Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Tonight, it's the #7-ranked Purdue Boilermakers (17-5; 9-2) back on the road again visiting Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (13-8; 4-6). Tip is set for approximately 7:00 pm (Eastern time) with television coverage on Peacock. This will be the only regular season meeting between the teams.
Projected Starting Line-ups:
Purdue - Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst, CJ Cox, Fletcher Loyer, and Braden Smith
Iowa - Riley Mulvey (replacing Owen Freeman), Payton Sandfort, Josh Dix, Brock Harding, and Drew Thelwell
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Iowa has dropped four of its last five games, including a 82-65 defeat at Ohio State last week. The Buckeyes led by as many as 25 points and never trailed by more than two, shooting 48 percent from the field. Iowa was held to 39 percent shooting, including 7-for-25 (28%) from three-point range. Sophomore forward Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 1.8 BPG) has led the Hawkeyes this season, but unfortunately he was just ruled out for the remainder of the season with a finger injury, for which he had surgery. Iowa has a few others who will try to pick up the slack with Freeman's absence. Purdue will need to keep an eye on senior forward Payton Sandfort (16.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG), junior guard Josh Dix (13.3 PPG and 3.0 APG) and senior guard Drew Thelwell (10.7 PPG, 3.1 APG and 2.0 SPG), who are all more than capable of getting hot and providing extra scoring punch. Sandfort had 30 against Nebraska and followed that up with 23 in a win against Indiana. Dix had 31 against Nebraska and 19 at UCLA. And Thelwell had 25 points and 20 points, respectively, in the losses at Wisconsin and Ohio State. With Freeman out, they may go to a smaller line-up at times and really push the pace, which is already up-tempo most of the time.
Iowa is currently rated 65th overall in KenPom, 28th in offensive efficiency and 153rd in defensive efficiency. Adjusted tempo rating has them playing at a rather quick pace, 29th. The Hawkeyes average 85.7 points (5th nationally) and shoot 50.0 percent (3rd), including 38.6 percent from three (17th). Defensively, they surrender 78.5 points per game (332nd) and their opponents shoot 47.7 percent (348th) with a 32.6 three-point mark (150th).
Purdue is currently rated 8th overall in KenPom, 10th offensively and 30th defensively. Adjusted tempo rating has the Boilers at 290th.
Purdue will have to pick its spots this game with the pace. There will be opportunities in transition, and perhaps that may help with some of the long-range shooting woes, but it could also play into Iowa's game plan. They will absolutely need to execute well in the half court and continue to limit the turnovers. From Coach Matt Painter - "
You can't turn the ball over, take bad shots and let them play in transition. When they get in transition, they are very dangerous. Anytime they have lulls, you'll see Fran really encourage them to get the ball moving, get up the floor and be more aggressive."
Even though Freeman is out, expect Purdue to go about its gameplan the same way. Also from Matt Painter - "
They're at their best when they're aggressive shooting threes, driving the ball, making the right plays. They have so many different weapons, so many different guys that can shoot threes......
You prepare the same way, because their style doesn't change. Obviously, he [Freeman] puts a burden on things because of the way he runs the floor, the way he plays out of ball screens — he can put the ball on the floor, he can do a lot of different things."
This is a quintessential trap game for Purdue. They are coming off two big home wins against Michigan and Indiana and have climbed within a half-game of conference leader, Michigan State. Iowa has hit a rough patch and just lost their most productive player who could put pressure on the opposing defense. However, the Hawkeyes can still score and can really get hot from outside, especially at home. Purdue has been on the short end of a few of those against Fran McCaffery's teams. Purdue has also been less than stellar, and that's putting it mildly, from long range recently, especially on the road. The Boilers' freshman have been coming along, but they still have been inconsistent on the road. Like facing a wounded animal, they have to be ready for the Hawkeye's best shot and an inspired team at home as an underdog. The Boilers need a superior mental mindset to tough another one out on the road.
This is also a game where Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer will have to lead by example, and Purdue's defense will need to continue it's improved play. It's a particular challenge this evening because Iowa does not usually turn the ball over. The other challenge will be for Purdue to be patient at the right times and play the possession game with Iowa in the half court. They have the edge there, but they will definitely have to knock down some shots, and it would be a refreshing sight if Myles Colvin and Cam Heide could provide some of that relief.
Can the Boilers keep things rolling to stay near the top of the conference standings? Or, will the Hawkeyes get a much needed win over a contender to boost their post-season chances?
We shall see, coming up in a few hours or so.
Boiler up, my friends.
