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Your Predictions on the Midterms

Actually, the last polling from Real Clear stated Trump at 19-21% among African-American voters.

Let's play a game called let's pick the outliers!

YouGov/Economist: 10% approval
NPR/PBS/Marist: 10% approval
Wall Street Journal/NBC News: 11% approval
ABC News/Washington Post: 7%
YouGov/Economist #2: 13% approval

Rasmussen Reports: 40% approval
Fox News "non-white": 29% approval

Keep telling yourself that "the blacks" love Donald.
 
Looks like the Democrats have won control of the House of Representatives. With some tight races still left, it appears to be in the range of 228-230 (D) and 205-207 (R) when all is said and down....a good night for the Democrats on that side of Congress. Despite some of the angst within their ranks over leadership positions, I think the odds are that Nancy Pelosi (D - CA's 12th district) will return to the speakership position in the new Congress in 2019. The minority positions within the Republican ranks could be interesting.

This is an above average result for the mid-term election of the party opposite the sitting President.

The Republicans had a good night with respect to the Senate. Historically, picking up Senate seats in a mid-term election for the President's party doesn't happen very often, but it was a unique senatorial map this time around. It also looks like the Arizona seat from Jeff Flake's retirement and incumbent Democrat Jon Tester's seat in Montana could go into "overtime." The Republicans have razor thin advantages at this point but with votes still coming in. Mississippi's election will go to a run-off, although it's expected the Republican candidate would prevail as the third place Republican had a significant tally.

Looking at the two undecided races, the Senate would be between 55-53 (R) and 45-47 (D). Republicans were able to change seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. Democrats change the seat in Nevada defeating Heller.

Now we start a new election cycle....2020......and so on....and so on.

I need a beverage......it's almost 5:00 somewhere.
 
Let's play a game called let's pick the outliers!

YouGov/Economist: 10% approval
NPR/PBS/Marist: 10% approval
Wall Street Journal/NBC News: 11% approval
ABC News/Washington Post: 7%
YouGov/Economist #2: 13% approval

Rasmussen Reports: 40% approval
Fox News "non-white": 29% approval

Keep telling yourself that "the blacks" love Donald.
Compared to his recent R counterparts, he’s doing quite a bit better. Not great, but still appreciably better. What happens if Trump can peel off 15-20% AA vote from the Ds due to his policies. That’s a bad sign for the Ds.
 
That's a great call. Hopefully he'll get his butt whooped! A

He poses a lot of problems for the GOP. Young, fresh face, positive message, the anti-Trump.

I'm sure Trump will come up with some stupidass nickname soon, but he won't be able to work with the baggage that Hillary had.

Beto will trounce Trump.
 
He poses a lot of problems for the GOP. Young, fresh face, positive message, the anti-Trump.

I'm sure Trump will come up with some stupidass nickname soon, but he won't be able to work with the baggage that Hillary had.

Beto will trounce Trump.

I agree with you your assessment of Beto, and yes, Trump will find some kind of nickname

But I hope you are wrong about 2020!! But I am amazed at the outpouring of support he has gotten post-election.
 
He poses a lot of problems for the GOP. Young, fresh face, positive message, the anti-Trump.

I'm sure Trump will come up with some stupidass nickname soon, but he won't be able to work with the baggage that Hillary had.

Beto will trounce Trump.
Where was Beto's father on November 22nd, 1963? ;)
 
He poses a lot of problems for the GOP. Young, fresh face, positive message, the anti-Trump.

I'm sure Trump will come up with some stupidass nickname soon, but he won't be able to work with the baggage that Hillary had.

Beto will trounce Trump.
Robert Francis O'Rourke is a former San Antonio councilman. He has no real political experience, yet the media portrays him as a Kennedy-like politician. Trump will kill this neophyte with his calls to abolish ICE, to have Medicare for all, free this and free that. He is just another naïve Progressive lunatic who will have no chance to win a national election against Trump. He is too radical. Please Ds, stake your future on this guy. That's a winning proposition.
 
I agree with you your assessment of Beto, and yes, Trump will find some kind of nickname

But I hope you are wrong about 2020!! But I am amazed at the outpouring of support he has gotten post-election.
Unwarranted support. It just tells you how desperate the Ds are to find a viable candidate for 2020. They don't have one.
 
