The man has no honor

[LedZep17]

Better keep your protest signs after November Bob

Poll: Trump and Biden are tied in battleground Florida

Biden overperforms with seniors but lags with Latinos in the key battleground state according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.

www.nbcnews.com

TMW... you realize Biden can take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all where he is up right now... and Florida and Ohio won't even matter.

 

[PurduePete98]

Better keep your protest signs after November Bob

Poll: Trump and Biden are tied in battleground Florida

Biden overperforms with seniors but lags with Latinos in the key battleground state according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.

www.nbcnews.com

The best part is that we haven't even gotten to the debates yet.... lol.

 

[BSIT]

"Good god man, you talk about and think about Trump more than 95% of his supporters!"

LOL, is that better than being accused of being in the top 5% that supposedly doesn't pay its fair share? TIC

 

[atlboiler2156]

LOL, is that better than being accused of being in the top 5% that supposedly doesn't pay its fair share? TIC

"next question"

 

[PurduePete98]

TMW... you realize Biden can take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all where he is up right now... and Florida and Ohio won't even matter.

We haven't even gotten to the debates yet, and Trump is already closing the gap. The country will see how much brain Biden has left when he goes up against Trump for 2.5 hours 3 times.

 

[LedZep17]

We haven't even gotten to the debates yet, and Trump is already closing the gap. The country will see how much brain Biden has left when he goes up against Trump for 2.5 hours 3 times.

Sure he is. Get to practicing your "It was rigged!" fuss now. And also, I think I'm looking forward to the debates more than you

 

[TheGunner]

TMW... you realize Biden can take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all where he is up right now... and Florida and Ohio won't even matter.

I realize that. Do you realize that Biden had a five point margin in TX, FL and NC and those leads have evaporated?

Do you also realize that Trumps is now closer to carrying the states you listed than in 2016?

Your worst nightmare is unfolding right before your very eyes and it’s going to be because your so called racist president (your party’s words not mine) will carry a larger black vote than in 2016. What does that say about your party and Uncle Joe?

The 2020 black vote = the 2016 misstep from Hils in MI, WI and PA

 

[BSIT]

I realize that. Do you realize that Biden had a five point margin in TX, FL and NC and those leads have evaporated?

Do you also realize that Trumps is now closer to carrying the states you listed than in 2016?

Your worst nightmare is unfolding right before your very eyes and it’s going to be because your so called racist president (your party’s words not mine) will carry a larger black vote than in 2016. What does that say about your party and Uncle Joe?

The 2020 black vote = the 2016 misstep from Hils in MI, WI and PA

Don't forget Minnesota. Trump can win this one too

 

[TheGunner]

Don't forget Minnesota. Trump can win this one too

Im waiting for Trump to carry Oregon and Washington...that would shake the blue party.

 

[PurduePete98]

Sure he is. Get to practicing your "It was rigged!" fuss now. And also, I think I'm looking forward to the debates more than you

I don't need a "It was rigged" line. The election is a win/win for me (and all conservatives). There is zero chance Republicans lose control of the Senate, so the House and their puppet can pass legislature only to see it die in the Senate. We Republicans would get to stand by and say "This is all Biden's fault". The media driven Covid frenzy would end, so we could get back on with our lives. No conservative Justice is close to death, so we would maintain our majority there.

Now, the more likely thing to occur is that Trump wins. In which case, we can continue building the US to what it was becoming pre-covid.

I'm not sure why any Biden supporter would be excited to watch the debates. But then again, Libtards gonna Libtard.

 

[BSIT]

I don't need a "It was rigged" line. The election is a win/win for me (and all conservatives). There is zero chance Republicans lose control of the Senate, so the House and their puppet can pass legislature only to see it die in the Senate. We Republicans would get to stand by and say "This is all Biden's fault". The media driven Covid frenzy would end, so we could get back on with our lives. No conservative Justice is close to death, so we would maintain our majority there.

Now, the more likely thing to occur is that Trump wins. In which case, we can continue building the US to what it was becoming pre-covid.

