Get ready for more conference realignment in six months

[Quix0te]

Here is a prediction from Dennis Dodd, a reliable source who usually cites insider info rather than grapevine rumors:

• Dennis Dodd: In February, ESPN will exercise its option not to extend the ACC contract beyond 2027. Florida State -- having played the long game -- will have its out and be able to put itself on the market. FSU will do so at a much reduced rate to get out of the grant of rights since it will only have three years to run. Don't ask me where FSU goes, but if it is as free agent beginning in 2028, there will be Power Four interest. Basically, the next round of major realignment begins less than a month after the 2025 championship game. Buckle up.

 

[pboiler18]

Here is a prediction from Dennis Dodd, a reliable source who usually cites insider info rather than grapevine rumors:

• Dennis Dodd: In February, ESPN will exercise its option not to extend the ACC contract beyond 2027. Florida State -- having played the long game -- will have its out and be able to put itself on the market. FSU will do so at a much reduced rate to get out of the grant of rights since it will only have three years to run. Don't ask me where FSU goes, but if it is as free agent beginning in 2028, there will be Power Four interest. Basically, the next round of major realignment begins less than a month after the 2025 championship game. Buckle up.

Always thought the ACC was where Oregon St and Wash St would end up.

I think you see FSU, Clemson, UNC and maybe one of Georgia Tech or Virginia end up in other conferences. I think the BIg takes FSU and GT. UNC and Clemson to the SEC.

Then ACC scrambles to pick up 4 more to keep up. At the end of the day the BIG12 and ACC end up pretty much devoid of powerhouses on football and you see a gravitation towards the big 2

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Always thought the ACC was where Oregon St and Wash St would end up.

I think you see FSU, Clemson, UNC and maybe one of Georgia Tech or Virginia end up in other conferences. I think the BIg takes FSU and GT. UNC and Clemson to the SEC.

Then ACC scrambles to pick up 4 more to keep up. At the end of the day the BIG12 and ACC end up pretty much devoid of powerhouses on football and you see a gravitation towards the big 2

There is a lot of buzz around the Big 12 picking up some of the remnants of the acc, which without a tv contract could go the way of the PAC.
Oregon state and Washington state are likely looking MWC or WAC.
Haven’t heard GT since around the time we picked up Maryland and Rutgers.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Just doing some quick math looks like leaving after this season with ending of contract would be $143m +/- unless there are other media contracts that extend beyond. Big ten if they get a full share would be about $40m more per year so with less than a 4 year payoff and surely some donor money should be a no brainer.

 

[Quix0te]

My hunch is that ESPN is backing away from extending the ACC TV contract because they don't want to be accused of keeping FSU and Clemson 'trapped' in a conference that they want to leave. The irony in this is that the ACC TV package will be worth even less if the two top brands depart. The ESPN payouts to the remaining ACC schools may go from chump change to peanuts.

 

[Wolegib]

Having lived in Florida for 5 years, FSU has a huge rivalry with Florida. If they are set free and the ACC falls apart, I could see FSU wanting to join the SEC. I could also see Miami and Clemson joining the SEC.

The Big ten would end up with Duke, UNC, ND and Virginia or NC st

 

[Riveting]

Having lived in Florida for 5 years, FSU has a huge rivalry with Florida. If they are set free and the ACC falls apart, I could see FSU wanting to join the SEC. I could also see Miami and Clemson joining the SEC.

The Big ten would end up with Duke, UNC, ND and Virginia or NC st

Forget Dook. Think outside the box - that is, about how much money the 'King' Saud University Fighting Camelhumpers could bring the BTN.

After all, The KSU at #10 was rated just below Purdue in a survey of world universities someone posted on this forum. BTN must move quickly before the SEC snaps them up.

 

[Tommaker]

Forget Dook. Think outside the box - that is, about how much money the 'King' Saud University Fighting Camelhumpers could bring the BTN.

After all, The KSU at #10 was rated just below Purdue in a survey of world universities someone posted on this forum. BTN must move quickly before the SEC snaps them up.

If anybody can buy a championship team, it would be them! And they could fly all of the other teams to SA gratis on their airline!

 

[Wolegib]

At one time I thought the Big 10 would add teams in their geographic area. It seemed logical. Then I thought they would add teams based on their academic excellence.

But now I realize how the Big10 will select their future members! It’s now all about money and market share.

