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Painter: Best Coach yet to Make a Final Four

He first hired a full-time analytics position in 2017. He’d certainly used analytics before but this took it to a different level.

I agree with your point. There is little doubt that analytics work over a long period of time. The problem comes when you need to win six games in a row and a statistical outlier can sink you. Over a long enough. period of time the results will navigate back to the mean but that’s not helpful in a single loss tournament. I.e. just keep taking good shots is probably the right approach over the course of a season but it can kill you in a single game.
Exactly. Analytics telling you to shoot more 3s when you haven't hit a damn thing all night is ridiculous. There's such thing as feel for the game
 
What's with the snark, man? Let's discuss like adults, not egoic children.

Ineptitude means "lack of skill or ability."

Painter has displayed a "lack of skill or ability" in beating tremendously inferior, outmatched, lower-seeded teams in the tournament. That is ineptitude.
A coach with a “lack of skill or ability” in the tournament wouldn’t have a 17-15 tournament record.
 
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Hmm, as weird as it sounds, I think Purdue's chances MIGHT be better once Zach is gone.

TKR and Furst should then get all the minutes they can handle, and Smith will be even better, in theory.

That, combined with a more experienced Colvin...but, yeah, getting dynamic guards, like Gicari Harris, seems like it will be really important for Purdue's Final Four hopes.
2025 with Colvin (who could be on same trajectory as Jaden so May be our last year with him) and Catchings (hope he still comes to Purdue) mixed in with the team will hopefully be really fun to watch and be successful.
 
Yeah we don't play in the gray area, you must be a new Purdue fan to not know that.....and money is the biggest driver of recruiting, we just can't compete with the blue bloods there....you saw what Nijel pack did...he didn't go to Miami because of the coach...
I think there's a lot of misconception on what PU is willing to do in the NIL world. Isn't Edey one of the most highly compensated college players at around $1M/yr?

Pack was a very unique situation and it wouldn't have mattered whether it was Purdue, Duke or Kentucky, he was going to Miami to get paid (and Miamis is as far as you can get from blue blood hoops school).
 
Since you care so much about beating higher seeds, tell us, on average, how many teams lose to lower seeded teams each year in the tournament. Your obsession with it makes it look like you think it's a very rare occurrence.
I would be willing to be a lot of money that Purdue is at the top of the list when it comes to upset differential in seedings during Painters tenure.
 
I think there's a lot of misconception on what PU is willing to do in the NIL world. Isn't Edey one of the most highly compensated college players at around $1M/yr?

Pack was a very unique situation and it wouldn't have mattered whether it was Purdue, Duke or Kentucky, he was going to Miami to get paid (and Miamis is as far as you can get from blue blood hoops school).
Purdue does nil how you should...they've gotten edey set up with opportunities to make money....they don't outright buy players out of the portal or blue chip recruits....we don't have shoe companies funneling us cash like iu or Maryland...it's different here...like I said you must not be a long term Purdue fan or you're just naive....
 
Hmm, as weird as it sounds, I think Purdue's chances MIGHT be better once Zach is gone.

TKR and Furst should then get all the minutes they can handle, and Smith will be even better, in theory.

That, combined with a more experienced Colvin...but, yeah, getting dynamic guards, like Gicari Harris, seems like it will be really important for Purdue's Final Four hopes.
We'd be counting a lot on guys we haven't seen play much in 2025. I like Smith a lot and I think TKR could be all B1G after Edey leaves but I'm not sure a backcourt that features guys like Smith and Loyer is good enough to get you to a FF without someone as dominant as Edey.
 
We'd be counting a lot on guys we haven't seen play much in 2025. I like Smith a lot and I think TKR could be all B1G after Edey leaves but I'm not sure a backcourt that features guys like Smith and Loyer is good enough to get you to a FF without someone as dominant as Edey.
I think with the backcourt next year, Colvin would be heavily more involved and we’d ideally be able to mix in Harris, Benter (maybe he redshirts?) and Perry (if he commits, not sure where he’d stand if Harris commits). Then add in (hopefully) Catchings and a little bit more experienced Heide with TKR, Burgess, Berg and Furst. Id say we have a really good mix of experience mixed with (potentially) one of the highest ranked recruiting classes Purdue has had. Now that’s all theoretical of course and a bit of a dream scenario, but if that comes to fruition, I definitely like our chances in 2025 and beyond to compete at a high level and continue to have chances to play in the second weekend and beyond in March.
 
