Let the great COVID experiment begin !

[MJ-79Boiler]

Let's see which states do a better job, with the summer coming. My guess is that the South will see a major flare up do to a number of issues. (not taking the virus as seriously/wearing masks & gloves in high traffic areas, lots of vacationers, etc..)

IF the numbers jump, we may see 5,000,000 cases by Fall. Let's hope people will finally see the threat to themselves and the country. (both health and economy)

 

[hunkgolden]

Let's see which states do a better job, with the summer coming. My guess is that the South will see a major flare up do to a number of issues. (not taking the virus as seriously/wearing masks & gloves in high traffic areas, lots of vacationers, etc..)

IF the numbers jump, we may see 5,000,000 cases by Fall. Let's hope people will finally see the threat to themselves and the country. (both health and economy)

Which states have done a better job to this point?

And when judging which states have done a better job - what is our start time and what is our end time?

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Which states have done a better job to this point?

And when judging which states have done a better job - what is our start time and what is our end time?

I am obviously biased, being a process guy - I don't think any of them did a good job early on. Some states had low infection rates, but that was just because the speed of spreading tends to go with population size, density, tourist traffic and/or dependencies on public transportation.

Start times should technically be when each state had their first major outbreak. (ie When they started doubling their numbers weekly) However, given the contagiousness of the virus, most states will ultimately be evaluated on the key END dates, so I will suggest 2 which are important:

1.) Who has the fastest growth rates at the end of Sept ? (That's important for the election, so if states can't improve things by then knowing the importance of this date, then they don't have a grasp on the scientific and process-related issues. &
2.) What are the growth rates next March? (Will states make the same mistakes the "next" time around

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Let's see which states do a better job, with the summer coming. My guess is that the South will see a major flare up do to a number of issues. (not taking the virus as seriously/wearing masks & gloves in high traffic areas, lots of vacationers, etc..)

IF the numbers jump, we may see 5,000,000 cases by Fall. Let's hope people will finally see the threat to themselves and the country. (both health and economy)

Wow, aren't we Mr. Cheerful this morning. Let's give credit to folks for what they've done by staying home, distancing, what they should be doing. I think we may see a small bump all across the country...and world where it's warm. But IMO, you're way off on this one.

 

[hunkgolden]

I am obviously biased, being a process guy - I don't think any of them did a good job early on. Some states had low infection rates, but that was just because the speed of spreading tends to go with population size, density, tourist traffic and/or dependencies on public transportation.

Start times should technically be when each state had their first major outbreak. (ie When they started doubling their numbers weekly) However, given the contagiousness of the virus, most states will ultimately be evaluated on the key END dates, so I will suggest 2 which are important:

1.) Who has the fastest growth rates at the end of Sept ? (That's important for the election, so if states can't improve things by then knowing the importance of this date, then they don't have a grasp on the scientific and process-related issues. &
2.) What are the growth rates next March? (Will states make the same mistakes the "next" time around

You sound as if you're ready to pounce on states that have had comparatively fewer deaths and are beginning to open up. Last I checked, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts accounted for half of the deaths in the country but you seem more concerned about "red" states opening up. Weird. "First major outbreak" is rather vague.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Wow, aren't we Mr. Cheerful this morning. Let's give credit to folks for what they've done by staying home, distancing, what they should be doing. I think we may see a small bump all across the country...and world where it's warm. But IMO, you're way off on this one.

I know, I know. People said I was off track when I said the quoted models were way off, or when I said 100,000 cases and 3,000 dead in March, or when I said 1-1.5 million in April with 50,000 dead.

Funny thing is . . I am not seeing ANYONE who is posting more accurate information right now. Care to define your "small bump" ?

As for people staying at home, etc.. I do think most people deserve credit for staying at home, unfortunately , . . as the numbers show, it only takes a few to keep the virus spreading. I personally think those that are frustrated by the economic impact should be upset by our current leaders as they haven't been able to convince everyone that this is a crisis.

 

[ecouch]

I know, I know. People said I was off track when I said the quoted models were way off, or when I said 100,000 cases and 3,000 dead in March, or when I said 1-1.5 million in April with 50,000 dead.

