Coronavirus Data

[tjreese]

What I would like to understand and I've never seen the data, but the previous 4 or 5 years total deaths per year and the model for those years. It is my understanding and perhaps wrong that there are expected more deaths per year than the previous year. None of that is to imply that there were not more deaths than the model prediction for 2020 before the virus was known, but merely to get a better magnitude on the difference in all deaths to remove the politics and see the difference from the models (before for accuracy) to get a real feel for the extra deaths due to the virus.

Without that understanding, you might be able to get somewhat close by using actuary tables "IF" you knew the number of people in a given year of the population, but that data I think was for 2016 and not sure when the model was refined for the 2016 data...but better than just numbers

found this-
According to the same estimates, 2,852,609 people died in 2019, meaning at least 334,000 more people have died so far in 2020 than 2019, despite missing or incomplete data for October through December. This is around what I saw last June of approx 900/day. What we need to know is the projection model for one comparison and an actuary table better than 2016 along with the population per age to get a good feel for the magnitude. That is too large a percent increase due to just population demographics or boomers...and so it 1)it idicates that the virus from China has caused excessive deaths beyond the normal flu season 2) it will be interesting to see if the deaths the next year are lower than projections we can't see or don't know claiming deaths a few months before normal mortality without the virus. )context should include both nursing home deaths and no nursing home deaths. This will be a non-issue when we are able to know more.

Virus caused excessive, or premature deaths, but how many?

 

[Beeazlebub]

Total confirmed deaths in the US:

60,966 through 4/30
102,836 through 5/30
126,140 through 6/30
150,713 through 7/30
182,779 through 8/30
205,998 through 9/30
228,668 through 10/30
268,045 through 11/30
342,318 through 12/30
439,530 through 01/30

446,885 through 02/02
459,555 through 02/05
465,109 through 02/08
475,444 through 02/11

7 Day average

+3090 on 02/02
+3251 on 02/05
+2899 on 02/08
+2781 on 02/11

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

[Beeazlebub]

Total confirmed deaths in the US:

60,966 through 4/30
102,836 through 5/30
126,140 through 6/30
150,713 through 7/30
182,779 through 8/30
205,998 through 9/30
228,668 through 10/30
268,045 through 11/30
342,318 through 12/30
439,530 through 01/30

446,885 through 02/02
459,555 through 02/05
465,109 through 02/08
475,444 through 02/11
485,336 through 02/14

7 Day average

+3090 on 02/02
+3251 on 02/05
+2899 on 02/08
+2781 on 02/11
+3118 on 02/14

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

[Beeazlebub]

In good news, Daily cases have been decreasing globally

 

[gr8indoorsman]

found this-
According to the same estimates, 2,852,609 people died in 2019, meaning at least 334,000 more people have died so far in 2020 than 2019, despite missing or incomplete data for October through December. This is around what I saw last June of approx 900/day. What we need to know is the projection model for one comparison and an actuary table better than 2016 along with the population per age to get a good feel for the magnitude. That is too large a percent increase due to just population demographics or boomers...and so it 1)it idicates that the virus from China has caused excessive deaths beyond the normal flu season 2) it will be interesting to see if the deaths the next year are lower than projections we can't see or don't know claiming deaths a few months before normal mortality without the virus. )context should include both nursing home deaths and no nursing home deaths. This will be a non-issue when we are able to know more.

Virus caused excessive, or premature deaths, but how many?

"Totally normal trend. You don't know it's because of the hoax virus." - New Pal Boiler

 

[gr8indoorsman]

In good news, Daily cases have been decreasing globally

I'm having a pretty tough time squaring data with experts who are still sounding alarms about all the new variants. We've had UK variant in SD county for a month now, and still a precipitous decline... but we've got UCSD professors saying to double mask, double down on closures and stay at home orders or else things will risk an unprecedented explosion of cases again in April.

4+% of the county is vaccinated thus far. (The real number is probably higher because a lot of active duty and DOD contractors have additional access to the vaccine that the public does not). Then include the fact that roughly 8% of the population in CA has already had the virus, and that seems to provide some level of immunity from near-term infection.

