Colvin is not a point guard. Problem is they really only have one other player who is at all capable at point, Jones and he starts.
Braden Smith's Wear?
- Thread starter Boiler Buck
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I actually think MP is purposely pushing Braden's minutes in games, not because they can't play without him (although they're certainly not as good), but because he needs him to be mentally strong when he's tired.
I seem to recall MP stating a number of times (sorry, no link), that Braden needs to make better decisions when he's tired and it looks to me like that is happening. To your point, if that is the strategy, hopefully MP is smart enough to manage Braden's load in practice.
Completely agree on Colvin, but MP could play Jones, Fletcher and Morton or Heide and have capable ball handlers on the floor. The fact that he hasn't been, even when games are in hand, leads me to believe that he's purposely pushing Braden's minutes for a reason.
Colvin is not a point guard, no way he replaces Braden, but can play the two or three. Explanation on why he does not play much. I suspect the coaches watch him in practice and feel he is not ready against better opponents in tough games. Don’t know why he can’t play a bit more in blowouts, and if he whiffs on defense he learns.
Somebody will get the good Colvin when he transfers either after this year or next. With Loyer and Smith along with Catchings and Heide getting big minutes where will there be playing time ?
I know what he is, I was just referring to players that should get some PT vs Micheatan
Oh god, I sure as hell hope this isn't the case. Braden definitely needs some in-game rest. Can't have him being worn out when it truly matters come NCAA-tournament time.
Trey has shown to be a good replacement for Zach should Zach have something happen that has not happened and him foul out, be sick whatever. Obviously it is a step down to Trey, but this team has so many weapons that it didn't have the last couple of years I think it could still get by a mid to late 30s team. The Northwestern game was not a neutral site. Boo went off even more so than many other games. Lance fouled out that hurt. However, IMO the real thing Northwestern was able to do that other teams probably can't is throw good sized bodies at Zach and foul him to keep him from scoring without hurting the offense of Northwestern. Northwestern used 3 bigs I think to foul Zach to keep him from scoring when they called fouls. Those pieces off the board never hurt Northwestern's offense. Most teams don't have three bigs that don't hurt their offense. I don't think it was Purdue's best game, but perhaps it was Northwestern's best game? So, when I consider all those things I think Purdue should be able to get by the first two games comfortably. I say that and I know that when the ball is poorly tossed that the game takes on a life of it own and anything can happen. I just think this team has more ways of winning than in the past. In the past they were good at what they did, but I think this team can win in different ways..
Interesting. FWIW, I remember one group of players that I had come in early to run the stairs before practice because I wanted their focus when they were tired. Your post is the first I've read on here that considers fatigue and decision making as well as pushing through things when tired.
Catchings will play the 4 and Morton and Jones are gone. He'll get more minutes, how many more depend upon the jump he makes. I expect it to be significant.
I think Braden plays too many minutes, especially when we have leads. He brings the ball up against pressure on most possessions and that will takes its toll over a season. When you don't have legs, your shot suffers. I have posted this before, but it's appropriate here. Several years ago when the Final 4 was in Indy, I was at Ruth Chris and over heard Mike K and Rick Pitino talking about this very subject. Both talked about saving their players legs, particularly for the tournament. Practices couldn't be grueling. They were not big on conference tournaments. It was extremely interesting to listen to. We need Smith for the long haul. He may be 20 years old but months of exertion will take its toll eventually. Just my two cents.
It is a legitimate concern and one that Matt and all coaches are aware. Coaches typically cut the practice time down later in the season to attempt to accomplish resting the body more. I do NOT know when that happens, but suspect it is a few weeks away...unless Matt slowly goes there????
I think we will see less minutes for Smith during the easier games in the league. I also expect Painter to lessen his load with Jones and Morton as the conference season winds down. Realistically if he can get a break from bringing the ball up for a few minutes a game, that should help amplify the effects he gets from his time on the bench as well.
It has been stated by Purdue coaches and B10 announcers that while Colvin has Offensive abilities, he is slow on the Defensive end and needs to pick up the speed of the game. I believe that is why he gets in at those moments that limit his impact.