Rather than seeking additional midwestern teams like Kentucky or Kansas or Missouri, we added media darling USC.

If we had stuck to our past standards, Stanford should have been our top target. But despite their success in academics and non revenue sports, They just didn’t bring money and market share to the big 10 network!

In the past it has been said no SEC team would ever leave the SEC to join the Big10. But today, who knows? It’s no longer about conferences or geography or academics. It’s about money.

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

Eventually, it will be the SEC and BT as the top 2 conferences, which they already are. They will just be bigger and stronger.
Big 12 will round out the top 3 and everyone else will be a very distant 4th, 5th, etc.

 

[Quix0te]

Eventually, it will be the SEC and BT as the top 2 conferences, which they already are. They will just be bigger and stronger.
Big 12 will round out the top 3 and everyone else will be a very distant 4th, 5th, etc.

12-team playoff projection from The Athletic. Seems bad for the Big Ten, five SEC teams and only three from the B1G. However no conference other than the B1G or the SEC got more than one team in. That will probably happen this year.

8 Ole Miss \
--------------->>>>1 Ohio St
9 Bama /

5 Texas \
----------------->>>> 4 Clemson
12 Memphis /

7 Notre Dame \
------------------>>>> 2 Georgia
10 Penn St /

6 Oregon \
-------------->>>> 3 Utah
11 Mizzou /

 

[Riveting]

12-team playoff projection from The Athletic. Seems bad for the Big Ten, five SEC teams and only three from the B1G. However no conference other than the B1G or the SEC got more than one team in. That will probably happen this year.

8 Ole Miss \
--------------->>>>1 Ohio St
9 Bama /

5 Texas \
----------------->>>> 4 Clemson
12 Memphis /

7 Notre Dame \
------------------>>>> 2 Georgia
10 Penn St /

6 Oregon \
-------------->>>> 3 Utah
11 Mizzou /

The absurd new playoff structure is a disadvantage to the top seeds, who will already have been off more than a month when they face a team that has momentum and sharpness from playing a game.

It is no advantage to get an extra week of rest when every team has had a month off before the first round.

 

[pboiler18]

The absurd new playoff structure is a disadvantage to the top seeds, who will already have been off more than a month when they face a team that has momentum and sharpness from playing a game.

It is no advantage to get an extra week of rest when every team has had a month off before the first round.

It won’t be a month because to get a bye you’ll need to win your conference championship game.

What it does though is honestly devalue those championship games.

In some situations you’re going to have teams who are better off being 10-2 and a 5-8 seed hosting a home game vs going to the conference championship game, catching a potential 3rd loss that puts you out of a home first round game and even potentially out of the playoff.

Wether you play the conference championship or an extra playoff game- in that situation you are playing at least another game anyways with the potential to lose and the outcome is either your season is over or you earn a road game in the playoff. Tough scenario.

 

[Riveting]

It won’t be a month because to get a bye you’ll need to win your conference championship game.

What it does though is honestly devalue those championship games.

In some situations you’re going to have teams who are better off being 10-2 and a 5-8 seed hosting a home game vs going to the conference championship game, catching a potential 3rd loss that puts you out of a home first round game and even potentially out of the playoff.

Wether you play the conference championship or an extra playoff game- in that situation you are playing at least another game anyways with the potential to lose and the outcome is either your season is over or you earn a road game in the playoff. Tough scenario.

Good thought. For the first rounders is will be 3-4 weeks, depending on the calendar in a given year. But that is plenty of rest, and an extra week is even more than plenty for the bye teams.

I didn't realize any team played at home in this new scheme. I am surprised by that.

 

[Quix0te]

It won’t be a month because to get a bye you’ll need to win your conference championship game.

Right, and here's the thing that many fans don't realize: While the four top conference champs play only three more games to win the NC, the CCG loser is playing FIVE games after the regular season to get to the NC. So the runner-up in the Big Ten and SEC, say Oregon and Bama, will NOT get a bye and they'll be looking at four more games to win the NC.

 

[msfboiler3]

Having lived in Florida for 5 years, FSU has a huge rivalry with Florida. If they are set free and the ACC falls apart, I could see FSU wanting to join the SEC. I could also see Miami and Clemson joining the SEC.