I'm not sure why any Biden supporter would be excited to watch the debates. But then again, Libtards gonna Libtard.

We may get SALT if Biden wins. That would be the only advantage for me

 

[LedZep17]

I don't need a "It was rigged" line. The election is a win/win for me (and all conservatives). There is zero chance Republicans lose control of the Senate, so the House and their puppet can pass legislature only to see it die in the Senate. We Republicans would get to stand by and say "This is all Biden's fault". The media driven Covid frenzy would end, so we could get back on with our lives. No conservative Justice is close to death, so we would maintain our majority there.

Now, the more likely thing to occur is that Trump wins. In which case, we can continue building the US to what it was becoming pre-covid.

I'm not sure why any Biden supporter would be excited to watch the debates. But then again, Libtards gonna Libtard.

That's a lot of imaginary CYA you're doing. Zero chance about the Senate huh? Senate will be interesting. Going 50-50 in the Senate isn't a stretch at all. No matter what we'll all have fun revisiting this. I'm sure this thread will still be active then anyway.

 

[PurduePete98]

That's a lot of imaginary CYA you're doing. Zero chance about the Senate huh? Senate will be interesting. Going 50-50 in the Senate isn't a stretch at all. No matter what we'll all have fun revisiting this. I'm sure this thread will still be active then anyway.

Yes, there is no chance Dems get it to 50/50.

 

[LedZep17]

LP has their foot on the gas. Swing-state ad.

 

[tsmatthias]

A former classmate and veteran goes on record about Trump and his time at military school. There's a pattern and a long history as the pieces come together.

Trump Has Mocked the U.S. Military His Whole Life

Egged on by his father, the U.S. president began expressing contempt for Americans who fight in wars as far back as high school, his classmates…

foreignpolicy.com

 

[LedZep17]

A former classmate and veteran goes on record about Trump and his time at military school. There's a pattern and a long history as the pieces come together.

Trump Has Mocked the U.S. Military His Whole Life

Egged on by his father, the U.S. president began expressing contempt for Americans who fight in wars as far back as high school, his classmates…

foreignpolicy.com

That was extremely well written and very telling.

“Trump was over-privileged,” White said. “His father was rich, and he was protected. His father always considered him a genius. Trump was developing this alternative reality even then, and it was allowed to flourish because he was allowed to by the school supervisors. They directly ordered me to stay away from Trump. Everybody knew Fred was pulling out his checkbook.”

Daddy told him was a genius and paid other people to do the same thing. The alternative reality at even that point then really does explain it all. He was conditioned to always think he was better, smarter, richer, etc.. and all he had to do to back it up was bullshit and then run down other people if they questioned it... because Daddy was pulling all the levers in the background.

The last paragraph:

“It’s real simple. His grandfather dodged the draft in Germany and his father never went in. And when I came back from Korea, in 1972, I ran into him in New York City and told him where I’d been, he didn’t give a flying ripshit that I’d been to Korea. He made barfing noises,” White said. “I said, ‘Holy shit, you are a piece of work.’”

 

[PA Boilermakers]

IMO he squandered that opportunity in his first 2 yrs of office when he had control of both houses. That was the time to pass the infrastructure bill. He was too busy fussing and fighting with his opponents acting unpresidential.

Paul Ryan was certainly not an ally of President Trump and in my humble opinion will go down as one of the least effective house speakers in modern history

 

[Fansince72]

Paul Ryan was certainly not an ally of President Trump and in my humble opinion will go down as one of the least effective house speakers in modern history

Paul Ryan was the one who authored the tax overhaul bill, not DJT. And, I might add, got it passed. So maybe you could give him just a little bit of credit?

 

[Sophie1970]

1. You are completely wrong here. There have been 307 miles of wall built during Trump's time in office. A large portion of that was rebuilding the existing wall which was falling down. No, it can't be easily climbed or tunneled under. Illegal border crossings are down 84% this year, so the Trump administration has been highly successful in border security.