By April, we won't have near herd immunity, but could have in the 30-40% vaccinated range at the current pace... not sure how that equates to a "blow up" of cases, and this particular UCSD official strikes me as the Porter Stansberry of epidemiology.

As I've watched the data, the county dashboard's metrics are outdated, and need to shift from setting expectations from where we were in May to where we are now, and begin exploring the real possibility that this virus will be endemic, and start getting on with our lives as such.

 

[tjreese]

"Totally normal trend. You don't know it's because of the hoax virus." - New Pal Boiler

Simply, I cannot quantify with confidence an accuracy on the number of deaths related to the virus for me. Other’s might find contentment…I don’t know. There are more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, but as I understand that was expected before the virus was known. So in my mind, I would like to understand the model used for deaths in 2020 which I assume was modified every year for accuracy and see what is different in what is known versus the predictions and the standard errors of that model for any type of confidence. I also wonder if 2020 borrowed a few months the predicted deaths in 2021 due to the virus, which would then show up the next year.

The only thing available I’m aware is the 2016 social security data on mortality and I can’t find a breakdown by year on the population in the USA to even be able to use the 2016 data. I believe there are “extra deaths” in 2020 due to virus, but trying to actually state the extent of the extra deaths (if as I believe is probable not knowing the model) would be a guess from me

 

[70boiler]

Lest the argument continue, the decrease of life expectancy in the U.S. by a year overall, and being the largest drop since WWII would seem to decide the issue of lethality of Covid

US life expectancy drops a year in pandemic, most since WWII

Health experts say numbers show impact pandemic has had on society at large

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Beeazlebub]

Total confirmed deaths in the US:

60,966 through 4/30
102,836 through 5/30
126,140 through 6/30
150,713 through 7/30
182,779 through 8/30
205,998 through 9/30
228,668 through 10/30
268,045 through 11/30
342,318 through 12/30
439,530 through 01/30

446,885 through 02/02
459,555 through 02/05
465,109 through 02/08
475,444 through 02/11
485,336 through 02/14
490,825 through 02/17
497,648 through 02/20

7 Day average

+3090 on 02/02
+3251 on 02/05
+2899 on 02/08
+2781 on 02/11
+3118 on 02/14
+2047 on 02/17
+1850 on 02/20

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

[gleap1969]

Caught Hegseth this morning broadcasting from a diner in Florida and was struck by his comment it was nice not seeing people wearing masks. So, for those who wonder about California v Florida, or strict mitigation v almost none, here is this article: https://www.healthline.com/health-n...covid-19-case-rates-the-answer-is-complicated
I'll take Vermont and Hawaii over North and South Dakota, and California over Florida.

 

[Beeazlebub]

Total confirmed deaths in the US:

60,966 through 4/30
102,836 through 5/30
126,140 through 6/30
150,713 through 7/30
182,779 through 8/30
205,998 through 9/30
228,668 through 10/30
268,045 through 11/30
342,318 through 12/30
439,530 through 01/30

446,885 through 02/02
459,555 through 02/05
465,109 through 02/08
475,444 through 02/11
485,336 through 02/14
490,825 through 02/17
497,648 through 02/20
502,679 through 02/23
510,458 through 02/26
514,657 through 03/01

7 Day average

+3090 on 02/02
+3251 on 02/05
+2899 on 02/08
+2781 on 02/11
+3118 on 02/14
+2047 on 02/17
+1850 on 02/20
+2015 on 02/23
+2075 on 02/26
+2046 on 03/01

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

[Beeazlebub]

Total confirmed deaths in the US:

60,966 through 4/30
102,836 through 5/30
126,140 through 6/30
150,713 through 7/30
182,779 through 8/30
205,998 through 9/30
228,668 through 10/30
268,045 through 11/30
342,318 through 12/30
439,530 through 01/30
513,292 through 02/28

514,657 through 03/01
524,119 through 03/04
525,041 through 03/07
529,264 through 03/10

7 Day rolling average

+2046 on 03/01
+1777 on 03/04
+1678 on 03/07
+1437 on 03/10


https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths