Purdue vs. Ohio State: Predictions and Game Thread

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Teams by the Rankings:
Ohio State:
RPI: 20th
Kenpom: 15th
BPI: 17th
AP: 14th
Coaches: 16th

Purdue:
RPI: 8th
Kenpom: 3rd
BPI: 2nd
AP: 3rd
Coaches: 3rd

ESPN's BPI favors Purdue at 88.1%
Vegas currently places Purdue as a 10.5 favorite.

Teams by the Stats:
Ohio State:
Offensive Scoring: 77.4 ppg (93rd)
Defensive Scoring: 66.2 ppg (39th)
FG %: 49.1% (21st)
3pt FG %: 35.5% (153rd)
Total Rebounds per Game: 37.12
Offensive Rebounds per Game: 9.64 (242nd)
FG % Defense: 40.9% (41st)
Free Throw %: 74.5% (66th)
Opponent Effective FG %: 48% (53rd) (52.5% last 3 games)
Effective FG %: 55.1% (39th) (57.6% last 3 games)
Total Rebounding % (Rebound Rate): 54.5% (21st)
Team Win %-Close Games: 33.3% (272nd)

Purdue:
Offensive Scoring: 84.0 ppg (20th)
Defensive Scoring: 64.2 ppg (18th)
FG %: 50.2% (14th)
3pt FG %: 42.8% (3rd)
Total Rebounds per Game: 36.0
Offensive Rebounds per Game: 9.04 (271st)
FG % Defense: 39.7% (16th)
Free Throw %: 75.2% (54th)
Opponent Effective FG %: 45.4% (9th) (52.6% last 3 games)
Effective FG %: 58.9% (6th) (51.8% last 3 games)
Total Rebounding % (Rebounding Rate): 52.3% (73rd)
Team Win %-Close Games: 71.4% (68th)

Prediction:
Purdue: 74
Ohio State: 69

 

[Boiler_HD]

Purdue: 80
Ohio State: Less

 

[Do Dah Day]

PU 76 - 65

 

[BoiledSteel]

Three predictions:

1. The home crowd will be rocking
2. During and after the game at least 3 'experts' will find something to complain about
3. We are locked in from the start and win by 15.

 

[bonefish1]

Purdue hasn't played really well since Michigan at home. I expect them to come out of this mini-funk and start raining 3's and bury OSU early.
The crowd should be jacked and Mackey will be crazy. Late start gives the fans plenty of time to get lubricated.
KBD might get 30, and that's fine, just don't let anyone else go off. If Dakich is forced to play a lot or minutes, that's good news for the Boilers.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Mackey is going to be B-A-N-A-N-A-S. I don't think o$u can keep up. Purdue by 20.

 

[ddmills333]

Boilers 76
OSU 68

Get up early and cruise to another W

 

[70boiler]

Boilers listed as 9.5 point faves

 

[Boilermaker24]

Boilers: 75
Buckeyes: 71

or Boilers 83, Buckeyes 74

going with the boilers but am definitely alert-- this is a big one, but I sense that were preparing with the right intensity for this one and that our shooting form will hopefully return

 

[StickPurdue]

Numbers wise this is a good matchup for Purdue. Ohio State isn't exactly an explosive offense and isn't a great defensive team. The best matchup though is on the boards. Purdue's biggest weakness is also a weakness for OSU. I say Purdue by 7 so long as they come out looking rested and ready. All games are mist wins, but this one is pretty important. Hope they can come out loose and relaxed and ball out like they are fully capable of. I am sure I will be able to relax once this game is finally over for a full day before I start worrying about MSU.

 

[Do Dah Day]

... All games are mist wins, but this one is pretty important.

I agree ... every damn game seems mystical .... and a mist surrounds the floor ... and ghosts of Robbie rise to the rafters ... and Big Dog doing stupid things the night before .... and ALR shooting out their @ss ... and the silverdome ... OMG, the silverdome ... the mist is full of memories.

