Well with it being at the hall of calls, you have to factor in at least 10 points for IU based on that alone.
Purdue vs IU matchups next year
- Thread starter feulner
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Yogi was 3-7 at in the second game at IU. That's not exactly terrible. Yogi is the only small guard we have and he's pretty good at getting his own 3 point shots off the screen or getting into the lane. He played against taller guards all year. Again, this is nothing new and it doesn't solely apply to just Purdue. 6'3 and 6'4 aren't exactly small guards and is why I don't think an inch or two makes nearly as big of a deal as you are making it out to be specifically because I think JBJ and RJ are much more athletic than Stephens/Mathias.What happens with longer guards is that they can limit the 3-pt shooting of shorter guards. Sure, there will be scramble situations where a guard gets open behind the line, but in a set play, it is tough for a short guard to get off a 3-pt shot against taller opponents.
The alternative left to the short guard is to try to dribble around or drive past the taller guard. This is what Yogi is very effective at executing. Instead of a 3-pt shot, it results in a layup or a midrange bucket. With our centers petrolling the paint, the midrange game becomes critical for Yogi, which he is very good at executing.
I think JBJ shooting stats show that he was not so good at finding an alternative way to score over the taller guards (specifically Davis). Maybe someone can grab those stats too to see if my impression is backed by any facts.
As for next year, I expect Painter to have a defensive strategy to off-set Yogi and JBJ, because I still think IU will be a jump-shot guard oriented team. Much will depend on Bryant's ability to screen the bigger Purdue guys when Yogi drives. That is a subtle play that most freshmen bigs don't intrinsically understand. We will see what Bryant brings.
As for Purdue's offense, I think you will see Taylor and Edwards score a lot more from the PF position against IU and other teams (this is an area that outsiders would not predict, but based on what I have seen, I think we will surprise other teams here), and you will see much more accurate and consistent 3-pt shooting by our guards, now coming in uninjured. Those are the two areas I expect to see our team improve over last year.
As for JBJ, I don't think it had anything to do with the taller guards. I think it had everything to do with switching everything up top and playing up on our guards. You didn't have to worry about our guards getting around your defenders and into the paint because of Hammons which I believe changes (a little with Bryant). You won't be able to offset Yogi AND JBJ. I think you'll have to pick one. You don't have that second lockdown defender on the point (unless you get a stud 5th year). Octeus was pretty darn close to that but Davis is for sure. You put Davis on Yogi and I think it'll be a hell of a matchup. I think Yogi would still get his points, but he would have to really work for them, IMO. We'll be a jump shooting team, but not as much as last year IMO which will be good news for us.
Taylor? Really? I don't think Taylor had played any significant minutes last year. Didn't he redshirt? Now you're expecting him to score of Williams who will be a junior, potential NBA guy, and someone who has played a ton since he's been at IU? Give me a break. I still take Williams over Edwards who I expect to be better, but Taylor? Reminds me of talks of Lawson. Lol....
Seeing as the game is late in the season. It would be very premature to say IU will be favored. Very premature.
After reading all his pompous drivel I'm willing to bet that's not the only thing SNU does "prematurely"!!!
If Devin Davis can play again next year, along with a healthy Perea and the addition of Bryant, IU should matchup considerably better with Purdue next year. Both teams should be good and likely both will spend time ranked (when was the last time that happened?)
IU had stan Robinson defending Hammons for vast majorities of both games last year, that's how pathetic this matchup was for IU.
On paper, IU should win, being at home, having 3 Burger boys, one a senior PG and a 4th that's a draft prospect, but I've been watching these games for 30 years now ( that I remember) and anything is a possibility.
Growing up with a Purdue grad mom, and IU grad dad always made these fun...and even though mom went to optometry school at IU, she is a boiler at heart when its head to head. I wisely followed dad's footsteps and miscalculated down south ;-)
IU had stan Robinson defending Hammons for vast majorities of both games last year, that's how pathetic this matchup was for IU.
On paper, IU should win, being at home, having 3 Burger boys, one a senior PG and a 4th that's a draft prospect, but I've been watching these games for 30 years now ( that I remember) and anything is a possibility.