That isn't just the wall. Trump also put enough pressure on Mexico, which gave in and sent 15k troops to protect the border from the Mexican side. Trump also sent 15k US national guard to help protect the border as well.

BTW, Mexico IS paying for the wall. The new trade deal saves the US 68 billion. The wall will only cost 22 billion. Thank you Mr. President.

2. This is a completely embarrassing take for you. People making over 500k got a 2.6% tax cut. People making between 40k-86k got a 3% tax cut. People making between 84k-160k got a 4% tax break.

So people making between 40k-160k each got a bigger tax break than those making 500k+. You state those making between 50k-100k only got 1k taken off their taxes. You are very wrong (no one is shocked that you don't know the facts). People making 50k saved $1,500 in taxes. People making 100k saved $4,000 in taxes.

If you don't like how much you make, maybe try getting up into the next few tax brackets. The best thing about capitalism is anyone can become a millionaire. Maybe you made some poor decisions in your life, or haven't worked hard enough to be in those tax brackets.

Regardless, Trump promised tax cuts across the board, and he delivered.

3. As with all regulations, they are political, so I'm sure since you are a libtard, you don't like what Trump has repealed, or put in place. I hated what Obama put in place, and am glad to see the majority of it gone. Regardless, he delivered on his promise concerning regulations. The less the government gets involved, the better.

4. Once again you show your ignorance. The court correctly ruled that the President doesn't have 100% immunity in state criminal cases. In the case of the LGBTQ, they defectors followed the law as it was written while acknowledging that when the law was written, the sex discrimination law was written for a biological man and woman (because the other terms hadn't been made up yet). John Roberts is the only conservative dissenter in most rules that aren't passed.

Regardless, Trump promised to place YOUNG conservatives on the bench, and he did just that. When he gets re-elected he will place a 3rd and maybe 4th young conservative on the bench as well.

5. When you say Trump/Barr want to send them back to prison, are you referring to the rioters/looters in the streets? Provide proof on the rest of your claims.

We have a winner! Great job laying it out there for the libs that aren’t aware enough of what’s actually happening.

 

[Sophie1970]

TMW... you realize Biden can take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all where he is up right now... and Florida and Ohio won't even matter.

Biden won’t even take Minnesota let alone the aforementioned. Dudes telling people to show up to vote in the December elections. It’s sad how he’s become a puppet of the left.

 

[TheCainer]

We have a winner! Great job laying it out there for the libs that aren’t aware enough of what’s actually happening.

Just when does that Mexican check clear the bank again?

 

[PurduePete98]

Just when does that Mexican check clear the bank again?

As I pointed out, Mexico will be paying us 68 billion more thanks to the new trade deal. The wall only costs 21 billion.

 

[Sophie1970]

Just when does that Mexican check clear the bank again?

It’s happening daily with the new trade deal and decreased illegal immigration. Think it through, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you can figure out how less illegal immigration helps with municipalities handouts from healthcare, housing, taxes etc...doesn’t even take an engineering or business degree to figure out either.

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

Better keep your protest signs after November Bob

Poll: Trump and Biden are tied in battleground Florida

Biden overperforms with seniors but lags with Latinos in the key battleground state according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.

www.nbcnews.com

Not saying it is not a good bit of news for Trump, but it is not exactly game changing. The Cuban and Venezuelan communities in South Florida are historically much more conservative than Latinos generally, and the administration's efforts on Cuba and Venezuela have moved the needle even more in its favor with both groups. Plus, the Cubans are a proven voting block, but the Venezuelan community has less of a track record so may not show up on election day. Second, Joe can afford to loose Florida and still have multiple paths to the presidency. If Trump looses Florida, his road to winning is much narrower and effectively non-existent if he looses Pennsylvania too. As such, Joe really only needs one of Florida or Pennsylvania whereas Trump realistically needs both. Last, Bloomberg is dropping $100mm in Florida, which is almost certainly going to move the needle. Trump is not only cash poor in his campaign but the super PACs supporting him have not shown up at the same levels as 2016 (probably not the best idea to get in a p*ssing match with Sheldon Adelson right before the election), which will make it hard to combat Bloomberg's efforts.

