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new polling out

qazplm

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Feb 5, 2003
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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-opens-12-point-lead-trump-thirds-biased/story?id=40114224

Clinton up 12, Obama approval at 56%. topline number 51-39 (so she's OVER 50 percent in this poll)

Well that must be an outlier, right?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-...lead-over-trump-reuters-154336652.html?ref=gs

Clinton up 13 in this poll. 46 to 33 in this one, so near but not over 50 percent.

Both polls go through last Friday.

Gallup has Obama at 53% approval. Even Rasmussen has him with positive approval ratings.

I keep saying Trump is going to be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats.

Sending out Obama on one of the highest final approval ratings in modern history
Electing a third term for Democrats
Taking back the Senate

I also predict at least one or two usually red states either goes blue or is within 2 percent (looking at you GA, AZ, and possibly UT).

House? Eh, that's a pipe dream.

Probably.
 
Will the DNC roll the dice on Hillary?

It seems as if there are some...problems down the road for Hillary.

We now have Hillary's own word that she wanted to dodge a FOIA.

She made the State Department drop their security so she could send emails, otherwise flagged as hostile, to SD officials.

Woof. IT folks are spinning mad regardless of party.
 
a huge range?

1. Every poll shows Hillary ahead (ignoring that some of the polls on your list are older than the ones I listed just this weekend
2. Just the polls you listed + Reuters at +13, shows an average lead of 6 pts.
3. In your link she leads in every single battleground state. She only has to win one if it's Florida, two if it's any others, and that's assuming her lead in AZ doesn't hold. She can lose NC, and OH, and PA, and CO, and VA, if all she does is win FL.

I appreciate you helping lay out just how good the news is.
 
Will the DNC roll the dice on Hillary?

It seems as if there are some...problems down the road for Hillary.

We now have Hillary's own word that she wanted to dodge a FOIA.

She made the State Department drop their security so she could send emails, otherwise flagged as hostile, to SD officials.

Woof. IT folks are spinning mad regardless of party.
Well...heaven forbid we lose the IT vote. That's crucial.
 
Will the DNC roll the dice on Hillary?

It seems as if there are some...problems down the road for Hillary.

We now have Hillary's own word that she wanted to dodge a FOIA.

She made the State Department drop their security so she could send emails, otherwise flagged as hostile, to SD officials.

Woof. IT folks are spinning mad regardless of party.
Why wouldn't the DNC roil the dice with Hillary? There was a poll in late May, 71% of Dems polled said she should stay in the race even if she is indicted. So obviously the majority of the party doesn't care what she did in regards to the emails and national security.
 
Why wouldn't the DNC roil the dice with Hillary? There was a poll in late May, 71% of Dems polled said she should stay in the race even if she is indicted. So obviously the majority of the party doesn't care what she did in regards to the emails and national security.

Equally as scary as a Trump presidency.

I can't understand this "look the other way" attitude of the Democrats.
 
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Equally as scary as a Trump presidency.

I can't understand this "look the other way" attitude of the Democrats.

I cannot buy the equivalency of these two candidates. Trump is a complete and total wildcard; an unself-controllable, narcissistic bullshit artist whose intellect is limited to 140 character tweets. Even if Hillary is as bad as you think she is, which I think is unlikely, she's still a better choice than this Frankenstein's monster composed of tea party "liberty" and right wing populism.
 
Equally as scary as a Trump presidency.

I can't understand this "look the other way" attitude of the Democrats.
lol no, not remotely equally as scary. But I get it, you've gone full steam on the Democrats and liberals are hypocrites train.
 
a huge range?

1. Every poll shows Hillary ahead (ignoring that some of the polls on your list are older than the ones I listed just this weekend
2. Just the polls you listed + Reuters at +13, shows an average lead of 6 pts.
3. In your link she leads in every single battleground state. She only has to win one if it's Florida, two if it's any others, and that's assuming her lead in AZ doesn't hold. She can lose NC, and OH, and PA, and CO, and VA, if all she does is win FL.

I appreciate you helping lay out just how good the news is.
a huge range?

1. Every poll shows Hillary ahead (ignoring that some of the polls on your list are older than the ones I listed just this weekend
2. Just the polls you listed + Reuters at +13, shows an average lead of 6 pts.
3. In your link she leads in every single battleground state. She only has to win one if it's Florida, two if it's any others, and that's assuming her lead in AZ doesn't hold. She can lose NC, and OH, and PA, and CO, and VA, if all she does is win FL.

