Your Predictions on the Midterms

[Scheffler90]

With the midterms 3 weeks out, figured it would be interesting to get peoples take on what will happen election night in terms of numbers. Equally fun to check them the day after to see what we got right and wrong.

So reply with:
- Seat split in the House
- Seat split in Senate (maybe add some of your guesses on toss-up races).

My guess:

House: Dems take House 226 - 209.

Senate : GOP holds 51-49
- GOP flips: Missouri and ND
- Dem flips: Tenessee and Arizona
- GOP holds: TX and Nevada
- Dem holds: Fla, WV and Indiana

I think if not for the Kavanaugh mess, the Dems may have picked up more seats, but there was a noticable change in Senate chances for them right when Kav gave his speech.

If you follow polling, many are predicting a bigger house landslide (538 currently has 234-201 house split). I'm more cautious given what we saw in 2016. But the erosion of Independent voters for the President from Nov 2016 to today will be a difference maker. I think both bases will be fired up.

 

[Matt Tiger]

The only prediction I will make is everyone will be glad when its over with...

 

[SDBoiler1]

With the midterms 3 weeks out, figured it would be interesting to get peoples take on what will happen election night in terms of numbers. Equally fun to check them the day after to see what we got right and wrong.

So reply with:
- Seat split in the House
- Seat split in Senate (maybe add some of your guesses on toss-up races).

My guess:

House: Dems take House 226 - 209.

Senate : GOP holds 51-49
- GOP flips: Missouri and ND
- Dem flips: Tenessee and Arizona
- GOP holds: TX and Nevada
- Dem holds: Fla, WV and Indiana

I think if not for the Kavanaugh mess, the Dems may have picked up more seats, but there was a noticable change in Senate chances for them right when Kav gave his speech.

If you follow polling, many are predicting a bigger house landslide (538 currently has 234-201 house split). I'm more cautious given what we saw in 2016. But the erosion of Independent voters for the President from Nov 2016 to today will be a difference maker. I think both bases will be fired up.

The current House split is 236 R,193 D, 6 Vacancies

So you’re saying the Ds will pick up 33 seats and the Rs will lose 37. I don’t know which party holds which vacancies.

I think the Ds will pick up 27 seats and it will become 220 D, 215 R. It will be gridlock in the House.

Senate:
Rs gain seats in MO, ND, and MT. Tester’s vote against Kavanaugh sinks him. Rs hold AZ, NV, TN, TX.

Ds gain 0. Ds hold FL, IN, NJ, MN, WV, WI. After the election Joe Manchin announces he will caucus with Rs due to enormous popularity of Trump in WV.

Final tally: R +4. R 55, D 45

 

[miksta]

Enthusiam gap is massive and the Senate is split 50/50 after the MS special. Murkowski becomes independent but caucuses with the Ds to give them control. She still votes fairly reliably Republican, though.

 

[Scheffler90]

The current House split is 236 R,193 D, 6 Vacancies

So you’re saying the Ds will pick up 33 seats and the Rs will lose 37. I don’t know which party holds which vacancies.

I think the Ds will pick up 27 seats and it will become 220 D, 215 R. It will be gridlock in the House.

Senate:
Rs gain seats in MO, ND, and MT. Tester’s vote against Kavanaugh sinks him. Rs hold AZ, NV, TN, TX.

Ds gain 0. Ds hold FL, IN, NJ, MN, WV, WI. After the election Joe Manchin announces he will caucus with Rs due to enormous popularity of Trump in WV.

Final tally: R +4. R 55, D 45

Thanks SD.

If there is going to be a lingering "Kavanaugh effect", it will be in the Senate. It's interesting if you look at the polling from the week the Kav/Ford hearings commenced, the numbers in both the House and Senate started trending more towards R's on both sides. 1 week later, the "gains' in polling for R's in the House evaporated, while the gains in the Senate held firm. Perhaps having Di-Fi and Senator Spartacus in your caucus is not helpful.

In the 6 vacant seats, right now it looks like Rs will take 4 and Ds will take 2. That's a net +1 for Dems as the split was 5-1 Rs in terms of the incumbents. Only NY-25 was a D seat.

 

[SDBoiler1]

Enthusiam gap is massive and the Senate is split 50/50 after the MS special. Murkowski becomes independent but caucuses with the Ds to give them control. She still votes fairly reliably Republican, though.

This will not happen. There is no evidence that the so-called enthusiasm gap is that large, especially after the Kavanaugh charade. Murkowski will not cross over even though she often acts like a D.

 

[Scheffler90]

This will not happen. There is no evidence that the so-called enthusiasm gap is that large, especially after the Kavanaugh charade. Murkowski will not cross over even though she often acts like a D.