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

I don't need a "It was rigged" line. The election is a win/win for me (and all conservatives). There is zero chance Republicans lose control of the Senate, so the House and their puppet can pass legislature only to see it die in the Senate. We Republicans would get to stand by and say "This is all Biden's fault". The media driven Covid frenzy would end, so we could get back on with our lives. No conservative Justice is close to death, so we would maintain our majority there.

Now, the more likely thing to occur is that Trump wins. In which case, we can continue building the US to what it was becoming pre-covid.

I'm not sure why any Biden supporter would be excited to watch the debates. But then again, Libtards gonna Libtard.

Yeah, I think Mitch McConnell would disagree with you on the senate being safe. He did not tell his caucus that it was free to distance itself from the president because he thinks they have a lock. There is zero chance the dems are not going to get a filibuster proof majority, however. The Cook Political Report which has a pretty good track record has the dems taking the senate largely because of what seats are up this cycle which favors the dems.

For all the references to polls, I do not think I have seen anyone cite the USC poll which was right in 2016 but largely ignored because it uses a new methodology. It still has the race going for Biden outside the margin of error with a bit of bouncing around in margin the last few days.

USC Dornsife - Election 2020 | Understanding America Study

election.usc.edu

 

[TheGunner]

Not saying it is not a good bit of news for Trump, but it is not exactly game changing. The Cuban and Venezuelan communities in South Florida are historically much more conservative than Latinos generally, and the administration's efforts on Cuba and Venezuela have moved the needle even more in its favor with both groups. Plus, the Cubans are a proven voting block, but the Venezuelan community has less of a track record so may not show up on election day. Second, Joe can afford to loose Florida and still have multiple paths to the presidency. If Trump looses Florida, his road to winning is much narrower and effectively non-existent if he looses Pennsylvania too. As such, Joe really only needs one of Florida or Pennsylvania whereas Trump realistically needs both. Last, Bloomberg is dropping $100mm in Florida, which is almost certainly going to move the needle. Trump is not only cash poor in his campaign but the super PACs supporting him have not shown up at the same levels as 2016 (probably not the best idea to get in a p*ssing match with Sheldon Adelson right before the election), which will make it hard to combat Bloomberg's efforts.

I don’t disagree with the above analysis, but if Trump turns 15% of the 2.6MM Latino voters from the 2016 race, I’m not sure Bloomberg can save Biden in Florida. And it appears the Latino vote is a growing concern elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/latino-groups-warn-that-bidens-sluggish-outreach-could-have-devastating-results/2020/09/13/82dab318-f44b-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html

 

[BSIT]

I don’t disagree with the above analysis, but if Trump turns 15% of the 2.6MM Latino voters from the 2016 race, I’m not sure Bloomberg can save Biden in Florida. And it appears the Latino vote is a growing concern elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/latino-groups-warn-that-bidens-sluggish-outreach-could-have-devastating-results/2020/09/13/82dab318-f44b-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html

And the Black vote as well. Trump has been making great progress with both and the James race in Michigan could be telling. IMO Arizona and Colorado are the Republicans greatest risk but I think they will take Alabama and possibly Michigan

 

[TheGunner]

And the Black vote as well. Trump has been making great progress with both and the James race in Michigan could be telling. IMO Arizona and Colorado are the Republicans greatest risk but I think they will take Alabama and possibly Michigan

I hear Trump is going to ask LA republicans to temporarily relocate to Ehrenburg or Parker, AZ for 45 days

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

I don’t disagree with the above analysis, but if Trump turns 15% of the 2.6MM Latino voters from the 2016 race, I’m not sure Bloomberg can save Biden in Florida. And it appears the Latino vote is a growing concern elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/latino-groups-warn-that-bidens-sluggish-outreach-could-have-devastating-results/2020/09/13/82dab318-f44b-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html