Fair enough. But I also think basketball is MUCH different than football.

One player can have a much greater impact in basketball than in football.

Therefore, you don't NEED multiple top-50 guys in every class.

Class rankings in basketball, in my opinion, are overrated, and not as significant as they are in football.

I think it might be hard to match for Boiler athlete to ever have the impact that Drew Brees did on any sports program in terms of changing everything.
 
Purdue does nil how you should...they've gotten edey set up with opportunities to make money....they don't outright buy players out of the portal or blue chip recruits....we don't have shoe companies funneling us cash like iu or Maryland...it's different here...like I said you must not be a long term Purdue fan or you're just naive....
Where is the proof the iu and MD are getting money funneled to them by the shoe companies?
Purdue has shoe and gear contracts as well.

Are you saying that teams of writing players checks to come to that school? Seems like that would be pretty easy to police and some people would be looking into it. Have you heard about any investigations?

Unless you have hard proof, I think a lot of this money talk is just hearsay. There's definitely grey areas, but if the outright payments to players and their families were that rampant, it would be exposed a lot more.
 
Where is the proof the iu and MD are getting money funneled to them by the shoe companies?
Purdue has shoe and gear contracts as well.

Are you saying that teams of writing players checks to come to that school? Seems like that would be pretty easy to police and some people would be looking into it. Have you heard about any investigations?

Unless you have hard proof, I think a lot of this money talk is just hearsay. There's definitely grey areas, but if the outright payments to players and their families were that rampant, it would be exposed a lot more.
Educate yourself. I’ll get you started:

Google “Bill Self TJ Gassnola” …
 
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He first hired a full-time analytics position in 2017. He’d certainly used analytics before but this took it to a different level.

I agree with your point. There is little doubt that analytics work over a long period of time. The problem comes when you need to win six games in a row and a statistical outlier can sink you. Over a long enough. period of time the results will navigate back to the mean but that’s not helpful in a single loss tournament. I.e. just keep taking good shots is probably the right approach over the course of a season but it can kill you in a single game.
I differ probably from most on analytics. I like modeling and predicting, but unless your model contains all the variables in the data, your model can't predict as accurate as desired sometimes...all a function of the variation of the given data. I think it is a starting point for each game, but also understand the inherent variation inside each prediction...which again is as accurate as the data inside the model. Inside the game there may be results that differ from the predictability and the question at that time...is that difference part of the inherent variation inside the model and will the data regress back to the model average and 1 std dev perhaps. If the model is outside 1 std dev...was it random variation or an assignable cause that made the unlikely...likely? Really, the shot clock helps stabilize analytics creating more similar conditions in a game due to "shot clock time" and player attributes becoming more similar.

However, if various combinations of data are significant such as both team styles, player effectiveness variation due to team styles, player opposition and your player effectiveness, random physical and mental distractions if in play, home & away...there are not enough games with "repeated measures" to study the particular combinations at play to see if they are important in the analytics. If there are no repeated measures for each combination in question, then there exists only one degree of freedom for each combination essentially eliminating any study of a given combination in question. Knowing this, it is my opinion that analytics that a coach has is the best starting point possible, but then a coach has to know when to deviate from the data a bit. Unlike some that "feel" a coach should do this or that to adapt, it is important to understand that a coach can error both ways to be judge by many that think there is a simple answer. The coach can deviate too soon or too late for those that most likely don't have near the questions that goes through the staffs mind in a split second game.

I think many think whatever the model...it is representative of the team. I don't view it that way although I think it is as good as possible for a start of the game. I view the model as reflective of the data gathered due to the team "at the will" of the coach in what positions he places his players as the other coach does the same. That input can and does affect the results of previous data.
 
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Educate yourself. I’ll get you started:

Google “Bill Self TJ Gassnola” …
I didn't say it never happens. It does. It's just not as rampant as some are led to believe and it's certainly not the reason for Purdue losing a lot of recruits. "Everyone else cheats and Purdue doesn't".
 
