Big Ten Moments of Truth

[northside100]

As of this morning there are six teams in the Big Ten with three or fewer conference losses and only Michigan has more than four losses. The consensus seems to be that Purdue and Wisconsin are the cream of the conference crop with IL (sans Shannon) coming in at third. My working thesis is that MSU, OSU, IU, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska are the prime candidates to finish in the top five. Looking at the games between those teams through the first weekend in February, it looks like we should gain some visibility as to how close it's likely to be in the race for the title and who the real contenders are to finish in the top third of the conference and make the NCAAT.

Observations

• Nebraska risks falling out of a top 3 finish conversation unless they take 2 of 3 with NU and OSU at home and @ Wisconsin
• IL plays four games against contenders over that span @NU, vs IU, @OSU and vs Nebraska, can they hold up without Shannon?
• NU also plays four games against contenders @Nebraska, vs IL, vs OSU and @Purdue, if they win the first three the game @Purdue becomes significant
• IU needs to split @IL and vs IA
• Wisconsin can prove that they're clearly in the top two with wins vs MSU at home and @ Nebraska before taking on Purdue on 2/4
• Purdue can take control of the race by taking care of business @ IA, gaining retribution vs NU at home and stealing one @ Wisconsin.

Key Games Through 2/4
Purdue @ IA
NU @ Nebraska
OSU @ Nebraska
IL @ NU
MSU @ Wisconsin
IU @ IL
OSU @ NU
IL @ OSU
IA @ IU
NU @ Purdue
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
OSU @ IA
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Nebraska @ IL

 

[hawkjt]

Could Iowa be a trap game as boilers come off huge win vs rival IU and face Mich on Tues?
After the butt-kicking administered by the boilers earlier in the season vs Hawkeyes will they overlook Iowa?
Iowa is down one starter(Pat Mccafferty) so depth could be an issue.
Is PU healthy?

 

[northside100]

Could Iowa be a trap game as boilers come off huge win vs rival IU and face Mich on Tues?
After the butt-kicking administered by the boilers earlier in the season vs Hawkeyes will they overlook Iowa?
Iowa is down one starter(Pat Mccafferty) so depth could be an issue.
Is PU healthy?

Maturity test for Purdue for sure. I haven't noticed this Purdue team overlook anyone this season but there have been games (Nebraska is the perfect example) where they didn't come out sharp, didn't play as hard as they could have and let their opponent get their head up.

If they come out flat at Iowa I expect the Hawkeyes to be fully capable of making this a game.

PS - I don't think there's any risk of Purdue looking past Iowa towards Michigan. Painter has a ton of respect for Fran and I think (hope) that this Purdue team has a chip on their shoulder after getting rolled at Nebraska.

 

[Hausta01]

Could Iowa be a trap game as boilers come off huge win vs rival IU and face Mich on Tues?
After the butt-kicking administered by the boilers earlier in the season vs Hawkeyes will they overlook Iowa?
Iowa is down one starter(Pat Mccafferty) so depth could be an issue.
Is PU healthy?

NO! Get out of here, we hate you! Our B1G overlords have declared it so!

 

[Boilerball3]

No way. We could have beaten Iowa by 45 at home but our dawgs only played half the game. Boilers by 15

 

[PaBoiler78]

Could Iowa be a trap game as boilers come off huge win vs rival IU and face Mich on Tues?
After the butt-kicking administered by the boilers earlier in the season vs Hawkeyes will they overlook Iowa?
Iowa is down one starter(Pat Mccafferty) so depth could be an issue.
Is PU healthy?

don't see it as a trap game, Mich is meh esp w/ Duggy out on road games, iowa deserves more attention

 

[Hausta01]

don't see it as a trap game, Mich is meh esp w/ Duggy out on road games, iowa deserves more attention

How the heck does that work? Not to derail this thread, but doesn't that completely throw subbing patterns and roles way out of wack?

Like you are going to ask someone to be a role player at home for Duggie boy but then ask them to take a much more significant role on the road.

And what if said player excels in an expanded role? Generally, I would think that's a good thing but probably not for a team that doesn't appear to have good chemistry in Michigan.

