Minutes

[GeistBoiler]

I think we will see numerous different starting lineups this year, but here is what I would like to see Painter do with the minutes. Some are obvious, but Berg, Jacobson, Furst, Burgess are not easy calls. My thought is that none of these young bigs are good enough to justify taking heavy minutes away from our wings. I would rather see a 7 footer at the 5 situationally vs forcing it just because that's how it's we have played in recent history.

Berg and Jacobson are not currently at the level of a 3rd year Edey, Haas, or Hammons that all justified as many minutes as they could handle. Assuming they can rebound, this year's wing players appear to be too skilled and experienced to lose minutes to a 5 who isn't extremely productive on both ends.

Smith - 30 MPG, I don't want to see 40 minutes from Braden this year. We need him to stay fresh through the year, so a minute reduction would be smart if it doesn't cost us games.
Loyer - 25-30MPG, Same as Smith, but he is less important to play heavy minutes because of who is behind him
TKR - 30 MPG, We have enough frontcourt depth that he shouldn't have to go more than this
Harris- 20MPG, Maybe more depending on how he develops
Cox - 20MPG, Same as Harris

Heide - 20 MPG
Colvin - 20MPG
FURST - 15-20MPG, I think his experience and defensive abilities against smaller 5's are going to be highly valuable this year.
Berg - 5-10MPG, I can't see him being anything more than a situation player this year. Play him when there is a big 5 to body up with, but I'd rather see Furst or even Burgess or a small lineup with TKR at 5
Jacobson - 5-10 MPG, Same as Berg, but I'd force feed him some minutes instead of Berg just because he has more upside and is our 5 of the future.
Waddell 5MPG - Injury Insurance and mopup
Burgess - Redshirt, I think he will be a valuable contributor next year, but I don't see him taking enough minutes from Furst, Berg, or Jacobson to justify burning an entire year.

 

[BBG]

Burgess - Redshirt, I think he will be a valuable contributor next year, but I don't see him taking enough minutes from Furst, Berg, or Jacobson to justify burning an entire year.

Agree with this one and if the hype is real, you might even see Jacobson get the starting nod.

Lots of talent.. not enough minutes for everyone.. it's a GREAT problem to have.

 

[pubill]

I think we will see numerous different starting lineups this year, but here is what I would like to see Painter do with the minutes. Some are obvious, but Berg, Jacobson, Furst, Burgess are not easy calls. My thought is that none of these young bigs are good enough to justify taking heavy minutes away from our wings. I would rather see a 7 footer at the 5 situationally vs forcing it just because that's how it's we have played in recent history.

Berg and Jacobson are not currently at the level of a 3rd year Edey, Haas, or Hammons that all justified as many minutes as they could handle. Assuming they can rebound, this year's wing players appear to be too skilled and experienced to lose minutes to a 5 who isn't extremely productive on both ends.

Smith - 30 MPG, I don't want to see 40 minutes from Braden this year. We need him to stay fresh through the year, so a minute reduction would be smart if it doesn't cost us games.
Loyer - 25-30MPG, Same as Smith, but he is less important to play heavy minutes because of who is behind him
TKR - 30 MPG, We have enough frontcourt depth that he shouldn't have to go more than this
Harris- 20MPG, Maybe more depending on how he develops
Cox - 20MPG, Same as Harris

Heide - 20 MPG
Colvin - 20MPG
FURST - 15-20MPG, I think his experience and defensive abilities against smaller 5's are going to be highly valuable this year.
Berg - 5-10MPG, I can't see him being anything more than a situation player this year. Play him when there is a big 5 to body up with, but I'd rather see Furst or even Burgess or a small lineup with TKR at 5
Jacobson - 5-10 MPG, Same as Berg, but I'd force feed him some minutes instead of Berg just because he has more upside and is our 5 of the future.
Waddell 5MPG - Injury Insurance and mopup
Burgess - Redshirt, I think he will be a valuable contributor next year, but I don't see him taking enough minutes from Furst, Berg, or Jacobson to justify burning an entire year.

Disagree Burgess needs to play this year.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Good post. Some thoughts.

1. I don't foresee different starting lineups during the course of the season. For the most part, CMP sticks with something. Now that doesn't mean more minutes could develop for certain players during the course of the season. Or a scenario where mid-season, someone like Heide emerges into the starting lineup, switching things up and putting TKR into the 5. But I don't think it's going to go back-and-forth and definitely won't be based on the opponent's lineup.

2. I think, while the early going won't show it, either Berg or Jacobsen will emerge as the primary 7-footer. Not both. Only one. And I don't know which one it will be.

3. Smith's minutes - we'd love for him to only play 30 per, but I don't expect it. If our non-conference schedule was softer, then maybe the average could drop a bit because of only playing 24-26 in buy games.

4. Furst - I'd love it if he was a real contributor, but I'll believe it when I see it. I don't expect it.

 

[Boiler Buck]

I think we will see numerous different starting lineups this year, but here is what I would like to see Painter do with the minutes. Some are obvious, but Berg, Jacobson, Furst, Burgess are not easy calls. My thought is that none of these young bigs are good enough to justify taking heavy minutes away from our wings. I would rather see a 7 footer at the 5 situationally vs forcing it just because that's how it's we have played in recent history.

Berg and Jacobson are not currently at the level of a 3rd year Edey, Haas, or Hammons that all justified as many minutes as they could handle. Assuming they can rebound, this year's wing players appear to be too skilled and experienced to lose minutes to a 5 who isn't extremely productive on both ends.

Smith - 30 MPG, I don't want to see 40 minutes from Braden this year. We need him to stay fresh through the year, so a minute reduction would be smart if it doesn't cost us games.
Loyer - 25-30MPG, Same as Smith, but he is less important to play heavy minutes because of who is behind him
TKR - 30 MPG, We have enough frontcourt depth that he shouldn't have to go more than this
Harris- 20MPG, Maybe more depending on how he develops
Cox - 20MPG, Same as Harris

Heide - 20 MPG
Colvin - 20MPG
FURST - 15-20MPG, I think his experience and defensive abilities against smaller 5's are going to be highly valuable this year.
Berg - 5-10MPG, I can't see him being anything more than a situation player this year. Play him when there is a big 5 to body up with, but I'd rather see Furst or even Burgess or a small lineup with TKR at 5
Jacobson - 5-10 MPG, Same as Berg, but I'd force feed him some minutes instead of Berg just because he has more upside and is our 5 of the future.
Waddell 5MPG - Injury Insurance and mopup
Burgess - Redshirt, I think he will be a valuable contributor next year, but I don't see him taking enough minutes from Furst, Berg, or Jacobson to justify burning an entire year.

Furst. Was more optimistic before the Creighton game.

MIght be missing a guy.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

MIght be missing a guy.

Benter, but he will absolutely redshirt. Didn't play at Creighton.

 

[Boiler Buck]

If Berg isn't able to go @ the 5....

Perhaps our most talented lineup considering both sides of the ball might be........

TKR @ 5 and Heide @ 4
With the 5 guards rotating @ the 1-3 so we can run.

Might be a small lineup, but with quickness and rebounding guards, might work?

 

[proudopete]

Burgess was our best 5. I know he may redshirt but for me I would say we need him this year. The way he defended guards trying to drive in him was impressive.

 

[boilerzz]

I appreciate the conversation starter. But candidly, it's way too early to make some of the determinations people have made in this thread. That was the first time DJ, CJC, RB, and GH played against a crowd that size and against D1 opponents in a real game. I wouldn't expect them to have shown in that environment the same things they will show us in February. Some will improve. Some will fall off.

We likely won't have a good idea what the minutes distribution will be for several games.

 

[Ihaveswag29]

I appreciate the conversation starter. But candidly, it's way too early to make some of the determinations people have made in this thread. That was the first time DJ, CJC, RB, and GH played against a crowd that size and against D1 opponents in a real game. I wouldn't expect them to have shown in that environment the same things they will show us in February. Some will improve. Some will fall off.

We likely won't have a good idea what the minutes distribution will be for several games.

Potentially.. Duke did just beat Arizona state by 59 with almost all freshman, so there is precedent for expectations for good freshman..

 

[Dryfly88]

Rebounding is going to be the key for whoever plays the 5. We will miss Edey's rebounding more than his scoring this year.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

If Berg isn't able to go @ the 5....

Perhaps our most talented lineup considering both sides of the ball might be........

TKR @ 5 and Heide @ 4
With the 5 guards rotating @ the 1-3 so we can run.