Don't disagree that Biden has some issues that need to be addressed, and Latinos are generally more socially conservative which makes them a better fit with the GOP than the Dems who they have generally supported since W. However, I think the narrative that African Americans and Latinos are breaking for Trump is a bit oversold. Most of the polls I have seen show a couple points and generally in a single poll not movement from a defined sample over time, which suggests it may simply be sampling bias. Not saying it is not happening, but the data set is not sufficient yet to be comfortable. If the trend continues through and after the first debate which is historically when moderates and undecideds start to firm up their support it will be a bigger issue. The fact Joe has millions more on hand and much more active super PAC spending is going to be very hard to overcome; especially, because the media has so far not given the Trump campaign all the earned advertising it provided last time by covering his rallies live. Without the free advertising and with limited cash to deploy, Trump would appear to have an uphill battle over the last ~50 days. Not saying he cannot do it, but if you look at VIX futures expiring around the election and the movement in options contracts related to businesses in industries that are expected to benefit or be hurt by a Biden administration, Wall Street seems to be deploying capital based on the expectation of a Biden win.

 

[TheGunner]

Don't disagree that Biden has some issues that need to be addressed, and Latinos are generally more socially conservative which makes them a better fit with the GOP than the Dems who they have generally supported since W. However, I think the narrative that African Americans and Latinos are breaking for Trump is a bit oversold. Most of the polls I have seen show a couple points and generally in a single poll not movement from a defined sample over time, which suggests it may simply be sampling bias. Not saying it is not happening, but the data set is not sufficient yet to be comfortable. If the trend continues through and after the first debate which is historically when moderates and undecideds start to firm up their support it will be a bigger issue. The fact Joe has millions more on hand and much more active super PAC spending is going to be very hard to overcome; especially, because the media has so far not given the Trump campaign all the earned advertising it provided last time by covering his rallies live. Without the free advertising and with limited cash to deploy, Trump would appear to have an uphill battle over the last ~50 days. Not saying he cannot do it, but if you look at VIX futures expiring around the election and the movement in options contracts related to businesses in industries that are expected to benefit or be hurt by a Biden administration, Wall Street seems to be deploying capital based on the expectation of a Biden win.

I have little doubt that Wall Street is betting on Biden. That seems to be the smart money today, but Wall Street was wrong in 2016 so I have less faith in their ability to predict elections.

This election gets interesting if COVID continues to fall and more things start opening up, with B1G football another topic of political discussion.

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

And the Black vote as well. Trump has been making great progress with both and the James race in Michigan could be telling. IMO Arizona and Colorado are the Republicans greatest risk but I think they will take Alabama and possibly Michigan

AZ and CO are almost certainly going to go against the GOP. McSally and Gardner are both not particularly popular in their respective states and both are facing well liked opponents. McSally is an unforced error and down to the dunce who is the governor of Arizona. She lost to a Dem with some libertarian/conservative leanings but also some pretty progressive views in a state that has historically been friendly to the GOP. Why she was appointed to McCain's seat shortly after loosing a race she should have easily won is a major strategic error and opened the door for Mark Kelly who is similar to Sinema in a lot of ways but with better initial name recognition to take the seat.

Where it is going to get interesting is Maine and Montana, which are both races where the Dems have a good chance of picking up seats that were GOP lean or solid GOP a year ago.

 

[PurduePete98]

Not saying it is not a good bit of news for Trump, but it is not exactly game changing. The Cuban and Venezuelan communities in South Florida are historically much more conservative than Latinos generally, and the administration's efforts on Cuba and Venezuela have moved the needle even more in its favor with both groups. Plus, the Cubans are a proven voting block, but the Venezuelan community has less of a track record so may not show up on election day. Second, Joe can afford to loose Florida and still have multiple paths to the presidency. If Trump looses Florida, his road to winning is much narrower and effectively non-existent if he looses Pennsylvania too. As such, Joe really only needs one of Florida or Pennsylvania whereas Trump realistically needs both. Last, Bloomberg is dropping $100mm in Florida, which is almost certainly going to move the needle. Trump is not only cash poor in his campaign but the super PACs supporting him have not shown up at the same levels as 2016 (probably not the best idea to get in a p*ssing match with Sheldon Adelson right before the election), which will make it hard to combat Bloomberg's efforts.