It is almost like the worst solution possible

 

[Roeder]

Could Iowa be a trap game as boilers come off huge win vs rival IU and face Mich on Tues?
After the butt-kicking administered by the boilers earlier in the season vs Hawkeyes will they overlook Iowa?
Iowa is down one starter(Pat Mccafferty) so depth could be an issue.
Is PU healthy?

I hope not, but if Iowa shoots like Nebraska did anything is possible. I expect to see a ton of zone and pressing from Fran to try to get Purdue uncomfortable.

Overall, Iowa is one of the B1G teams I feel Purdue matches up best with since they don't have many (any?) physical athletes on the wing and are pretty soft on the interior.

 

[northside100]

No way. We could have beaten Iowa by 45 at home but our dawgs only played half the game. Boilers by 15

Good call

 

[Boilerball3]

Good call

I was off by a point, but that happens from time to time 🤣

 

[northside100]

As of this morning there are six teams in the Big Ten with three or fewer conference losses and only Michigan has more than four losses. The consensus seems to be that Purdue and Wisconsin are the cream of the conference crop with IL (sans Shannon) coming in at third. My working thesis is that MSU, OSU, IU, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska are the prime candidates to finish in the top five. Looking at the games between those teams through the first weekend in February, it looks like we should gain some visibility as to how close it's likely to be in the race for the title and who the real contenders are to finish in the top third of the conference and make the NCAAT.

Observations

• Nebraska risks falling out of a top 3 finish conversation unless they take 2 of 3 with NU and OSU at home and @ Wisconsin
• IL plays four games against contenders over that span @NU, vs IU, @OSU and vs Nebraska, can they hold up without Shannon?
• NU also plays four games against contenders @Nebraska, vs IL, vs OSU and @Purdue, if they win the first three the game @Purdue becomes significant
• IU needs to split @IL and vs IA
• Wisconsin can prove that they're clearly in the top two with wins vs MSU at home and @ Nebraska before taking on Purdue on 2/4
• Purdue can take control of the race by taking care of business @ IA, gaining retribution vs NU at home and stealing one @ Wisconsin.

Key Games Through 2/4
Purdue @ IA
NU @ Nebraska
OSU @ Nebraska
IL @ NU
MSU @ Wisconsin
IU @ IL
OSU @ NU
IL @ OSU
IA @ IU
NU @ Purdue
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
OSU @ IA
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Nebraska @ IL

Taking a look back at my own notes now that we've reached the end of this stretch. A few observations:

• My notes above were written before Shannon was reinstated. With Shannon back IL will battle WI for second and potentially push Purdue for first (although they'd likely need to beat Purdue at home, win at Wisconsin and get some help to capture a share of the title).
• Not as much separation as I thought there would be in the next tier with eight teams between 6-5 and 5-6.
• I'm not quite sure how MSU maintains a NET ranking of 22.
• Nebraska, NU and Iowa seem to have a shot at NCAAT bids with NET rankings between 52 and 60 but each would need to make a run.
• Maryland, MN and PSU have been better than expected but seem unlikely to make an NCAAT push without pulling a couple major upsets with NET rankings of 78, 91 and 99.
• IU could still theoretically pull off a top five BT finish but is pretty far outside of the NCAAT discussion with a NET ranking of 103, having dropped 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 9. ESPN's matchup predictor has them as underdogs in 8 of their remaining 9 games with a 50.2% chance of winning the one game they're favored at home versus Nebraska. Heartbreaking.
• OSU has fared worse than I would have expected at 3-8 in conference play but maintain a surprisingly high NET ranking of 68. Holtmann's contract is fully guaranteed through the '27-'28 season and his team is young, but they've lost 7 of 8 and badly need wins at home this week versus IU and Maryland before heading to Wisky and facing Purdue at home.
• Pretty ho-hum slate of games this week with the highlights I guess being IL at MSU and IU at Purdue on Saturday in national network games (CBS and FOX).
• Can Purdue stay focused, take care of business and keep getting better over the next three weeks where they'll be heavily favored the next five games before closing versus MSU, at IL and vs Wisky.

