In March, it's all about match-ups, but you can also play into your undoing...
Which do you think will be Purdue's biggest issue, or lead to its downfall, in March? Granted, not all of these are singular issues (i.e. playing athletic big men can lead to poor output/defense by Purdue, but also lead to below average rebounding).
-Turnovers: Purdue has had 11 or fewer turnovers in the last three games, but it has been a red flag in close wins or losses. At Penn State, 17 turnovers. vs. Minnesota, 14 turnovers. vs. Louisville, 17 turnovers. (And I would include "the press" as part of this category as we've already hashed out the press).
-Rebounding: Purdue's a strong rebounding team, but it's had some slip-ups in some tight games, or losses. Purdue's been outrebounded: @ Northwestern, @ Penn State, vs. IU, @ Nebraska, @ Iowa, @ Louisville. Obviously some of these weren't losses, but some tighter games.
-Three point shooting: If we don't shoot the ball well from the perimeter, it allows teams to clog the interior and provide a rebounding advantage. Games we have shot poorly from the perimeter: @ Northwestern (4-19), @ Michigan (5-16), @ IU (6-21), @ Iowa (11-28) and Minnesota (9-28). There's also been some games where we didn't shoot poorly statistically, but our attempts were high - @ Penn State (12-26 - 14 missed shots). Many of these games were also games we lost the rebounding battle.
-Free Throws: We are great at drawing fouls (and not giving up many). This usually leads to a free throw advantage, and also a high number of free throw attempts, which we have a very solid team percentage. When we have not gotten to the line, we have typically struggled: @ Michigan (8 attempts vs. their 11), @ Nebraska (13 attempts vs. their 24). However, we've also lost games that we had ample free throws: @ Iowa (21-25) and Louisville (16-22).
-Physical/athletic big men: When we've faced some more athletic big men, we have struggled some in the interior. Some notable examples: @ Penn State, Michigan, IU (in a weird way) and Iowa to a degree. Obviously Swanigan has a history of becoming turnover prone when pressure is applied - and he is not athletic to guard guys like a Wagner and other perimeter big men. Obviously Haas is only going to be effective when there's someone similar in size, which not all teams have (remember, Arkansas Little Rock used a small/quick lineup to disrupt and cause turnovers).
-Overall defense: While we have definitely improved defensively, we aren't a shut down team by any means. Mathias has done a great job on many of the league's guards, but obviously we could face some more athletic guards that can challenge our dribble penetration defense. We allowed Michigan to shoot 54%, @ Michigan State 52%, Iowa 57% Minnesota 49%. The good news is that most of those were further back in the season - except Michigan.
-Strength of schedule: We haven't had a bad schedule, but we haven't played a number of Top 15 teams as you can do in a "normal" Big Ten year. We had some good experience playing against one of the best teams in the country (Villanova), and a very solid Louisville team. But we haven't been challenged with team/talent like that really since then. We've faced some pretty good teams - Wisconsin, Notre Dame, etc. - but we've also only faced the top 4 Big Ten teams one team each (Maryland, Minnesota and Wisconsin). In both tournaments, everyone is playing do-or-die. And when we leave the Big Ten to play in the NCAAs, we don't know what to expect (I'm not a Big Ten basher and I think overall there's a lot of parity, but I also can see it being bad for the Big Ten).
I think one of the stranger games of Purdue's season was the Penn State game. You don't want to overanalyze one game, but Penn State shot 42%, 11% from 3, they shot 14 free throws - a pretty normal number, we had 17 turnovers - but they had 16, etc.
The 2 stats that jump out - they outrebounded us and they had 10 blocks. They did a great job on Swanigan who only shot 5 times and 2 of those were 3s. Granted, Haas did have a good game himself, but they were one of the few teams that really isolated Swanigan's effectiveness offensively, and with rebounds.
That being said, there's a plethora of things that can come up. I don't think Purdue has been a "shoot itself in the foot" team so much this year, but they've had some bad matchups that got exposed and ran into some hot shooting teams at times too. Looking at our recent games, obviously the Michigan game stands out - which was a combination of a hard matchup for us and they also happened to have a couple hot shooters. So I'd probably say a bad matchup - particularly on the interior that can minimize Swanigan and our interior strength - would be our kryptonite.