I set my expectations too low because I thought the dems would fail to take the house.

I’ve been doom and gloom for 2 years now but I am going to take this result in the other way. A lot of encouraging signs for progressive minded inviduals last night, particularly in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, all states (outside of Minnesota) trump would be required to win in 2020 to win re-election. Texas was also fairly encouraging.

The only big time downers were Florida and Georgia, for me. If you want to know why republicans attack voting rights and attempt to suppress the vote as much as possible, look no further than the results of these two states.
 
Robert Francis O'Rourke is a former San Antonio councilman. He has no real political experience, yet the media portrays him as a Kennedy-like politician. Trump will kill this neophyte with his calls to abolish ICE, to have Medicare for all, free this and free that. He is just another naïve Progressive lunatic who will have no chance to win a national election against Trump. He is too radical. Please Ds, stake your future on this guy. That's a winning proposition.

Haha frantically scrambling to find any possible criticisms that might hurt him.

Deep breath - you two years to try out different talking points!
 
Haha frantically scrambling to find any possible criticisms that might hurt him.

Deep breath - you two years to try out different talking points!
Dude, you’ve got it all wrong. O’Rourke doesn’t scare me or most Rs I know in the least. If he had beaten Cruz, I might take him more seriously. He didn’t. His positions are too extreme for most of America. The coastal elites might love him, but the Midwest, South, Mountain West, and most of the SW will not.
 
I set my expectations too low because I thought the dems would fail to take the house.

I’ve been doom and gloom for 2 years now but I am going to take this result in the other way. A lot of encouraging signs for progressive minded inviduals last night, particularly in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, all states (outside of Minnesota) trump would be required to win in 2020 to win re-election. Texas was also fairly encouraging.

The only big time downers were Florida and Georgia, for me. If you want to know why republicans attack voting rights and attempt to suppress the vote as much as possible, look no further than the results of these two states.
The House elections tend to be more local than Senate elections. If anything, Ds should be worried. They lost seats by trying to repudiate Trump. The Kavanaugh fiasco cost Ds big-time. IN, MO, ND, FL, and MT say hello.
 
The House elections tend to be more local than Senate elections. If anything, Ds should be worried. They lost seats by trying to repudiate Trump. The Kavanaugh fiasco cost Ds big-time. IN, MO, ND, FL, and MT say hello.
I think Mike Braun would have beaten Joe Donnelly in deep red Indiana even if Kavanaugh would have never come along.Donnelly was Indianas first Senator to be denied a second term since 1946.Ray Willis was the incumbent Repulican that year but he was beaten by William Jenner for re nomination at the state convention.Indiana nominated Senate and Gubernatorial candidates at state conventions until the 1970s.Maybe states should go back to that way of nominating candidates since primary turnouts are usually weak.Bill Jenner served two terms then retired in 1958,having been a close Senate ally of Joe McCarthy.
 
I think Mike Braun would have beaten Joe Donnelly in deep red Indiana even if Kavanaugh would have never come along.Donnelly was Indianas first Senator to be denied a second term since 1946.Ray Willis was the incumbent Repulican that year but he was beaten by William Jenner for re nomination at the state convention.Indiana nominated Senate and Gubernatorial candidates at state conventions until the 1970s.Maybe states should go back to that way of nominating candidates since primary turnouts are usually weak.Bill Jenner served two terms then retired in 1958,having been a close Senate ally of Joe McCarthy.
Not so sure about that, if you believe the polls. Donnelly consistently polled ahead of Braun by 2-4% for months, but after the Kavanaugh fiasco, Braun and President Trump clubbed Donnelly on that issue continually. Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. It’s not like Donnelly was terribly unpopular, especially around Indy and South Bend. That issue hurt him bad, as did Donnelly’s vote against the tax cut.
 