Growing up with a Purdue grad mom, and IU grad dad always made these fun...and even though mom went to optometry school at IU, she is a boiler at heart when its head to head. I wisely followed dad's footsteps and miscalculated down south ;-)
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Exactly. Remember, we have Tom Crean. That means the team might look good through January, but come March they won't even look like a top 50 team. One thing that's different next year, though, is that IU might be playing several good teams in December, instead of one or two tough opponents and a bunch of cupcakes, like usual. Whether that makes them better or worse...?
How can someone as athletic as Troy Williams be such an awful defender? He's either dumb, or poorly coached.
If it plays out like most Clapper teams you won't win 20 games this year. He always counts on 11-12 wins against East Cupcake State to start the season then can coast through the B1G to get to 20 and he's a success.
We just got Johnny Hill, a 6'3" 5th year SR PG, and we also seem to be in the running for the Notorious BIGGIE. IU's inside will be shredded against our front line, especially if BIGGIE joins the Boilers. Bryant won't match-up well against our size. Edwards and BIGGIE are going to be real problematic for your 4. With your moronic coach, Purdue has to have an advantage over IU, whether at IU, neutral court, or at Mackey. Painter has beaten Crean three-in-a-row now and it seems he's figured out how to beat IU's guard-oriented teams.
Good discussion!
I have a little different view about the matchups:
It seems to me that Purdue will have two players who will be flag-bearers whenever they are available and out of foul trouble: Hammons and Davis.
IU will have three or four players in similar staus: Yogi, Williams, and Bryant/Blackmon.
Both teams have their depth as a huge team strength, and consist of a roster that goes about ten deep with experience and ability.
The teams' strengths are a really good reflection of their 'stereotypical' mindset: for PU it's defense and a half court grind led by two fantastic, all-conference defensive players. For IU it's three point shooting and fast pace.That is a big, big reason why the home court advantage is huge for IU, moreso when the styles so very much contrast in this manner. A kid like Bryant will be far more comfortable at home playing away from the net (and therein drawing Hammons away). Good news for IU when the matchup is at Assembly Hall, much better matchup for PU if/when they meet in the B1G tourney.
The key tipping points? No mystery; can Purdue get consistent point guard play (apporoaching what Octeus provided last year), and can IU's defensive awareness and mindset improve (quite a bit). If the answer is 'yes' to both questions, both teams could be very, very successful and make deep runs, and that would be a great thing.
In any event, this coming year has all the makings of what makes college basketball great in Indiana: both major universities ranked, playing in front of full houses, and commanding complete interest.
I have a little different view about the matchups:
It seems to me that Purdue will have two players who will be flag-bearers whenever they are available and out of foul trouble: Hammons and Davis.
IU will have three or four players in similar staus: Yogi, Williams, and Bryant/Blackmon.
Both teams have their depth as a huge team strength, and consist of a roster that goes about ten deep with experience and ability.
The teams' strengths are a really good reflection of their 'stereotypical' mindset: for PU it's defense and a half court grind led by two fantastic, all-conference defensive players. For IU it's three point shooting and fast pace.That is a big, big reason why the home court advantage is huge for IU, moreso when the styles so very much contrast in this manner. A kid like Bryant will be far more comfortable at home playing away from the net (and therein drawing Hammons away). Good news for IU when the matchup is at Assembly Hall, much better matchup for PU if/when they meet in the B1G tourney.
The key tipping points? No mystery; can Purdue get consistent point guard play (apporoaching what Octeus provided last year), and can IU's defensive awareness and mindset improve (quite a bit). If the answer is 'yes' to both questions, both teams could be very, very successful and make deep runs, and that would be a great thing.
In any event, this coming year has all the makings of what makes college basketball great in Indiana: both major universities ranked, playing in front of full houses, and commanding complete interest.
IU finally gets their big center and you guys are expecting him to play "away from the net"? Good strategy guys. Keep up the good work!
We actually have a little better OOC schedule than usual but still too many 300+ teams. If we win fewer than 20 games Crean will be gone, not sure that's what you guys want but most of us would be happy.