 

[buffboiler]

This is going to be good game for us (win in 10+ pts margin). However, Painter needs to keep a tight leash for pacing the Boilers with a game at MSU on Saturday.

Hopefully not another game like Lithuania in WUG final where everyone was gassed..

Boiler up!!

 

[Hausta01]

And hopefully the refs swallow their dang whistles unlike the Maryland game. Good night I think hindered us as much as anything. So many stoppages of play, there was no flow to the game. Every time the crowd would get loud, ref would whistle a foul, TV timeout and noise was reduced by 30% or more.

 

[Purdue0034]

Purdue 78, Ohio State 72. Purdue dominates most of the game. Ohio State makes a late run to make it respectable, but good guys hang on and win!

 

[Roeder]

Teams by the Rankings:
Ohio State:
RPI: 20th
Kenpom: 15th
BPI: 17th
AP: 14th
Coaches: 16th

Purdue:
RPI: 8th
Kenpom: 3rd
BPI: 2nd
AP: 3rd
Coaches: 3rd

ESPN's BPI favors Purdue at 88.1%
Vegas currently places Purdue as a ________.

Teams by the Stats:
Ohio State:
Offensive Scoring: 77.4 ppg (93rd)
Defensive Scoring: 66.2 ppg (39th)
FG %: 49.1% (21st)
3pt FG %: 35.5% (153rd)
Total Rebounds per Game: 37.12
Offensive Rebounds per Game: 9.64 (242nd)
FG % Defense: 40.9% (41st)
Free Throw %: 74.5% (66th)
Opponent Effective FG %: 48% (53rd) (52.5% last 3 games)
Effective FG %: 55.1% (39th) (57.6% last 3 games)
Total Rebounding % (Rebound Rate): 54.5% (21st)
Team Win %-Close Games: 33.3% (272nd)

Purdue:
Offensive Scoring: 84.0 ppg (20th)
Defensive Scoring: 64.2 ppg (18th)
FG %: 50.2% (14th)
3pt FG %: 42.8% (3rd)
Total Rebounds per Game: 36.0
Offensive Rebounds per Game: 9.04 (271st)
FG % Defense: 39.7% (16th)
Free Throw %: 75.2% (54th)
Opponent Effective FG %: 45.4% (9th) (52.6% last 3 games)
Effective FG %: 58.9% (6th) (51.8% last 3 games)
Total Rebounding % (Rebounding Rate): 52.3% (73rd)
Team Win %-Close Games: 71.4% (68th)

Prediction:
Purdue: 74
Ohio State: 69

I think Purdue rolls tonight. Mackey will be insane. KBD is great, but Purdue has the 4 next best players on the court in my biased opinion.

Purdue 86 - OSU 69

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

118 decibels

 

[cjf04]

Last chance for Dakota and Vince to get one more dig in on their Ohio brotherens on Keady Court.....they both come out hot, PU by 16 on strong shooting and a lot of forced turnovers.

 

[PaBoiler78]

Last chance for Dakota and Vince to get one more dig in on their Ohio brotherens on Keady Court.....they both come out hot, PU by 16 on strong shooting and a lot of forced turnovers.

we win tonight but next game vs Molest State will be alot tougher.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Interesting quotes concerning tonight's big game:

Vincent Edwards:

"This is the chance for us to separate ourselves from the rest of the pack. It starts with the game (Wednesday), and of course we're not going to look to the game Saturday because (Wednesday) is the most important one, in my opinion. (The Buckeyes) are the one's who are trailing right behind us, so this is the one we have to come out and get. We have to protect home court and we have to be ready to play."

Purdue Coach, Matt Painter:

"They have one of the best players in the country on their team (Keita Bates-Diop). Obviously he's a skilled guy, but he's really long. If you try to match him physically, in terms of length, then he's normally pretty elusive and he gets by those guys, and gets angles and gets to the basket. If you put somebody smaller on him, he normally goes over those guys. He's just a real tough matchup for a lot of people."