I thought the enthusiasm gap was at 10 in September, but crashed after the Kav hearings. I havent seen a poll on that in a a week or two.

 

[SDBoiler1]

I thought the enthusiasm gap was at 10 in September, but crashed after the Kav hearings. I havent seen a poll on that in a a week or two.

Last one I saw had it at 2 - easily within the MOE. Statistically tied.

 

[Scheffler90]

Last one I saw had it at 2 - easily within the MOE. Statistically tied.

Yup. Thats the same poll I saw.

 

[miksta]

lol my proposed scenario is basically as likely as Rs getting to 55. Just threw it out there to provide some much-needed balance on this board.

Most likely scenario is Rs keeping majority at 50-52 seats.

If it's 50/50, you better bet there's going to be a STRONG temptation anong at least one R to have a moment in the spotlight and tip the power balance.

 

[miksta]

But yes, you're 100% right. Republicans are charged up and this is in the bag. No need to go out to vote! Enjoy your relaxing election day!

 

[SDBoiler1]

lol my proposed scenario is basically as likely as Rs getting to 55. Just threw it out there to provide some much-needed balance on this board.

Most likely scenario is Rs keeping majority at 50-52 seats.

If it's 50/50, you better bet there's going to be a STRONG temptation anong at least one R to have a moment in the spotlight and tip the power balance.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers. Reputable outfits like RCP show Rs +3. Right there is Rs 54, Ds 46, and the trend is that the Rs are gaining momentum after the Kavanaugh charade. It's possible that the Rs have an upside surprise to that. Rs 50, Ds 50 is a pipedream, man. Not going to happen. Ds are defending way too many seats in unfriendly territory. Too many vulnerable D Senators. Just a fact.

 

[miksta]

I don't know where you're getting your numbers. Reputable outfits like RCP show Rs +3. Right there is Rs 54, Ds 46, and the trend is that the Rs are gaining momentum after the Kavanaugh charade. It's possible that the Rs have an upside surprise to that. Rs 50, Ds 50 is a pipedream, man. Not going to happen. Ds are defending way too many seats in unfriendly territory. Too many vulnerable D Senators. Just a fact.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

 

[hunkgolden]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

538 said Hillary had a 71% chance of winning.

 

[miksta]

538 said Hillary had a 71% chance of winning.

Statistically illiterate "criticism."

 

[hunkgolden]

Statistically illiterate "criticism."

No criticism - just stating fact. I'm sorry you took it the wrong way.

 

[miksta]

No criticism - just stating fact. I'm sorry you took it the wrong way.

What was your motivation for stating that?

 

[hunkgolden]

What was your motivation for stating that?

You brought up 538 and I thought that little factoid was interesting. Why so defensive? Are you related to Nate Silver?

 

[miksta]

You brought up 538 and I thought that little factoid was interesting. Why so defensive? Are you related to Nate Silver?

What was the point of sharing that factoid randomly? You just like adding unnecessary noise to discussions?

 

[ComradeRedBoilermaker]

democrats do not take house and senate, things continue on as they are

 

[TwinDegrees2]

With the midterms 3 weeks out, figured it would be interesting to get peoples take on what will happen election night in terms of numbers. Equally fun to check them the day after to see what we got right and wrong.

So reply with:
- Seat split in the House
- Seat split in Senate (maybe add some of your guesses on toss-up races).

My guess:

House: Dems take House 226 - 209.

Senate : GOP holds 51-49
- GOP flips: Missouri and ND
- Dem flips: Tenessee and Arizona
- GOP holds: TX and Nevada
- Dem holds: Fla, WV and Indiana

I think if not for the Kavanaugh mess, the Dems may have picked up more seats, but there was a noticable change in Senate chances for them right when Kav gave his speech.

If you follow polling, many are predicting a bigger house landslide (538 currently has 234-201 house split). I'm more cautious given what we saw in 2016. But the erosion of Independent voters for the President from Nov 2016 to today will be a difference maker. I think both bases will be fired up.

GOP gains in the House and become a larger majority @ 243 seats.
GOP gains four seats in the senate to have a bullet proof majority
Trump wins in 2020 for a second term.

 

[miksta]

GOP gains in the House and become a larger majority @ 243 seats.
GOP gains four seats in the senate to have a bullet proof majority
Trump wins in 2020 for a second term.

Care to take even odds on that House bet? If the GOP gets 241+ seats?

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Ds are pouring a lot of money and effort into the mids. I know Comstock is under full assault from the ads on TV.