Trump will win Florida handily. Bloomberg is wasting his money. The only thing the Bloomberg spending proves is how scared the Dems are.

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

I have little doubt that Wall Street is betting on Biden. That seems to be the smart money today, but Wall Street was wrong in 2016 so I have less faith in their ability to predict elections.

This election gets interesting if COVID continues to fall and more things start opening up, with B1G football another topic of political discussion.

Wall Street's behavior was a little less dramatic in 2016, but point taken. The election is likely going to come down to Covid if the results of focus groups are accurate. Covid is consistently number 1 on the list of concerns in the data from focus groups that has been publicly reported. In light of the emphasis on it by the President, public safety is generally coming in at 3 behind the economy in the data. For all intents and purposes, items 1 and 2 are the same concern but voiced differently and the data has been pretty negative for the President around Covid. However, the Dems need a plan beyond just staying quite, because the focus groups data that I have seen also has consistently shown that other than hardcore Dems people do not blame the president for the economy but do have serious concerns about his handling. If he can articulate a clear realistic plan in the next couple weeks beyond it is a hoax and go back to work, he has a pathway to capitalize on that fact; likewise if Joe does not do a better job of drawing a brightline between himself and AOC, the squad, et. al he is going to have some real issues. I think realistically this is far from over, but I don't think it is a toss up either. The data seems to support this being a 60/40 type probability in Biden's favor, but there are also clearly some levers that resonate with independents that if pulled effectively could move the needle significantly. If I had to bet the house, I would go Biden (as much as it pains me), but I think Trump has a path.

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

Trump will win Florida handily. Bloomberg is wasting his money. The only thing the Bloomberg spending proves is how scared the Dems are.

Florida has moved in a fairly narrow band since 2000 and none of the margins of victory would be what I would view as winning "handily". Florida and Ohio are toss-up states that are generally trending toward the GOP over the last few election cycles, but Florida has some unique issues for this president. If he was comfortable he was going to win, he would not be directing what his campaign acknowledges are limited resources at a state that was locked up. You don't waste money campaigning in states you have locked up.

Your Bloomberg argument is a bit of a non sequitur. Bloomberg publicly promised to deploy a billion dollars if necessary and he is putting a 10th of that in play. Bloomberg has a history of putting his money where his mouth is by spending hundreds of millions of dollars in elections. He also has a track record of cutting bait when it is clear he is wasting money. The fact he is keeping $900mm in dry powder and limiting his spend to a single state would suggest he is not scared but thinks he can put a finger on the scale. Not saying it is going to be dispositive, but $100mm focused exclusively on one of the most expensive states to campaign in due to the fact it has multiple media markets and 3 of the markets are in the top 18 in the country is hard to ignore.

 

[PurduePete98]

Florida has moved in a fairly narrow band since 2000 and none of the margins of victory would be what I would view as winning "handily". Florida and Ohio are toss-up states that are generally trending toward the GOP over the last few election cycles, but Florida has some unique issues for this president. If he was comfortable he was going to win, he would not be directing what his campaign acknowledges are limited resources at a state that was locked up. You don't waste money campaigning in states you have locked up.

Your Bloomberg argument is a bit of a non sequitur. Bloomberg publicly promised to deploy a billion dollars if necessary and he is putting a 10th of that in play. Bloomberg has a history of putting his money where his mouth is by spending hundreds of millions of dollars in elections. He also has a track record of cutting bait when it is clear he is wasting money. The fact he is keeping $900mm in dry powder and limiting his spend to a single state would suggest he is not scared but thinks he can put a finger on the scale. Not saying it is going to be dispositive, but $100mm focused exclusively on one of the most expensive states to campaign in due to the fact it has multiple media markets and 3 of the markets are in the top 18 in the country is hard to ignore.

