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Next years lineup?

I think it’s a good exercise to allow realistic expectations (ie. Not everyone can play 20+ min). Just as a mock breakdown to give a visual, I’ll provide my guess.

Starters:

Ivey - 25
Newman - 25
Sasha - 25
Kaufman - 20
Williams - 25

Reserves:

Hunter - 25
Gillis - 20
Furst - 15
IT - 15
Edey - 5

Likely not a factor (0 minutes)

Wheeler
Morton
Dow
Definite on Dow....Most Likely on Wheeler...Who'knows on Morton might be a redshirt..but everyones getting a free season next year..we can agree to disagree but can't see how Hunter won't start..he's our best defender hard to think Edey will only get 5...we would have to play "small" alot for Furst to chew up that many minutes...IF WILLIAMS STAYS...i actually think he'll go..not much else to prove
 
The most fascinating line up will not be who starts season..if Williams stays... it will be Williams, Gillis, Newman, Hunter, Ivey...but who ends up at end of season!!
 
Definite on Dow....Most Likely on Wheeler...Who'knows on Morton might be a redshirt..but everyones getting a free season next year..we can agree to disagree but can't see how Hunter won't start..he's our best defender hard to think Edey will only get 5...we would have to play "small" alot for Furst to chew up that many minutes...IF WILLIAMS STAYS...i actually think he'll go..not much else to prove
I was conflicted on whether or not to insert Ivey in the lineup for Hunter or Sasha. I ended up sticking with Sasha as I think he is such a hard player for teams to game plan for. I could see Hunter in the lineup instead of Sasha though.

I think we would be fine with Furst at center as long as he was with Kaufman. We already double the post against good bigs anyways.

I hopeWilliams stays, but I could see him opting for a lucrative European contract. Do you know how old he is?
 
I was conflicted on whether or not to insert Ivey in the lineup for Hunter or Sasha. I ended up sticking with Sasha as I think he is such a hard player for teams to game plan for. I could see Hunter in the lineup instead of Sasha though.

I think we would be fine with Furst at center as long as he was with Kaufman. We already double the post against good bigs anyways.

I hopeWilliams stays, but I could see him opting for a lucrative European contract. Do you know how old he is?
Hw will be 21 in Sept 2021
 
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All of these playing time issues have a way of working themselves out. I could see Wheeler moving on just to get more time. Dow is a none factor and I think it is going to be tough for IT to get much playing time. I am going to give Morton a pass this year due to illness and playing time, but he is way too good of a basketball player to sit the bench. I expect Ethan to have a break out year next.
 
Keep in mind that kids who play 3-4 years on a team have deep friendships with other players and develop a strong loyalty to coach and school. Unless they are sure-fire NBA prospects who are riding the bench, they are unlikely to transfer, even if their minutes are reduced. You see it in the way the entire bench celebrates when their teammates succeed, even the guys who are taking their minutes. That is the way a strong team responds.

I expect Kaufman and Furst to get minutes, but I doubt they will start before the season is half over, and maybe not even that soon. I don’t see anyone transferring that is a regular player this year. It just won’t happen.
 
There are 200 available minutes in a game. Give me your breakdown of minutes for each player next year. This exercise will show you there will be unhappy players. Top 50 recruits don’t expect a limited role in year 1.
If we are winning there'll be no whining. For reference see teams like Duke, Kansas and UK that recruit only 4 and 5 stars each year but as long as they're winning players accept their roles.
 
Keep in mind that kids who play 3-4 years on a team have deep friendships with other players and develop a strong loyalty to coach and school. Unless they are sure-fire NBA prospects who are riding the bench, they are unlikely to transfer, even if their minutes are reduced. You see it in the way the entire bench celebrates when their teammates succeed, even the guys who are taking their minutes. That is the way a strong team responds.

I expect Kaufman and Furst to get minutes, but I doubt they will start before the season is half over, and maybe not even that soon. I don’t see anyone transferring that is a regular player this year. It just won’t happen.
I agree. You have players on this team who will have at least one year of going through the wars in the toughest, most physical league in the nation. The incoming freshmen, as big and talented as they are, will need time to adjust to how much faster the game is and how big and strong the players are. And they will have to adjust to how hard they will have to work in practice to get significant minutes from Coach Painter.

Every fan has in their minds the players who should and should not get minutes. But we have learned that Coach Painter does not make his decisions based on talent, rankings by experts, or the whims of the fans. He watches them every day in practice and he knows when they are ready.
 
