Anyone viewing practices?

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

One area where I expect Edey to continue to progress is in his passing. Combine that with a versatile TKR who can score inside and out and I think the potential is there to really put defenses in a bind. A lot of teams like to double off of the 4, but I see TKR as a player who makes that a very risky option for the defense.

Right now my gut says that Waddell starts at the 3. I think he looks like a talented glue guy to compliment Edey, TKR, Loyer, and Smith. Colvin then brings huge athleticism off the bench as he emerges as the sixth man. Just my guess at this point.

Might just be. Still not sure about TKR and Zach together in part because that leaves Furst/Gillis as the front off the bench and is that enough scoring? I really like Caleb and Trey together for a more athletic, running type of team, but Hey, whatever works. If TKR continues to look as he has so far, you have to get him on the floor and try to make it work UNLESS everyone else shoots lights out and makes another prime scorer less of a need.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

I think I will be in the minority here but I have a feeling that Loyer won’t make a Sophomore jump like expected. Something about his overall play and shooting difficulty last year leaves me to expect more of the same. I hope I am wrong! Yes we are all speculating off of limited information and expectations based on past performance, guessing about improvements. Not to mention trying to anticipate what Painter is thinking.

Mmmm, he's a pretty pure shooter and can score a lot of different ways. Heady too. He's going to be very good before he leaves. I have wondered if perhaps someone blowing up (Colvin) might not put a lot of pressure on Fletchers pt as Myles would cause a lot of match up nightmares for other teams.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

I can see the points on both sides - it's definitely one of the bigger variables, IMO. Of course it's all speculation, but I tend to agree with the freshman "wall" and some other factors, which could be overcome.

If you look at the early part of the conference season, Fletcher Loyer was a huge difference maker and handled himself well in pressure situations. Granted Purdue didn't come out on top, but he made the go-ahead basket late against Rutgers - only a failed Boiler defensive effort at the end spoiled that. He and Zach Edey made the big play to win in Columbus (with Morton also getting a key steal), and he was solid in East Lansing where Braden Smith got into foul trouble. Then what happened - conference teams started really getting physical with him on the perimeter on both ends of the floor.....hell, he was even fouled by an opposing coach (which is still unfathomable to me how that went down).

I think there was also a loss of confidence. I expect he will be better for it for having gone through some of the struggles last year. I'm fairly certain Matt Painter still believes very much in his ability and future. However, nothing is guaranteed, and tomorrow is promised to no one. We shall see, starting in a couple of weeks, but I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how he looks and responds this year.

+1 - The kid is a tiger in a light weight suit. Once he's strong enough to claw his way out he's going to kick some butt, but is that this year?

 

[SCBoiler1]

I can see the points on both sides - it's definitely one of the bigger variables, IMO. Of course it's all speculation, but I tend to agree with the freshman "wall" and some other factors, which could be overcome.

If you look at the early part of the conference season, Fletcher Loyer was a huge difference maker and handled himself well in pressure situations. Granted Purdue didn't come out on top, but he made the go-ahead basket late against Rutgers - only a failed Boiler defensive effort at the end spoiled that. He and Zach Edey made the big play to win in Columbus (with Morton also getting a key steal), and he was solid in East Lansing where Braden Smith got into foul trouble. Then what happened - conference teams started really getting physical with him on the perimeter on both ends of the floor.....hell, he was even fouled by an opposing coach (which is still unfathomable to me how that went down).

I think there was also a loss of confidence. I expect he will be better for it for having gone through some of the struggles last year. I'm fairly certain Matt Painter still believes very much in his ability and future. However, nothing is guaranteed, and tomorrow is promised to no one. We shall see, starting in a couple of weeks, but I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how he looks and responds this year.

The thing about guys whose main contribution is three-point shooting, if they are not hitting shots they can fall out of favor pretty quickly. We've seen it with guys like Stephans, Wheeler and Newman in the past. Keaton Grant and Anthony Johnson are another couple guys who come to mind.

Purdue played 35 games last year. In the last 17 games Loyer shot 24% from 3. He only had 3 games out of those 17 where he made more than 1 three and he made zero 5 times. He scored 13.4 points per game in the first 18 games 8.3 points per game in the last 17. During that same time frame Morton averaged less than 3.7 points per game. Not coincidently Purdue lost 5 of those 17 games and of the 12 they won, 6 of them were by 5 points or less.