Not so sure about that, if you believe the polls. Donnelly consistently polled ahead of Braun by 2-4% for months, but after the Kavanaugh fiasco, Braun and President Trump clubbed Donnelly on that issue continually. Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. It’s not like Donnelly was terribly unpopular, especially around Indy and South Bend. That issue hurt him bad, as did Donnelly’s vote against the tax cut.
The polls were way off,again.Nobody saw Braun winning by 10 points,as most of them had Donnelly as a slight favorite the day before the election.I will never believe the polls in any race again.The Dem party in Indiana is very weak,with the GOP having super majorities in both houses and the Dems picked up a whopping three seats out of 100 in the State House of Reps.O,and they gained one out of fifty in the State Senate,were wiped out badly in seven of nine House seats,lost the races for State Auditor,Secretary of State and Treasurer.The table was set ,for Braun .The Dems are weak in Indiana and they have won only 3 of the last 16 Senate races,and 4 of the last 13 Governors contests.Evan Bayh gave them four of the seven victories they have in the last four decades.They need to burn it down and start over.
Not so sure about that, if you believe the polls. Donnelly consistently polled ahead of Braun by 2-4% for months, but after the Kavanaugh fiasco, Braun and President Trump clubbed Donnelly on that issue continually. Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. It’s not like Donnelly was terribly unpopular, especially around Indy and South Bend. That issue hurt him bad, as did Donnelly’s vote against the tax cut.
 
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The polls were way off,again.Nobody saw Braun winning by 10 points,as most of them had Donnelly as a slight favorite the day before the election.I will never believe the polls in any race again.The Dem party in Indiana is very weak,with the GOP having super majorities in both houses and the Dems picked up a whopping three seats out of 100 in the State House of Reps.O,and they gained one out of fifty in the State Senate,were wiped out badly in seven of nine House seats,lost the races for State Auditor,Secretary of State and Treasurer.The table was set ,for Braun .The Dems are weak in Indiana and they have won only 3 of the last 16 Senate races,and 4 of the last 13 Governors contests.Evan Bayh gave them four of the seven victories they have in the last four decades.They need to burn it down and start over.
Indiana is a Red State but will vote Democratic if a good candidate is on the ticket, especially for state and county positions.
I think Indiana voters were sick and tired of the democratic rhetoric and divisiveness and pulled the elephant by the tail.
In local races some very good democratic candidates lost elections.
 
You must have a very short term memory. The economy does better under Democrats than Republicans, Trump is benefiting from where the economy was left under Obama. Turns out when you put plans in place to help 99% of people instead of just the wealthiest 1% the economy as a whole does better.
Extraordinary economy under BHO???? Record unemployment, businesses closing doors, welfare roles exploding, extension of unemployment to two years....Yeah, sure. TIC
 
The polls were way off,again.Nobody saw Braun winning by 10 points,as most of them had Donnelly as a slight favorite the day before the election.I will never believe the polls in any race again.The Dem party in Indiana is very weak,with the GOP having super majorities in both houses and the Dems picked up a whopping three seats out of 100 in the State House of Reps.O,and they gained one out of fifty in the State Senate,were wiped out badly in seven of nine House seats,lost the races for State Auditor,Secretary of State and Treasurer.The table was set ,for Braun .The Dems are weak in Indiana and they have won only 3 of the last 16 Senate races,and 4 of the last 13 Governors contests.Evan Bayh gave them four of the seven victories they have in the last four decades.They need to burn it down and start over.
The polls weren't way off again, they weren't way off last time either. People who post shit like this have no grasp of how statistics work. Polling last night was incredibly accurate on the whole. 538 batted >94% as of last night on congressional race, considering how many were 1 or 2 pount races that's insanely good.

Braun also didn't win by 10 points.
 
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The House elections tend to be more local than Senate elections. If anything, Ds should be worried. They lost seats by trying to repudiate Trump. The Kavanaugh fiasco cost Ds big-time. IN, MO, ND, FL, and MT say hello.
People acting like any of this was a referendum on Kavanaugh is just confirmation bias at this point. One of the states you list literally had a candidate win by more than he had in his previous two elections. TN had a candidate tank after he said he would vote to confirm him. On the whole nationwide he was an unpopular nominee. I'm not expressing an opinion on his confirmation but acting like there was a trend in the data as a result means you made a decision before looking at the data. The only state it may have had a legitimate impact in was IN, which is still incredibly shaky considering where Donnellys numbers suffered wasn't in the center.

If you're trying to argue that the results of the house elections was a result of local issues though it's apparent you're unrealistic or have a poor understanding of math. It's statistically impossible for what happened in the last election, considering local base dynamics, to have not been the result of a national push.

