Success of 'next man up' under Painter

[northside100]

As much as I give posters here grief about being limited in their ability and willingness to project player performance that's different from what they've seen, the majority of recent Purdue stars were really good early in their career. Does that mean that Trey and Fletch are unlikely to blow up as juniors?

Do you agree with my list below? What would you add or change? What does that mean for the outlook for guys like Trey, Fletch, Cam and Myles?

Guys who starred early - Carsen, Biggie, JI, Baby Boilers, Braden
Guys with a slower trajectory - Zach, Vince, AJH, Trevion, Haas
Guys who stalled out - Haarms, Nojel
Guys who blew up late - Cline

 

[EdBoiler]

Vince was good from the get go.

 

[northside100]

Vince was good from the get go.

I agree. Fletch has been too, but Vince wasn’t an all conference guy until his senior year. Can Fletch and / or Trey make that type of jump?

Link: Vince stats by year

 

[pubill]

As much as I give posters here grief about being limited in their ability and willingness to project player performance that's different from what they've seen, the majority of recent Purdue stars were really good early in their career. Does that mean that Trey and Fletch are unlikely to blow up as juniors?

Do you agree with my list below? What would you add or change? What does that mean for the outlook for guys like Trey, Fletch, Cam and Myles?

Guys who starred early - Carsen, Biggie, JI, Baby Boilers, Braden
Guys with a slower trajectory - Zach, Vince, AJH, Trevion, Haas
Guys who stalled out - Haarms, Nojel
Guys who blew up late - Cline

Carsen did not star his first year, not really till his 2nd.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Carsen did not star his first year, not really till his 2nd.

I’d have to disagree. He averaged 10 ppg as a Frosh in 23 mpg and started 2/3 of the year. He hit HUGE FTs at Maryland with little time left on the clock to win that game. I remember thinking this kids a gamer and going to be real good.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

As much as I give posters here grief about being limited in their ability and willingness to project player performance that's different from what they've seen, the majority of recent Purdue stars were really good early in their career. Does that mean that Trey and Fletch are unlikely to blow up as juniors?

Do you agree with my list below? What would you add or change? What does that mean for the outlook for guys like Trey, Fletch, Cam and Myles?

Guys who starred early - Carsen, Biggie, JI, Baby Boilers, Braden
Guys with a slower trajectory - Zach, Vince, AJH, Trevion, Haas
Guys who stalled out - Haarms, Nojel
Guys who blew up late - Cline

I think Trey and Loyer for sure can break out. Their roles so far haven’t asked/needed them to. TKR in the shadow of Zach and Loyer also played off of Zach. I know it’s coach speak but a lot of talk of Loyer having a different role and have plays run for him. He’s been lights out all summer and improved his game a lot….even assign some muscle ( 😂, even if it’s not as clear as Heide and Colvin).

TKR has the ability as we saw vs Illinois last year at Mackey. He showed in the scrimmage (for me) that he can do a lot more than what he’s asked to do during the his last few seasons. He’s a beast down low with that spin move and he can keep the defense honest by hitting the mid range or 3 from rhe PnR with Braden (which I think he’s very capable of), then we will see that jump.

The opportunity for both is certainly there and if I had to bet, I’d say they both take it. It may take some time for adjusting in LAZ (life after Zach), but I think it’ll all come together around mid January to early Feb.

Just my opinion of course 😂

 

[northside100]

I’d have to disagree. He averaged 10 ppg as a Frosh in 23 mpg and started 2/3 of the year. He hit HUGE FTs at Maryland with little time left on the clock to win that game. I remember thinking this kids a gamer and going to be real good.

I understand the point from the OP, Carsen didn’t put up huge numbers as a freshman, but tend to agree with you here. You could watch Carsen as a freshman and say ‘this kid is going to be a star’ in a way that I don’t think was true for Fletch, Cam or Myles. JI fell in the same category as Carsen.

 

[northside100]

I think Trey and Loyer for sure can break out. Their roles so far haven’t asked/needed them to. TKR in the shadow of Zach and Loyer also played off of Zach. I know it’s coach speak but a lot of talk of Loyer having a different role and have plays run for him. He’s been lights out all summer and improved his game a lot….even assign some muscle ( 😂, even if it’s not as clear as Heide and Colvin).