Bottom line is we need more from the 2 and 3 this year. I think Loyer can be a big part of it, but I'm not sure it's a given.

 

[Heads up BOILER]

The thing about guys whose main contribution is three-point shooting, if they are not hitting shots they can fall out of favor pretty quickly. We've seen it with guys like Stephans, Wheeler and Newman in the past. Keaton Grant and Anthony Johnson are another couple guys who come to mind.

Purdue played 35 games last year. In the last 17 games Loyer shot 24% from 3. He only had 3 games out of those 17 where he made more than 1 three and he made zero 5 times. He scored 13.4 points per game in the first 18 games 8.3 points per game in the last 17. During that same time frame Morton averaged less than 3.7 points per game. Not coincidently Purdue lost 5 of those 17 games and of the 12 they won, 6 of them were by 5 points or less.

Bottom line is we need more from the 2 and 3 this year. I think Loyer can be a big part of it, but I'm not sure it's a given.

That’s why I am not confident in a sophomore jump from him. He fell apart before I would have expected him to hit the freshman wall, it was mid season. He lost confidence, hesitated often, and form must have changed with the huge drop off. Increased physical defensive pressure was almost certainly partially responsible so he’ll need to have adjusted his game to deal with that. If he struggles like that again then I think Painter should start taking minutes away with the depth on this team. I like Loyer but I do think he will need to figure out how avoid whatever issues caused his difficulty last year. Would love to see him shoot 38-40% from 3 and continue working on feeding the low post.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

That’s why I am not confident in a sophomore jump from him. He fell apart before I would have expected him to hit the freshman wall, it was mid season. He lost confidence, hesitated often, and form must have changed with the huge drop off. Increased physical defensive pressure was almost certainly partially responsible so he’ll need to have adjusted his game to deal with that. If he struggles like that again then I think Painter should start taking minutes away with the depth on this team. I like Loyer but I do think he will need to figure out how avoid whatever issues caused his difficulty last year. Would love to see him shoot 38-40% from 3 and continue working on feeding the low post.

Fletch won’t be the first Boiler to turn it around if he makes a leap as a sophomore. For example, Dakota Mathias went from 32% as a freshman to 39%, 45%, and 47% over his next three seasons.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

That’s why I am not confident in a sophomore jump from him. He fell apart before I would have expected him to hit the freshman wall, it was mid season. He lost confidence, hesitated often, and form must have changed with the huge drop off. Increased physical defensive pressure was almost certainly partially responsible so he’ll need to have adjusted his game to deal with that. If he struggles like that again then I think Painter should start taking minutes away with the depth on this team. I like Loyer but I do think he will need to figure out how avoid whatever issues caused his difficulty last year. Would love to see him shoot 38-40% from 3 and continue working on feeding the low post.

I’m interested to see how he looks. If he avgs 0.5 more 3PM per game last year (roughly 15 more overall), he is shooting 40% from 3 and we aren’t worried (would have been top 3 with Funk and Lundy for B1G leaders last year). He also showed he could score in different ways and that he could knock down big shots—especially the one in Sparty land where student section was chanting that his brother was better haha. All that in his first year while being “ranked” outside the top 100. Maybe he did hit that wall or maybe he was a bit injured, but I got faith he will be a better shooter and scorer this year. Would be great if that defense improved too.

 

[northside100]

Might just be. Still not sure about TKR and Zach together in part because that leaves Furst/Gillis as the front off the bench and is that enough scoring? I really like Caleb and Trey together for a more athletic, running type of team, but Hey, whatever works. If TKR continues to look as he has so far, you have to get him on the floor and try to make it work UNLESS everyone else shoots lights out and makes another prime scorer less of a need.