If we are winning there'll be no whining. For reference see teams like Duke, Kansas and UK that recruit only 4 and 5 stars each year but as long as they're winning players accept their roles.
Duke, UK, and Kansas get transfers all the time. Those schools also hardly use more than 10 scholarships in a given year.
 
I agree. You have players on this team who will have at least one year of going through the wars in the toughest, most physical league in the nation. The incoming freshmen, as big and talented as they are, will need time to adjust to how much faster the game is and how big and strong the players are. And they will have to adjust to how hard they will have to work in practice to get significant minutes from Coach Painter.

Every fan has in their minds the players who should and should not get minutes. But we have learned that Coach Painter does not make his decisions based on talent, rankings by experts, or the whims of the fans. He watches them every day in practice and he knows when they are ready.
The problem is that in some folk’s minds, the kid at the end of the bench, or the new recruits we haven’t seen play a college game, are always better than kids we have seen playing in the toughest conference in the world. We have seen the existing starters play, fail, miss shots, turn the ball over, and make defensive mistakes. We haven’t seen the same for those unknowns, so in the poster’s minds, those untested players MUST be better than whatever players they’ve seen.

It is a trick our minds play on us. A good high school player can usually dominate their competition, leaving a false impression. Not so much once they reach the high end of division one college basketball.
 
Furst is not a college or pro 4. His game is closer to TJD, and TJD isn’t a college 4. You can’t have Williams and Furst on the floor together since neither one can shoot. CMP’s offense is 4 out 1 in.

I believe Furst will be the starting 5 when Tre leaves, not Edey. Someone on the frontline will need to redshirt, or there are going to be some unhappy players.

I don’t agree with this. Furst is already a better shooter than TJD
 
If we are winning there'll be no whining. For reference see teams like Duke, Kansas and UK that recruit only 4 and 5 stars each year but as long as they're winning players accept their roles.
This^^^ Wheeler was a few seconds from playing in a final four. I think he would want to be along for the ride next year since it is his last and see what happens.
If he wants to transfer, I am sure it will be a decision Painter will discuss with him.
 
I suspect that Gillis will move to the three next year, behind Newman. I think he has the lateral quickness to guard the three and the shooting ability to spread the court, but he also will be capable of attacking the glass from the three position. I can see him playing a lot with Kaufman at the 4, where both are versatile enough to spread the court or work inside, especially if dictated by matchups. My guess is that Kaufman and Furst will take almost all the minutes at the four and will also play together some.
 
Go look at what Edey has accomplished in conference vs what he did in non conference. The more he was scouted the more teams took him away.
Still no reason to redshirt him, he can use this season as a redshirt if he wants to play 5 years, he'll suit up even if that means he only plays 10 minutes a game. I think next year is it with Williams, he won't take the extra year, Edey his Jr year will get plenty of minutes.
 
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I said transfer OR receive 0 min. For example, Dow may not transfer, but I don’t expect him to play.
Guessing Dow calls it a career or leaves if he wants to play, Wheeler probably leaves and goes to a lower level school in hopes of getting 25-30 minutes a game. Guessing the Boilers sport an 11 player roster next year, Morton will have to really improve to break into the rotation, it's possible. This year is sort of a redshirt for everyone, I doubt anyone redshirts next year, Morton would be the only possibility.
 
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This^^^ Wheeler was a few seconds from playing in a final four. I think he would want to be along for the ride next year since it is his last and see what happens.
If he wants to transfer, I am sure it will be a decision Painter will discuss with him.
Wheeler could still transfer after next year lol. This year doesn't count as eligibility if a player doesn't want it to, he could come back except limited minutes and go somewhere where he could play a ton his 6th year.
 
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There are 200 available minutes in a game. Give me your breakdown of minutes for each player next year. This exercise will show you there will be unhappy players. Top 50 recruits don’t expect a limited role in year 1.
Purdue2018, your spot on here. There are 200 minutes. We all love our players but if someone plays morethen someone else plays less. It’s a zero some game.

Painter plays eight or nine guys. There is room for 4 guys to get meaningful minutes at the 4 and 5. I thought that odd man out might be Gillis but as the season progresses I’m starting to think it could be Edey.
The problem is that in some folk’s minds, the kid at the end of the bench, or the new recruits we haven’t seen play a college game, are always better than kids we have seen playing in the toughest conference in the world. We have seen the existing starters play, fail, miss shots, turn the ball over, and make defensive mistakes. We haven’t seen the same for those unknowns, so in the poster’s minds, those untested players MUST be better than whatever players they’ve seen.