Ohio State Coach, Chris Holtmann:

"We're trying to figure out how to get a stop and score a basket against these guys. They're a terrific team. Complete in every way, really. No clear, identifiable weaknesses, to be honest with you ... They're complete on both ends.

They don't have a whole lot of guys that you can key off of and say, 'hey this guy, you don't have to guard' or 'we're going to take our chances with this guy behind the line' ... They've got multiple players that command a double team.

Their ability to shoot it is at a completely different level. I think that's what really gives them a chance to make a great run in the (NCAA) Tournament. Their efficiency from behind the arc is a joke, so that's the one area I would say is not even close to comparable to the Michigan State team."

 

[boilers-seminoles]

Purdue 88 Ohio State 79

 

[Inkjet200]

I'll go with Purdue 77 Ohio State 66.

 

[BoiledSteel]

Personally I think the keys to this game are we have to return to the shooting we had just a few games ago, play defense like we know we can and wear OSU out. Their bench isn't much to speak of as I think it only gets 8 or 9 points as of late, so that means the starters will do the bulk of the scoring. KBD will get his and probably plenty of it, but he can't beat us alone.

 

[FirstDownB]

This is going to be good game for us (win in 10+ pts margin). However, Painter needs to keep a tight leash for pacing the Boilers with a game at MSU on Saturday.

Hopefully not another game like Lithuania in WUG final where everyone was gassed..

Boiler up!!

Not sure what this means. Painter won't be resting starters against OSU just so they are fresher for the MSU game on Saturday. Pull out all the stops on this one, win it, and the game against MSU is somewhat expendable.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Personally I think the keys to this game are we have to return to the shooting we had just a few games ago, play defense like we know we can and wear OSU out. Their bench isn't much to speak of as I think it only gets 8 or 9 points as of late, so that means the starters will do the bulk of the scoring. KBD will get his and probably plenty of it, but he can't beat us alone.

Tend to agree here....KBD is going to get production.....make him work for it and stay out of foul trouble, and if the Boilers can contain Tate and Jackson, that should bode well. This could be a roller coaster game......both teams have had some games with wild swings.

Both teams will need to pace themselves too, IMO.....this is one of those games that can be as mentally taxing/draining as it is physically.....the crowd should help, but Ohio State is a capable team with confidence.....gonna be a battle and a potential slug-fest.......these are the games the players really play for.....would have loved to be able to attend, but BTN will have to suffice for me.

 

[lbodel]

Purdue hasn't played really well since Michigan at home. I expect them to come out of this mini-funk and start raining 3's and bury OSU early.
The crowd should be jacked and Mackey will be crazy. Late start gives the fans plenty of time to get lubricated.
KBD might get 30, and that's fine, just don't let anyone else go off. If Dakich is forced to play a lot or minutes, that's good news for the Boilers.

I think you're right on Diop - I don't think the focus is to shut him down. It's more let's not let others get involved.

We used to drop off of a guard defensively against OSU - but don't really have that option anymore. I think there's some interesting match-ups that OSU presents.

Wesson is a hefty player, but not overly tall. Will be an interesting match-up for Haas and he'll get involved offensively. Haas has to stay out of foul trouble.

Bates-Diop will be interesting. Mathias will take him but that's something Mathias could struggle with in the interior. We'll need to play good interior defense - but not leave guys wide open underneath on help defense.

 

[lbodel]

I think Purdue rolls tonight. Mackey will be insane. KBD is great, but Purdue has the 4 next best players on the court in my biased opinion.

Purdue 86 - OSU 69

While Mackey can certainly be a great asset, it doesn't necessarily equal anything if a team comes to play. Duke dismantled us piece by piece at Mackey in the craziest I've seen Mackey - we were out of that game in an instant. One area that OSU can be vulnerable on is turnovers (including Diop). We need to have an advantage in turnovers.