The Big ten would end up with Duke, UNC, ND and Virginia or NC st

I don't think the sec wants either fsu or clemson as they already have presence in those states and sc is small....not a huge benefit from a TV deal standpoint. Currently neither are meeting the academic accreditation needed for b10 either. Supposedly fsu is working on it. They may have severly overplayed their hand and unc might be the most sought after of any acc university imo.

 

[pboiler18]

Right, and here's the thing that many fans don't realize: While the four top conference champs play only three more games to win the NC, the CCG loser is playing FIVE games after the regular season to get to the NC. So the runner-up in the Big Ten and SEC, say Oregon and Bama, will NOT get a bye and they'll be looking at four more games to win the NC.

And if the conference championship game loser grabs a 3rd loss, they are likely out of the 12 altogether.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Having lived in Florida for 5 years, FSU has a huge rivalry with Florida. If they are set free and the ACC falls apart, I could see FSU wanting to join the SEC. I could also see Miami and Clemson joining the SEC.

The Big ten would end up with Duke, UNC, ND and Virginia or NC st

That rivalry has actually been reported to be a wedge and reason FSU likely won’t join the sec, lol. I doubt the big ten expands with those teams unless they agree to a significant discount initially.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

At one time I thought the Big 10 would add teams in their geographic area. It seemed logical. Then I thought they would add teams based on their academic excellence.

But now I realize how the Big10 will select their future members! It’s now all about money and market share.

Rather than seeking additional midwestern teams like Kentucky or Kansas or Missouri, we added media darling USC.

If we had stuck to our past standards, Stanford should have been our top target. But despite their success in academics and non revenue sports, They just didn’t bring money and market share to the big 10 network!

In the past it has been said no SEC team would ever leave the SEC to join the Big10. But today, who knows? It’s no longer about conferences or geography or academics. It’s about money.

The big ten is an athletic conference not an academic conference. Usc takes the big ten to another level, and even then are still part of AAU and a good academic institution. It’s not just money.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

First domino to fall this year, UConn likely joining the big 12. Doubtful they only add 1… Clearly basketball is a priority and lots of buzz of a chunk of acc joining if it starts to unravel. I can see Duke and UNC joining.

 

[Quix0te]

First domino to fall this year, UConn likely joining the big 12. Doubtful they only add 1… Clearly basketball is a priority and lots of buzz of a chunk of acc joining if it starts to unravel. I can see Duke and UNC joining.

If UConn is in the Big XII then the Huskies are not available to backfill the ACC.

 

[Quix0te]

To gauge the impact of FSU, Clemson anbd Miami leaving the ACC, here is a stunning statistic:

"Without Florida State, Clemson, and Miami the ACC would have averaged fewer television viewers than the American Athletic Conference from 2014-2021. The ACC's current television deal is worth $30 million a year per school while the American Athletic Conference's current TV deal is worth $7 million a year per school."

https://www.tomahawknation.com/2024...State, Clemson, and,million a year per school.

 

[Tommaker]

Forget Dook. Think outside the box - that is, about how much money the 'King' Saud University Fighting Camelhumpers could bring the BTN.

After all, The KSU at #10 was rated just below Purdue in a survey of world universities someone posted on this forum. BTN must move quickly before the SEC snaps them up.

I'm assuming you'd already seen this? If not, you need to buy some lotto tickets.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

To gauge the impact of FSU, Clemson anbd Miami leaving the ACC, here is a stunning statistic:

"Without Florida State, Clemson, and Miami the ACC would have averaged fewer television viewers than the American Athletic Conference from 2014-2021. The ACC's current television deal is worth $30 million a year per school while the American Athletic Conference's current TV deal is worth $7 million a year per school."

https://www.tomahawknation.com/2024...State, Clemson, and,million a year per school.

It’s a chicken and egg thing then. With those teams threatening to leave does ESPN opt out or do they stay in and essentially force those teams to stay? They lost the big ten but with their sec they may not care and forcing acc implosion could be good for them.

 

[msfboiler3]

It’s a chicken and egg thing then. With those teams threatening to leave does ESPN opt out or do they stay in and essentially force those teams to stay? They lost the big ten but with their sec they may not care and forcing acc implosion could be good for them.