Might be a small lineup, but with quickness and rebounding guards, might work?

I wonder the same thing. I’d be concerned about post defense and defensive rebounding, but I think it could really open things up offensively.

 

[boilerzz]

Potentially.. Duke did just beat Arizona state by 59 with almost all freshman, so there is precedent for expectations for good freshman..

I love our freshman class but candidly, there is a big difference between how ready a top 20 freshman is and how ready 100 freshman is more often than not.

 

[Old Gold n Black]

If Berg isn't able to go @ the 5....

Perhaps our most talented lineup considering both sides of the ball might be........

TKR @ 5 and Heide @ 4
With the 5 guards rotating @ the 1-3 so we can run.

Might be a small lineup, but with quickness and rebounding guards, might work?

Heide did get several minutes at the 4 against Creighton, and it didn't go so well. He was often out of position, and on one possession totally lost his man on the perimeter for a wide open 3. Did the same thing while playing wing in the second half. Really, really poor showing by Cam. Inexcusable.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Good post. Some thoughts.

1. I don't foresee different starting lineups during the course of the season. For the most part, CMP sticks with something. Now that doesn't mean more minutes could develop for certain players during the course of the season. Or a scenario where mid-season, someone like Heide emerges into the starting lineup, switching things up and putting TKR into the 5. But I don't think it's going to go back-and-forth and definitely won't be based on the opponent's lineup.

2. I think, while the early going won't show it, either Berg or Jacobsen will emerge as the primary 7-footer. Not both. Only one. And I don't know which one it will be.

3. Smith's minutes - we'd love for him to only play 30 per, but I don't expect it. If our non-conference schedule was softer, then maybe the average could drop a bit because of only playing 24-26 in buy games.

4. Furst - I'd love it if he was a real contributor, but I'll believe it when I see it. I don't expect it.

Here’s an Interesting post over the years with painter and lineups (to back your claims):

 

[POTFHBTFU]

No way does Braden go only 30 mpg he didn’t even do that freshman year. He was at 34 last year. Why rest him he’s pretty conditioned and with all the dang timeouts whats another 10%.

Doubtful Furst gets as many minutes as the 7 footers combined. He might even backup TKR. I think your minutes for Berg and Jacobsen are very low.

No offense to Waddell but I just don’t see him having a larger presence this year. Too much talent.

Painter is very transparent and was asked by this after the creighton game and after the scrimmage. He was unsure still but seemed to want to have a set 5 he can start each game and then will switch it up throughout the game. He also acknowledged he wanted to play Heide more at the 4 but was more focused on how the 5s played. Painter rarely changes the starting lineup based on matchup but will for sure change it up during the game.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Heide did get several minutes at the 4 against Creighton, and it didn't go so well. He was often out of position, and on one possession totally lost his man on the perimeter for a wide open 3. Did the same thing while playing wing in the second half. Really, really poor showing by Cam. Inexcusable.

Yes. Don't understand how Furst and Heide, experienced players, were both a step slow and out of position. Hopefully, first game....and things get better.

Still unless CMP goes 4 guards and TKR.......which would be kinda cool.....

Someone has to emerge @ the 4 or 5 and TKR takes the other spot. I think we are better with TKR @ the 5. But we will see.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Here’s an Interesting post over the years with painter and lineups (to back your claims):

View embedded media

What I found interesting is not since 2018 has the following year there not been a change in the starting lineup. Seems like every year someone drops off. This year all 3 returning starters are starting.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Yes. Don't understand how Furst and Heide, experienced players, were both a step slow and out of position. Hopefully, first game....and things get better.

Still unless CMP goes 4 guards and TKR.......which would be kinda cool.....

Someone has to emerge @ the 4 or 5 and TKR takes the other spot. I think we are better with TKR @ the 5. But we will see.

This would be neat and maybe a reason to redshirt burgess. Kinda like 2011 when we had Byrd, LewJack, etuann, and ryne smith out there. Bummer year as we could have won Big Ten wirh Hummel!

