FROM ESPN:Why Purdue might actually be just that good again and why it might still fail
Jeff Borzello, ESPN Staff Writer
Nov 30, 2023, 08:29 AM ET
Purdue's start to the 2023-24 season is eerily similar to its 2022-23 campaign. A couple of mid-major victories, followed by a win over a Big East opponent, followed by a Feast Week championship over a loaded field. This time around, the Boilermakers ran through an absolute gauntlet at the Maui Invitational, knocking off Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette.
And like last year, they exited Feast Week by ascending to the No. 1 ranking in the country.
They're hoping this season ends differently than last season, though, when they suffered a historic upset loss to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Has anything really changed about Purdue from last season? And are the Boilermakers better-positioned to win a national championship than a year ago?
What hasn't changed is Zach Edey, the reigning Wooden Award winner and consensus National Player of the Year.
Edey is just as dominant as he was a year ago. His numbers were actually slightly down in the opening two games of 2023-24, but Matt Painter fully unleashed him against Xavier and in the Maui Invitational, and Edey responded by averaging 26.0 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks on 56.5% shooting in that stretch.
In short, the 7-foot-4 center is still the best player in college basketball.
"Everybody can say we want to push him past eight feet. Great. Good luck with that," one opposing coach said. "Their playbook has 500 plays to get it to him in the right spot. They can run fake motion for a year and they'll still end up with him getting a post touch. Take that away, the offensive glass is always real. You can fight him on the glass, but eventually 7-foot-4, 300 pounds is gonna get a couple."
"He's a reigning National Player of the Year who's back. His sole focus is trying to win," another coach added. "Their best player's sole focus is trying to win the game. It's a simple, profound thing that makes a player special."
So, Edey is the same. But where has Purdue improved, and where might it still struggle? We asked a handful of opposing coaches for their early-season thoughts.
Consistent perimeter shooting the key moving forward
Through seven games, the biggest changes from an offensive perspective are Purdue's pace and perimeter shooting. The Boilermakers are playing faster, averaging 71.5 possessions per game compared to 64.2 last season, according to KenPom.
"They haven't played a Big Ten team yet, but they're clearly willing to play faster in transition off turnovers and misses," one coach who scouted Purdue said. "They're still slow off makes. But misses and turnovers, the pace is noticeably different from a scheme standpoint and a player standpoint."
"Part of the speed in transition is [Braden] Smith pushes it, [Fletcher] Loyer and [Lance] Jones really, really run for 3s," the coach added. "Watch the Xavier game, it's deceptive how badly they hurt Xavier in transition. Their ability to shoot 3s in transition is real."
And that's the other big area of improvement: 3-point shooting. Last season, Purdue ranked No. 276 nationally at 32.2%, only slightly better in Big Ten play at 34.1%. The Boilermakers were 5-for-26 in the NCAA tournament loss.
In a smaller sample size so far this season, Purdue is making 42.8% of its 3-pointers, No. 4 nationally. Four different players -- Smith, Jones, Loyer and Myles -- have all made at least 10.
"It's the ability to make 3s that makes them awfully challenging to guard," one opposing coach said. "You spend all your time thinking how many guys you commit to the paint, you try to muck it up, now you also have to defend the 3-point line. You get a little bit of a defensive rhythm against Edey, then they throw one in over the top. If you add shooting, they become very difficult to deal with. You have to guard the whole floor."
Major strides from Braden Smith
The point guard was one of the best freshmen in the country last season through the first few months, but had some struggles down the stretch. So far this campaign, it's clear he has taken the next step and improved his numbers in nearly every facet, including Tuesday's 19-point, 9-rebound, 10-assist performance against Texas Southern.
"He's gotten a lot better," one coach said. "Part of it is being a year older. The physicality. He was fantastic at the beginning of last season, but watching film of the end of last year, I didn't even recognize him. Now he's confident, plays with great pace."
Smith had trouble dealing with ball pressure late last season, most notably when he turned the ball over seven times in the NCAA tournament loss. But while he didn't score effectively against Zakai Zeigler and Tennessee in Hawaii last week, he's handling aggressive defenses better. Marquette tried to turn up the heat on him at times in the Maui Invitational title game, but he turned it over just twice and finished with 18 points, five assists and four 3s.
He's also shown the ability to score in the halfcourt outside of catch-and-shoot situations, making a combined 12 field goals against Xavier and Gonzaga without hitting a single 3 in either game.
"He has unbelievable command of their system, plus the way he's shooting the ball," an opposing coach said. "Off the catch, but especially off the bounce. Xavier dared him to shoot off the bounce, and he was absolutely fantastic. His pace, his ability to shoot. His ability to command what they do offensively, the trust that he's earned and rightfully earned. They're running significantly more ball-screens this year, because they trust the ball being in his hands."
