Interesting read on the basketball arms race

[boilerzz]

The $10 million club: College basketball's portal recruiting hits unthinkable levels of financial chaos

The price of talent is spiking to record amounts -- again -- now with hundreds of millions at stake in college hoops' unregulated economy

www.cbssports.com

Here is the question most don't want to answer though. If Boosters are willing to pony up $10MM this year to get players, and there are no guardrails on those boosters next year and beyond (not sure how their can be without the NCAA getting sued again), then doesn't it just mean that the pot for players will go up by $20.5MM with schools start paying, rather than the House Fund essentially replacing the wild wild west we currently operate in?

 

[Tommaker]

doesn't it just mean that the pot for players will go up by $20.5MM with schools start paying, rather than the House Fund essentially replacing the wild wild west we currently operate in?

yes.

 

[Dryfly88]

Yes, until there are collectively bargained contracts it will be the wild west. We are probably a few years (maybe more) from that happening, but until it does, this will only get crazier.

 

[Middawg]

The conundrum I see that hasn't gotten much conversation.


People say the annual school media rights revenue is mostly due to CFB.


Speculation the top 6 or so spenders in football, including Ohio St., were at a 20 million dollar or so NIL payroll last season.

That averages out to 250k per player average on a CFB team.


Now it's speculated, 10-15 schools will spend 10 million plus on a bball team.

That averages to around 800k or so a player.

So bball players on "top teams" are on average getting paid 3 times their big revenue generating CFB counterparts?

Seems possible CFB will be making a big jump to 30-40 million dollar top spender team payrolls very quickly, possibly in the fall?

Now that's wild.

 

[Boiler Buck]

The $10 million club: College basketball's portal recruiting hits unthinkable levels of financial chaos

The price of talent is spiking to record amounts -- again -- now with hundreds of millions at stake in college hoops' unregulated economy

www.cbssports.com

Here is the question most don't want to answer though. If Boosters are willing to pony up $10MM this year to get players, and there are no guardrails on those boosters next year and beyond (not sure how their can be without the NCAA getting sued again), then doesn't it just mean that the pot for players will go up by $20.5MM with schools start paying, rather than the House Fund essentially replacing the wild wild west we currently operate in?

Will get interesting as Corporate starts to pick a small pool of winners and finance accordingly....adding to the pots for the "selected" few. Trouble with that it leaves losers on sidelines.

 

[Tommaker]

I see the day when mids and smaller schools make deals with larger schools as "feeder" or training academies. Sign and develop a player for 3 years, have them portal to the larger school when they are good sized, well trained seniors. The mids get some $$$ and some decent players for a few years.

 

[qazplm]

Well right now we are benefiting from it pretty well in basketball.

Now football, I don't know what we are spending but doesn't seem so far to be as successful as basketball albeit you do need way less money to be successful in basketball.

Eventually this will even out. Basic capitalism, if not enough teams can afford high payouts then the number of high payouts will decrease and an equilibrium will form.

 

[BoilerAndy]

I see the day when mids and smaller schools make deals with larger schools as "feeder" or training academies. Sign and develop a player for 3 years, have them portal to the larger school when they are good sized, well trained seniors. The mids get some $$$ and some decent players for a few years.

I'm wondering when we will start seeing P5 teams trading players.

 

[Wolegib]

I'm wondering when we will start seeing P5 teams trading players.

if a player is good , he's not going to stay in college for 3-4 years. that requires taking classes. a more logical scenario is the developmental leagues will start getting better sponsorship and also making deals with Nba clubs. I could see the NBA becoming like MLB and drafting players out of high school, and then sending them to developmental teams or allowing them to go to college, and then reentering the draft.

 

[BoilerAndy]

if a player is good , he's not going to stay in college for 3-4 years. that requires taking classes. a more logical scenario is the developmental leagues will start getting better sponsorship and also making deals with Nba clubs. I could see the NBA becoming like MLB and drafting players out of high school, and then sending them to developmental teams or allowing them to go to college, and then reentering the draft.

That has absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

if a player is good , he's not going to stay in college for 3-4 years. that requires taking classes. a more logical scenario is the developmental leagues will start getting better sponsorship and also making deals with Nba clubs. I could see the NBA becoming like MLB and drafting players out of high school, and then sending them to developmental teams or allowing them to go to college, and then reentering the draft.