I appreciate you helping lay out just how good the news is.

Your initial post indicated a 12-13% lead. You chose to use polling data that was the most Favorable. The NBC poll Of only 1 percent was from last week too. She is leading in most battleground states but by narrow margins. Certainly not 12%. Obama's approval rating last week was 50%, not 55% as you reported. Gallup has him at 50%, not 53%

Reading your analysis is like listening to. MSNBC. Their motto is "we make the news what we want it to be".
 
Your initial post indicated a 12-13% lead. You chose to use polling data that was the most Favorable. The NBC poll Of only 1 percent was from last week too. She is leading in most battleground states but by narrow margins. Certainly not 12%. Obama's approval rating last week was 50%, not 55% as you reported. Gallup has him at 50%, not 53%

Reading your analysis is like listening to. MSNBC. Their motto is "we make the news what we want it to be".
He's a clinton social media specialist who gets little talking points in his email everyday and runs around the internet posting them. It's really pointless to talk to him. He doesn't want discussion, only to push agendas.
 
Your initial post indicated a 12-13% lead. You chose to use polling data that was the most Favorable. The NBC poll Of only 1 percent was from last week too. She is leading in most battleground states but by narrow margins. Certainly not 12%. Obama's approval rating last week was 50%, not 55% as you reported. Gallup has him at 50%, not 53%

Reading your analysis is like listening to. MSNBC. Their motto is "we make the news what we want it to be".
My initial post noted the two most recent polls had double digit leads. I did not say there weren't other polls, I picked the two ones that came out a day before I posted. You then went back further in time to earlier polls save I believe one but even then all you did was prove that Clinton was ahead by an average of 6 pts going back more than a week.

The 55% was from one poll, Gallup is a rolling average, it's 50 NOW, it was 53 before, either way it's higher than Reagan was at this point and time in his presidency.

But sure, he's "unpopular," even more than Reagan. Right?
And she should be afraid to average a larger lead than Obama's win over McCain and to lead in every single Battleground state. Right?

LOL
 
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-opens-12-point-lead-trump-thirds-biased/story?id=40114224

Clinton up 12, Obama approval at 56%. topline number 51-39 (so she's OVER 50 percent in this poll)

Well that must be an outlier, right?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-...lead-over-trump-reuters-154336652.html?ref=gs

Clinton up 13 in this poll. 46 to 33 in this one, so near but not over 50 percent.

Both polls go through last Friday.

Gallup has Obama at 53% approval. Even Rasmussen has him with positive approval ratings.

I keep saying Trump is going to be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats.

Sending out Obama on one of the highest final approval ratings in modern history
Electing a third term for Democrats
Taking back the Senate

I also predict at least one or two usually red states either goes blue or is within 2 percent (looking at you GA, AZ, and possibly UT).

House? Eh, that's a pipe dream.

Probably.

I think we all know national polls only mean so much.

The polling out so far has been a bit inconsistent, particularly the individual state polls. However, early indications are this could be a slightly adjusted race than what we've gotten used to in the past few presidential elections. So far, Hillary looks to be doing "fine" in Florida - not easily winning, but seems to have an edge. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania, which hasn't been that much of a battleground in recent elections, seems to be very competitive.

Obviously you can attribute these changes right now to working class/rust belt vs. latino/diversity population swings. In addition, states like Virginia and even North Carolina have looked to be in Hillary's favor - while Ohio/Michigan has been closer. Same themes.

It's very early right now and as we learned with 2008, things out of anyone's control can change things quickly.

One big question I have (and could play a big difference) is the GOTV effort being put in place by each candidate. Trump has a very small staff and the get out the vote operation was never great for him in the primaries. Obviously Trump relied on other things like popularity and the press. However, as has been pointed out - primary crowds and general election crowds are two very different things. Whether Trump can continue to be successful is a question (and while he won the primary, he also won it without 50% of the vote). Hillary will be using Obama's heralded operation (which even 'trumped' what used to be the gold standard with the GOP's). Now, this will likely be more of a negative campaign than any sort of positive campaign - at least as of now. Which could hamper energy levels on both sides, but in the swing states - that GOTV operation can make a huge difference.

Bragging about polls right now is nothing more than political mind games in a 24 hour news cycle.
 
I think we all know national polls only mean so much.

