found this-What I would like to understand and I've never seen the data, but the previous 4 or 5 years total deaths per year and the model for those years. It is my understanding and perhaps wrong that there are expected more deaths per year than the previous year. None of that is to imply that there were not more deaths than the model prediction for 2020 before the virus was known, but merely to get a better magnitude on the difference in all deaths to remove the politics and see the difference from the models (before for accuracy) to get a real feel for the extra deaths due to the virus.
Without that understanding, you might be able to get somewhat close by using actuary tables "IF" you knew the number of people in a given year of the population, but that data I think was for 2016 and not sure when the model was refined for the 2016 data...but better than just numbers
According to the same estimates, 2,852,609 people died in 2019, meaning at least 334,000 more people have died so far in 2020 than 2019, despite missing or incomplete data for October through December. This is around what I saw last June of approx 900/day. What we need to know is the projection model for one comparison and an actuary table better than 2016 along with the population per age to get a good feel for the magnitude. That is too large a percent increase due to just population demographics or boomers...and so it 1)it idicates that the virus from China has caused excessive deaths beyond the normal flu season 2) it will be interesting to see if the deaths the next year are lower than projections we can't see or don't know claiming deaths a few months before normal mortality without the virus. )context should include both nursing home deaths and no nursing home deaths. This will be a non-issue when we are able to know more.
Virus caused excessive, or premature deaths, but how many?