It is a trick our minds play on us. A good high school player can usually dominate their competition, leaving a false impression. Not so much once they reach the high end of division one college basketball.
I generally agree with this but this year may be different. We see talk on these boards about all of our new recruits being better than their ranking. When guys are ranked 100-150 that’s sometime true sometimes it’s not. We could all pick individual players that appear to have been over or under rated. But this year our recruits are rated 30th an 42nd on rivals. That’s everyone else telling us their good. So this year our expectations align with others outside the program and aren’t just based on hope and gold and black colored glasses.
 
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Furst is not a college or pro 4. His game is closer to TJD, and TJD isn’t a college 4. You can’t have Williams and Furst on the floor together since neither one can shoot. CMP’s offense is 4 out 1 in.

I believe Furst will be the starting 5 when Tre leaves, not Edey. Someone on the frontline will need to redshirt, or there are going to be some unhappy players.

You've seen Furst many times but you think he's a big 10 center and his game resembles TJD.......
Were you with a gorgeous girl? Slept through the games??
Not sure what you've seen but it sure isn't what I've seen. Furst will be the 4 next to Edey. Unless Gillis holds him off. Then he'll be the backup center.
Nobody is redshirting.
 
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I disagree. IT is the 'safe' play, you know what you're going to get from him and you know he's not going to step outside his abilities or talent level.

But with Ivey, (or Carsen), they have such a wide range of talents and high ceiling, you could get a turnover, a bad decision on a 3 pointer or a dribble penetrate n dish or a one on one iso to breakdown the D and finish with an and-1.
I think to some extent, Keady, and maybe Painter (earlier in his coaching career) were more likely to pull a guy for make a bad decision. I think that hurt recruiting and also inhibited some guys from playing to not make mistakes.
Now granted, you have to be extremely talented to get that time of freedom and leash and the players who don't understand that also.

What do you disagree with? I said the same thing, just your emphasis is on the long leash and mine on the accountability end of it. We both agree he needs to play. I just say he's not a lock for prime minutes, because he still makes silly freshman plays and you can't ignore that part either. Just as often the safe play is the smart play.
 
Tre was always more effective with less minutes... not to mention he's usually in foul trouble & end of game free throw shooting. I know he logs alot of minutes now when he's not in foul trouble, but only because there are alot of games when Edy is out matched. I love Edy also, but I do think he needs to get stronger & a redshirt year would help him. Of course if Tre leaves, all bets are off.

THIS is Zack's redshirt year! And if you opened your eyes you'd see that he's improved greatly the past month. He's a better player now than when he was our starting center.....

He Won't Be Redshirting.
 
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Don't get me wrong. It is just my personality to root hard for Wheeler. I had hope he put on a ton of muscle and maybe he just can't, but I still wish he would take on the mindset of Gillis. He is very athletic, can run and jump, and his shot form just needs some minor tinkering and he can be incredible. But then again, I have been saying that for two years. Maybe Furst can come in and displace him as the PF.

The guy who bowled me over though is Zach. I was expecting 5 agonizing minutes from him a game. Did I read the reports correctly that he couldn't even start for his HS team? His leap is incredible and if he improves just half enough during this offseason, then Tre may be our best player this year, but Zach could get it for next. However, I still think upperclassmen should start. BTW, I went back to my post and edited Furst for also being an important player for taking us to the Final Four in 2 years, I goofed not including him.


I am not going to discredit your opinion, but simply ask why upperclassmen should start? I posted on here a few months ago, that " the best players should start no matter the age". Our freshman this year have earned their starting spots and from what I can see, some are better than our older players. My girls both played ball and both started at times on their varsity squads. I thought over time they earned that. When they didn't have a great game, I had no problem a younger kiddo getting their minutes. My feelings have always been play who is getting the job done.
 
You've seen Furst many times but you think he's a big 10 center and his game resembles TJD.......
Were you with a gorgeous girl? Slept through the games??
Not sure what you've seen but it sure isn't what I've seen. Furst will be the 4 next to Edey. Unless Gillis holds him off. Then he'll be the backup center.
Nobody is redshirting.
Furst has a little more range than TJD, but isn’t a stretch 4 by any means. He is more of a 5 in college. Kaufman will be the 4 next to Williams, unless Gillis holds him off. There is no way of telling who is correct until next November, so not really anything to get too worked up about.
 
