I think there's some sense of "relief" that we'll now be in the tournament. Well, we still need 18 wins most likely, and unless we win another on the road, that means winning out at home.
We certainly are capable of it - but Penn State is also the toughest team left on our home schedule. After a couple good wins, we certainly are not in a position to get cocky.
Some areas to point out:
1. We're basically opposites in terms of offense/defense. Purdue is at the top in scoring defense, Penn State is at the top in scoring offense. And both teams are in similar spots in the opposite stat respectively.
2. They don't shoot the 3 particularly well and don't defend it particularly well. However, Jones is a strong shooter from the perimeter so have to keep him in check.
3. Purdue has a slight edge in rebounding - although the differences in offensive shooting could play a role in that.
4. Penn State leads the Big Ten in steals (we're 3rd, but it's a noticeable drop off from Penn State to everyone else). This is notable because Penn State doesn't necessarily hold opponents to bad shooting, but obviously relies a lot on pressure.
5. Purdue and Penn State are both at the top of turnover margin.
Any time you're a not great offense going against a pretty great scoring offense, finding ways to close that potential gap is key.
Rebounding hard will be #1 - Penn State is good at defensive boards and taking away second chances, Purdue is good with offensive boards.
Penn State's defense relies on taking the ball away. They don't necessarily guard the perimeter that well, which is good for Purdue. Purdue's gotta take care of the basketball and not give Penn State extra possessions.
Overall, this is a team that on paper Purdue can play well against. However, it relies on keeping a small forward in check - something we've been hit and miss on. And while Penn State has 2 clear scoring leaders, it's a pretty balanced team after that -- you can't let a guy like Watkins eat you for dinner inside.
Penn State is on a roll and they aren't scared of coming into Mackey. Purdue's done a great job of really commanding the tone and pace of games lately. Hopefully Penn State doesn't have an unusually "on" night shooting wise.