Why would he transfer? Myles just turned 18 and is still developing and there’s tons of potential there. He’s legacy and I’d assume his dad (amazing purdue football player) understood it may be a bit until he plays major minutes.
But next year he will be in the rotation with Smith, Loyer, Heide, and probably Harris and maybe Cox or Benter. Hopefully, he makes a good jump and will see at least 15 min next year and hopefully more. I am speculating, but the way painter has recruited for this year and next, we should be a bit smaller, but quicker and long. I’d assume our tempo will match this year or be better next year. Not sure it’d make sense to transfer that quick and have to start over at a new program.
Without Edey, we are a #20-30 team ourselves. So sure we could beat a #8/9 seed without him, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Well, I don't want to see it (not having zach). I just see so many more ways this team can score than in the past. That said, we also (in reference to your point) saw some poorer D without Zach in some games. If you have time to change your D a bit without Zach that is one thing, but if he goes down in a game it may be tougher on Purdue's D than O? Out of necessity if a player was lost outside of Braden and Zach, those other players that get so few of minutes to get going will get more minutes and perhaps get more comfortable and perform better than anticipated?
I also believe that Purdue has that monkey on it's back a bit and the farther it goes...which typically is against better teams, the more relaxed Purdue will be. Anyway, I think this team is better than the start of the year as those other teams are as well, but maybe Purdue's growth is bigger than the early season than those highly ranked teams at the time.
Arrrgh! Mom and dad both loved it, I'd have to leave the house when they cooked it. This coming from a guy who loves LIVER.
I think that applies more to practice and maybe games very late in the season.
After all, John Scheyer averaged 36.8 minutes for Coach K’s 2010 national champion and Grayson Allen averaged 36.6 a few years later. Many (and probably most) of Coach K’s teams had a player who averaged over 35.
I think we can all agree that a "bad game" once is just that, a bad game. Happens. Two in a row is an outlier. Ok.... 3 in a row vs Meat-Chicken (home game) is a pattern and then we can push the panic button.
Not sure Braden has had a bad game the last two. His shot has been off compared to earlier in the season. Had he had a "bad" game Matt would have had to take him out and then something other than playing minutes might be discussed...most likely with some futuristic view of an apocalypse? Instead Matt saw his game as needed and in spite of some mental lapses knew he was a positive with Purdue needing him, elevating his minutes that has caused concern amongst some. The discussion has never been about Braden being bad and needing less minutes, nor has the discussion ever been about Braden being bad and needing more minutes. The discussions have always been about Braden having games not quite to the standard most believe he is capable and questioning if not meeting the standard of the fans is indicative of fatigue. We also saw Zach in the Illinois and Nebraska game not perform at the standard we are used to seeing and there was no concern that this might show up in the tourney due to something?
We have no say in what happens relative to Purdue basketball. Whether the general thought in the forum is of disgust or joy, we are just fans passively involved. Therefore, going into a panic mode with something we cannot control just raises our anxiety levels and some of us are too old to migrate there .
Braden controlled the Iowa game the first half and a good portion of the second even on a bad shooting day. He had some bad turnovers midway through the second, which may have been fatigue but also maybe trying to do too much. I’m interested to see how he does tonight and then on Sunday. If he continues to miss shots, and not control the game, then like you said, maybe time to panic a bit.
I would absolutely not agree that a poor shooting game from Braden would signal it’s time to hit the panic button. Unless you’re looking for a reason to do so, then push away.
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IMO, he looks a little tired, but as others have said, we have no way of proving or disproving either way.
What is more concerning to me is his 3 pt % splits for home and away. He has a huge discrepancy between the two.
Home - 48.7%
Away/neutral - 32.1%
That is a huge difference. For reference, both Jones and Loyer have less than 7 percentage points difference in those splits.
Since the tournaments, both conference and the dance, aren't played in Mackey, that is concerning.
What is more concerning to me is his 3 pt % splits for home and away. He has a huge discrepancy between the two.
Home - 48.7%
Away/neutral - 32.1%
That is a huge difference. For reference, both Jones and Loyer have less than 7 percentage points difference in those splits.