I don't necessarily agree with your comments here. Adding Bryant at least gives us someone who can play something that resembles defense against Hammons/Haas instead of having Hartman trying to guard them. I would bet my pension you haven't seen Bryant play outside of the Jordan/McDonald's All American game so I don't think you really have a clue of what he will or won't be able to do. However, to your point, it's pretty safe thinking a senior in Hammons will have his way with Bryant who's a freshman. Adding Bryant does give us more to throw against Hammons/Haas than we had last year which can only be seen as a good thing for IU. Adding Bryant should allow our defense to switch back to a more normal man to man look instead of that bullshit switching mid possession crap, zone or relying on switching everything. I know we were terrible on defense last year (one of the worst I've ever watched), but look back at the prior four years when we had a big in the post. According to Kenpom our adjusted defense was significantly better than last year which, to me, shows the disadvantage we had last year and the lack of coaching to try and deal with what we had. I would assume our defense gets better and falls more in line with what we've seen from Crean over the last few years (closer to what we saw with Vonleh, IMO).
Either way, I actually think the game for IU and Purdue at Assembly Hall this year could have serious implications for both teams. I know Maryland is the runaway favorite right now, but I fully expect IU and Purdue to be right in the hunt. Obviously I think IU wins in Bloomington, but I know most aren't shocked I would think that way.
I don't see Bryant playing more than 15-20 minutes against Purdue. He SHOULD get in pretty quick foul trouble (since its at the hall of calls - maybe not). Even with him in the game, he won't change our offense against you. He won't be able to play off AJ or Haas, so we'll still get to the rim. It also won't change how we'll play defense against you. We'll let him take outside shots, and we'll still clog the middle with our bigs and pressure the perimeter.
And the result should be the same as last time we played there. IU is always full of hype preseason then reality sets in and the struggle during B1G. Next year will be no different.
I think Bryant playing defense without fouling is a concern (as it seems to be for all freshman big men). Going against one of the best bigs in the conference, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bryant in foul trouble. Hopefully he's not, but understandable to think that will happen. Adding Bryant won't change much (as you say) for you guys offensively, but it makes a pretty big difference for IU defensively. I don't know if you'll be able to get to the rim as easily as last year. It's my hope, that now that we don't have to switch everything and worry about overcompensating for other teams' bigs, we can play straight up man. Hopefully that takes the lanes away a bit. I also don't think Hammons will be able to just roam around the paint like he seemed to do last year. But we'll see. It'll be a good game, I'm pretty sure of that.
Yup. That sure seemed to happen when we had Zeller. Clearly we collapsed during the B10...
Not really trying to get involved in this argument/discussion, but I look at Crean teams as "with Zeller", and "after Zeller". Until I see otherwise.
And how did you do last season? You know, something a bit more relevant? Or are you too busy cutting down nets?
Not hard to see how things could be different than last year considering that bad job Crean did with roster management not having a reliable big man. I don't expect you to think the same as I do, but at least try and be reasonable.
Can't disagree with that, to this point. What I'm looking at is the team prior to Zeller getting there and the impact he had on the team. Now before anyone jumps on me here at least hear me out. The '11 team had Tom Pritchard as our post player but plenty of outside threats along with a few players who could get to the rim. The addition of some threat down low changed how teams had to play us defensively. This years team, IMO, will experience something like that. Clearly Zeller was a better prospect at this stage than Bryant, but Bryant isn't a slouch. We'll be fine offensively. The biggest addition Bryant brings is on defensively. He allows us to play a more normal defense instead of the garbage we played last year. The team when we had Vonleh was ranked in the Top 50 for adj. defense from Kenpom (IIRC or close to it) and we still have several of those players from that team. Not hard to think we'll improve defensively (honestly can't get worse). The question to me is, how much better. But it seems to me that plenty of people expect IU to be significantly better next year.
Can't blame you for being optimistic, as a fan, what else do you have. Doubt anyone will question the strength of your roster...just the ability of the guy who put it together and will continue to waive players to make room for the next Savior. The man does land 5star players, I'll give him that much.