 

[proudopete]

None of us has seen the small ball lineup yet so the answers we seek may lie in that group. The rotations may work out easily if we see this group hit the ground running.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Here’s an Interesting post over the years with painter and lineups (to back your claims):

View embedded media

Hasn't he said that he only change the starting lineup after a loss? Not many opportunities the past few years. 😁

 

[GeistBoiler]

I think we will see numerous different starting lineups this year, but here is what I would like to see Painter do with the minutes. Some are obvious, but Berg, Jacobson, Furst, Burgess are not easy calls. My thought is that none of these young bigs are good enough to justify taking heavy minutes away from our wings. I would rather see a 7 footer at the 5 situationally vs forcing it just because that's how it's we have played in recent history.

Berg and Jacobson are not currently at the level of a 3rd year Edey, Haas, or Hammons that all justified as many minutes as they could handle. Assuming they can rebound, this year's wing players appear to be too skilled and experienced to lose minutes to a 5 who isn't extremely productive on both ends.

Smith - 30 MPG, I don't want to see 40 minutes from Braden this year. We need him to stay fresh through the year, so a minute reduction would be smart if it doesn't cost us games.
Loyer - 25-30MPG, Same as Smith, but he is less important to play heavy minutes because of who is behind him
TKR - 30 MPG, We have enough frontcourt depth that he shouldn't have to go more than this
Harris- 20MPG, Maybe more depending on how he develops
Cox - 20MPG, Same as Harris

Heide - 20 MPG
Colvin - 20MPG
FURST - 15-20MPG, I think his experience and defensive abilities against smaller 5's are going to be highly valuable this year.
Berg - 5-10MPG, I can't see him being anything more than a situation player this year. Play him when there is a big 5 to body up with, but I'd rather see Furst or even Burgess or a small lineup with TKR at 5
Jacobson - 5-10 MPG, Same as Berg, but I'd force feed him some minutes instead of Berg just because he has more upside and is our 5 of the future.
Waddell 5MPG - Injury Insurance and mopup
Burgess - Redshirt, I think he will be a valuable contributor next year, but I don't see him taking enough minutes from Furst, Berg, or Jacobson to justify burning an entire year.

After watching the Grand Valley State game in person, my thoughts on this are mostly unchanged. Harris/Cox/Colvin have to see 20 minutes each in order for this team to maximize its potential. Heide needs to show more improvement, but I could also see him warranting more minutes depending on his ability to guard and rebound against bigger players in a small ball lineup.

I would be shocked if Burgess didn't redshirt. He has great upside, but too often seems lost and is pretty poorly conditioned, which is typical of most Freshman coming off an injury. If he doesn't redshirt, I would say it says more about Painter's lack of confidence in Berg/Furst than Burgess's readiness.

Between Berg, Jacobson, and Furst, I don't think it matters who anyone likes more than the others. Each has some ability and will need to contribute in one way or another, but each has limitations in their game right now that prevent them from being a focal point in any capacity. They are the always important role players. Outside of individual matchup situations (i.e. a big 5 like Ballo for IU, where Berg will surely be needed to defend), I don't see how you could prioritize any of these 3 over giving more minutes to Cox, Harris, Colvin, and maybe even Heide.

After seeing how good the 2 Freshman guards are and and how electric Colvin can be when given the opportunity, this team screams small ball to me. I would love to see a lineup for 15 minutes a game that includes Smith, Colvin, Harris, Heide, and TKR. Each of these players has rebounding/defending ability bigger than their height and would create mismatches in both the transition and the 1/2 court. Just my 2 cents.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

If there is any position where a committee approach can work well, it is the 5. I have seen the approach of rotating in bigs and having them give max effort for shorter durations work well for some high level teams. It is difficult for many bigs to get up and down the court, baseline to baseline while playing physically in the post, guarding ball screens, rebounding, etc.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I would be shocked if Burgess didn't redshirt. He has great upside, but too often seems lost and is pretty poorly conditioned, which is typical of most Freshman coming off an injury. If he doesn't redshirt, I would say it says more about Painter's lack of confidence in Berg/Furst than Burgess's readiness.

I think Painter has already made up his mind about redshirting Burgess or not, and that he isn't going to. I think the indication is that he played against Creighton, while Benter and the walk-ons did not. Last night was different being at home, so he wanted everyone to get in, especially since it was a blowout. If the box score is doing these things right, it looks like he was the 2nd guy off the bench last night as well.

It's an interesting take considering 90% of the opinions about Burgess so far have been quite positive. I haven't watched anything other than highlight reels, so hard for me to comment on his play.