Good points. I think for the most part Zach and Trey playing together.is part of solving for a math equation. Meaning Zach is going to play 30 minutes a game so the most that Trey and Caleb can play together is 10 minutes a game . If Matt wants to play Trey more minutes this year, he hast to be able to play him with Zach for some portion of that. Even if Trey starts, I don’t see him playing the most minutes with Zach. I estimate it breaks down as follows on average, although it will almost certainly vary based on matchups and who is playing well:

• Zach + Trey - 10mpg
• Zach + Mason - 15mpg
• Zach + Caleb - 5mpg
• Caleb + Trey -10 mpg

 

[SCBoiler1]

Fletch won’t be the first Boiler to turn it around if he makes a leap as a sophomore. For example, Dakota Mathias went from 32% as a freshman to 39%, 45%, and 47% over his next three seasons.

Like I said, I think he'll shoot better. We need him to shoot better. If he doesn't, I'm not sure we would have an answer. If not Loyer, I'm not sure who could be counted on to be that double digit scorer at the 2 or 3. Smith will do his thing but who else could be counted on to score out of the backcourt? Maybe Colvin?

Posters talk about guys doing the little things that don't show up in the stats (glue guys). We seem to have a lot of glue guys in the backcourt. Those guys can be valuable but having those glue guys in the lineup is predicated on the idea that you have 4 other guys to "glue together". Like I mentioned in the previous post we were getting about 12 points per game the second half of last year out of our starting 2 and 3 combined. With Edey, we'll still win a lot of games, but I believe how Loyer plays may determine our chances of making a run in March.

 

[SCBoiler1]

Good points. I think for the most part Zach and Trey playing together.is part of solving for a math equation. Meaning Zach is going to play 30 minutes a game so the most that Trey and Caleb can play together is 10 minutes a game . If Matt wants to play Trey more minutes this year, he hast to be able to play him with Zach for some portion of that. Even if Trey starts, I don’t see him playing the most minutes with Zach. I estimate it breaks down as follows on average, although it will almost certainly vary based on matchups and who is playing well:

• Zach + Trey - 10mpg
• Zach + Mason - 15mpg
• Zach + Caleb - 5mpg
• Caleb + Trey -10 mpg

I may be in the minority here but I haven't seen much to indicate that Trey has somehow transformed his game. To me it still looks like the most effective part of his game is backing guys down in the post.

The problem I see with your analysis is that I'm not sure Furst is always going to be a better combination with Trey than Gillis. It sounds like Trey is going to get every chance to get more minutes this year, that may be bad news for Furst.

 

[northside100]

I may be in the minority here but I haven't seen much to indicate that Trey has somehow transformed his game. To me it still looks like the most effective part of his game is backing guys down in the post.

The problem I see with your analysis is that I'm not sure Furst is always going to be a better combination with Trey than Gillis. It sounds like Trey is going to get every chance to get more minutes this year, that may be bad news for Furst.

I don’t think you’re in the minority in questioning how well the Trey / Zach combo will work. I have it down for 10 minutes but honestly have no idea if it will be 10 or 5. I do not think it will be zero.

I’m excited to see more of the Trey / Caleb combo and I think Mason pairs best with Zach but you're right, if Caleb / Mason or Trey / Mason works better that's likely to influence playing time.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I may be in the minority here but I haven't seen much to indicate that Trey has somehow transformed his game. To me it still looks like the most effective part of his game is backing guys down in the post.

The problem I see with your analysis is that I'm not sure Furst is always going to be a better combination with Trey than Gillis. It sounds like Trey is going to get every chance to get more minutes this year, that may be bad news for Furst.

Did you catch the scrimmage or any of the euro trip play by Trey?

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

Good points. I think for the most part Zach and Trey playing together.is part of solving for a math equation. Meaning Zach is going to play 30 minutes a game so the most that Trey and Caleb can play together is 10 minutes a game . If Matt wants to play Trey more minutes this year, he hast to be able to play him with Zach for some portion of that. Even if Trey starts, I don’t see him playing the most minutes with Zach. I estimate it breaks down as follows on average, although it will almost certainly vary based on matchups and who is playing well:

• Zach + Trey - 10mpg
• Zach + Mason - 15mpg
• Zach + Caleb - 5mpg
• Caleb + Trey -10 mpg

Pretty much has to be that way but it just isn't (seemingly) enough minutes for any of them in terms of what they are capable of. It's going to be difficult for them and fans. The one way that it could be "enough" is if they ran ran ran but that isn't going to happen (much) when you have Zach Edey. Here's hoping they all expend all their energy in those 15-20 minutes (30 for Zach). That would be a sight to see.

