Ideally they start 2-0 so losing to ND won't necessarily be as bad this year but yeah I agree that until this team reaches at least mediocrity, we need 3 guaranteed wins every preconference. That means only 3 conference wins to make a bowl.
Making a bowl means "success" in the eyes of better recruits, it means extra practice time for younger players and it's how you step up to attracting better players, increasing fans and money for more NIL to graduate to 8-9 win seasons.
You don't get there winning 4-5 games max but hey you had a lot of top competition in RA. This isn't basketball.