 

[Purdue97]

lol my proposed scenario is basically as likely as Rs getting to 55. Just threw it out there to provide some much-needed balance on this board.

Most likely scenario is Rs keeping majority at 50-52 seats.

If it's 50/50, you better bet there's going to be a STRONG temptation anong at least one R to have a moment in the spotlight and tip the power balance.

Well if there is a 50/50 split things went south real quick for Republicans in the next few weeks. Even then, if one Republican wants to grab headlines and not go with party, there are several/will be several Democrat Senators that likely will do the same the other way. Neither action is a bad thing to be honest. No reason to go with party 100% of time.

 

[miksta]

Ds are pouring a lot of money and effort into the mids. I know Comstock is under full assault from the ads on TV.

Beto is accumulating a nice little stash to kick off his 2020 POTUS run after he loses in two weeks.

 

[Scheffler90]

GOP gains in the House and become a larger majority @ 243 seats.
GOP gains four seats in the senate to have a bullet proof majority
Trump wins in 2020 for a second term.

I think your senate pick may come true. It would involve several "coin flips" all coming up on the Republican side, but it's certainly not impossible.

I think your House guess is very unlikely, as it stands today. Right now it would be a very hard hill to climb for the Rs to hold the house, much less add any. A lot of races that are now 60-40 Dem leads would have to flip back to R...and do it in 14 days. There is likely to be some skew in the polling, as 2016 demonstrated, but for it to be in the neighborhood of 20-25% would be pretty astounding. That said, nothing would surprise me.

 

[SDBoiler1]

Beto is accumulating a nice little stash to kick off his 2020 POTUS run after he loses in two weeks.

Beto O'Rourke has almost no zero political experience and almost no other real work experience, either, for that matter. Outside of having a nice hairdo, what exactly does he bring to the table? If Ds are pinning their hopes on this guy, or Spartacus, or Kamala Harris, or Fauxchahontas, they are really in trouble.

 

[miksta]

Beto O'Rourke has almost no zero political experience and almost no other real work experience, either, for that matter. Outside of having a nice hairdo, what exactly does he bring to the table? If Ds are pinning their hopes on this guy, or Spartacus, or Kamala Harris, or Fauxchahontas, they are really in trouble.

Lol k

Which D would make you nervous as a candidate?

 

[SDBoiler1]

Lol k

Which D would make you nervous as a candidate?

None make me nervous, but Biden would probably do better vs. Trump than the others.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Lol k

Which D would make you nervous as a candidate?

HIllary....and she will be the nominee of the left wing radical left again.

 

[Purdue97]

Beto is accumulating a nice little stash to kick off his 2020 POTUS run after he loses in two weeks.

He would likely be the best Democrat candidate so far. Young, well spoken, physically in decent shape(yes that matters in life). He is not one that people see and are just turned off by. Does not carry the baggage that Warren, Booker, Biden, or Harris do. Maybe just left of center overall.

Personally, I think he made a bit of a mistake by attacking Cruz is in their debate. I think he did it because he had refrained from it then was shown slipping in polls. That said, on a national stage, at this point, I really think people would gravitate toward the person that carries them self professionally, well spoken, and has well thought out answers to questions.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

He would likely be the best Democrat candidate so far. Young, well spoken, physically in decent shape(yes that matters in life). He is not one that people see and are just turned off by. Does not carry the baggage that Warren, Booker, Biden, or Harris do. Maybe just left of center overall.

Personally, I think he made a bit of a mistake by attacking Cruz is in their debate. I think he did it because he had refrained from it then was shown slipping in polls. That said, on a national stage, at this point, I really think people would gravitate toward the person that carries them self professionally, well spoken, and has well thought out answers to questions.

He's as liberal as Booker.

 

[indy35]

All the Republicans have left is identity politics. The tax cut for the wealthy was a big loser, not galvanizing support in any way. They've been upfront in wanting to cut the social safety net after the midterms. The global view of the US has plummeted. Hateful rhetoric toward minorities is the only game plan they have.

 

[SDBoiler1]

All the Republicans have left is identity politics. The tax cut for the wealthy was a big loser, not galvanizing support in any way. They've been upfront in wanting to cut the social safety net after the midterms. The global view of the US has plummeted. Hateful rhetoric toward minorities is the only game plan they have.

I don’t think you have a clue as to what the term identity politics means.

Here’s what the Ds do regularly - play demographics off of each other:

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

“They cling to their guns and their religion.”
“They are deplorable, irredeemable.”

If the Ds didn’t have the identity politics card to play, they’d have almost no platform to run on anymore. People aren’t buying their extreme regulations and environmental excesses. They aren’t buying their socialized medicine. They aren’t buying free college. They aren’t buying Resist Trump as a platform plank. Progressive socialism is not the answer for our nation. Never was and never will be.