THIS is Zack's redshirt year! And if you opened your eyes you'd see that he's improved greatly the past month. He's a better player now than when he was our starting center.....

He Won't Be Redshirting.
Edey hasn’t been good in conference play. There really is no questioning that. Shooting only 42% for someone his size is not great. I will say that he is still miles ahead of where most thought he would be.

Points: 4.5
Rebounds: 3.9
Blocks: 1.2
Turnovers: 1
FG%: 42.5%
FT%: 60%
 
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All of these playing time issues have a way of working themselves out. I could see Wheeler moving on just to get more time. Dow is a none factor and I think it is going to be tough for IT to get much playing time. I am going to give Morton a pass this year due to illness and playing time, but he is way too good of a basketball player to sit the bench. I expect Ethan to have a break out year next.

Serious question: What have you seen from Morton for you to say that he's way too good of a basketball player to sit? Are you basing that on high school or has he had some great games that I missed this year?
I'm not crapping on him, I'm just haven't seen what you're seeing.
I love the idea of a 6'6 PG, and maybe he'll just be a 4 year player who gets better every year, or he could be a guy who never lived up to his recruit ranking.
 
Keep in mind that kids who play 3-4 years on a team have deep friendships with other players and develop a strong loyalty to coach and school. Unless they are sure-fire NBA prospects who are riding the bench, they are unlikely to transfer, even if their minutes are reduced. You see it in the way the entire bench celebrates when their teammates succeed, even the guys who are taking their minutes. That is the way a strong team responds.

I expect Kaufman and Furst to get minutes, but I doubt they will start before the season is half over, and maybe not even that soon. I don’t see anyone transferring that is a regular player this year. It just won’t happen.
I understand Gillis redshirted and had some time in the program prior to this year. But he was starting in front of Wheeler prior to the start of the Big Ten season. So if your point is that they won't start that soon because they're freshmen, then I would disagree with you. If your point is that it's doubtful they'll start in front of Gillis or Sasha, then maybe I could agree with it.
However, I would guess it's highly likely Wheeler will decide to transfer. I just don't see him getting much playing time next year.
 
What do you disagree with? I said the same thing, just your emphasis is on the long leash and mine on the accountability end of it. We both agree he needs to play. I just say he's not a lock for prime minutes, because he still makes silly freshman plays and you can't ignore that part either. Just as often the safe play is the smart play.

Guys at different talent levels have different levels of accountability and the number of silly plays they can get away with.
We all remember Carsen coming down on a break and jacking up a 27 footer that went in. That's not a smart or high % play in anyone's book, but he had the freedom to do it.
If Wheeler does that, he's probably getting some pine time. But players like Carsen and Ivey are high volume scorers and producers and they do it a number of ways. Sometimes what they try leads to a TO or a bad decision, but you give them more rope than you would most players.
 
I am not going to discredit your opinion, but simply ask why upperclassmen should start? I posted on here a few months ago, that " the best players should start no matter the age". Our freshman this year have earned their starting spots and from what I can see, some are better than our older players. My girls both played ball and both started at times on their varsity squads. I thought over time they earned that. When they didn't have a great game, I had no problem a younger kiddo getting their minutes. My feelings have always been play who is getting the job done.

If you are building a team for the long haul you should always favor the upperclassmen as a sign of respect for the hard work they put into the program. Most players are recruited on the mindset that in a couple of years if you work hard you can start. Wheeler is smart and on paper is a fine player, but in games, he does not live up to his potential. IMO he does not have the strength of desire that Gillis has. Now from my far away observations and reading what others are saying, it appears our best strategy is to have Tre and Zach at center, slide Gillis to SF, and split Kaufman and Furst at SF. However, if Wheeler comes back 20 pounds more muscle and takes on the heart of Gillis then I would res-shirt one of the Freshman and start Wheeler. This is EXACTLY the message you want to send to the team. Work hard, be persistent, listen to the coach, and you will be rewarded. This offseason, we had two players who thought they were good enough not to listen to the coach. I liked them both very much but they digress, left and we are playing better as a team. Wheeler digressed even worse than they, but I am praying he changes this around and comes back as a double double PF.
 