Do you mean good as in good enough for the NBA? Cuz lots of players that are “good” are staying In college 3-4 years. Hell, some are even 5+

 

[qazplm]

Do you mean good as in good enough for the NBA? Cuz lots of players that are “good” are staying In college 3-4 years. Hell, some are even 5+

I mean one does wonder why the NBA doesn't have a more robust minor league system. NFL I understand. There's much more of a ticking clock btw old enough to be able to man up with real men and too old to play at all, especially for running backs.

But NBA could have a more robust minor league system instead of just using colleges for it.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Do you mean good as in good enough for the NBA? Cuz lots of players that are “good” are staying In college 3-4 years. Hell, some are even 5+

No kidding. College is more lucrative than ever.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Do you mean good as in good enough for the NBA? Cuz lots of players that are “good” are staying In college 3-4 years. Hell, some are even 5+

Yeah, Zach wasn't good. He was just tall.

With NIL, many good players can stay in school making millions, guaranteed.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I see the day when mids and smaller schools make deals with larger schools as "feeder" or training academies. Sign and develop a player for 3 years, have them portal to the larger school when they are good sized, well trained seniors. The mids get some $$$ and some decent players for a few years.

I posted the exact same thing over a month ago. Great minds my friend.

 

[Dryfly88]

I mean one does wonder why the NBA doesn't have a more robust minor league system. NFL I understand. There's much more of a ticking clock btw old enough to be able to man up with real men and too old to play at all, especially for running backs.

But NBA could have a more robust minor league system instead of just using colleges for it.

The NBA currently has a free system for them to get players. Why would they invest money in a feeder system when they have one now for free?

 

[Tommaker]

The NBA currently has a free system for them to get players. Why would they invest money in a feeder system when they have one now for free?

Yeah, but how many of those WNBA players actually see time with an NBA team?

 

[Wolegib]

My thoughts are people like the balls will start creating their own minor leagues. Much like football and all the various leagues they have outside college. You’ve seen in the past two drafts the nba likes foreign and developmental players more than college players. So if you want to go to the nba you may be more inclined to go the developmental route. And contrary to popular belief not every college basketball player is receiving $500,000.

You ask why would the nba create a minor league system when they have college basketball for free? The answer is greed. I imagine every nba GM would love to have the draft rights to the player going to byu. Under my proposal an nba team could draft him and then stash him somewhere until he’s ready to play. Isn’t that what the lakers did with Bronny? It’s not like he really played any significant time at usc.

As for the minor leagues and developmental leagues, look at the Savanah bananas. I don’t any of you heard of them 4 years ago. The minor leagues are starting to generate a lot of money.

The talk about nil is exaggerated. The big nil contracts are from sources outside of the schools. The last time I looked Nike is not a division 1 university

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Well right now we are benefiting from it pretty well in basketball.

Now football, I don't know what we are spending but doesn't seem so far to be as successful as basketball albeit you do need way less money to be successful in basketball.

Eventually this will even out. Basic capitalism, if not enough teams can afford high payouts then the number of high payouts will decrease and an equilibrium will form.

If Purdue football or basketball starts to turn over the majority of its starters every year, I’m out.

I don’t watch minor League sports.

 

[qazplm]

The NBA currently has a free system for them to get players. Why would they invest money in a feeder system when they have one now for free?

I'd say bc that feeder system is becoming a bit unstable and is actually encouraging players to stay in college longer which may not be in the NBA's benefit. I'd also argue there's value long term to an NBA run product that makes professional basketball have a wider based appeal. Mid level teams in smaller markets could help expand interest in the main product.

 

[qazplm]

If Purdue football or basketball starts to turn over the majority of its starters every year, I’m out.

I don’t watch minor League sports.

Well we lose 5-6 players after next season. I'm pretty sure we aren't replacing them with just high school kids.

 

[Dryfly88]

My thoughts are people like the balls will start creating their own minor leagues. Much like football and all the various leagues they have outside college. You’ve seen in the past two drafts the nba likes foreign and developmental players more than college players. So if you want to go to the nba you may be more inclined to go the developmental route. And contrary to popular belief not every college basketball player is receiving $500,000.

You ask why would the nba create a minor league system when they have college basketball for free? The answer is greed. I imagine every nba GM would love to have the draft rights to the player going to byu. Under my proposal an nba team could draft him and then stash him somewhere until he’s ready to play. Isn’t that what the lakers did with Bronny? It’s not like he really played any significant time at usc.