TKR has the ability as we saw vs Illinois last year at Mackey. He showed in the scrimmage (for me) that he can do a lot more than what he’s asked to do during the his last few seasons. He’s a beast down low with that spin move and he can keep the defense honest by hitting the mid range or 3 from rhe PnR with Braden (which I think he’s very capable of), then we will see that jump.

The opportunity for both is certainly there and if I had to bet, I’d say they both take it. It may take some time for adjusting in LAZ (life after Zach), but I think it’ll all come together around mid January to early Feb.

Just my opinion of course 😂

I want to agree with you and you may be right, but I’m a complete homer and as a result biased. I wanted to take a step back and ask, ‘what does history tell us about the outlook for these guys?’

I think the answer is, it’s inconclusive. Guys like Vince went from good to great, guys like DM got better but never really blew up and guys like Haarms and Nojel weren’t ready when they needed to step up.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I’d have to disagree. He averaged 10 ppg as a Frosh in 23 mpg and started 2/3 of the year. He hit HUGE FTs at Maryland with little time left on the clock to win that game. I remember thinking this kids a gamer and going to be real good.

I understand the point from the OP, Carsen didn’t put up huge numbers as a freshman, but tend to agree with you here. You could watch Carsen as a freshman and say ‘this kid is going to be a star’ in a way that I don’t think was true for Fletch, Cam or Myles. JI fell in the same category as Carsen.

How time flies...just to refresh - C-Boogie's conference debut wasn't too shabby....including the first eight points of the game.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

How time flies...just to refresh - C-Boogie's conference debut wasn't too shabby....including the first eight points of the game.

View embedded media

The signature C-Boogie left handed dunk!

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I want to agree with you and you may be right, but I’m a complete homer and as a result biased. I wanted to take a step back and ask, ‘what does history tell us about the outlook for these guys?’

I think the answer is, it’s inconclusive. Guys like Vince went from good to great, guys like DM got better but never really blew up and guys like Haarms and Nojel weren’t ready when they needed to step up.

Well, from what I’ve seen from TKR, his game is waaaay more complete than Haarms.

Loyer will be asked to do more and there was a reason he was asked to go to certain camps and he did well there. Kid is a competitor and gamer and I’d be surprised if he regressed and didn’t take a leap.

 

[northside100]

Well, from what I’ve seen from TKR, his game is waaaay more complete than Haarms.

Loyer will be asked to do more and there was a reason he was asked to go to certain camps and he did well there. Kid is a competitor and gamer and I’d be surprised if he regressed and didn’t take a leap.

I don't see a world in which Trey isn't significantly more productive than Matty H, particularly on offense. My question is more around whether he averages 12 to 14 ppg or 16 to 18 ppg and how productive he is on the boards and on defense. He's going to be good on offense, will he be great? Who is best to play alongside him at the 4/5 and how well can that combination score, defend, and rebound?

I completely agree that Fletch will continue to get better. My question is whether that means he becomes more efficient as Midwestern Cowboy did as an upperclassman or does he really become a consistent go-to guy and all-conference player.
Link: MWC Stats

 

[Wolegib]

my take/belief is if the player isn't a star by the end of their second year, they never will be. I have seen very few players in today's college basketball make any significant leap in performance as a junior or senior.

i guess it depends on your criteria of making a leap. Cline and Mathias both improved . Tre improved. Haas improved. but it didn't appear to be a dramatic jump.

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

 

[northside100]

my take/belief is if the player isn't a star by the end of their second year, they never will be. I have seen very few players in today's college basketball make any significant leap in performance as a junior or senior.

i guess it depends on your criteria of making a leap. Cline and Mathias both improved . Tre improved. Haas improved. but it didn't appear to be a dramatic jump.

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

Vince Edwards says hello

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

my take/belief is if the player isn't a star by the end of their second year, they never will be. I have seen very few players in today's college basketball make any significant leap in performance as a junior or senior.

i guess it depends on your criteria of making a leap. Cline and Mathias both improved . Tre improved. Haas improved. but it didn't appear to be a dramatic jump.