Purdue needs to be back on point from 3 for this game. OSU has some potentially not great match-ups for us on the defensive end - we can't have another sub-40% shooting game (and in the 30s from 3). Diop could be a match up issue inside with Mathias - and we haven't quite mastered interior help defense yet. However, Mathias is great at picking pockets - just has to avoid getting fouls early.

 

[IamBob]

Prediction ...

Luce goes for 5 pts, 1 assist, 2 t.o., and 1 missed dunk

 

[lbodel]

Personally I think the keys to this game are we have to return to the shooting we had just a few games ago, play defense like we know we can and wear OSU out. Their bench isn't much to speak of as I think it only gets 8 or 9 points as of late, so that means the starters will do the bulk of the scoring. KBD will get his and probably plenty of it, but he can't beat us alone.

Our bench is not all that different.

Hopefully Vince will have his legs back, Cline can be productive and Haarms doesn't jump and attempt to block every shot!

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Our bench is not all that different.

Hopefully Vince will have his legs back, Cline can be productive and Haarms doesn't jump and attempt to block every shot!

I'd have to disagree. Our first guard off the bench is typically Cline...their's is Dakich. I don't think you'd find a rational person who wouldn't take Cline 100% of the time over Dakich. Purdue's bench is more talented and deeper.

The issue is that KBD is likely going to be the best player on the floor....where Purdue holds the advantage is that they likely have the 2nd (Boogie), 3rd (Vince), 4th (Haas), and 5th (Mathias).

Purdue would like to make KBD work harder to get his shots rather than focusing all of their energy on him because OSU has the horses to pick up the slack some what. If you can limit his teammates chances for success through help defense and rebounding, it likely means Purdue wins the game. If they allow KBD to get his points WHILE engaging his teammates in the offense, it'll be hard for Purdue to win.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I think that this is the most important game of the year (excluding post season) for Purdue and MSU is the second most important. Win both and the Big Ten championship is practically won.

Purdue is going to have to get back to how it was playing prior to the last few games to prevail, IMO. I like Purdue’s chances because they know how good OSU is and I expect them to rise to the occasion.

 

[z_one]

81-79 The good guys. Boilers pull out to a two game lead.

 

[Hausta01]

I think the best thing we can do is, assuming OSU puts KBD on Vince, is get a little 2-man game going with VE and Haas to try and get KBD guarding Haas for a few possessions. Wear him out defensively a little to reduce his offensive impact.

 

[guppy likes purdue]

Our bench is not all that different.

Hopefully Vince will have his legs back, Cline can be productive and Haarms doesn't jump and attempt to block every shot!

I would say our bench was better to start out with, but with Kam williams being out it is that much shorter. Despite what some other posters say a lot of whistles benifet purdue since Ohio state is already short handed.

 

[BoiledSteel]

I would say our bench was better to start out with, but with Kam williams being out it is that much shorter. Despite what some other posters say a lot of whistles benifet purdue since Ohio state is already short handed.

I think this is a good strategy and what our offense is designed to do. We have a pretty good bench with Cline, Eastern and Haarms coming in so there is no relaxing on OSU's part when we switch out.

It wouldn't shock me to see NE have a big night because each game he has gotten better and better and is super athletic.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I think the best thing we can do is, assuming OSU puts KBD on Vince, is get a little 2-man game going with VE and Haas to try and get KBD guarding Haas for a few possessions. Wear him out defensively a little to reduce his offensive impact.

In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised to see KBD guard Mathias in an effort to shut him down from getting clean looks outside the arc and reduce the flow of the offense. That's one aspect that IU did really well with McRoberts (even though he fouled EVERY SINGLE TIME Mathias caught the ball and wasn't called for it (I know, it isn't a foul if it isn't called...go back and watch how much McRoberts used his hands on Mathias)...but IU did a good job of disrupting the initial motion of the offense and likely showed CMP and staff how teams would try to defend them in ways they haven't quite seen before. My guess, Purdue has had a few games to figure out how to tweak the offense to be successful against those looks and the offense picks back up again.