I didn't say it never happens. It does. It's just not as rampant as some are led to believe and it's certainly not the reason for Purdue losing a lot of recruits. "Everyone else cheats and Purdue doesn't".
now google “Tim Langford Adidas”.
 
Where is the proof the iu and MD are getting money funneled to them by the shoe companies?
Purdue has shoe and gear contracts as well.

Are you saying that teams of writing players checks to come to that school? Seems like that would be pretty easy to police and some people would be looking into it. Have you heard about any investigations?

Unless you have hard proof, I think a lot of this money talk is just hearsay. There's definitely grey areas, but if the outright payments to players and their families were that rampant, it would be exposed a lot more.
Under armor for Maryland....Adidas for iu....romeos dad held up an Adidas sock when he committed to iu...diamond stone was bought and paid for to go to Maryland....look who is sponsoring jhs in the pros....Adidas...there's the proof bruh...but you can bury your head in the sand and pretend it's not happening....
 
Under armor for Maryland....Adidas for iu....romeos dad held up an Adidas sock when he committed to iu...diamond stone was bought and paid for to go to Maryland....look who is sponsoring jhs in the pros....Adidas...there's the proof bruh...but you can bury your head in the sand and pretend it's not happening....

Correct me if I'm wrong (I have been before), but didn't Romeo's dad run an AAU team sponsored by Adidas?
It would make sense in that case, that Romeo is very, very likely going to an Adidas school. Was he promised a contract in the pros for going to an Adidas school? Probably.
But that's much different than reps of iu saying "come to iu and we'll pay you $ amount"

I'm not familiar with the Diamond Stone recruitment.
 
Under armor for Maryland....Adidas for iu....romeos dad held up an Adidas sock when he committed to iu...diamond stone was bought and paid for to go to Maryland....look who is sponsoring jhs in the pros....Adidas...there's the proof bruh...but you can bury your head in the sand and pretend it's not happening....

I'm curious, where does Oregon's recruiting classes rank year in and year out?
If there's any school attached to a big shoe company, it's them.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong (I have been before), but didn't Romeo's dad run an AAU team sponsored by Adidas?
It would make sense in that case, that Romeo is very, very likely going to an Adidas school. Was he promised a contract in the pros for going to an Adidas school? Probably.
But that's much different than reps of iu saying "come to iu and we'll pay you $ amount"

I'm not familiar with the Diamond Stone recruitment.
Adidas gave Langfords money to go to an adidas school.

IU is an adidas school.

Langford went to IU.

Not hard to connect the dots. If you don’t think Archie was involved in the transaction, you are being naive.
 
Adidas gave Langfords money to go to an adidas school.

IU is an adidas school.

Langford went to IU.

Not hard to connect the dots. If you don’t think Archie was involved in the transaction, you are being naive.
But again, was Langfords dad coaching an AAU tean sponsored by Adidas before he went to iu?
 
When else would Romeo be playing AAU??
I'm not sure I'm making the connection you are between Adidas paying Langford to go to iu?

Adidas was paying Langford's dad. So yeh, there was probably some unwritten agreement that Langford would be going to an Adidas school. If it wasn't iu, it would have been some other high profile Adidas school. iu happen to be convenient.
Do you think if Adidas quit funding his dad's aau program prior to making iu his college choice that Romeo still goes to iu?
Had Nike come in with more funding, Romeo would have gone to a Nike school. His dad's not going to kill the cash cow.

Now, all that is very different from Adidas saying, "Here's $100K, but you only get it if you go to iu"
 
I'm not sure I'm making the connection you are between Adidas paying Langford to go to iu?

Adidas was paying Langford's dad. So yeh, there was probably some unwritten agreement that Langford would be going to an Adidas school. If it wasn't iu, it would have been some other high profile Adidas school. iu happen to be convenient.
Do you think if Adidas quit funding his dad's aau program prior to making iu his college choice that Romeo still goes to iu?
Had Nike come in with more funding, Romeo would have gone to a Nike school. His dad's not going to kill the cash cow.