Which do you think will be Purdue's biggest issue, or lead to its downfall, in March? Granted, not all of these are singular issues (i.e. playing athletic big men can lead to poor output/defense by Purdue, but also lead to below average rebounding).
-Turnovers: Purdue has had 11 or fewer turnovers in the last three games, but it has been a red flag in close wins or losses. At Penn State, 17 turnovers. vs. Minnesota, 14 turnovers. vs. Louisville, 17 turnovers. (And I would include "the press" as part of this category as we've already hashed out the press).
-Rebounding: Purdue's a strong rebounding team, but it's had some slip-ups in some tight games, or losses. Purdue's been outrebounded: @ Northwestern, @ Penn State, vs. IU, @ Nebraska, @ Iowa, @ Louisville. Obviously some of these weren't losses, but some tighter games.
-Three point shooting: If we don't shoot the ball well from the perimeter, it allows teams to clog the interior and provide a rebounding advantage. Games we have shot poorly from the perimeter: @ Northwestern (4-19), @ Michigan (5-16), @ IU (6-21), @ Iowa (11-28) and Minnesota (9-28). There's also been some games where we didn't shoot poorly statistically, but our attempts were high - @ Penn State (12-26 - 14 missed shots). Many of these games were also games we lost the rebounding battle.
-Free Throws: We are great at drawing fouls (and not giving up many). This usually leads to a free throw advantage, and also a high number of free throw attempts, which we have a very solid team percentage. When we have not gotten to the line, we have typically struggled: @ Michigan (8 attempts vs. their 11), @ Nebraska (13 attempts vs. their 24). However, we've also lost games that we had ample free throws: @ Iowa (21-25) and Louisville (16-22).
-Physical/athletic big men: When we've faced some more athletic big men, we have struggled some in the interior. Some notable examples: @ Penn State, Michigan, IU (in a weird way) and Iowa to a degree. Obviously Swanigan has a history of becoming turnover prone when pressure is applied - and he is not athletic to guard guys like a Wagner and other perimeter big men. Obviously Haas is only going to be effective when there's someone similar in size, which not all teams have (remember, Arkansas Little Rock used a small/quick lineup to disrupt and cause turnovers).
-Overall defense: While we have definitely improved defensively, we aren't a shut down team by any means. Mathias has done a great job on many of the league's guards, but obviously we could face some more athletic guards that can challenge our dribble penetration defense. We allowed Michigan to shoot 54%, @ Michigan State 52%, Iowa 57% Minnesota 49%. The good news is that most of those were further back in the season - except Michigan.
-Strength of schedule: We haven't had a bad schedule, but we haven't played a number of Top 15 teams as you can do in a "normal" Big Ten year. We had some good experience playing against one of the best teams in the country (Villanova), and a very solid Louisville team. But we haven't been challenged with team/talent like that really since then. We've faced some pretty good teams - Wisconsin, Notre Dame, etc. - but we've also only faced the top 4 Big Ten teams one team each (Maryland, Minnesota and Wisconsin). In both tournaments, everyone is playing do-or-die. And when we leave the Big Ten to play in the NCAAs, we don't know what to expect (I'm not a Big Ten basher and I think overall there's a lot of parity, but I also can see it being bad for the Big Ten).
I think one of the stranger games of Purdue's season was the Penn State game. You don't want to overanalyze one game, but Penn State shot 42%, 11% from 3, they shot 14 free throws - a pretty normal number, we had 17 turnovers - but they had 16, etc.
The 2 stats that jump out - they outrebounded us and they had 10 blocks. They did a great job on Swanigan who only shot 5 times and 2 of those were 3s. Granted, Haas did have a good game himself, but they were one of the few teams that really isolated Swanigan's effectiveness offensively, and with rebounds.
That being said, there's a plethora of things that can come up. I don't think Purdue has been a "shoot itself in the foot" team so much this year, but they've had some bad matchups that got exposed and ran into some hot shooting teams at times too. Looking at our recent games, obviously the Michigan game stands out - which was a combination of a hard matchup for us and they also happened to have a couple hot shooters. So I'd probably say a bad matchup - particularly on the interior that can minimize Swanigan and our interior strength - would be our kryptonite.
