Short-term: Currently having a great year (up about 90%), due to biotech, rare earths and precious metal miners. However, I am now thinking defensively as the market is long in the tooth, the summer is here and inflation is roaring. With that in mind, I am now about 30% cash and may go to 50% soon, while primarily focused on precious metals . More specifically, I recently sold my GOLD (Barrick position) and some of LYSCF (rare earths) expecting a market pullback and buying some Dec /Jan Calls on AUY and IAG which I thought were cheap given our inflation situation.
Summer: I think the summer will be all about inflation and the June changes to banks (will no longer be able to get credit for holding Gold "paper" on their books - will have to hold more physical gold. My guess is that both will support more Gold buying and gold prices. I am hoping that the overall market will pull back in the summer and pull some of the miners with it with the margin calls (ie GOLD, IAG, SSRM, AXU, etc..) IF . . . it happens, I will be first looking to add some CALL options on them in Sept if it's a BIG pullback (10-20%) or Dec/Jan if it's a small pullback. My view is that Gold and Silver prices will rally throughout the summer with the FED unable to do anything until employment gets back to pre-pandemic numbers. Any early rate hikes will cause chaos in the market and could trigger global liquidity issues. I therefore think the summer is going to be a good environment for gold and silver investing. (ie inflation, no FED change, growing profitability) I will reassess my approach in August before the FED meets & talks. While I do NOT expect any rate hike in the Fall, we "Could" see them beginning to "talk" about that topic if inflation burns hot over the summer (which I expect) That could potentially cause gold prices and miners to pull back in the early Fall, as the bond market and the dollar could rally from lows which such rate talk.
On-going: We are entering uncharted waters with all of the world-wide debt AND interest rates being virtually nothing. ANY upward move on interest rates will cause chaos. I am therefore preparing for major turbulence again, while hoping for the best. More specifically, I am buying Gold and Silver coins and making improvement to my house, which should hold their value.
I hope all of you are well, as we try to exit this pandemic. The faster we get vaccinated, the faster we get back to something closer to normal, but . . I still expect another year of muck because many will NOT get vaccinated. That could bring another strain of COVID to our shores at a particularly bad time for it.