Purdue opens -3.5 against Northwestern
- Thread starter hunkgolden
- Start date
Not playing a downer here, but we'd better temper our expectations. Lat season we were competitive in all games, with a stout 'D" and an improving offense. For the previous 4 seasons, we were historically inept! One (barely) winning season does not a program define. NW has a proven track record of late and a coach who seems to get the best from his assortment of scholar-athletes. As for me, I will withhold judgement until late August.
Yeah I don't like the -3.5 line either. I've been thinking more and more Purdue starts the season 2-2 this year, which is fine given the level of competition. Win against EMU, lose against NW, and split Mizzou/BC, take your pick.
I am, the fans are, the coaches are, the players are all tired of losing to fricken Northwestern. Purdue will put it on them this year as Brohm and the staff know how to prepare the team early in the season.
Besides Justin Jackson, who obviously is a big loss for the program, that team returns just about everyone and will be looking to dethrone Wisconsin this year, though still unlikely, in the West.
Sick and tired of losing to them, no doubt, but I’m not sure that’s gonna be the reason the tables are turned. Hope we beat them cuz it would make for a great prime time statement win with big West implications.... but I don’t think it will be a blowout either way. Purdue’s offense will need to win the 4th quarter like we did against Arizona and not play not to lose like we did against Nebraska last year.
Another poster stated Purdue 10 pt favorite if Thorsen doesn't play. I agree with that. If Thorsen plays and plays well, it should be an even up game.
If Thorson doesn't play I definitely expect that line to go up to -7.5 or -9.5. If/when Thorson is announced as the starter in the final days before kickoff, I wouldn't be surprised to see the line change to NW -3.5.
Will definitely feel disappointing to many who are convinced Purdue is already in the driver's seat for a Rose Bowl bid... but I think a 2-2 start still gives us a good chance at another 6-6 season and bowl bid. With the pieces lost on defense this year, the great 2019 recruiting class, and the much tougher schedule this year, I'd view 6-6 as a good season. I'm not expecting an 8-4 or better season till 2019. Remember where this program was just one year ago...
I am realistic enough to agree 8-4 season is unlikely but the 4 home games to open up season are critical. The back half of schedule is very tough w/OSU, MSU, WIS and road games at NEB (we have never won there),TCF Bank (we have never won at that stadium) and IU both in late Nov.
I repeat-The Sept schedule is paramount to any success in 2018..... 2-2 will not cut it
I repeat-The Sept schedule is paramount to any success in 2018..... 2-2 will not cut it
Last edited:
Hey man there's optimists (and hyperbolists) everywhere, WATCH OUT... *adjusts tinfoil hat*
I don't remember seeing any posts from fans on this site expecting a run to the Rose Bowl this year. But what I will say is that we should expect Purdue to be very competitive with Northwestern. Although Purdue lost a lot of experience on D, there's some good talent and more depth. The offense should be more than capable with the experienced OL, QB's, RB's, and TE's. I think Purdue puts up a alot more points this year, which takes pressure off of the D. Plus Brohm has all summer to prepare for Northwestern. If you remember last year's opener, Purdue was a heavy underdog and gave Louisville all they could handle. If I were Northwestern, I'd be worried about this game.
From the preseason lay of the land there are about 6 games that are essentially coin flips. This is one of them. MU and BC are two others, so expect 2-2 to start the season with 3-1 best case. I assume the people expecting a 4-0 start are the same ones who thought a month ago Brohm was going to need more room in the 2019 class to accept commits from Bell, Robinson, Wright, and Sheffield.
I wouldn't say I'm expecting 4-0. But it's certainly likely. Purdue's going to be favored in every game, so let's not act like the first four games is playing the big boys.
A 3 point spread in cfb is essentially a coin flip.
Chance to Win / Spread
100 / 41
95 / 21.5
90 / 16.5
85 / 16
80 / 14
75 / 13
70 / 6.5
65 / 5.5
60 / 5
55 / 2
Source: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/29/1003957/chance-of-a-football-team-winning
Simple stats say if you are favored by 14 points in each of 4 games, the odds you will win all 4 is 41% (.8*.8*.8*.8). Similarly, if you are favored by 6.5 in each of 4 games, the odds you win all 4 is 24%.
If we are favored by 5 against NU and BC, 6.5 against Mizzou, and 14 against EMU, then our most likely outcome is (.6+.6+.7+.8) = 2.7 wins. 3-1 is on the optimistic side but within reasonable expectations.
Last edited:
Northwestern, Missouri, and Boston College are all solid tests in the early season. All might be considered favorites over Purdue on a neutral field. The new faces on defense will need to come together right away as all 3 are probably considered to have more offensive than defensive strengths. Still a ways away from the games but I would imagine all 3 would be high scoring games that will have people wrongly critical of Holt.
Northwestern's strength is their defense, not offense. So I like Purdue's chances if they have their offense in rythm. Boston College is also not an offensive juggernaut. But their defense is relatively strong. Missouri will be the exception. But I think Mizzou will need to show they can stop someone on D.
Think Missouri will be a somewhat similar opponent to Arizona last year in the bowl game. Good offense and a very suspect defense...it’ll be an intriguing game and one that I am sure Missouri has circled after getting blown out at home last year.
Yes, we lost talent on defense, but going into last year, can anyone honestly say that based on 2016, they predicted success in 2017?
It's a little early to say that the D will suck. Sure, there are questions, but the naysayers trying to temper their enthusiasm with a 2-2 prediction aren't giving these players or staff a chance.
We have too many unknown unknowns to be discounting this team just yet. Unlike 2016, we have a coaching foundation in 2018.
It's a little early to say that the D will suck. Sure, there are questions, but the naysayers trying to temper their enthusiasm with a 2-2 prediction aren't giving these players or staff a chance.
We have too many unknown unknowns to be discounting this team just yet. Unlike 2016, we have a coaching foundation in 2018.
I love this! It's very similar to one of my favorite phrases, "people don't know what they don't know."
I guess what I meant by Northwestern was that their schemes and formations have always given us fits over the years. Losing Jackson is big but their gameplan won't change. And if Thorson plays they will put up a bunch of points.
I admittedly don't know much about Boston College but 90% of what I have read focuses on their RB AJ Dillon.
Who is coaching next years team? Brohm? Or the staff that coached the previous four years. Yes. If John shoop was our OC next year I’d be concerned
Thorson threw one TD pass last year against Purdue. Purdue actually outgained Northwestern. But Purdue just couldn't put it in the end zone. With more experience in Brohm's system, I would expect Purdue to put up alot more points than they did last year.
It is irritating that too many Purdue fans are so eager to shit on these players just to protect their egos. We have a great foundation. Will there be disappointments? YES, but why be so quick to embrace a failure. Boiler Up, and show these players the support and enthusiasm they need to be successful on the field and in life.
Similar threads
Purdue men's basketball Purdue 105, Northwestern 96 OT - Game Wrap
