Had more time to read on this last night. Here's what we know at this point - everything else is conjecture:
Manafort ran Trump's campaign for a crucial five-month period in 2016 that included managing the Republican convention. His business associate Rick Gates, also indicted yesterday, continued with the campaign, and the transition, after Trump fired Manafort in August 2016. Both men pleaded not guilty, and Manafort’s attorney called parts of the indictment “ridiculous,” saying Mueller is using a “very novel theory” to bring the charges.
Everything in the 12-count indictment covers the period from 2006 to 2015, before Manafort and Gates had any involvement in the Trump's campaign.
The charges involve money-laundering, tax evasion, illegal lobbying and lying. The alleged details, such as moving money from offshore accounts in places like Cyprus, have nothing to do with Trump.
Some are saying Mueller is just trying to squeeze Manafort and turn him against Trump. That may be true, but of course assumes he has some kind of incriminating evidence on the president.
Manafort’s attendance at that meeting with Donald Trump Jr. and a Russian lawyer isn’t mentioned in the indictment. It’s all about his past business dealings.
Your "What We Know" left out the guy who pled guilty about lying with regards to interacting with the Russians and who has been a proactive cooperator with the special counsel since July.
Your "What We Know" also leaves our basic facts about how investigations like these work. "Some are saying" Mueller is trying to squeeze Manafort? Uh, anyone with a clue on how these investigations work knows this is what's happening. He went at him with fairly air-tight charges. The first step in investigations like this isn't laying out all your cards on the table. Also, you do not get a plea deal with federal investigators if you don't deliver anything.
Yesterday it was clearly laid out on the table that from the counsel:
-This is what happens if you cooperate with us (Papadopoulus)
-This is what happens if you do not (Manafort & Gates)
-You better tell the truth when you talk to us because we aren't afraid to charge you for it
-We know a lot more than you may think
-This is not some sloppy operation
What this doesn't prove (or doesn't NOT prove) is:
-There was conspiracy (a crime) vs. simple collusion (which it appears there was at least attempted within the campaign's realm, but it's
not a crime alone)
-That Trump knew of it
Those are obviously the 2 "main" questions at hand.
The questions are:
-Who did Papadopoulus deliver? He was almost certainly wearing a wire and/or recording conversations with someone higher up in order to get a plea deal. The government also went to great efforts to keep this all a secret.
-Are there other Papadopouluses? We do not know who else is cooperating - whether its someone "on the radar" (i.e. Flynn) or "off the radar" (i.e. people we weren't really paying attention to).
-As the investigation progresses, more interviews are made and interrogating occurs within those charged - will it lead to information that leads to a crime having taken place?
-Even if a direct crime is not able to be proven, will it connect to other charges - like obstruction of justice? These types of cases are hard to prove - look at mob cases - they often are nailed for other stuff than what they likely did but can't be proven in court. Obviously as this goes up the food chain, that will be determined.
On a side note, something I think we can all agree on is that Carter Page is one of the dumbest people on the planet. He went on TV last night and gave an interview - stating he spoke to the FBI for hours with no lawyer present, currently has no lawyer and only has some "advisors", and basically admitted he was on email chains with Papadopoulus talking about Russia. What the hell?