There are actually surprisingly few P5 coaches who leave to coach at other P5 schools. This year the Texas, LSU, and Oregon jobs were all open. People were talking like they could name their price and hire anyone... LSU promoted a coordinator, while Texas and Oregon poached rising stars from the American Conference. The prior year the biggest open jobs were USC,Georgia, and Miami. Again.. USC- hired from within, Georgia- signed Bama's DC, Miami- pulled Mark Richt off of unemployment.
There is a strong trend of coaches choosing staying in place once they get a secure P5 gig.
Maybe the Louisville thing is a risk, who knows.. I think Petrino has earned some job security and will be there awhile. If he was a bit older I could see the Tiller thing happening (basketball school gets good in football, then becomes complacent with 7/8 win seasons, pressures the coach out), but he's only 56 and has a huge buyout.