The polling out so far has been a bit inconsistent, particularly the individual state polls. However, early indications are this could be a slightly adjusted race than what we've gotten used to in the past few presidential elections. So far, Hillary looks to be doing "fine" in Florida - not easily winning, but seems to have an edge. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania, which hasn't been that much of a battleground in recent elections, seems to be very competitive.

Obviously you can attribute these changes right now to working class/rust belt vs. latino/diversity population swings. In addition, states like Virginia and even North Carolina have looked to be in Hillary's favor - while Ohio/Michigan has been closer. Same themes.

It's very early right now and as we learned with 2008, things out of anyone's control can change things quickly.

One big question I have (and could play a big difference) is the GOTV effort being put in place by each candidate. Trump has a very small staff and the get out the vote operation was never great for him in the primaries. Obviously Trump relied on other things like popularity and the press. However, as has been pointed out - primary crowds and general election crowds are two very different things. Whether Trump can continue to be successful is a question (and while he won the primary, he also won it without 50% of the vote). Hillary will be using Obama's heralded operation (which even 'trumped' what used to be the gold standard with the GOP's). Now, this will likely be more of a negative campaign than any sort of positive campaign - at least as of now. Which could hamper energy levels on both sides, but in the swing states - that GOTV operation can make a huge difference.

Bragging about polls right now is nothing more than political mind games in a 24 hour news cycle.
Dont agree. I think polling can tell us something, even right now. It's not as much about individual numbers as it is as collective, holistic view...and that view is that:

Women are strongly for Clinton
The gap in white men is smaller than it was for Obama
The gap for Hispanics is larger than it was in 08 or 12
Obama's popularity is not going to be a problem unless something significant happens to make it turn down
She leads in every battleground state and makes some normally not purple states like AZ, GA and even UT competitive. She won't win them all, and she won't win all the BG states, but her positioning right now is quite strong.

To me that means it's Trump that will have to come up with a status quo changer, and the problem there is he's as prone to make it worse for him as better. She just needs to avoid a serious malfunction.

If it's about GOTV, these polls show that all Clinton has to do is get most of the Obama coalition, and sprinkle in her improved standing among Hispanics, and the path for Trump is pretty much foreclosed.

Put another way, there isn't a secret pool of angry white men out there that is going to save Trump, he isn't going to surprise her with women, and he isn't loved by "the blacks" or "the latinos."
 
My initial post noted the two most recent polls had double digit leads. I did not say there weren't other polls, I picked the two ones that came out a day before I posted. You then went back further in time to earlier polls save I believe one but even then all you did was prove that Clinton was ahead by an average of 6 pts going back more than a week.

The 55% was from one poll, Gallup is a rolling average, it's 50 NOW, it was 53 before, either way it's higher than Reagan was at this point and time in his presidency.

But sure, he's "unpopular," even more than Reagan. Right?
And she should be afraid to average a larger lead than Obama's win over McCain and to lead in every single Battleground state. Right?

LOL
I really don't care about the polls. I was just pushing your button. You come across as a die hard dem who votes party regardless of who is running, etc. I am not a Republican or a Democrat. I am an American who firmly believes that our country has been totally hijacked by big money politics in Both parties.
 
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I really don't care about the polls. I was just pushing your button. You come across as a die hard dem who votes party regardless of who is running, etc. I am not a Republican or a Democrat. I am an American who firmly believes that our country has been totally hijacked by big money politics in Both parties.
so you got nothing..ok. Yes yes...you're one of those "I'm above it all" folks.
 
Dont agree. I think polling can tell us something, even right now. It's not as much about individual numbers as it is as collective, holistic view...and that view is that:

Women are strongly for Clinton
The gap in white men is smaller than it was for Obama
The gap for Hispanics is larger than it was in 08 or 12
Obama's popularity is not going to be a problem unless something significant happens to make it turn down
She leads in every battleground state and makes some normally not purple states like AZ, GA and even UT competitive. She won't win them all, and she won't win all the BG states, but her positioning right now is quite strong.

To me that means it's Trump that will have to come up with a status quo changer, and the problem there is he's as prone to make it worse for him as better. She just needs to avoid a serious malfunction.

If it's about GOTV, these polls show that all Clinton has to do is get most of the Obama coalition, and sprinkle in her improved standing among Hispanics, and the path for Trump is pretty much foreclosed.

Put another way, there isn't a secret pool of angry white men out there that is going to save Trump, he isn't going to surprise her with women, and he isn't loved by "the blacks" or "the latinos."