100%. The team has a ton of talent. IMO, if he doesn't get passed the sweet sixteen this year I think he needs to be let go. Kind of a win/win for IU fans, really.
I don't think you can fault Crean for before Zeller any more than you can fault him for after Zeller. Just like you can't count his Marquette years before D Wade or after D Wade. Counting only those years IU has the HOF coach they have tried to believe they have since he hit campus.What about before?
You want to use what some have called "the greatest collapse in the history of college basketball" as your example?
D
Dont think there will be much difference between a freshman Bryant and a Junior Perea. IU returns their roster from last yess Perea, so they should be better. Purdue returns their roster less JO but with a pg at least comparable to JO. We may also add Swannigan. IU won't be able to handle the three headed monster Purdue will bring. If Stephens, Mathias, Kline, Davis or Edwards can hit some outside shots, it could get ugly for IU. If IU goes crazy from three than all bets are off. If the game was at Purdue, Purdue wins easily. Game is at IU so again all bets are off.
If Williams is on the court...why would AJ have to leave the lane? I thought Crean would play 5 shooters, but he never did and it always allowed AJ to guard the basket. I thought he would roll the dice and see how it did, but he never...
Hammons and Haas generated the most folks drawn against of any duo in 2014-15. They're both back and Bryant isn't equipped to guard either. Purdue will roll as Bryant fouls out and IU has no depth with Perea kicked out.
Here is my take on this year's game. I assume that Swanigan and Maker go elsewhere and we play with the rosters as they stand.
In general, freshmen bigs have the same set of weaknesses. First, in high school they are used to being one of the bigger men on the court, and that changes radically in college. They are used to playing against less skilled or smaller people, and have not developed all their skills. Often thier offensive game lacks craftiness. (Zeller, practicing all his life against his older brothers did not have this problem).
Second, they tend to foul while defending, a lot! They have not been coached on footwork, in detail, the way colleges coach their bigs, and they now face opponents with much more sophisticated games. Furthermore, they have not faced the kind of offensive player they will see every game in the BIG.
Third, they lack endurance. The bigs run the furthest in any game (end line to end line), and need the most endurance of all the players. They hit the "freshman wall" about 2/3's of the way through the year. I think Mathias, Haas and Edwards hit that wall last year. It affected their games at the end of the season. I expect that to be solved this year, and I think it accounts for much of the jump from year 1 to year 2 performance.
Purdue's freshmen, next year, will not have to face these problems, for the most part, because there are already strong people in each position who can start. The freshmen can work into the game early, and easily. Doing so without impacting the W-L record. Bryant, on the other hand, will face all of these challenges, and I think he will be prone to fouling on defense. His learning curve will be steep, and may adversely affect IU's W-L record.
When it come down to the IU-Purdue game, I think IU will be in trouble this year. Purdue will pound it inside and get Bryant in foul trouble early. The loss of HP will be more important than most IU guys think. He had experience and he had the physical ability to play in the BIG. Even if Bryant starts, HP would have been first off the bench. His departure really puts IU at a disadvantage in their rivalry game, because this has made IU weaker where Purdue already had the advantage, and where Purdue has a tendancy to go. If you can;t stop your opponent, then you have got to outscore them.
Purdue will likely put the same tight man-to-man on IU's guards to force them to play full out all game, thus creating a fatigue issue. IU's guards will need to do lots of side-to-side movement to get clear shots over Purdue's taller guards. IU can screen to clear Yogi and JBJ, but so far I have not been impressed with that aspect of Crean's teams. If Yogi and JBJ have a statistically normal game against Purdue, IU will lose.
IU will need to hit 3-pt shots at a high percentage, throughout the game, ...and run, ...run every time they have the ball. Maybe Purdue will be slow getting back on defense that game, and IU can get easy baskets. IU can win, but only if Purdue plays at less than their normal capability. On the other hand, this game now has the potential to be a blow out, if Purdue comes in motivated.