As for the minor leagues and developmental leagues, look at the Savanah bananas. I don’t any of you heard of them 4 years ago. The minor leagues are starting to generate a lot of money.

The talk about nil is exaggerated. The big nil contracts are from sources outside of the schools. The last time I looked Nike is not a division 1 university

Nobody else wanted Bronny James. Probably not a good example to use for what you're trying to say.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Well we lose 5-6 players after next season. I'm pretty sure we aren't replacing them with just high school kids.

Reread my post …specifically the MAJORITY, STARTERS, and EVERY YEAR portions…

 

[qazplm]

Reread my post …specifically the MAJORITY, STARTERS, and EVERY YEAR portions…

Loyer starter, TKR starter, Smith starter, Cluff likely starter, I mean that's 4/5. If Mayer starts then goes pro that's 5/5. Plus Murphy so that's 6 assuming no portal entries next year.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Loyer starter, TKR starter, Smith starter, Cluff likely starter, I mean that's 4/5. If Mayer starts then goes pro that's 5/5. Plus Murphy so that's 6 assuming no portal entries next year.

Reread the “EVERY YEAR” part one more time…

 

[qazplm]

Reread the “EVERY YEAR” part one more time…

Lol what do you think happens if we pick up another 2-3 seniors next season and they are also starters?

The days of primarily rolling with high school recruits are fading.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

The days of primarily rolling with high school recruits are fading.

Not for Purdue, yet.

 

[qazplm]

Not for Purdue, yet.

Not for Purdue, yet.

Yes for Purdue too. Time to start focusing more on the name on the front instead of the back.

 

[oldboiler52]

No kidding. College is more lucrative than ever.

Kids have to take a pay cut to play Euro league explains why they want an extra year like Luke

 

[oldboiler52]

Not for Purdue, yet.

IMO, we have narrowed who we recruit. Less than half the profile of years past.

 

[Tommaker]

IMO, we have narrowed who we recruit. Less than half the profile of years past.

That may also be a result of

1. Painter has figured out exactly who he wants to offer
2. More often than not, he's getting the guys he wants.

 

[boilernuke]

The $10 million club: College basketball's portal recruiting hits unthinkable levels of financial chaos

The price of talent is spiking to record amounts -- again -- now with hundreds of millions at stake in college hoops' unregulated economy

www.cbssports.com

Here is the question most don't want to answer though. If Boosters are willing to pony up $10MM this year to get players, and there are no guardrails on those boosters next year and beyond (not sure how their can be without the NCAA getting sued again), then doesn't it just mean that the pot for players will go up by $20.5MM with schools start paying, rather than the House Fund essentially replacing the wild wild west we currently operate in?

Norlander lists what he estimates as the potential top ten spenders on rosters. Which teams do you think of this list will actually finish top ten next year?

• Arkansas
• BYU
• Duke
• Indiana
• Kentucky
• Louisville
• Michigan
• North Carolina
• St. John's
• Texas Tech

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Norlander lists what he estimates as the potential top ten spenders on rosters. Which teams do you think of this list will actually finish top ten next year?

• Arkansas
• BYU
• Duke
• Indiana
• Kentucky
• Louisville
• Michigan
• North Carolina
• St. John's
• Texas Tech

Top 10?

As of right now:

Tech
Duke
Louisville


Maybe UK

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

My thoughts are people like the balls will start creating their own minor leagues.

No one will watch.

Much like football and all the various leagues they have outside college. You’ve seen in the past two drafts the nba likes foreign and developmental players more than college players.

2024: first round - 2 “developmental players”& 4 foreign players. The other 24 were college
2023: 3”developmental players”& 2 foreign players. The other 25 were college.

So I’m not math major but 49 > 11, right? So it seems you are completely wrong. Check my math though.

So if you want to go to the nba you may be more inclined to go the developmental route. And contrary to popular belief not every college basketball player is receiving $500,000.

No, but the good ones do and if they are good and aren’t getting paid that, they will get paid that after a good season.

You ask why would the nba create a minor league system when they have college basketball for free? The answer is greed.

They have the G-League now. It’s exactly what you just described.

I imagine every nba GM would love to have the draft rights to the player going to byu. Under my proposal an nba team could draft him and then stash him somewhere until he’s ready to play.

