Comparing last season to this season....

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I was doing a little digging and noticed a few interesting pieces of information:

1. Last season, Purdue was down more than 2 scores at the end of the first half in 4 games:
Central Michigan (21-7), Nebraska (21-7), Wisconsin (24-6), and Northwestern (24-7). In all other games, Purdue was down only one score (a total of 8 games) where Purdue had a realistic chance of winnings the game in most fans heads. Of those 8 games, Purdue lost to Notre Dame (30-14), Iowa (24-10), Michigan State (45-31), Minnesota (39-38), and IU (23-16).

In 2 of those 5 games, Purdue was down only 1 score and had a conceivable chance to win in the fourth quarter.

In the other 3 games, Purdue failed to score in the second half against Iowa and Notre Dame while also failing to score in the 3rd quarter of the Michigan State game.

Looking at this in a some what positive manner, you could conceivably argue that Purdue had a chance last season at 5 wins (adding in the two games lost by a single score). The other 3 losses paint a picture of a lack of depth that is exposed in the second half of games when reserve players are needed to spell your starters or a lack of discipline as mistakes catch up with teams.

Looking further back to the 2013 season (I know, most want to simply forget), let's compare in a similar manner:

Purdue won only a single game against Indiana State (20-14) and lost only 2 games by a single score against Notre Dame (31-24) and Illinois (20-16). In the 11 games that Purdue lost that season, Purdue was down only a single score after the first half against Cincinnati (14-7), Michigan State (7-0), and Iowa (14-7), In those losses that season, Purdue failed to score in the second half in games against Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State while also failing to score in the 3rd quarter against Iowa and Nebraska.

Diving in a bit more and removing the two worst losses to even the number of losses from 2013 and 2014, the total score for the season looks like this:

2013 Score Total (removing OSU and Nebraska): Purdue 116 Opponents 348
2013 Average Score for Losses: Purdue 12.89 Opponents 38.67
2014 Score Total: Purdue 170 Opponents 306
2014 Average Score for Losses: Purdue 18.89 Opponents 34

Although that may not look impressive at a first glance, that is an improvement on average of 6 points on offense and 4 1/2 points on defense. If improvement can be made at a similar rate and a little more, it isn't out of the realm of possibility to see the offense gain 6-8 points improvement from last season along with the defense making a similar jump. In my own mind, that would lead to it looking similar to this:

2015 Potential Average Score Improvements: Purdue 26 Opponents 27

If that were the case, Purdue seems to be in more games in the second half of games in 2015 potentially and when that occurs with a team like Purdue, wins will start to follow.

I will say 6 wins this season, but wouldn't be surprised with 7-8 in the regular season as being in a game into the 4th quarter is something this team needs to improve their effort and chances. If that happens and Purdue steals a game in the 4th against a Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, or Nebraska...8 wins isn't inconceivable.

***I will say, I am in no way a math wiz and my train of thought may not jive with you...but I tend to look at the potential for improvement rather than the potential for trending downward.***

 

[JBoiler14]

Great read, I think with some consistency at qb and with the new power running game you would think some consistency could come to our offense. Which is all I really think we need to be a bowl team this year possibly

 

[BoilerBulldog]

Good stuff. This is why I have such little patience with our fans who regularly moan on here about how we aren't improving. No ones happy with the W-L...but some of us at least believe we are getting better. Ask me again at 7 pm on Labor Day Sunday night and my opinion may have changed.

 

[izakman]

I think that another thing that needs a look is Time-Of-Possession. It may be that the worst thing that happened to our defense was our offense. Our defense was just on the field too long and it seemed that somewhere around half way through the third quarter of most games, they were gassed, and that's when opponents really took advantage.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I think that another thing that needs a look is Time-Of-Possession. It may be that the worst thing that happened to our defense was our offense. Our defense was just on the field too long and it seemed that somewhere around half way through the third quarter of most games, they were gassed, and that's when opponents really took advantage.

This is where I hope that DJ Knox running behind a more mature offensive line will help. Last year's running attack was feast or famine. Purdue would greatly benefit from more sustained drives.

 

[npb]

I was doing a little digging and noticed a few interesting pieces of information:

1. Last season, Purdue was down more than 2 scores at the end of the first half in 4 games:
Central Michigan (21-7), Nebraska (21-7), Wisconsin (24-6), and Northwestern (24-7). In all other games, Purdue was down only one score (a total of 8 games) where Purdue had a realistic chance of winnings the game in most fans heads. Of those 8 games, Purdue lost to Notre Dame (30-14), Iowa (24-10), Michigan State (45-31), Minnesota (39-38), and IU (23-16).

In 2 of those 5 games, Purdue was down only 1 score and had a conceivable chance to win in the fourth quarter.

In the other 3 games, Purdue failed to score in the second half against Iowa and Notre Dame while also failing to score in the 3rd quarter of the Michigan State game.

Looking at this in a some what positive manner, you could conceivably argue that Purdue had a chance last season at 5 wins (adding in the two games lost by a single score). The other 3 losses paint a picture of a lack of depth that is exposed in the second half of games when reserve players are needed to spell your starters or a lack of discipline as mistakes catch up with teams.

Looking further back to the 2013 season (I know, most want to simply forget), let's compare in a similar manner:

Purdue won only a single game against Indiana State (20-14) and lost only 2 games by a single score against Notre Dame (31-24) and Illinois (20-16). In the 11 games that Purdue lost that season, Purdue was down only a single score after the first half against Cincinnati (14-7), Michigan State (7-0), and Iowa (14-7), In those losses that season, Purdue failed to score in the second half in games against Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State while also failing to score in the 3rd quarter against Iowa and Nebraska.

Diving in a bit more and removing the two worst losses to even the number of losses from 2013 and 2014, the total score for the season looks like this:

2013 Score Total (removing OSU and Nebraska): Purdue 116 Opponents 348
2013 Average Score for Losses: Purdue 12.89 Opponents 38.67
2014 Score Total: Purdue 170 Opponents 306
2014 Average Score for Losses: Purdue 18.89 Opponents 34

Although that may not look impressive at a first glance, that is an improvement on average of 6 points on offense and 4 1/2 points on defense. If improvement can be made at a similar rate and a little more, it isn't out of the realm of possibility to see the offense gain 6-8 points improvement from last season along with the defense making a similar jump. In my own mind, that would lead to it looking similar to this:

2015 Potential Average Score Improvements: Purdue 26 Opponents 27

If that were the case, Purdue seems to be in more games in the second half of games in 2015 potentially and when that occurs with a team like Purdue, wins will start to follow.

I will say 6 wins this season, but wouldn't be surprised with 7-8 in the regular season as being in a game into the 4th quarter is something this team needs to improve their effort and chances. If that happens and Purdue steals a game in the 4th against a Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, or Nebraska...8 wins isn't inconceivable.

***I will say, I am in no way a math wiz and my train of thought may not jive with you...but I tend to look at the potential for improvement rather than the potential for trending downward.***

A very thoughtful, and, yes, optimistic analysis. But, I am in general agreement with you. With more experience, more depth, better phsical conditioning, and growing confidence we have a good chance of winning more games than losing. I believe our running Game will buy Time of possession in many of our games, thus resting our offense. I think our offense will be more varied, less predictable and more dangerous with up tempo game that appeals to Appleby. The team and coaches have developed a more unified and disciplined culture. My guess is seven wins this year with a greater chance of having eight wins than five wins. Norm