First I do agree with the general take on freshman bigs. Most of that is typically true, but not always. There are plenty of examples of freshman bigs who have been able to step in, play right away, stay out of foul trouble (for the most part) and contribute in a big way. I would say it's especially true for the highly ranked guys. I fully expect Stone and Bryant to be very good next year. I would expect Davis at MSU to be very good as well. Giddens will probably contribute at OSU as well.Here is my take on this year's game. I assume that Swanigan and Maker go elsewhere and we play with the rosters as they stand.
In general, freshmen bigs have the same set of weaknesses. First, in high school they are used to being one of the bigger men on the court, and that changes radically in college. They are used to playing against less skilled or smaller people, and have not developed all their skills. Often thier offensive game lacks craftiness. (Zeller, practicing all his life against his older brothers did not have this problem).
Second, they tend to foul while defending, a lot! They have not been coached on footwork, in detail, the way colleges coach their bigs, and they now face opponents with much more sophisticated games. Furthermore, they have not faced the kind of offensive player they will see every game in the BIG.
Third, they lack endurance. The bigs run the furthest in any game (end line to end line), and need the most endurance of all the players. They hit the "freshman wall" about 2/3's of the way through the year. I think Mathias, Haas and Edwards hit that wall last year. It affected their games at the end of the season. I expect that to be solved this year, and I think it accounts for much of the jump from year 1 to year 2 performance.
Purdue's freshmen, next year, will not have to face these problems, for the most part, because there are already strong people in each position who can start. The freshmen can work into the game early, and easily. Doing so without impacting the W-L record. Bryant, on the other hand, will face all of these challenges, and I think he will be prone to fouling on defense. His learning curve will be steep, and may adversely affect IU's W-L record.
When it come down to the IU-Purdue game, I think IU will be in trouble this year. Purdue will pound it inside and get Bryant in foul trouble early. The loss of HP will be more important than most IU guys think. He had experience and he had the physical ability to play in the BIG. Even if Bryant starts, HP would have been first off the bench. His departure really puts IU at a disadvantage in their rivalry game, because this has made IU weaker where Purdue already had the advantage, and where Purdue has a tendancy to go. If you can;t stop your opponent, then you have got to outscore them.
Purdue will likely put the same tight man-to-man on IU's guards to force them to play full out all game, thus creating a fatigue issue. IU's guards will need to do lots of side-to-side movement to get clear shots over Purdue's taller guards. IU can screen to clear Yogi and JBJ, but so far I have not been impressed with that aspect of Crean's teams. If Yogi and JBJ have a statistically normal game against Purdue, IU will lose.
IU will need to hit 3-pt shots at a high percentage, throughout the game, ...and run, ...run every time they have the ball. Maybe Purdue will be slow getting back on defense that game, and IU can get easy baskets. IU can win, but only if Purdue plays at less than their normal capability. On the other hand, this game now has the potential to be a blow out, if Purdue comes in motivated.
Perea would not have started this year. I'm not sure he would have even been first off the bench. I could see him as the second man off the bench, easily.
I pretty much disagree with everything you put out there for the IU/PU game. I don't see any of that happening. Honestly, I laughed a little reading it. Like the fatigue comment. Who was fatigued last year? Lol. And the "taller guards" comment is just comical. Seriously. You act like Yogi doesn't play against a taller guard EVERY NIGHT. If Yogi and JBJ have a statistically normal night, IU will win. I think Hammons will actually have to guard Bryant not allowing him to just patrol the lane like last year. Williams will win the battle against Edwards, easily. Yogi will get his no matter who guards him. Not sure about JBJ and RJ but I would expect a big sophomore jump (just like you do from your guys) and would be even more efficient. It sure seems like you expect your players to get leaps and bounds better while everyone else is just sitting idle. So approaching it from your standpoint, I would expect Hammons and Haas to get their points. I would expect your awful shooting to continue between Mathias, Stephens, Davis and your PG's.
So with all of that said, I think that IU will win unless Purdue plays above their norm which I don't think will happen, and even if it does, people here will blame the refs, of course.
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Are you insinuating that Hammons will guard Williams again? Who's going to guard Bryant? Edwards? He'll get dominated. Not because he's a bad player, but because he'll be giving up several inches and lbs. I would expect Hammons to guard Bryant. No reason to think he wouldn't considering Bryant is a capable big man.
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