Will Heide displace Loyer in the long run?
- Thread starter Schmedly_Whiplash
- Start date
If others can shoot a high volume of 3s, take it to the hole, hit big shots and shoot FTs better than Fletch, then I’m all in cuz that means they’d be averaging more than 11 a game (last year) and at 8 right now. Haven’t seen that yet though.
I have been a huge Fletcher fan from day 1, but he struggled himself against big ten competition. Lance has more experience, so I wouldn't say for sure Fletcher would start every game.
TWIN TOWERS !!!
Which recent NCAA game did we lose because we were too small at the 3 spot?
We don't need him to score a lot. (Jone) I'll be glad when Matt's got the light turned on with him and he stops taking the 25'rs. But his speed and D are game changers and at times will be invaluable. There are plenty of Big10 guys that that if they get going early they're going to hurt you all night. Now we have someone to slow them down and make them really work. Something we have NOT had the past 2 seasons when Ethan was the best we had to throw at unstoppable scorers. We haven't seen that factor much yet but come Big 10 it will show up and be a very large factor. JMO
I will never buy into the theory that college age players get worn down. At that age they can play every day and still have lots of energy
Hmmm. When you make the jump from high school where you play a max 2 games a week to college where the competition and physicality is way more than anything experienced in high school or aau, you therefore use more energy. You’re also playing 2-3 games a week plus traveling around and not getting the best sleep since you’re staying in hotels…oh and taking college level courses where you’re expected to pass (unless your a one and done), I’d say that would be understandable for an 18 year old kid to hit a wall/get worn down. After the Frosh year, I don’t expect any kid to be worn down since they’d have a year to adjust.
Mental exhaustion from practice with coaches on top of a MMA B10 schedule the refs make a free for all.....yea all that is a grind.
plus 10 feet on the court. The intensity level is much higher than high school. Each game is like two games since they are expected to play D at a much higher level...and each game is like 5 quarters (40 minutes instead of 32). It is tough on players especially freshman handling so many things with much higher expectations
Exactly. Just cuz you’re 18 doesn’t mean you can play for days. The conditioning these guys have to be in is crazy and way more than any high school sport they played.
It's a narrative that's been developed on this board to explain Loyer's poor shooting the second half of the season. Loyer had only played 18 college games in 2 1/2 months (app 2 per week) prior to his "slump".
They group his poor shooting in with Smith's "struggles" to develop a narrative. The problem is that Smith played just as well in the second half of the season as he did the first. He had a couple of bad games to end the season but in the 10 previous games he averages 11.2 points and 4.1 assists and 1.9 turnovers in 32 minutes a game. In those 10 games he shot 48% from the field and over 42% from 3. Those averages are in line with his season totals.
I think Loyer is a good player and will start until he is displaced, It would probably take a combination of a few losses, poor shooting on his part, and someone stepping up their game over several games, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Good forthright analysis. Not sure losses will have to occur. But if he puts up more sub 6 pt games than double digits and CMP sees he has options....a switch could happen. But I hope he does well and shows off his skill out West.
I have to believe Loyer is a better shooter than what he showed last year. If for no other reason than the trust Painter appears to have in him. IMO if he can hit around 35% or better from 3, he'll keep his spot in the lineup but if he doesn't it appears we may have some options.
I think so too. Hope he shows off his skill well this season. Not only, 35% is something to watch....but shot attempts or just scoring production per game. Got to show up.... the 2 pts in 27 minutes vs Morehead was unacceptable.....by player & coach alike.
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I said the same thing for many years.
Until we ALL could see with our own eyes that Flether AND Braden were both whipped end of last season.
Then I stopped saying that.
I think a lot of the difference is exercising to exhaustion day after day. FINE line from maximum fitness to over trained and weakening. These kids are on the go a big chunk of the day in much more active ways than hs and working exponentially harder in practice and the weight room (never forget the weight room time). Throw in bugs (illness) and most freshmen get sick more than they did previously when mom was cooking and making sure you went to bed. etc etc
Tremendous difference in intensity and pace in the games.
This isn't the all day in the gym pickup games that these kids Could all run all day long.