 

[SCBoiler1]

Did you catch the scrimmage or any of the euro trip play by Trey?

I did watch a couple of halves of the European Tour. TKR was great but he was great doing the things he did last year but better and more efficiently.

He may be able to play the 4 like Biggie played the 4 but he still seems the most comfortable backing guys down and scoring around the basket.

 

[Do Dah Day]

Someone good has to ride the bench...we only usually play 9 guys consistent minutes....you got loyer, Smith, and Jones at the 1 and 2....Colvin, Morton, and Waddell at the 3....heide, tkr, furst, Gillis at the 4....edey, furst, tkr, and Berg at the 5....you've got to knock off 3 guys there....Berg, Morton, and one of the forwards, furst, heide, Gillis will probably be out of the rotation....my guess is it will be the poorest shooter, probably furst...gonna be tough for painter but good for Purdue....these guys knew what they signed up for if Zach came back....I'm sure they'll put winning ahead of ego....

I feel strongly that it will be Furst.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I did watch a couple of halves of the European Tour. TKR was great but he was great doing the things he did last year but better and more efficiently.

He may be able to play the 4 like Biggie played the 4 but he still seems the most comfortable backing guys down and scoring around the basket.

I’ve said it before, but he was bringing the ball up full court at the scrimmage and he also drove to the hole multiple times, had a lot better footwork and was able to finish very well at the rim compared to the previous year. His outside shot takes a bit, so I would only expect him to shoot those if he is reaaaalllly wide open.

 

[northside100]

I’ve said it before, but he was bringing the ball up full court at the scrimmage and he also drove to the hole multiple times, had a lot better footwork and was able to finish very well at the rim compared to the previous year. His outside shot takes a bit, so I would only expect him to shoot those if he is reaaaalllly wide open.

I know I'm the minority and I may be dead wrong but the more I see the more I think that the heart of this team is going to be the two sophomores and a bunch of old guys.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I know I'm the minority and I may be dead wrong but the more I see the more I think that the heart of this team is going to be the two sophomores and a bunch of old guys.

TKR is a soph…. 😏 but I know what ya mean. However, I agree with you. It’s edey and smith’s team and if fletch can hit just half a 3ptr per game more than he did last year, we will be in good shape.

Here’s a write up on the scrimmages :

BoilerUpload - Matt Painter Has a Too Many Players Problem

Purdue's basketball squad is too full of talent, and

purdue.rivals.com

 

[northside100]

TKR is a soph…. 😏

Fair point, although he is a third year sophomore who is part of a three man rotation with a fifth year senior and a junior.

I don’t have premium access to read the full article but as we keep saying, it will be interesting to see how the wing spot shakes out. Seems like there are eight guys who are pretty locked in to get some level of mi utes at the 1/2 and 4/5.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Fair point, although he is a third year sophomore who is part of a three man rotation with a fifth year senior and a junior.

I don’t have premium access to read the full article but as we keep saying, it will be interesting to see how the wing spot shakes out. Seems like there are eight guys who are pretty locked in to get some level of mi utes at the 1/2 and 4/5.

Oh didn’t think I had premium access 😂 and I put 😏 after TKR because of him being a RS
Soph haha.

Article echoed what Reese had mentioned. Morton looked like a diff player (in a good way)…maybe you are right about him ( 😮 ) haha. Colvin struggled shooting, fletch shot it well….lance was 4/10 from 3. TKR and Edey played well together…from the article it said Zach fed a slashing TKR when double teamed. But of course none matters until we see it all unfolding in regular season.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Oh didn’t think I had premium access 😂 and I put 😏 after TKR because of him being a RS
Soph haha.

Article echoed what Reese had mentioned. Morton looked like a diff player (in a good way)…maybe you are right about him ( 😮 ) haha. Colvin struggled shooting, fletch shot it well….lance was 4/10 from 3. TKR and Edey played well together…from the article it said Zach fed a slashing TKR when double teamed. But of course none matters until we see it all unfolding in regular season.

I'm not falling for this, Ed......where's my car? Haha.