 

[indy35]

I don’t think you have a clue as to what the term identity politics means.

Here’s what the Ds do regularly - play demographics off of each other:

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

“They cling to their guns and their religion.”
“They are deplorable, irredeemable.”

If the Ds didn’t have the identity politics card to play, they’d have almost no platform to run on anymore. People aren’t buying their extreme regulations and environmental excesses. They aren’t buying their socialized medicine. They aren’t buying free college. They aren’t buying Resist Trump as a platform plank. Progressive socialism is not the answer for our nation. Never was and never will be.

Identity politics, The Rs frame arguments playing these groups against each other. Listen to just a few minutes of Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham. Listen to Trump, Matt Gaetz, Steve King. They know that they have to make anyone not white the enemy. The R's base is almost exclusively white, they use those other groups as boogeymen to scare their elderly base.

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

Dems can point to prosperity, a social safety net, an educated populace, environmental protections for future generations, access to health care since that is one thing that every single person will need in their life. Rs will bankrupt the middle class and the poor even further to move money to wealthy donors.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I don’t think you have a clue as to what the term identity politics means.

Here’s what the Ds do regularly - play demographics off of each other:

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

“They cling to their guns and their religion.”
“They are deplorable, irredeemable.”

If the Ds didn’t have the identity politics card to play, they’d have almost no platform to run on anymore. People aren’t buying their extreme regulations and environmental excesses. They aren’t buying their socialized medicine. They aren’t buying free college. They aren’t buying Resist Trump as a platform plank. Progressive socialism is not the answer for our nation. Never was and never will be.

You forgot a major one SD....Those poor children crossing the border illegally, yet it's okay and encouraged for abortion on demand to be a method of birth control.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Identity politics, The Rs frame arguments playing these groups against each other. Listen to just a few minutes of Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham. Listen to Trump, Matt Gaetz, Steve King. They know that they have to make anyone not white the enemy. The R's base is almost exclusively white, they use those other groups as boogeymen to scare their elderly base.

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

Dems can point to prosperity, a social safety net, an educated populace, environmental protections for future generations, access to health care since that is one thing that every single person will need in their life. Rs will bankrupt the middle class and the poor even further to move money to wealthy donors.

And how about Maddow? Matthews? Waters screaming to get in their face? Antifa....the Dem's version of the KKK...interrupting dinners? Cory the Racist Booker, who admits to molesting a young staffer (was it male or female)....And how about Cuomo? People who live in glass houses....

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Identity politics, The Rs frame arguments playing these groups against each other. Listen to just a few minutes of Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham. Listen to Trump, Matt Gaetz, Steve King. They know that they have to make anyone not white the enemy. The R's base is almost exclusively white, they use those other groups as boogeymen to scare their elderly base.

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

Dems can point to prosperity, a social safety net, an educated populace, environmental protections for future generations, access to health care since that is one thing that every single person will need in their life. Rs will bankrupt the middle class and the poor even further to move money to wealthy donors.

KInd of funny....I'm middle class and I'm making more under this Administration than any other.

 

[indy35]

And how about Maddow? Matthews? Waters screaming to get in their face? Antifa....the Dem's version of the KKK...interrupting dinners? Cory the Racist Booker, who admits to molesting a young staffer (was it male or female)....And how about Cuomo? People who live in glass houses....

Trying to equate the two sides is bordering on the absurd. Just because you don't like factual news doesn't mean that it's the same thing as what Fox News does with purposefully misleading their base.

 

[SDBoiler1]

Identity politics, The Rs frame arguments playing these groups against each other. Listen to just a few minutes of Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham. Listen to Trump, Matt Gaetz, Steve King. They know that they have to make anyone not white the enemy. The R's base is almost exclusively white, they use those other groups as boogeymen to scare their elderly base.

Black vs. White
Non-White vs. White
Gay vs. Straight
LGTBQ vs. Straight
Female vs. Male
Transgender vs. Male and Female
Muslim vs. Christian
Atheist and Agnostic vs. Christian
Illegal vs. Citizen
AAs vs LEOs

Dems can point to prosperity, a social safety net, an educated populace, environmental protections for future generations, access to health care since that is one thing that every single person will need in their life. Rs will bankrupt the middle class and the poor even further to move money to wealthy donors.

“Dems can point to prosperity”? What planet do you live on? People are prospering much more under Trump than Obama.

The Ds can point to the road to the bottom. Equal outcomes regardless of effort. Progressive Socialism means Everyone will suffer, except for a few bureaucrats. And that’s what you are advocating.