Oh I believe you ! Yup! Look who is getting minutes. Mathias can shoot the three. V Edwards can shoot the three. haarms is a perimeter big player who can shoot the three. C Edwards can shoot the three. PJ has made some clutch threes. just because Eastern hasn't played for Purdue doesn't mean he can't shoot the three. how many players do you need on the court at one time to shoot the three ? my preference is 3 !
Cline surely will get his time if we need a quick three, otherwise, he'll be sitting on the bench. Cline is a liability on defense, and his time on the court will be taken by increased time for C Edwards and minutes given to Eastern. Simply stated, we don't need Cline's 3 point shooting, as Matthias and C Edwards will be taking those shots.
Why is that so hard to see ?
Carsen was 49 of 144 from 3 (34%)
Cline was 45 of 109 (41.3%)
Although I do agree Cline loses minutes, your reasoning is not very good. Cline was a far superior shooter from 3, Carsen was just a volume shooter. Unless Carsen can up that percentage, you don't just scoff at 41% from 3. Purdue enjoyed a lot of success with a lineup where every player was a threat to shoot the three. Haas doesn't do that. Haarms may be a good shooter, but as it stands right now, nobody even knows if he will see meaningful minutes. Your entire argument is based on an absolute uncertainty. Cline's three point shooting is the reason he will see the court.
Why will Cline's minutes reduce? His defense. He was embarrassingly bad on defense. Often seemed lost and was lazy/slow on the switches. His man often torched Purdue and he was clearly the weakest link on defense. If Carsen can continue to improve his defense and decision making, it is a no brainer that his minutes will go up. Eastern has incredible size for a guard and if he can pick up the defense quickly, he will see a lot of minutes. He isn't a pure shooter, so if he can't match the chemistry, Painter will go with PJ and Cline who have shown for years now that they can.
Eastern expects to play early, and 20 mpg is a safe prediction for the incoming freshman. He wants to run the point, so let's look at the guards. He may end up in a three guard lineup guarding the 3, which is just a fancy way of saying he will play the small forward position if that is what is best for the team.
PJ (28.6) will likely see a slight reduction in minutes. PJ's biggest strengths are a team leading 3.92 assist/turnover (which was almost a full 1.0 ahead of second place Mathias). PJ took care of the ball on a team that turned the ball over way too much. PJ also shot 53/132 from three for 40%. He is a strong shooter and a good defender, but Carsen is so much quicker, allowing him to defend more athletic gaurds.
Cline (20 mpg) was a starter by default. He does not currently possess the defensive prowess to keep 20+ mpg or start unless he improves. Painter likes shooters, but if Biggie leaves, defense will become much more important. I can't see him dipping less than 15 mpg though. Too talented of a shooter and really plays well off the bench.
Carsen (23 mpg) is the guard that likely sees an increase in minutes. He was extremely frustrating at times making mind boggling awful decisions and head scratching turnovers. Carsen was an OK defender, but mostly because his speed. If he learns the system and commits to defense, he could become an elite defender. Painter recently commented that Carsen could reach 2000 points at Purdue. Ready to score right off of the bus. If he continues to put work on the defensive end and improve his basketball IQ he could be a star. There is usually a big jump in improvement from freshman to sophomore year. If Carsen can improve, he will be scary. The problem? Towards the end of the year he continued to make the same mistakes and didn't seem to improve his decision making. Also, If he can improve that 3 point shooting about 5-7%, that would make him a bad bad man.
Mathias (31.8 mpg) was incredibly important to the team last year. One of the best defenders in the Big Ten, which will always get minutes in the Painter system. 72-159 from 3 for a blistering 45%. 133 assists to 53 turnovers. It is hard to imagine Mathias dropping below 30 mpg. He will be the vocal leader if Biggie leaves. The combination of shooting/defense/passing/leadership will ensure big minutes.
Eastern is the wildcard. His best asset is an ability to drive and pass. He has very good size for a guard. Good shooter, but not great. He certainly will not be a volume shooter like Carsen. The most exciting thing is his ability and willingness to defend. Adding a player like Eastern will really help against atheltic teams that torch Purdue when they switch. Should come in as a freshman and be a far superior defender to Cline. Can pass and handle the ball well enough to run point, and that is also a plus! A safe prediction is 15 mpg and that is a bit on the conservative side.