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

Zach Edey (don’t know if you remember him though), Dalton Knecht, Mark Sears, Dante Divincenzo, Boo Buie, Cam Spencer, Tristan Newton, Austin Reeves, Steve Blake, Ochai Agbaji, Herb Jones, Draymond Green, Cassius Winston…just to name a few

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

lol AA and All B1G is quite the difference. But we will revisit this at the end of the year…but when you’re wrong, you can’t say you didn’t say this, deal?

 

[BBG]

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

Since you're rather clueless and usually the opposite of what you say happens, there is a good chance then that they are both!

 

[Boileratthebeach]

Zach Edey (don’t know if you remember him though), Dalton Knecht, Mark Sears, Dante Divincenzo, Boo Buie, Cam Spencer, Tristan Newton, Austin Reeves, Steve Blake, Ochai Agbaji, Herb Jones, Draymond Green, Cassius Winston…just to name a few

Don’t confuse him with facts. He also doesn’t believe in stats….

 

[POTFHBTFU]

my take/belief is if the player isn't a star by the end of their second year, they never will be. I have seen very few players in today's college basketball make any significant leap in performance as a junior or senior.

i guess it depends on your criteria of making a leap. Cline and Mathias both improved . Tre improved. Haas improved. but it didn't appear to be a dramatic jump.

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

You kidding?

Trevion had a sizable jump.
Remember Grady Eifert?
Cam Heide is same situation as sasha as redshirt junior, sasha went from 2.5 ppg over to 9.1 ppg his RS-So year (Heide was 3.3 last year in similar minutes).
Cline had a HUGE jump his senior year from 4 to 12 ppg.
Carsen added 6 ppg between sophomore and junior year.
Dakota improved 4.2 ppg between so and jr year and another 2.3 ppg the next.
Ray davis blew up his junior year.
Vincent Edwards saw significant improvement year over year.
So did DJ Byrd.
Ryne Smith is the poster child for why paint redshirts as he was so much better his senior year woulda loved to have him back.

The worst part of your post isn’t that you are ignoring facts but missing anecdotal evidence. TKR blew up in Europe last year when Edey wasn’t with the team. Heide led the entire team including Edey on offensive rating per possession (colvin also has favaorable metrics). And he got everyone on their feet and loud so many times with his electric play.

I agree no one other than Braden is pre-season all big ten, but we have the preseason player of year and TKR and Loyer received votes for 2nd team, call them honorable mention if you want. Not one team had 2 players on first and second team so it would have been wild to use that as a barometer for improvement.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

my take/belief is if the player isn't a star by the end of their second year, they never will be. I have seen very few players in today's college basketball make any significant leap in performance as a junior or senior.

i guess it depends on your criteria of making a leap. Cline and Mathias both improved . Tre improved. Haas improved. but it didn't appear to be a dramatic jump.

will TKR, Heide and Loyer improve? sure. will they become all Americans or all big 10 this year ? I would say no.

Well Wule. TKR lookin like he will be an AA and all B1G first team.

 

[rgarlitz]

You kidding?

Trevion had a sizable jump.
Remember Grady Eifert?
Cam Heide is same situation as sasha as redshirt junior, sasha went from 2.5 ppg over to 9.1 ppg his RS-So year (Heide was 3.3 last year in similar minutes).
Cline had a HUGE jump his senior year from 4 to 12 ppg.
Carsen added 6 ppg between sophomore and junior year.
Dakota improved 4.2 ppg between so and jr year and another 2.3 ppg the next.
Ray davis blew up his junior year.
Vincent Edwards saw significant improvement year over year.
So did DJ Byrd.
Ryne Smith is the poster child for why paint redshirts as he was so much better his senior year woulda loved to have him back.

The worst part of your post isn’t that you are ignoring facts but missing anecdotal evidence. TKR blew up in Europe last year when Edey wasn’t with the team. Heide led the entire team including Edey on offensive rating per possession (colvin also has favaorable metrics). And he got everyone on their feet and loud so many times with his electric play.

I agree no one other than Braden is pre-season all big ten, but we have the preseason player of year and TKR and Loyer received votes for 2nd team, call them honorable mention if you want. Not one team had 2 players on first and second team so it would have been wild to use that as a barometer for improvement.

Definitely agree about Dakota and Ray Day. Both were solid 4-year contributors who got better each year and put together outstanding senior seasons.

Mathias even earned a couple real stints in the NBA.