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What evidence do you have that Braden was wipped? He had two sub-par games at the end of the season. One was with 4 days rest (Sunday to Friday). Braden was arguably better the second half of the season than the first half.
You may argue Braden was spent in the last game due to constant on ball pressure but that is different than the cumulative wear and tear of a long freshman season because in games 25 through 34 he was playing at a pretty high level.
Actually there is no narrative to be developed. The longitudinal data over many players on many teams over many seasons indicate that the immature bodies of freshman if playing a lot of minutes take a beating. Many times it is jump shots due to the legs having to work so much on D compared to what the players did in high school. I actually mentioned this to Braden's father before his first Purdue game. Numbers as you show may be indicative for a good start on a hypothesis to be studied such as how do we measure fatigue and /or nagging injuries and totals as you show are a good start...assuming the data of the whole season is similar to the first half...not just in results, but in opportunities shots taken, same distance and under similar D as much as possible. However, it is entirely possible that the data you used is accurate and truly reflective of your stance of no significance difference with probably less significance interest statistically and just a general ballgame approach. It certainly is worth the question...are you sure there was fatigue that led a decline in performance for Fletcher and Braden because the data you stated never showed such. What would also be interesting data is asking current and past players that played a lot as a freshman if they believed they wore down over the season as well as how many coaches shorten practice as the season goes on trying to save legs while sacrificing some practice
However as your data indicates that fatigue was not in play as your data suggests if I understand correctly, you don't believe there was a change in effectiveness and/or if there was a change in effectiveness it was not a change in Fletcher/Braden but as the scouting report got better on Fletcher and Braden and that their improvement (Braden/Fletcher) was masked by improved D by the other teams balancing it out. Is that what you are stating...as other teams improved through the season as teams and those teams improved specifically with a thicker scouting report on Fletcher and Braden that their improvement was no better in the second half than the first half since they were better studied? Too many confounding variables for me to have a good feel, but you pose a good question.
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Actually the medical physiology of how bodies react to high levels of stress over extended periods (similar to endurance athletes) lends credence to players developing a degree of chronic fatigue or becoming more easily fatigued. Lots of factors have to be managed to maintain optimal performance and it’s not hard to imagine teenage boys not following all the guidance because of the fact that they are teenage boys are indeed invincible LOL.
Eugene Parker was the best high school shooter I ever saw personally. He was NEVER the same shooter at Purdue and totally blamed it on the legs being gone from working on D so hard.
Especially in Matt Painter's systems, which require a certain level of preparation and mental focus for optimum execution, IMO.
...and Purdue adds to that mental fatigue. Most of us can recall the reduced pressure for that week or so between semesters when the finals were completed.
Not all freshmen are created equal. Loyer may have been worn down but there is an assumption by many that Smith did is well.
There is no data that needs to be analyzed other than a review of Smith's play and his stats over the second half of the year. Smith was performing at an extremely high level prior to the last 2 games of the year. All you need to do is go look at the stats. There was no trend of poorer play over the second half of the year. In fact his stats were better against arguably better talent the second half of the year. In the third to last game of the year he scored 14 points, was 5 for 5 from the field including 3 for 3 from three, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and 1 turnover. He scored 15 points two games earlier.
There is no data that needs to be analyzed other than a review of Smith's play and his stats over the second half of the year. Smith was performing at an extremely high level prior to the last 2 games of the year. All you need to do is go look at the stats. There was no trend of poorer play over the second half of the year. In fact his stats were better against arguably better talent the second half of the year. In the third to last game of the year he scored 14 points, was 5 for 5 from the field including 3 for 3 from three, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and 1 turnover. He scored 15 points two games earlier.
thats what I just typed before reading this much more technical version.
Well done.
After reading your post again, I think we may agree more than we disagree.
It may well be that Loyer's production decreased due to the wear and tear of the college game and the longer season, but there really isn't a way to say with any certainty that it was the cause of his decline in effectiveness.
As you can probably tell by my other posts my issue isn't whether the long season impacted Loyer, but my problem is that people keep asserting that Smith played poorly over an extended period of time near the end of the year. He didn't.