Funny thing is . . I am not seeing ANYONE who is posting more accurate information right now. Care to define your "small bump" ?

As for people staying at home, etc.. I do think most people deserve credit for staying at home, unfortunately , . . as the numbers show, it only takes a few to keep the virus spreading. I personally think those that are frustrated by the economic impact should be upset by our current leaders as they haven't been able to convince everyone that this is a crisis.

Have you heard back from the Governor yet?

 

[Purdue97]

I am obviously biased, being a process guy - I don't think any of them did a good job early on. Some states had low infection rates, but that was just because the speed of spreading tends to go with population size, density, tourist traffic and/or dependencies on public transportation.

Start times should technically be when each state had their first major outbreak. (ie When they started doubling their numbers weekly) However, given the contagiousness of the virus, most states will ultimately be evaluated on the key END dates, so I will suggest 2 which are important:

1.) Who has the fastest growth rates at the end of Sept ? (That's important for the election, so if states can't improve things by then knowing the importance of this date, then they don't have a grasp on the scientific and process-related issues. &
2.) What are the growth rates next March? (Will states make the same mistakes the "next" time around

Right. No states did a good job. heck, people on here were critiquing Trump for not doing anything as far back as November cause he should have known.

Now, get asked a specific question, and really no answer. Just generalities. I would not have as much an issue with the critiquing if people would put out specific plans of their own.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

You sound as if you're ready to pounce on states that have had comparatively fewer deaths and are beginning to open up. Last I checked, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts accounted for half of the deaths in the country but you seem more concerned about "red" states opening up. Weird. "First major outbreak" is rather vague.

First major outbreak (ie when numbers are "doubling" each week) is NOT vague - it is SPECIFIC. You seem to want to talk about New York for political reasons, so I will share my comments on New York.

For New York, they hit this level in early March. From a mgmt. standpoint, you then look at how well they are are to contain it, LOWER the numbers and the speed at which they are doing it.

New York did a VERY poor job of "containment" up front, just as our Washington DC politicians did, but they are clearly "managing" their problem well "so far" as the numbers are consistently coming down. That does NOT mean they will "re-open" well. "Re-opening" is a different phase, with a different process, with different variables.

It only only means they are "currently" managing the "problem" well while people are at home. Why? Because their leader is respected by New Yorkers for his straightforward message and facts. Bottom line, people are heeding his warnings and are following his lead. He has credibility within the state, which is important in a crisis. (as any project mgr will tell you)

But, if you are trying to keep track of political pros and cons, you at least have to give Cuomo credit for marshalling the country towards the issues ( highlighting the testing and healthcare needs, PPE and hospital capacity issues, getting U.S. companies to start addressing them, clearly showing other states what they "specifically" have to do to address the virus, etc.. Has he done everything right - heck no, but on leadership he gets a high mark. On initial containment, he gets a D-, like our DC politicians. (NO early urgency or recognition of the SIZE of the problem)

 

[hunkgolden]

First major outbreak (ie when numbers are "doubling" each week) is NOT vague - it is SPECIFIC. You seem to want to talk about New York for political reasons, so I will share my comments on New York.

For New York, they hit this level in early March. From a mgmt. standpoint, you then look at how well they are are to contain it, LOWER the numbers and the speed at which they are doing it.

New York did a VERY poor job of "containment" up front, just as our Washington DC politicians did, but they are clearly "managing" their problem well "so far" as the numbers are consistently coming down. That does NOT mean they will "re-open" well. "Re-opening" is a different phase, with a different process, with different variables.