 

[SqueakyClean]

I won't make a prediction (because I suck at them), but one thing I did notice that is a good sign: Look at the true road environments that OSU has played in this year. @NW (6,000 attendance), @RU (7,500 attendance), @Iowa (11,000 attendance), and then you have to go all the way back to December 2nd @Wisconsin to get what one would call a "respectable" hostile crowd (attendance 17,000). In that game OSU had a 10 point lead within the first 8 minutes of the game, so the crowd was taken out pretty early.
Hopefully Mackey will be rocking and really puts the pressure on OSU.

 

[lbodel]

I think that this is the most important game of the year (excluding post season) for Purdue and MSU is the second most important. Win both and the Big Ten championship is practically won.

Purdue is going to have to get back to how it was playing prior to the last few games to prevail, IMO. I like Purdue’s chances because they know how good OSU is and I expect them to rise to the occasion.

I think this is most important because if we lose, then we obviously face what could be a much more difficult opponent on Saturday. So then the pressure's on not to lose 2 in a row. I think all of us would be ok going 1-1 over the next 2 games. Ideally, 2-0, but you know...

 

[lbodel]

I would say our bench was better to start out with, but with Kam williams being out it is that much shorter. Despite what some other posters say a lot of whistles benifet purdue since Ohio state is already short handed.

Obviously it depends where the whistles are being called. Mathias will be guarding a bigger guy who is somewhat turnover-prone - and will be trying to pickpocket him. If they start calling him, that's not good for us.

I don't think there's a massive difference in depth. I think Purdue is more versatile if one or two guys are struggling - but I don't think we're going to wear Ohio State out.

 

[RDUBoiler]

I'll go 78-67.

 

[tjreese]

Purdue hasn't played really well since Michigan at home. I expect them to come out of this mini-funk and start raining 3's and bury OSU early.
The crowd should be jacked and Mackey will be crazy. Late start gives the fans plenty of time to get lubricated.
KBD might get 30, and that's fine, just don't let anyone else go off. If Dakich is forced to play a lot or minutes, that's good news for the Boilers.

I just don't know whether Purdue will get good looks behind the arc. I think Holtmann pressures the perimeter daring Purdue to drive the ball and tries to make passes inside difficult and make this a game of quickness. If Purdue drives and doesn't finish, then OSU is in transition with Hass and the driver 25 feet behind the ball going down the court. I would like to see the game open up with a clear out as much as possible (with Haas pulling his man what he can) if is obvious that OSU is trying to get in their jocks belly up..as well as some back screens. All based on Holtsmann comments about Purdue's 3 pt shooting. Now on Haas...coaches can be creatures of habits and I fully expect him to double when possible from blind side and coming top side or bottom side depending on how Haas has sealed his man since he remembers the Butler game. Haas is better now, but quick he isn't...course that would be when Wesson is not in there and Wesson using his weight to make it harder for Haas to get low and helping fatigue Haas a bit. If Purdue basically keeps this in the half court and keeps Tate from rebouding and driving effectively I think Purdue win. Both teams want to steal some buckets, but OSU has a much more effective Tate when running and doesn't have to play against the length of Purdue in the half court.

Shoot the three and miss the three early and it could give OSU a jump start and so that shouldn't be the first choice, but a choice that "may" have to be made. Purdue isn't as good on O if OSU puts pressure on the perimeter and Purdue is not as good on D if OSU is in transition...I look for pressure by OSU...and will OSU throw bodies for quickness to try to deny passes to Haas and then use those bodies on the perimeter to shoot the ball (Young is almost ?)

Hopefully Purdue gets to the line and knocks them down, but to do that Purdue has to get the ball in close by either driving it or post buckets. Haarm's use your quickness on Wesson..and Nojel..make good reads and when you drive...go strong, but under control...