Now, all that is very different from Adidas saying, "Here's $100K, but you only get it if you go to iu"
google “Tim Langford Adidas”.
 
google “Tim Langford Adidas”.
I Googled it. And....it's EXACTLY what I said. No surprise and nothing illegal. Again, if Nike had approached Tim Langford with an offer to fund his AAU team, do you think Romeo ends up at iu?

Would you be upset if a Purdue recruits dad was an AAU coach, that was funded by Nike, and that recruit chose Purdue over....let's say....a non-Nike school..like iu?

Again, this is far different than what you were implying, which was that Adidas showed up at the Langford house with a bag of cash and said "Here, this is yours, but you have to go to iu to keep it".
Adidas may have shown up with a bag of cash, but they probably said "Here, this is yours, but you have to go to a high profile Adidas bbal school to keep it"
 
Again, you're leaving out all context. How many of those wins came as heavy favorites?

How many of those losses came againts massively inferior teams?
CMP Last 10 NCAAs with Context
2013 - Missed NCAA
2014 - Missed NCAA
2015 - #9 seed, 1st Round Loss to #8 Cincy
2016 - #5 seed, 1st Round Loass to #12 Ark LR
2017 - #4 seed, SW16 loss to #1 KU by 32 points
2018 - #2 seed, SW16 loss to #3 Tex Tech
2019 - #3 seed, E8 Loass to #1 VA (CMP one shot and he choked)
2020 - COVID, ** Would have missed dance as a 10 seed in B10T
2021 - #4 seed, 1st Round Loss to #13 N TX
2022 - #3 seed, SW16 loss to #15 St Peters
2023 - #1 seed, 1st round loss to #16 FDU

So in 10 years,
- Missed 3 of 10 NCAAs
- 5 of 7 Dance appearances were losses to a seed lower than us
- Only 4 of 10 years did he make out of 1st round

EMBARRASING
 
CMP Last 10 NCAAs with Context
2013 - Missed NCAA
2014 - Missed NCAA
2015 - #9 seed, 1st Round Loss to #8 Cincy
2016 - #5 seed, 1st Round Loass to #12 Ark LR
2017 - #4 seed, SW16 loss to #1 KU by 32 points
2018 - #2 seed, SW16 loss to #3 Tex Tech
2019 - #3 seed, E8 Loass to #1 VA (CMP one shot and he choked)
2020 - COVID, ** Would have missed dance as a 10 seed in B10T
2021 - #4 seed, 1st Round Loss to #13 N TX
2022 - #3 seed, SW16 loss to #15 St Peters
2023 - #1 seed, 1st round loss to #16 FDU

So in 10 years,
- Missed 3 of 10 NCAAs
- 5 of 7 Dance appearances were losses to a seed lower than us
- Only 4 of 10 years did he make out of 1st round

EMBARRASING
While some losses are embarrasS*ing…

2015 - young team, however we did blow an 8 point lead with 1-2 min to go
2016 - this one sucked as we blew a late lead again, to a young Chris Beard in the making
2017 - for this team to get to the S16, was pretty good accomplishment. KU had 3 Nba draft picks and NPOY, so we were already outmatched
2018 - lost our biggest weapon in first round when Haas broke his arm. We weren’t going to beat nova if we got to next round as they won it all that year
2019 - not sure how this is painters fault? Carsen had to go ballistic and Cline was out of his mind game before. Cline also missed a FT that would have put us up 3 before the infamous shot. Also, we get the rebound there, it’s a diff story. Also, it was a perfectly executed play that had a very low probability of actually happening. If anything, painter let Carsen play and that allowed the team to go that far
2020 - oof not a good team
2021 - this one was surprising…especially with Jaden and Tre, but they weren’t ready to play
2022 - on paper, should have beat SP. Jaden decided to have his worst career game and I don’t say this is as embarrassing as UK losing to them in the first round that year. SP also beat a Murray state team in rd of 32. They were deserving of being there.
2023 - yes, worst loss in history of ncaa tourney and that one stung

Pretty sure a lot of teams and fan bases would like to be in the last 4 of 6 S16s. Unfortunately, it hasn’t gone our way except once, but the more times we get there, the more opps we have to breakthrough.
 