It only only means they are "currently" managing the "problem" well while people are at home. Why? Because their leader is respected by New Yorkers for his straightforward message and facts. Bottom line, people are heeding his warnings and are following his lead. He has credibility within the state, which is important in a crisis. (as any project mgr will tell you)

But, if you are trying to keep track of political pros and cons, you at least have to give Cuomo credit for marshalling the country towards the issues ( highlighting the testing and healthcare needs, PPE and hospital capacity issues, getting U.S. companies to start addressing them, clearly showing other states what they "specifically" have to do to address the virus, etc.. Has he done everything right - heck no, but on leadership he gets a high mark. On initial containment, he gets a D-, like our DC politicians. (NO early urgency or recognition of the SIZE of the problem)

Just seems like you've set up your own set of rules, timeline, and metrics all designed to show how red states are doing it wrong. The vast majority of states have gotten it right thus far - the ones who have gotten most wrong thus far are NY, NJ, MA, and MI. We have to open things up at some point - we all can't stay in our homes until a vaccine is ready for mass distribution. This means the virus is going to spread and mostly older folks with preexisting conditions are going to die; unless they isolate themselves like my parents are doing. That's just the reality right now. The alternative is to have everyone stay in their homes while our economic system completely collapses.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Have you heard back from the Governor yet?

ha ha ha ha ! No, I haven't . . . ., and maybe that's why our nursing homes and correctional facilities CONTINUE to have major problems. Someone needs to tell them that even project mgmt 101 is to address your top few issues. They aren't, with "one" exception. I HAVE seen them do what I suggested with respect to some of the major hospitals. (ie temperature checks, better containment "at the door" with what comes into and out of the hospitals, more widespread PPE /masks and testing" So, . . I guess they are at least figuring out 1 of the top issues, but temperature checks are not great tools as people are contagious "before" they have temps, but . . . it's the best they have at the present. (although "accurate" testing has to be one of their highest priorities right now, and it's still lacking)

However, I "DO" hear back from my local newspaper and from New York. Thanks for sharing

 

[hunkgolden]

ha ha ha ha ! No, I haven't . . . ., and maybe that's why our nursing homes and correctional facilities CONTINUE to have major problems. Someone needs to tell them that even project mgmt 101 is to address your top few issues. They aren't, with "one" exception. I HAVE seen them do what I suggested with respect to some of the major hospitals. (ie temperature checks, better containment "at the door" with what comes into and out of the hospitals, more widespread PPE /masks and testing" So, . . I guess they are at least figuring out 1 of the top issues, but temperature checks are not great tools as people are contagious "before" they have temps, but . . . it's the best they have at the present. (although "accurate" testing has to be one of their highest priorities right now, and it's still lacking)

However, I "DO" hear back from my local newspaper and from New York. Thanks for sharing

So you've got Governor Cuomo's ear?

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Right. No states did a good job. heck, people on here were critiquing Trump for not doing anything as far back as November cause he should have known.

Now, get asked a specific question, and really no answer. Just generalities. I would not have as much an issue with the critiquing if people would put out specific plans of their own.

Ahh ! an expert ! - welcome. Care to tell us all WHO is on your list for doing a GOOD job on containment and WHY you believe that?

 

[hunkgolden]

Ahh ! an expert ! - welcome. Care to tell us all WHO is on your list for doing a GOOD job on containment and WHY you believe that?

You entirely missed his point. What's your plan Stan?

 

[SqueakyClean]

Which states have done a better job to this point?

And when judging which states have done a better job - what is our start time and what is our end time?

I think I can say with decent certainty that my home state of Ohio has done a better than average job with this. Dewine was one of the first governors to cancel school and implement social distancing restrictions. He also cancelled the Arnold Expo classic early (if you remember from the "Are you concerned about the Coronovirus" thread), which at the time seemed like an overreaction on March 3rd, but ended up being the right decision. Maybe he just got lucky, but he has been pretty consistent with his messaging.

There are quantifiable results as well. I don't think many people realize that Ohio is the 7th most populous state in the union, and is 11th in population density (higher than California, Illinois, and Texas). Yet we are currently sitting 15th in total cases (and for the record, 10% of our cases all came from a large correctional institution, ~2400 cases. Without those, we'd be closer to 17th). For perspective, Ohio has almost double the population of Indiana and has 100 more people per square mile density wise (288 vs 188), yet Indiana has more cases (~+500) and more deaths (~+200). I have also yet to hear of any significant shortages of PPE / ventilators.