Like I said...they only mean so much. I didn't say meaningless.

As I mentioned, she might be "ahead" in many of the swing states - but polls in some states that have been going for Democrats are much tighter at this point than they finished in the last several Presidential elections. Doesn't mean they'll stay that way. Like I said, polls only mean so much right now - when you see a poll with 2 candidates and they are 40-39 - obviously you're missing 20% of the vote somewhere and often times, you're seeing 10+% unsure/no specific candidate. A win in a Florida is heavily erased by a loss in a Pennsylvania and/or Ohio.

That being said, flexibility matters. Both McCain and Romney had very little wiggle room in their elections. For Trump picking up a Pennsylvania, Clinton could pick up a North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, etc.

But like I said, voter turnout matters. Saying Clinton just needs to keep Obama's coalition sounds great, but is easier said than done. It's not going to be an inspirational campaign and Clinton has done ok with the base - but voter turnout will be key. We all know the minority vote is less reliable on turnout - and quite frankly, Clinton is not black. You're not going to see historic turnout from African Americans in Virginia and North Carolina, for example.
 
Like I said...they only mean so much. I didn't say meaningless.

As I mentioned, she might be "ahead" in many of the swing states - but polls in some states that have been going for Democrats are much tighter at this point than they finished in the last several Presidential elections. Doesn't mean they'll stay that way. Like I said, polls only mean so much right now - when you see a poll with 2 candidates and they are 40-39 - obviously you're missing 20% of the vote somewhere and often times, you're seeing 10+% unsure/no specific candidate. A win in a Florida is heavily erased by a loss in a Pennsylvania and/or Ohio.

That being said, flexibility matters. Both McCain and Romney had very little wiggle room in their elections. For Trump picking up a Pennsylvania, Clinton could pick up a North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, etc.

But like I said, voter turnout matters. Saying Clinton just needs to keep Obama's coalition sounds great, but is easier said than done. It's not going to be an inspirational campaign and Clinton has done ok with the base - but voter turnout will be key. We all know the minority vote is less reliable on turnout - and quite frankly, Clinton is not black. You're not going to see historic turnout from African Americans in Virginia and North Carolina, for example.
actually the group with the largest turnout percentage...black women.

I think you are doing the standard liberal fear of winning thing...this is a real lead, its a solid lead, and its only going to get better. Embrace it.
 
New polls are out today Qaz.
and the average with those new polls still favors Clinton by a lot, and Clinton is still ahead even in those Q-polls.

So, if Trump were ahead in nearly every single poll, for weeks, from 1-13 pts, you would say...doesn't mean anything, Trump's not ahead, it's meaningless.

Right?

And the Qpoll has her up 8 in FL. If that's true, it's over, done, finished.

And another new poll:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html
Granted, I don't think she wins by that margin in FL, OH or PA...or really any of those states, but I think she absolutely wins all of them save maybe NC.
  • 51% to 37% in Florida
  • 45% to 41% in Iowa
  • 50% to 33% in Michigan
  • 48% to 38% in North Carolina
  • 46% to 37% in Ohio
  • 49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
  • 45% to 38% in Virginia
And another! Fox News has her up 6 pts and Drumpf under 40 percent.
 
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and the average with those new polls still favors Clinton by a lot, and Clinton is still ahead even in those Q-polls.

So, if Trump were ahead in nearly every single poll, for weeks, from 1-13 pts, you would say...doesn't mean anything, Trump's not ahead, it's meaningless.

Right?

And the Qpoll has her up 8 in FL. If that's true, it's over, done, finished.

And another new poll:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html
Granted, I don't think she wins by that margin in FL, OH or PA...or really any of those states, but I think she absolutely wins all of them save maybe NC.
  • 51% to 37% in Florida
  • 45% to 41% in Iowa
  • 50% to 33% in Michigan
  • 48% to 38% in North Carolina
  • 46% to 37% in Ohio
  • 49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
  • 45% to 38% in Virginia
And another! Fox News has her up 6 pts and Drumpf under 40 percent.

Thanks for keeping us informed. I knew you could do it!!
 
Thanks for keeping us informed. I knew you could do it!!
That's the kind of response someone gives when they know the right answer is, you've got a point, but they don't wanna say it.

I get it...that evil b...woman is going to be President! It's a tough pill to swallow.
 