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CMP Last 10 NCAAs with Context
2013 - Missed NCAA
2014 - Missed NCAA
2015 - #9 seed, 1st Round Loss to #8 Cincy
2016 - #5 seed, 1st Round Loass to #12 Ark LR
2017 - #4 seed, SW16 loss to #1 KU by 32 points
2018 - #2 seed, SW16 loss to #3 Tex Tech
2019 - #3 seed, E8 Loass to #1 VA (CMP one shot and he choked)
2020 - COVID, ** Would have missed dance as a 10 seed in B10T
2021 - #4 seed, 1st Round Loss to #13 N TX
2022 - #3 seed, SW16 loss to #15 St Peters
2023 - #1 seed, 1st round loss to #16 FDU

So in 10 years,
- Missed 3 of 10 NCAAs
- 5 of 7 Dance appearances were losses to a seed lower than us
- Only 4 of 10 years did he make out of 1st round

EMBARRASING
Your math skills tell me you didn’t go to Purdue.
 
Your math skills tell me you didn’t go to Purdue.
Nice deflection to the topic at hand. You should just sit down and shut up. You are CMP biggest apologist. Let the real PU fans have a real discussion. Maybe you should worry about CMP betting a double digit seed as that’s the real topic.
 
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I Googled it. And....it's EXACTLY what I said. No surprise and nothing illegal. Again, if Nike had approached Tim Langford with an offer to fund his AAU team, do you think Romeo ends up at iu?

Would you be upset if a Purdue recruits dad was an AAU coach, that was funded by Nike, and that recruit chose Purdue over....let's say....a non-Nike school..like iu?

Again, this is far different than what you were implying, which was that Adidas showed up at the Langford house with a bag of cash and said "Here, this is yours, but you have to go to iu to keep it".
Adidas may have shown up with a bag of cash, but they probably said "Here, this is yours, but you have to go to a high profile Adidas bbal school to keep it"
Never said it was illegal.

How do you know adidas reps didn’t have the same convos that they did with Self?

At the bare minimum, IU had a recruit purchased by their apparel supplier, and eliminated 90% of their competition for him.

Nike doesn’t do that for Purdue. They do that for Kentucky and Duke.
 
Nice deflection to the topic at hand. You should just sit down and shut up. You are CMP biggest apologist. Let the real PU fans have a real discussion. Maybe you should worry about CMP betting a double digit seed as that’s the real topic.
Beat it troll.
 
While some losses are embarrasS*ing…

2015 - young team, however we did blow an 8 point lead with 1-2 min to go
2016 - this one sucked as we blew a late lead again, to a young Chris Beard in the making
2017 - for this team to get to the S16, was pretty good accomplishment. KU had 3 Nba draft picks and NPOY, so we were already outmatched
2018 - lost our biggest weapon in first round when Haas broke his arm. We weren’t going to beat nova if we got to next round as they won it all that year
2019 - not sure how this is painters fault? Carsen had to go ballistic and Cline was out of his mind game before. Cline also missed a FT that would have put us up 3 before the infamous shot. Also, we get the rebound there, it’s a diff story. Also, it was a perfectly executed play that had a very low probability of actually happening. If anything, painter let Carsen play and that allowed the team to go that far
2020 - oof not a good team
2021 - this one was surprising…especially with Jaden and Tre, but they weren’t ready to play
2022 - on paper, should have beat SP. Jaden decided to have his worst career game and I don’t say this is as embarrassing as UK losing to them in the first round that year. SP also beat a Murray state team in rd of 32. They were deserving of being there.
2023 - yes, worst loss in history of ncaa tourney and that one stung

Pretty sure a lot of teams and fan bases would like to be in the last 4 of 6 S16s. Unfortunately, it hasn’t gone our way except once, but the more times we get there, the more opps we have to breakthrough.

While there is some truth to your statements, every team has issues around their team and can make sane excuses. At what point will CMP be held accountable?

When you are a 1-4 seed, you can throw all the excuses out the window. When your team achieved that seed line, they are expected to perform..unless you’re Painter and PU. Why is that? If a MSU/UM/IL/OSU coach had that record, this board would call that coach a fraud.
 
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