The big addition: Lance Jones
Jones' commitment to Purdue last offseason didn't receive a ton of fanfare. He was a four-year starter at Southern Illinois and earned third-team All-Missouri Valley honors last season, averaging 12.7 points during his career in Carbondale.
But Painter inserted him right into the starting lineup, moving Ethan Morton to the bench, and multiple opposing coaches say he's completely changed Purdue's trajectory at both ends of the floor.
"He's the wild card. He gives them more pop," one coach said. "He can pressure defensively, he's tough, he brings quickness. He does some of those things offensively and he can get to his own shot. He can get downhill more. Now, there's a little more risk with him because he takes some deep ones. He'll take a contested shot here and there. But he raises the ceiling significantly."
The 6-1 guard, is averaging 10.3 points and 2.4 assists, shooting 38.2% from behind the arc. He had 13 points against the Zags in the Maui Invitational, made three 3s against Marquette in the title game and four more 3s against Texas Southern.
"He brings poise and shot-making," another opposing coach said. "Jones brings a lot of game experience to the table, he plays with tremendous poise, he's a complement to Smith and Loyer. He's an older guy who adds some basketball stuff and brings maturity and humility. He's OK playing his role. He went to Purdue to win."
Another personnel tweak Painter has made this season is putting 6-9 redshirt sophomore Kaufman-Renn into the starting lineup and moving Gillis and Caleb Furst -- who combined to start 36 games last season -- to the bench.
Gillis, a 6-6 senior, is a perimeter threat offensively who also crashes the glass. He's taken more 3s than 2s in all four seasons at Purdue and made nine treys in a game against Penn State last season. The 6-10 Furst is an inside-outside option, but his size allows him to back up Edey as well.
But Kaufman-Renn is a completely different proposition to the other two, a more physical option who does most of his damage around the rim.
"Kaufman-Renn has a grown-man body," one opposing coach said. "He brings some physicality, another guy who can put pressure on the rim. You work your ass off to box out one guy, and they've got another guy there. He brings that element to complement Edey. He's a competent offensive player. In terms of ability to go grab a rebound, go grab a loose ball, he's the type of player where you look up and he has four offensive rebounds, four or five baskets, he's made a couple of free throws."
While Kaufman-Renn has started all seven games, he's actually played fewer minutes (16.0 MPG) than Gillis (17.9 MPG), with Furst also heavily involved (13.7 MPG). Painter can mix and match depending on the opponent and situation.
"It allows them two totally different ways to play and they burn you both ways," another coach said. "Gillis makes 3s, he knows his role, he stretches the floor. Kaufman-Renn has become a very, very good low-block scorer. Efficiency-wise, he's probably up there with Edey. When he gets a block touch, it's a real entity to deal with. If he didn't have Edey next to him, he would be a legitimate go-to low-block scorer. Both crash the glass, both understand their roles. They have a different playbook when Gillis is in than they have with Kaufman-Renn."
Potential fatal flaws still there?
It all sounds great on paper, but Purdue also looked fantastic from that perspective for most of last season -- and then the Boilermakers lost four of six games last February and had the stunner in the NCAA tournament.
And despite the personnel adjustments and individual improvements this season, some of those potential issues could still pop up come March.
"You can turn them over in spurts. They don't have much perimeter depth, so a guy getting in foul trouble, a guy getting hurt could be a problem. Smith is still cutting his teeth in terms of being that secure guy late in games. The more experienced you are at that spot, it's vital," one coach said.
"They don't have a ton of quickness collectively. They can get spread out and get driven. If you can get the game going, the faster the pace of the game, that's the antithesis of what Edey is comfortable doing. He's worked hard at that and he's able to keep up, but when their best player is that size, you need to speed it up, spread it out, make it fast. But it's easy to say you want to impose your style; it's much harder to dictate your terms in the moment. And they still have guys that go make plays and deliver."
Multiple coaches, however, pointed to the mindset the Boilermakers are currently playing with. They wouldn't go as far as to say the Boilermakers could pull a Virginia (lose to a 16-seed, then win a national championship a year later), but they said the loss to Fairleigh Dickinson gives them a different level of motivation than nearly every other opponent.
"There's a real energy among that group. They're not f---ing around," one coach said. "They have guys back from that experience. They went through something unique to the sport that really hurt them, and they're really driven by that hurt. Their competitive edge is based on emotions they've gone through together."
"They have a chip on their shoulder, which is good," another coach added. "It's a group of dudes that are on the same page, they're all pulling in the right direction, they all came back for the same reason. They all do what gives them the best chance to succeed. Teams like that are good, let alone teams that have the National Player of the Year. I would give them as good a chance as anyone to win it."