Sure. If the result is a foregone conclusion, why bother with an election?
who said it was a "foregone conclusion." I realize you are just trolling, but it works better if it's something someone actually said.

Hillary is winning nationally, she's winning in battleground states, she's creating new battleground states, she's winning big time with all minorities and women.

That seems relevant.

Now, if she's indicted or some black swan event comes along that completely changes everything, then she could lose.

Which is the difference between heavily favored and almost certain to win as things stand now...and "Forgone conclusion."

(but you knew that)
 
I cannot buy the equivalency of these two candidates. Trump is a complete and total wildcard; an unself-controllable, narcissistic bullshit artist whose intellect is limited to 140 character tweets. Even if Hillary is as bad as you think she is, which I think is unlikely, she's still a better choice than this Frankenstein's monster composed of tea party "liberty" and right wing populism.

I wouldn't buy it either.

Hillary is a known criminal. We know what she has done and more and more is leaked everyday. Pay to play with Fernando to get the ball rolling.

I haven't seen a Hillary backer explain Fernando with any sense of clarity.

Clinton Foundation. Who thinks that is on the up and up?

I'll take the wildcard vs. a know a criminal who is untouchable by either the law or press.

I don't need Bill having private meeting with AG. I'll 4 years of a doofus vs. 4 years of a known criminal. There are still checks and balances. The Clinton machine is somehow immune.

Did I mention Sid?

Hillary's rise to power is disgusting and runs counter to liberal values. Full stop.
 
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Well...heaven forbid we lose the IT vote. That's crucial.

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I wouldn't buy it either.

Hillary is a known criminal. We know what she has done and more and more is leaked everyday. Pay to play with Fernando to get the ball rolling.

I haven't seen a Hillary backer explain Fernando with any sense of clarity.

Clinton Foundation. Who thinks that is on the up and up?

I'll take the wildcard vs. a know a criminal who is untouchable by either the law or press.

I don't need Bill having private meeting with AG. I'll 4 years of a doofus vs. 4 years of a known criminal. There are still checks and balances. The Clinton machine is somehow immune.

Did I mention Sid?

Hillary's rise to power is disgusting and runs counter to liberal values. Full stop.
lmao if you think Hillary is counter to liberal values but somehow pretend that Trump is better then you ain't no liberal. Full stop.
CDS is full-fledged with you.
 
lmao if you think Hillary is counter to liberal values but somehow pretend that Trump is better then you ain't no liberal. Full stop.
CDS is full-fledged with you.

Explain Fernando.

Tell me how it fits into a liberal philosophy.

Tell me how TPP benefits the worker.

Tell me how admitting to wanting to avoid FOIA requests is liberal. We know she deleted emails that she said she handed over.

Sniper fire vs. kids with flowers.

Hillary is as far from liberal as Donald himself. Hillary will say and do anything necessary. She isn't a public servant. She is a Hillary servant.

Whoopsie!!!!! Bill had a secret meeting with the AG. Of course they talked grandkids.

I have integrity. I can't vote for a known felon.

I could go on if you wish...
 
Explain Fernando.

Tell me how it fits into a liberal philosophy.

Tell me how TPP benefits the worker.

Tell me how admitting to wanting to avoid FOIA requests is liberal. We know she deleted emails that she said she handed over.

Sniper fire vs. kids with flowers.

Hillary is as far from liberal as Donald himself. Hillary will say and do anything necessary. She isn't a public servant. She is a Hillary servant.

Whoopsie!!!!! Bill had a secret meeting with the AG. Of course they talked grandkids.

I have integrity. I can't vote for a known felon.

I could go on if you wish...
lol but you can vote for a guy who bilks folks out of money with Trump U, who refuses to pay small businessmen at all or only at cut rates, who's a racist, sexist, who said he didn't want a black man counting his money only a Jew, "I could go on if you wish." Who flips on critical issues in the same speech. Who thinks people get paid too much. Integrity my ass.

Hillary isn't a liberal, never said she was. She's against TPP by the way. So all you've got is emails, FOIA and sniper fire? lol

But comparing the two of them? lol Pure CDS.
 
"Trolling" is to make a deliberately offensive or provocative online posting with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.

I wasn't aiming for either. My comment was about the perceived infallibility of 538 and Nate Silver. And I don't believe anyone could reasonably read my post and find it offensive, provocative or upsetting. It was tongue-in-cheek. Hence, not "trolling."
 
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