Since the tournaments, both conference and the dance, aren't played in Mackey, that is concerning.
That is a big difference. The first question I would have...and I do not know, is whether this was a consistent issue in home and away? Second, is this an issue that is reflected not in a consistent pattern, but more recently...or less of an issue now? Third, is the data generally a game or two in magnitude of misses and if so was it balanced out by a couple of games of makes. I in no way am suggesting extra work since we all have enough to do. I just tend to try to understand variation as much as means. When your away or neutral is 32% and half again that percent is added for the home the difference has a large magnitude. I'm guessing that is an extra miss per game away than home, but I don't know that since I have no idea how many he shoots per game on average...and now that I think of it...does it differ between home and away games?
It is very interesting and should generate lots of questions.
He averages 3.3 attempts at home and 4.0 away. His regular FG% is very close home and away, it's the 3 pt% that has the huge difference. Below is a link if you're interested in seeing all the detail including stats from each game.
Braden Smith 2023-24 NCAAM Splits - ESPN
View the 2023-24 NCAAM season full splits for Braden Smith of the Purdue Boilermakers on ESPN. Includes full stats per opponent, and home and away games.
A 3 game shooting slump is nothing. It happens to all shooters from time to time. If there was a time to panic it was before the 2019 NCAA Tournament when Carsen Edwards was shooting 23/103 from 3 in the prior 11 games. Of course, we all remember what happened next. There will be ups and downs, but this team has enough excellent shooters that I am optimistic that at least a few of them will shoot well when it matters most.
Interesting. AS I was looking at the Iowa numbers it didn't make any sense until I thought...and yes it was for two games. The IU game really pulled his numbers down shooting. He had a very good floor game, but his shot was offHe averages 3.3 attempts at home and 4.0 away. His regular FG% is very close home and away, it's the 3 pt% that has the huge difference. Below is a link if you're interested in seeing all the detail including stats from each game.
Braden Smith 2023-24 NCAAM Splits - ESPN
View the 2023-24 NCAAM season full splits for Braden Smith of the Purdue Boilermakers on ESPN. Includes full stats per opponent, and home and away games.www.espn.com
Using only the BIG games since those are the most scouted and current, Braden played an average of 35.5 minutes and shot 34% from two and 39% from two, if you don’t count IU. He shot 29.4% from 3 and if you don’t count IU he shot 38.5%. He shot 83.3%, but minus IU it is 90%. He averages 1 O board and 4.7 def, 8.1 asst and .07 steals, 1.86 fouls and 3.21 turnovers. He played 36 minutes against IU and 39 against Iowa for an average last week of 37.5 minutes. Take away last weeks minutes and his game minutes average drop 1 minute from 35.5 to 34.5. Some of those 2s I personally believe were attempts to just get it on the board for Zach and not really shots...especially the one that Zach came charging in and slammed just due to the angle and location Braden placed the ball
This data can easily be put in excel for any interested.
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Yep. A Great Braden Smith is Crucial to Purdue......why I started the thread. Thanks for the info.
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No one has provided a logical reason for Colvin not playing. Some say he’s not a point guard. Semantics. We just need another guard. Simple as that. Defensive liability or trying to catch up to game speed? That argument doesn’t hold water when you consider Painter started two freshman last year who struggled mightily on D at times.
Has nobody thought about what this team does in March if Braden gets tired or in foul trouble? Now imagine we also are playing from behind. We can’t expect Jones to play 40 minutes. Morton can’t score like Braden, but if Colvin is the other guard then we have athleticism and scoring to offset and keep the opposing defense honest. My point is we really only play 3 guards at two positions. It doesn’t take rocket science to realize you might want a back up plan for single elimination games.
We also have people on this board talking about how much he’ll contribute next year. That’s wonderful and he will. We are talking about winning a natty THIS year.
Has nobody thought about what this team does in March if Braden gets tired or in foul trouble? Now imagine we also are playing from behind. We can’t expect Jones to play 40 minutes. Morton can’t score like Braden, but if Colvin is the other guard then we have athleticism and scoring to offset and keep the opposing defense honest. My point is we really only play 3 guards at two positions. It doesn’t take rocket science to realize you might want a back up plan for single elimination games.