Or the players union could get rid of the dumb 1 year removed from HS clause and allow players that are ready to play in the nba actually play in the nba.

But let’s talk about your proposal…What player would want to be “stashed” that is ready to play right away (or thinks they are)? I don’t think your proposal would work.

Isn’t that what the lakers did with Bronny? It’s not like he really played any significant time at usc.

No. LeBron forced the lakers to draft his son.

As for the minor leagues and developmental leagues, look at the Savanah bananas. I don’t any of you heard of them 4 years ago. The minor leagues are starting to generate a lot of money.

The Savannah bananas are like the Harlem globetrotters. They are not a real team, Wolegib. They exist for pure entertainment and they don’t play real teams.

The talk about nil is exaggerated. The big nil contracts are from sources outside of the schools. The last time I looked Nike is not a division 1 university

You are still vey confused on how NIL works.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Lol what do you think happens if we pick up another 2-3 seniors next season and they are also starters?

The days of primarily rolling with high school recruits are fading.

Painter doesn't agree. He has repeatedly said the opposite. Next year, only 2 players will be transfers, which is the mosthe hasever had.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Yes for Purdue too. Time to start focusing more on the name on the front instead of the back.

Wrong.

 

[northside100]

Reread the “EVERY YEAR” part one more time…

Completely agree. MP and staff have been through this before, but it's been a while. We were fortunate to have Carsen and Cline the year after Vince, DM, PJ and Haas graduated. Not as fortunate the following year as Haarms and Eastern weren't able to fill the gap.

Next year's team will again be built primarily on talent that's come up through the program with guys like Cox, Harris, Meyer, and DJ coming back after playing major roles and RB, West and Benter getting an opportunity to log major minutes. I'm sure that the staff will supplement with portal support but I'd be surprised to see them bring in a bunch of seniors. I'd expect to see them use '26/'27 as a reloading and development year, building towards another real run in '27/'28.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Completely agree. MP and staff have been through this before, but it's been a while. We were fortunate to have Carsen and Cline the year after Vince, DM, PJ and Haas graduated. Not as fortunate the following year as Haarms and Eastern weren't able to fill the gap.

Next year's team will again be built primarily on talent that's come up through the program with guys like Cox, Harris, Meyer, and DJ coming back after playing major roles and RB, West and Benter getting an opportunity to log major minutes. I'm sure that the staff will supplement with portal support but I'd be surprised to see them bring in a bunch of seniors. I'd expect to see them use '26/'27 as a reloading and development year, building towards another real run in '27/'28.

Yep. Not anti-portal at all, but if the majority of the roster is turning over every year, I will lose interest, like I have already with football.

For example, I can’t name 5 football players off the top of my head…. there was a time when I could have told you 35-40 of the 44 players in our two-deeps… I’ll give Odom a shot but if the trend of our best players leaving continues, I’ll be completely out.

 

[Dryfly88]

Yep. Not anti-portal at all, but if the majority of the roster is turning over every year, I will lose interest, like I have already with football.

For example, I can’t name 5 football players off the top of my head…. there was a time when I could have told you 35-40 of the 44 players in our two-deeps… I’ll give Odom a shot but if the trend of our best players leaving continues, I’ll be completely out.

I think CMP will do his best to not have huge turnover in any given year. But frankly, there is only so much he can do about it. I'm afraid there will be years where that number will be large, or it could go the other way, and the number is small, but the quality of the team is down. Fans won't like that either. I'm hopeful he can balance it, but I'm sticking with it either way. College hoops is the only sport I'm crazy about. I'm not willing to give it up. I see your position and know that you are not alone in that position, many feel the same way you do.

 

[northside100]

I think CMP will do his best to not have huge turnover in any given year. But frankly, there is only so much he can do about it. I'm afraid there will be years where that number will be large, or it could go the other way, and the number is small, but the quality of the team is down. Fans won't like that either. I'm hopeful he can balance it, but I'm sticking with it either way. College hoops is the only sport I'm crazy about. I'm not willing to give it up. I see your position and know that you are not alone in that position, many feel the same way you do.

Certainly, some of this is outside of MP's control, but I think there's a lot he can do and has done to influence the retention of his key players. Guys like Myles and Cam are always going to be a risk, but I think (hope?) Painter will continue to keep most of his top priority guys, both current top contributors and key young guys.