I agree. The so-called narative of freshmen hitting the wall has been discussed for decades by teams who rely on freshmen. Purdue fans did not invent the concept on this board. I wouldn't be surprised if statistics showed that B1G freshmen are affected more than freshmen in other conferences because of the physicality.
After watching the much hyped Purdue team of the late 70’s not come close to their preseason predictions Because they had too many guards and bozos taking perimeter shots rather than just feeding Joe Barry and being aggressive getting offensive rebounds!
One area that always bothered me is too many players either just stand there and watch their 3 point shot or they take the shot and run back on defense. And nobody ever follows up on their shot to get the offensive rebound . They just believe the shot will go in or that our center will be able to collect every missed shot. I look at the bulls championship teams! They always had two guys in the paint grabbing the offensive rebounds. They didn’t have 4 perimeter shooters. They just allowed their guards and pollen to take more shots. And guys like Rodman and grant and Cartwright and the other grant would be in the paint.
How about the last 4 ncaa tournament games where our 3 couldn’t make a shot? A talker 3 might have driven more to the basket, grabbed more rebounds rather than firing up air balls from the perimeter. If we had a taller 3, we would also play a different style of game. What’s wrong with having a twin towers?
Almost think "following your shot" is archaic thinking, Wole. If a guard does this, it seems to unbalance the floor and the way the game is played today, if the guard (or forward) is out of position, moving toward his basket, it leads to a fast break the other way.
Anyway, can we finally lose the love for Loyer? A good player that the scouting report caught up to. I'll second Wole's assertion that he might be a nice spark off the bench. 0 field goals and 2 measly points from a 3 doesn't cut it.
I still love the guy, but relieve some pressure by making him the designated zone- buster/ late game FT maker off the bench.
When we play really athletic teams, he looks like I did on court 1 at the CoRec back in the day. Little bit out of his league.
and had super dumb turnovers... like letting the ball hit him in the head ... or telegraphing a stupid pass to give up an easy dunk... Kid was basketball dumb...
Anyone with eyes can see that he still struggles not being overmatched physically. He gets knocked down frequently, can't finish against bigger or better athletes and doesn't gain us anything on the glass or defensively other than "smart" plays. Now it seems like he might be pressing a bit when he finally does shake free and get a shot off. He's not the first and won't be last that struggles with the amazing athletes out there at every level these days. I still think his time comes and everyone loves him, but it might be the next 2 years.
Heide is ahead of Colvin in the rest of the game, but man that kid can shoot it.
I think we saw the first evidence of a blowing wind of change.
Come on man. Painters system is no more technical or sophisticated than any other system.
100%. People keep saying how talented he is, what a great shooter he is……Well, if you can hit shots in a game, then you’re not that good of a shooter. Period.
Haha, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Not saying it's right or the most complex.....but there's a lot of stuff to be in sync on both ends of the floor, IMO......but hey, maybe I'm way off base.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family, Lenny.
Technical or sophisticated are nuanced enough that it is hard to agree or disagree with "sophisticated". We do know that "sets" are less technical and sophisticated than full motion. However, the clock for the most part I think eliminates motion 100% to something less due to the clock all game. STill, those sets come with reads and so it is just the general starting movement of the set that may differ from full motion I believe. All that said...many players and commentators have stated the massive numbers of sets Purdue has and so that number alone makes it a bit more technical and sophisticated. I think dribble drive...dribble drive with location replacement is simpler as is pushing the ball. There it is more about the players I believe. When Jones gets the ball at half court and races down for a layup, the only sophistication was for Braden to see that and get him the ball early in the half court. Take away the shot clock and let coaches coach the talent they have how they want and the technicality and sophistication differences will be much more obvious. When the rules try to make the game more one dimensional stacked with more similar player attributes, then the differences are more blurred IMOHaha, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Not saying it's right or the most complex.....but there's a lot of stuff to be in sync on both ends of the floor, IMO......but hey, maybe I'm way off base.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family, Lenny.
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Add to this that every "set" has multiple options based on what the D gives and takes away. In true motion offense, there is no set that runs from beginning to end in the same way. Nothing should be forced
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