I do not see why you said that. You are attempting to extrapolate a regression to the mean, or so it seems. The problem with that is that the mean was based upon a different set of conditions (lesser 3 pt distance and quality of defensive opponents) than he faces now. As such, the ability to project back to the mean is invalid because the mean was established in a different set of data.
I’m not saying it’s a mathematical certainty by any means. The difference between the high school and college 3 pt line is one foot. Langford routinely shot from well beyond the line in high school, so that one foot is irrelevant IMO. MaxPreps shows Langford’s career 3 point percentage in HS as 35% and he’s currently shooting 25%. He also basically has a boxer’s wrap on his shooting hand. Do I think he’ll end up at 35%? Probably not. Do I think he’ll drop below 25%? Also, no.
That said, I think the 3 pt aspect of the conversation is inconsequential because he doesn’t attempt very many threes. My main argument for him maintaining his output is the fact that he’s averaged those numbers in single halves and he has just recently started to assert himself. He has been very passive at times this season and I think he’s starting to realize he can take over college games.
As far as the quality of defensive opponents, well, I don’t think that really matters either. He might encounter the occasional defender that will give him problems, but I think that’ll be rare. At this point (and I know it’s early), I haven’t seen a single defender that has prevented him from getting his shot at will. He just hasn’t shot a particularly high percentage.
Basically, he has struggled and still averages 18 a game.
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