If you're going to form an opinion on things like this it would be better to take an objective look at numbers rather than going off your feelings.
 
Extraordinary economy under BHO???? Record unemployment, businesses closing doors, welfare roles exploding, extension of unemployment to two years....Yeah, sure. TIC
Unemployment rate was 4.7% when Obama left office, look at facts instead of what the propaganda fed you.
 
The polls weren't way off again, they weren't way off last time either. People who post shit like this have no grasp of how statistics work. Polling last night was incredibly accurate on the whole. 538 batted >94% as of last night on congressional race, considering how many were 1 or 2 pount races that's insanely good.

Braun also didn't win by 10 points.
Braun did win by ONLY seven points but I still think the pollsters were off on that one.
 
Braun did win by ONLY seven points but I still think the pollsters were off on that one.
Yes, specifically polls were off in Indiana although the late polls on 538 at least looked like it was shifting but I didn't expect 7 either.

I took from your post that you thought the polling/projections were off in general which they weren't. My bad if I misread.
 
Yes, specifically polls were off in Indiana although the late polls on 538 at least looked like it was shifting but I didn't expect 7 either.

I took from your post that you thought the polling/projections were off in general which they weren't. My bad if I misread.
Thank you.I just meant they were off in Indiana.Do you know who Maria Cantwell is?She is a Democrat and Indy native who just got elected to her fourth term as Senator from Washington.I knew her Dad,Paul Cantwell who served the Indy City Council for years .Since she wanted to be elected as a Dem,she was smart to move out of Indiana.
 
Thank you.I just meant they were off in Indiana.Do you know who Maria Cantwell is?She is a Democrat and Indy native who just got elected to her fourth term as Senator from Washington.I knew her Dad,Paul Cantwell who served the Indy City Council for years .Since she wanted to be elected as a Dem,she was smart to move out of Indiana.
I do not, but I agree it's just the reality of the situation.

I don't think Braun was a great candidate but I think he was a good enough one. Donnelly seems like a nice guy but he was in a really difficult situation, and wasn't good enough to overcome it.

Ohio, Mass, Maryland showed really strong candidates can still win convincingly in difficult places. Those guys deserve a ton of credit.
 
I do not, but I agree it's just the reality of the situation.

I don't think Braun was a great candidate but I think he was a good enough one. Donnelly seems like a nice guy but he was in a really difficult situation, and wasn't good enough to overcome it.

Ohio, Mass, Maryland showed really strong candidates can still win convincingly in difficult places. Those guys deserve a ton of credit.
MA and MD were much harder than OH, IMO. DeWine had strong name recognition and Trump won OH rather handily in 2016. I have lots of family in OH. Most people I know back there hated Kasich after 2016. He was so angry that he lost to Trump, a man who he felt was an inferior candidate. Kasich has the charisma of a turnip and a huge ego. Most Ohioans I know like DeWine much better than Kasich, at least for now.

Don’t know if you also saw the CT governor’s race? R Bob Stefanowski, a former GE executive, banking manager, and political neophyte, gave Ned Lamont a very strong run for his money. Lamont was painted as Dan Malloy, part deaux - a tax and spend liberal intent on protecting public sector unions and raising taxes and implementing tolls. Stephanowski was painted as being Trumpian and uncaring. The Trumpian part seemed to stick.

Stepanowski performed better than expectations and Lamont was kind of a crackpot, saying some dumb things on the campaign trail. In the end, it’s obvious that cracking deep blue CT is very tough as the bigger cities went 80/20+ Lamont. The state map is bright red except for pockets of blue around Bridgeport, Hartford, Waterbury, etc. and a few outlier towns in central CT and lower Fairfield County, which is like the suburbs of NYC.

BTW, Ds always talk about gerrymandering as if only the Rs do it. CT is a prime example of D gerrymandering. It’s pretty prevalent in MD, MA, and NY, too.
 
You must have a very short term memory. The economy does better under Democrats than Republicans, Trump is benefiting from where the economy was left under Obama. Turns out when you put plans in place to help 99% of people instead of just the wealthiest 1% the economy as a whole does better.
Another freezing cold take. You’re really bad at this but this is what happens when left wing cult propaganda rots a brain out.
 
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