We also have people on this board talking about how much he’ll contribute next year. That’s wonderful and he will. We are talking about winning a natty THIS year.
Colvin, who most people on the board would like to see get more minutes, has nothing to do with Smith.
Carsen Edwards' play was awful leading to the tournament his final year, but he found another gear. I don't try to predict these things any more.
That’s all you’ve got? You have provided no rational argument or logical reasoning in response to my post.
You have a very loose grip of what is logical and if you can’t understand the difference between what it’s like to compete for backcourt minutes this year versus last year you have a very loose understanding of basketball.
Good news is that I think it’s fair to say that Smith looked fantastic last night. He didn’t show any signs, in my opinion, of being tired or worn down.
I agree that there are times that Smith looks tired at the end of a game where he has barely come off of the court, but that is to be expected and I don’t see any reason to believe that it is carrying over from game to game. If anything, I think that the games where he does that are making him stronger in the face of adversity.
I agree that there are times that Smith looks tired at the end of a game where he has barely come off of the court, but that is to be expected and I don’t see any reason to believe that it is carrying over from game to game. If anything, I think that the games where he does that are making him stronger in the face of adversity.
I love Myles and have been saying how great he is going to be. However, I am assuming there are things he isn’t doing that are up to painters standards in practice and in the game. He is often out of position on defense and can’t guard very well. I haven’t seen him rebound/go stick a hand in his man’a chest and box the guy out yet. Does he do that? If you allow players to do that and not hold them accountable…well you see what’s going on down in Bloomington.
But let’s go through the guard positions…
Braden is playing at such a high level right now and running the team better than any PG has in a looooong time…maybe ever, in Painters tenure. If he can keep this up the rest of the year and into the tourney, he will be on 2nd or 3rd team AA. In addition to this, Myles can’t handle the ball or run the team like Smith. So, he wouldn’t play in his spot. Which is where Morton has gained a few more mins during the game because he’s can handle the ball without turning it over and be solid with it. I don’t like him playing at all, but need to understand he’s in there to give Braden a rest and not let the game get out of hand with smith on the bench. He can’t shoot, as his confidence is not there. But he does offer good off ball defense and is good at denying the ball, but only so so on ball defense.
Lance is playing very well right now on both sides of the ball and is our best defender at guard. He is able to hit the second gear when driving to the hoop or guarding a guy. Myles has not shown either (yet) and it wouldn’t make sense to play Myles over Lance.
Loyer, while not the best defender, is in position for team defense. Loyer also has earned a right to play more and start as he is averaging 43% on 3 (like Colvin) on double the shots and 50% in conf play. Myles is 50% from FTs (only 8 all year) and Loyer is almost automatic. Loyer is rolling on offense and why would you reduce his mins to get him out of his groove?
Morton, we have gone over that he is the backup ball handler so that’s why he gets 5ish mins a game, but I do agree that Myles should get at least 2-3 mins of the mins of Morton’s when he isn’t in for Braden. However, you do have to make sure that Colvin is not on the floor with Loyer at the same time because they both are not great defenders.
In regards to Painter playing freshman last year at the 1 and 2…I mean he was forced to do that. Loyer and Smith were also better than DJJ and Newman.
In regards to your scenarios…
We haven’t really played from behind this year to where we needed to score quick, due to how the offense is set up with Zach. Maybe Colvin will play more if we need that fire power, but so far it hasn’t happened.
Braden also hasn’t been in fouls trouble yet, so we don’t know how we’d adjust. He’s been tired, but I think a tired Braden is still the best PG on the team. And jones doesn’t play 40, but come tourney time, if that’s what he has to do to have Purdue win, he will. Lots of starters on good teams play 32-36 mins a night.
I hope we can continue to get Myles more mins, as he provides that offensive spark and he’s not afraid of the moment. I love that he has the DGAF attitude and is going to get his shot up—him and Lance bring that like Carsen did. Have to hope he improves in those spots that Painter thinks need improving in practice and in the limited game action he gets.
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