So yeah, I'd say Ohio has done pretty well. Things are starting to open back up (I am back in the office), but we are all in masks here. I honestly think we are opening things up a little early (the statewide cases have been pretty consistently +500 per day for weeks now, which is good, but not definitively falling off), but it will likely depend upon how well people follow the masking rules.

I would say that Dewine has been handling things up until now with a proactive approach, but we will now be shifting to a reactive approach. We are testing things by opening up offices and some retail, to see if things stay consistent or whether they ramp up. Hopefully they remain either consistent or slowly go down, but this is one of the cases where stupidity and self-interests can be detrimental on a massive scale.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

You entirely missed his point. What's your plan Stan?

My PLAN has been consistent throughout (for anyone reading all of my posts and not just sniping) However, to save you time:

1.) We need "ACCURATE" testing and LOTS of it - Indiana needs at least 200,000 tests a day to start (Do people realize that current test are only catching making 30% before major symptoms?) Every medical worker should be tested every other day and all of our nursing homes and correctional facilities, with the balance used for tracing known cases, hot spots, people returning to work and those having over 100.5 temps or those with symptoms AND a recent contact with a COVID positive case (probably in that order of priority)
2.) We need leaders with credibility, facts and scientific information, so that the masses will follow their lead and their suggestions. (No comments about it NOT being worse than the common flu, no comments about drinking bleach and no comments suggesting it's OK to get around a lot of people !) As we now know, it only takes a few idiots and a crowd to start the next wave.
3.) We need more PPE ! Noone should be going back to work without it or without the adequate supplies needed in their working conditions ! (reusing them, not replacing them when they are compromised, etc.. is NOT acceptable
4.) We need EVERYONE wearing masks in public and we need to make a strong case for gloves ! (There are very few surfaces we have to worry about if people are wearing clean gloves)
5.) We need basic hand washing, laundry of items worn outside and cleaning of products brought into the house.
6.) Social distancing (6 feet "outside" with masks on & 10 feet inside. (Note: No major crowds inside other than grocery stores, etc.. until the growth rates have been cut by 70%. 14 day downward trends are nice but aren't sufficient ! A recent lab study showed that a sneeze or a cough can easily travel 12 feet and remain active for hours. (3-4 feet even with a mask "on") The numbers will come back QUICKLY, if we do not get the growth rates down SIGNIFICANTLY or . . have a breakthrough with hot weather helping us or a vaccine.
7.) Each state should be mandating standard procedures for restaurants and food preparation places so the public KNOWs ordering food for delivery is low risk. If they don't, normal traffic, which is needed for profits will not return.
8.) Services performed "inside" homes should be using respirators and gloves
9.) All businesses should be wearing masks when coming into contact with customers. Some still don't, and I won't go back until/unless they do. (and the economy needs all of us to come back and not just 40-50% of us)
10.) We need to immediately eliminate most of the tax breaks for the rich as those financial breaks are no longer affordable or viable for the nation
11.) We need healthcare for everyone, or there will always be things like this which will spread because people can't afford to seek help.

PS Yes, this is a lot, but that's the reason it was just NUTS that we didn't respond with more urgency up front. We are also finding out HOW important credible leadership is in a crisis. (You simply need everyone complying or the timeline will drag out longer, and longer and longer.) So for those worried about the economy, you should be stressing credible leadership, facts, plans and everyone's compliance to scientific guidelines to improve things QUICKLY - not next Fall or year. If you don't, you are just pinning your hopes on the weather, vaccines or a miracle - and you will have no idea how long those will take.

 

[BSIT]

You sound as if you're ready to pounce on states that have had comparatively fewer deaths and are beginning to open up. Last I checked, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts accounted for half of the deaths in the country but you seem more concerned about "red" states opening up. Weird. "First major outbreak" is rather vague.