ACC just made one mistake after another. It's almost unbelievable they are in this situation. They desperately need to find ways to generate cash. What's really interesting to me is that fsu and clemson are really pushing this thing but probably wouldn't be the most attractive options for either the sec or big ten. Unc is probably the gem for either then it kind of falls off based on the big 10s and sec criteria (geographical benefit aau accreditation etc) for the big ten I could see virginia, georgia tech, miami all being more sought after than clemson or fsu.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

ACC just made one mistake after another. It's almost unbelievable they are in this situation. They desperately need to find ways to generate cash. What's really interesting to me is that fsu and clemson are really pushing this thing but probably wouldn't be the most attractive options for either the sec or big ten. Unc is probably the gem for either then it kind of falls off based on the big 10s and sec criteria (geographical benefit aau accreditation etc) for the big ten I could see virginia, georgia tech, miami all being more sought after than clemson or fsu.

Maybe in basketball but I’m taking a hard pass on UNC in the B1G. If your fox/cbs/nbc I don’t think any game with UNC is more attractive than Purdue or Illinois. And number of subscribers to peacock and BTN for football would be very low. The per tr distribution would be diluted. FSU would be huge. Lots of marquee matchups. Anytime they play Michigan, Penn state, Ohio state, usc, Oregon it could be a game of the week. When we need 3-4 marquee matchups each week we need teams like fsu not unc.

With UConn expected to go B12, my bold prediction is UNC, Virginia, and Duke go there too once acc implodes. They will be a basketball super conference with Kansas, UConn, duke, and unc. ESPN has to like that with their hard-on for east coast basketball and could be motivation to opt out of ACC. Houston, Virginia, Baylor, and Arizona bring that second tier which Virginia and Arizona would likely take offense that they are second tier. I think B1G knows for them to keep relevance they may need to focus on basketball at this point like the Big East did long ago.

 

[Riveting]

ACC just made one mistake after another. It's almost unbelievable they are in this situation. They desperately need to find ways to generate cash. What's really interesting to me is that fsu and clemson are really pushing this thing but probably wouldn't be the most attractive options for either the sec or big ten. Unc is probably the gem for either then it kind of falls off based on the big 10s and sec criteria (geographical benefit aau accreditation etc) for the big ten I could see virginia, georgia tech, miami all being more sought after than clemson or fsu.

I haven't followed it. What mistakes did the ACC make ?

 

[POTFHBTFU]

I haven't followed it. What mistakes did the ACC make ?

I’m not sure I could name some mistakes but will point out what is listed in the lawsuit. In fact I would say the acc was almost remarkable in keeping themselves in tact at this point by having everyone sign off on a grant of rights and would also argue their revenue for each team is pretty solid. They are well positioned to protect something that would have under normal circumstances fallen apart like the PAC.

It’s hard to pick them apart. There’s the issue the conference commissioner is a direct financial benefitter of the deal they are on pointing out horrible optics and suggestion of scandalous circumstances.

FSU points out they have mismanaged the TV contract but I’m not sure that is entirely true. They certainly did better than the PAC and what used to be the Big East.

 

[Quix0te]

I’m not sure I could name some mistakes but will point out what is listed in the lawsuit.

I don't think it's mentioned in the lawsuit but signing a Grant of Rights for SIXTEEN (16!) YEARS has proven to be the worst blunder. Heck, ten years is far too long given the dynamics of conference realignment and TV deals nowadays. The ACC probably could have gotten the same deal if the GOR was only five or six years.

 

[Riveting]

I don't think it's mentioned in the lawsuit but signing a Grant of Rights for SIXTEEN (16!) YEARS has proven to be the worst blunder. Heck, ten years is far too long given the dynamics of conference realignment and TV deals nowadays. The ACC probably could have gotten the same deal if the GOR was only five or six years.

Does sound really dumb. Did they do that to lock all the schools in?

If so, did FSU and Clemintine object at that time?

 

[msfboiler3]

Maybe in basketball but I’m taking a hard pass on UNC in the B1G. If your fox/cbs/nbc I don’t think any game with UNC is more attractive than Purdue or Illinois. And number of subscribers to peacock and BTN for football would be very low. The per tr distribution would be diluted. FSU would be huge. Lots of marquee matchups. Anytime they play Michigan, Penn state, Ohio state, usc, Oregon it could be a game of the week. When we need 3-4 marquee matchups each week we need teams like fsu not unc.

