if they can’t make it it will not be because they didn’t join B1G or SEC.

 

[Quix0te]

declaring conference champion and money.

They're going to get a lot more TV money by having the two top teams play first round games instead of having the conference champ get a bye. As for declaring a conference champ. the Big Ten did it for decades before we had a CCG.

 

[Thordog]

They're going to get a lot more TV money by having the two top teams play first round games instead of having the conference champ get a bye. As for declaring a conference champ. the Big Ten did it for decades before we had a CCG.

sounds like the latest rendition of the future CFP discussions is a 16 team format with the top five-ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids and the other 11 going to the top ranked at-large teams. 5+11 format.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

sounds like the latest rendition of the future CFP discussions is a 16 team format with the top five-ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids and the other 11 going to the top ranked at-large teams. 5+11 format.

And seeding based on final rankings? And no more byes?

 

[Thordog]

And seeding based on final rankings? And no more byes?

Sounds like it, but it's not finalized yet There's been several meetings that are ongoing on the future of the CFP. Interestingly, ESPN's contract runs until 2031 and they just sold the broadcast rights for a game to TNT Sports.

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