If you are building a team for the long haul you should always favor the upperclassmen as a sign of respect for the hard work they put into the program. Most players are recruited on the mindset that in a couple of years if you work hard you can start. Wheeler is smart and on paper is a fine player, but in games, he does not live up to his potential. IMO he does not have the strength of desire that Gillis has. Now from my far away observations and reading what others are saying, it appears our best strategy is to have Tre and Zach at center, slide Gillis to SF, and split Kaufman and Furst at SF. However, if Wheeler comes back 20 pounds more muscle and takes on the heart of Gillis then I would res-shirt one of the Freshman and start Wheeler. This is EXACTLY the message you want to send to the team. Work hard, be persistent, listen to the coach, and you will be rewarded. This offseason, we had two players who thought they were good enough not to listen to the coach. I liked them both very much but they digress, left and we are playing better as a team. Wheeler digressed even worse than they, but I am praying he changes this around and comes back as a double double PF.
Wheeler probably won't be around next year, my guess is he drops down a level to an Indiana State/Valpo type of school with the hope of playing 25-30 minutes a game, he won't get that in West Lafayette. I really hope he returns and is a team player, however, not sure he'll have a huge role considering this is his 4th yr with the program.
 

I'm excited to see Kaufman in uniform next year. I watched some highlights and his outside stroke looks pretty good (although, whose doesn't on a highlight reel?). I was a bit "disappointed" to see only 2-4 from 3PFG. Furst seems to have some nice touch around the rim and also a nice mid-range game. The guy who really intrigues me is Vince Iwuchukwu from LaLu. He seems to have a nice stroke from deep. A 7-footer that can draw the defense out would really open up the middle for guys like Ivey and Newman. Not to mention drawing people away from Trevion.
 
Kaufman will eventually be the starter at the 4 position next year.

1. Hunter
2. Ivey
3. Newman
4. Kaufman
5. Tre

Not sure on Hunter as a starter next year. Not sure you don't start the B10 leading 3 pt shooter. With Ivey and Newman both having the ability to penetrate and dish, SS will get a lot of open looks. And if Kaufman can his the 3, the pick n pop will be deadly.
 
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Not sure on Hunter as a starter next year. Not sure you don't start the B10 leading 3 pt shooter. With Ivey and Newman both having the ability to penetrate and dish, SS will get a lot of open looks. And if Kaufman can his the 3, the pick n pop will be deadly.
Hunter is a much better defender than Sasha though. They’ll both play plenty. IT could get squeezed, especially if Kaufman gets some minutes at the 3, pushing Newman, Ivey and Sasha down to the 1 and 2 spots more.
 
Lot of pieces to play with for Painter and I am sure there will be a lot of hand wringing and moaning that he is messing it up early in the season.

Starting 5 to finish the season
Hunter
Newman
Ivey
Kaufman
Trevion
 
My starting 5 are Hunter, Sasha, Newman, Wheeler, and Tre. These 5 are experienced along with Newman to slash. I continue to be optimistic about Wheeler. He has so much ability, he just has to find himself.

Our second 5 which are just as good are Morton, Ivey, Gillis, Kaufman, and Zach. These 5 can build rapport and be Final Four players along with Newman and Furst in just two years. As a bonus, it looks like we are also bringing in a 3 point specialist.

I would redshirt Furst, give Dow a chance to see if he can be a role player, and keep Thompson as a reliable reserve who can step in and be productive. Hopefully, these 3 can surprise me.

After reading all the other posts, I stand by this one. IMO if all these players play about 20 minutes a game, we can be an elite 8 in 2022 and the National Champ in 2023.

Please keep in mind, I have only seen flashes of Morton and nothing of Furst and Kaufman. I am really hoping Wheeler has an epiphany and comes back with more self-confidence and at least 20 pounds of muscle. If not, he will be the 12th man along with IT and I will be rooting for both Furst and Kaufman to be as good as advertised.

In 2023, I also see Newman in the starting lineup. I had put him with the "elder statesman" lineup because they need a slasher. Then again, I see Gillis as the glue to provide muscle at the 3 and set the tone. I selected Furst to red-shirt because I want an extra year from one of the bigs when Edey graduates. Morton seems to be a pass-first PG, who can slash and dish but can hit the open shot when needed. I love Edey just like I loved Haas. Their D presence is overlooked but needed when the other team is slashing to the basket. There is a reason when they miss what should be layups.
 
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