With UConn expected to go B12, my bold prediction is UNC, Virginia, and Duke go there too once acc implodes. They will be a basketball super conference with Kansas, UConn, duke, and unc. ESPN has to like that with their hard-on for east coast basketball and could be motivation to opt out of ACC. Houston, Virginia, Baylor, and Arizona bring that second tier which Virginia and Arizona would likely take offense that they are second tier. I think B1G knows for them to keep relevance they may need to focus on basketball at this point like the Big East did long ago.

I don't think it's mentioned in the lawsuit but signing a Grant of Rights for SIXTEEN (16!) YEARS has proven to be the worst blunder. Heck, ten years is far too long given the dynamics of conference realignment and TV deals nowadays. The ACC probably could have gotten the same deal if the GOR was only five or six years.

Horrible contract, behind on the expansion front....ended up getting the leftovers from the pac 10, letting the fsu/clemson situation get way out of hand. There was serious blood in the water when the b10 moved on the pac 10. They really needed to take 4 or more pac10 schools for this bi-coastal thing to make sense long term but the b12 beat them to the punch.

 

[msfboiler3]

Does sound really dumb. Did they do that to lock all the schools in?

If so, did FSU and Clemintine object at that time?

They did it for security ironically. The only thing that could save them at this point is to get nd to agree to join and work a new tv deal.

 

[msfboiler3]

The absurd new playoff structure is a disadvantage to the top seeds, who will already have been off more than a month when they face a team that has momentum and sharpness from playing a game.

It is no advantage to get an extra week of rest when every team has had a month off before the first round.

This could be another nudge to nd as well. Only conference champs get a bye.

 

[Quix0te]

Does sound really dumb. Did they do that to lock all the schools in?

At the time, the ACC schools were frothmouth rabid jealous because the Big Ten and SEC had new, highly successful conference networks and they wanted to keep up with the Joneses. The ACC schools wanted an ACC Network in the worst possible way and that is exactly what they got.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Horrible contract, behind on the expansion front....ended up getting the leftovers from the pac 10, letting the fsu/clemson situation get way out of hand. There was serious blood in the water when the b10 moved on the pac 10. They really needed to take 4 or more pac10 schools for this bi-coastal thing to make sense long term but the b12 beat them to the punch.

Lots of factual inaccuracies with these statements. I know you didn’t say it but they expanded early with Pittsburgh, clemson, Notre dame, and Louisville. They lost Maryland and did the GOR which was probably the best thing that could happen for them. If it were a 10 year deal they would be obsolete now. The only reason they are still a P4/5 conference is because of the deal. It was inevitable this was going down to 2 super conferences and the acc wasn’t one of them. They are getting decent money on tv contracts. I’m not sure they had a chance at the schools the B12 took, having a pac and Atlantic division likely would have created too much of a logistical challenge.

 

[Quix0te]

They lost Maryland and did the GOR which was probably the best thing that could happen for them.

Maybe you should ask FSU about that.

 

[msfboiler3]

Lots of factual inaccuracies with these statements. I know you didn’t say it but they expanded early with Pittsburgh, clemson, Notre dame, and Louisville. They lost Maryland and did the GOR which was probably the best thing that could happen for them. If it were a 10 year deal they would be obsolete now. The only reason they are still a P4/5 conference is because of the deal. It was inevitable this was going down to 2 super conferences and the acc wasn’t one of them. They are getting decent money on tv contracts. I’m not sure they had a chance at the schools the B12 took, having a pac and Atlantic division likely would have created too much of a logistical challenge.

Completely disagree on pac 10. B12 will survive and acc will not. Waited too long to react to what the b10 did by taking the LA schools and it was and is a horrible deal.

 

[pboiler18]

Completely disagree on pac 10. B12 will survive and acc will not. Waited too long to react to what the b10 did by taking the LA schools and it was and is a horrible deal.

I think long term, a re formed PAC12 has a better shot than making it than an FSUless and Clemsonless ACC

 

[Quix0te]

Completely disagree on pac 10. B12 will survive and acc will not.

The ACC will survive. However they may drop to G5, uh, G6 status.

 

[msfboiler3]

The ACC will survive. However they may drop to G5, uh, G6 status.

It will be in name only. I really hope it works out. Nd is probably the only thing that could save the acc. SMU was a huge reach imo. Once they took stanford and cal they needed to find a way to get a few of the recent b12 adds and get out of the espn deal. They totally flubbed the acc network as well... really need a do over. They've been reacting instead of planning recently. B12 aggressiveness is what saved and elevated the conference even while losing their premiere brands