 

[boilerzz]

 

[Boiler Buck]

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Nebraska, currently 1-6 on the road....has road games @ Michigan, NW, iu and OSU. Because of beating Purdue, probably make it only winning 2 of those. Losing 3, maybe?? And in any case, losing to OSU, Michigan or especially lowly iu isn't a good look. So they need to take care of at least some business away from home.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Nebraska, currently 1-6 on the road....has road games @ Michigan, NW, iu and OSU. Because of beating Purdue, probably make it only winning 2 of those. Losing 3, maybe?? And in any case, losing to OSU, Michigan or especially lowly iu isn't a good look. So they need to take care of at least some business away from home.

No doubt. Would like to see them In the tourney! If they could have just pulled off the victory last night, that would have helped immensely…oh well. Their schedule gets a bit “easier” so I’d assume they’d take care of business, but like you said, they aren’t good on the road.

 

[northside100]

Nebraska, currently 1-6 on the road....has road games @ Michigan, NW, iu and OSU. Because of beating Purdue, probably make it only winning 2 of those. Losing 3, maybe?? And in any case, losing to OSU, Michigan or especially lowly iu isn't a good look. So they need to take care of at least some business away from home.

Yeah, I'm assuming their high projected likelihood to make the NCAAT is heavily based on wins versus Purdue and Wisky. If you believe the projections, which tend to be pretty accurate, Nebraska probably just needs to hold serve and avoid bad losses to make the tournament. Same for NU based on wins versus Purdue and IL.

Iowa has some decent wins but no 'signature' wins. I believe they have Wisky, IL and MSU remaining and probably need to win at least a couple of those.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Nebraska, currently 1-6 on the road....has road games @ Michigan, NW, iu and OSU. Because of beating Purdue, probably make it only winning 2 of those. Losing 3, maybe?? And in any case, losing to OSU, Michigan or especially lowly iu isn't a good look. So they need to take care of at least some business away from home.

Gave it a game effort yesterday in Champaign-Urbana behind Tominaga's 30......just not quite enough down the stretch and in OT. Domask split two FT's to send it to the extra session, and Illinois seemingly made one more play when needed.

 

[northside100]

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Good post, thanks for sharing, I take back what I said about Nebraska, Iowa and NU. Despite similar NET rankings, Iowa just doesn't have the Quad 1 wins (0-6) versus NU (4-5) and Nebraska (3-4).

OSU Quad 1 and 2 performance is abysmal (1-5, 0-4), not sure how they have a NET ranking of 68.

 

[northside100]

Nebraska, currently 1-6 on the road....has road games @ Michigan, NW, iu and OSU. Because of beating Purdue, probably make it only winning 2 of those. Losing 3, maybe?? And in any case, losing to OSU, Michigan or especially lowly iu isn't a good look. So they need to take care of at least some business away from home.

To your point on who needs to do what to 'take care of business', taking a look here at what Purdue, WI and IL have left as well as matchups between the seven 'middle of the pack' teams. Interesting to note that aside from UM, even the teams at the bottom have shown that they can beat people, i.e. OSU, Rutgers and Maryland are unlikely to finish in the top five, but on a good night, particularly at home, they can beat anyone in the conference.

Purdue
True challenges (2) - at IL, vs WI
Potential trip ups (3) - vs IU, at OSU, vs MSU
Layups (3) - vs Rut, at UM, vs MN

Wisconsin
True challenges (2) - vs IL, at PU
Potential trip ups (3) - at Rut, at IA, at IU,
Layups (4) - at UM, vs OSU, vs MD, vs Rut

Illinois
True challenges (3) - at MSU, at WI, vs Purdue
Potential trip ups (4) - at MD, at PSU, vs IA, at IA
Layups (2) - vs UM, vs MN

Middle of the Pack Matchups (chronological order)
NE at NU
IA at PSU
PSU at NU
MN at IA
MSU at PSU
PSU at NE
NU at IU
IA at MSU
NU at IU
IU at PSU
MN at NU
PSU at IA
PSU at MN
IA at NU
NU at MSU
IU at MN
MN at NU
MSU at IU