Bloomberg wasted 900 million on a 3 week presidential run. He doesn't have a history of smart spending when it comes to campaign contributions.

 

[rappinrodney]

CARNIVAL YAPPER is BACK to YAP TO HIMSELF!!!!!!!

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

Bloomberg wasted 900 million on a 3 week presidential run. He doesn't have a history of smart spending when it comes to campaign contributions.

He spent $1 B according to his FEC filings but over 4 months not 3 weeks but don't let facts get in the way. Bloomberg Philanthropy has a track record of moving the needle when it deploys money on issue advocacy, which is what he is doing here. Assuming his organization does not know how to deploy resources because a former republican, who has a long history of donating to republicans, who did not do any leg work and tried to buy his way in to the race, who was pushing relatively conservative positions and who has the personality of a rock lost in a nominating process dominated by people who think AOC is a genius is kind of missing the universe for West Lafayette.

 

[SqueakyClean]

Florida has moved in a fairly narrow band since 2000 and none of the margins of victory would be what I would view as winning "handily". Florida and Ohio are toss-up states that are generally trending toward the GOP over the last few election cycles, but Florida has some unique issues for this president. If he was comfortable he was going to win, he would not be directing what his campaign acknowledges are limited resources at a state that was locked up. You don't waste money campaigning in states you have locked up.

Your Bloomberg argument is a bit of a non sequitur. Bloomberg publicly promised to deploy a billion dollars if necessary and he is putting a 10th of that in play. Bloomberg has a history of putting his money where his mouth is by spending hundreds of millions of dollars in elections. He also has a track record of cutting bait when it is clear he is wasting money. The fact he is keeping $900mm in dry powder and limiting his spend to a single state would suggest he is not scared but thinks he can put a finger on the scale. Not saying it is going to be dispositive, but $100mm focused exclusively on one of the most expensive states to campaign in due to the fact it has multiple media markets and 3 of the markets are in the top 18 in the country is hard to ignore.

Florida is a toss-up. Ohio is not (at least, not right now). Everything I am seeing is that Trump still has Ohio by 5 to 8 points.
Florida is a the highest yield battleground state. Both sides were going to pour money into that state regardless as to what the polls say who has a +2 lead.

The nightmare scenario occurs if: Trump takes Ohio, Florida, one Maine district, and NC. Then Biden gets Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, AZ, NV, and Virginia. Result: 269 / 269.
2020 has been a banner year already. Would it surprise anybody if this happened?

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

CARNIVAL YAPPER is BACK to YAP TO HIMSELF!!!!!!!

That is far wittier word play than I would expect from someone whose cognitive function is such he/she communicates primarily through pictures. Perhaps you could teach a class to the others on this board about how to effectively talk trash.

 

[Carnival_Barker_for_Truth]

Florida is a toss-up. Ohio is not (at least, not right now). Everything I am seeing is that Trump still has Ohio by 5 to 8 points.
Florida is a the highest yield battleground state. Both sides were going to pour money into that state regardless as to what the polls say who has a +2 lead.

The nightmare scenario occurs if: Trump takes Ohio, Florida, one Maine district, and NC. Then Biden gets Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, AZ, NV, and Virginia. Result: 269 / 269.
2020 has been a banner year already. Would it surprise anybody if this happened?

Don't disagree with anything you say. My statement that Ohio is a toss-up that has been trending toward the GOP is entirely consistent with the polling data you cite. I should have been more clear I was speaking over the longer term not this cycle. Based on current trends, I would not be surprised if Ohio is no longer considered a toss-up in the 2024 cycle. There are all kinds of plausible scenarios, but realistically the race is FL and PA. If Trump wins both, he is president; if Joe wins one or both, he is not a lock but based on where things stand today it is very hard to see a realistic path to 270 for Trump in that scenario.