And don’t forget Michigan which is the worst state in the region

 

[hunkgolden]

My PLAN has been consistent throughout (for anyone reading all of my posts and not just sniping) However, to save you time:

1.) We need "ACCURATE" testing and LOTS of it - Indiana needs at least 200,000 tests a day to start (Do people realize that current test are only catching making 30% before major symptoms?) Every medical worker should be tested every other day and all of our nursing homes and correctional facilities, with the balance used for tracing known cases, hot spots, people returning to work and those having over 100.5 temps or those with symptoms AND a recent contact with a COVID positive case (probably in that order of priority)
2.) We need leaders with credibility, facts and scientific information, so that the masses will follow their lead and their suggestions. (No comments about it NOT being worse than the common flu, no comments about drinking bleach and no comments suggesting it's OK to get around a lot of people !) As we now know, it only takes a few idiots and a crowd to start the next wave.
3.) We need more PPE ! Noone should be going back to work without it or without the adequate supplies needed in their working conditions ! (reusing them, not replacing them when they are compromised, etc.. is NOT acceptable
4.) We need EVERYONE wearing masks in public and we need to make a strong case for gloves ! (There are very few surfaces we have to worry about if people are wearing clean gloves)
5.) We need basic hand washing, laundry of items worn outside and cleaning of products brought into the house.
6.) Social distancing (6 feet "outside" with masks on & 10 feet inside. (Note: No major crowds inside other than grocery stores, etc.. until the growth rates have been cut by 70%. 14 day downward trends are nice but aren't sufficient ! A recent lab study showed that a sneeze or a cough can easily travel 12 feet and remain active for hours. (3-4 feet even with a mask "on") The numbers will come back QUICKLY, if we do not get the growth rates down SIGNIFICANTLY or . . have a breakthrough with hot weather helping us or a vaccine.
7.) Each state should be mandating standard procedures for restaurants and food preparation places so the public KNOWs ordering food for delivery is low risk. If they don't, normal traffic, which is needed for profits will not return.
8.) Services performed "inside" homes should be using respirators and gloves
9.) All businesses should be wearing masks when coming into contact with customers. Some still don't, and I won't go back until/unless they do. (and the economy needs all of us to come back and not just 40-50% of us)
10.) We need to immediately eliminate most of the tax breaks for the rich as those financial breaks are no longer affordable or viable for the nation
11.) We need healthcare for everyone, or there will always be things like this which will spread because people can't afford to seek help.

PS Yes, this is a lot, but that's the reason it was just NUTS that we didn't respond with more urgency up front. We are also finding out HOW important credible leadership is in a crisis. (You simply need everyone complying or the timeline will drag out longer, and longer and longer.) So for those worried about the economy, you should be stressing credible leadership, facts, plans and everyone's compliance to scientific guidelines to improve things QUICKLY - not next Fall or year. If you don't, you are just pinning your hopes on the weather, vaccines or a miracle - and you will have no idea how long those will take.

You make no mention of when to open up. Again, you started this thread sounding as if you were ready to pounce on states that open up then see an increase in cases/deaths (which we all know is going to happen because this virus isn't going anywhere). So yeah we can all wash our hands and keep at a distant but if you're going to be critical of states opening up too soon in your eyes then you had better have an alternate solution.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

I think I can say with decent certainty that my home state of Ohio has done a better than average job with this. Dewine was one of the first governors to cancel school and implement social distancing restrictions. He also cancelled the Arnold Expo classic early (if you remember from the "Are you concerned about the Coronovirus" thread), which at the time seemed like an overreaction on March 3rd, but ended up being the right decision. Maybe he just got lucky, but he has been pretty consistent with his messaging.

There are quantifiable results as well. I don't think many people realize that Ohio is the 7th most populous state in the union, and is 11th in population density (higher than California, Illinois, and Texas). Yet we are currently sitting 15th in total cases (and for the record, 10% of our cases all came from a large correctional institution, ~2400 cases. Without those, we'd be closer to 17th). For perspective, Ohio has almost double the population of Indiana and has 100 more people per square mile density wise (288 vs 188), yet Indiana has more cases (~+500) and more deaths (~+200). I have also yet to hear of any significant shortages of PPE / ventilators.

So yeah, I'd say Ohio has done pretty well. Things are starting to open back up (I am back in the office), but we are all in masks here. I honestly think we are opening things up a little early (the statewide cases have been pretty consistently +500 per day for weeks now, which is good, but not definitively falling off), but it will likely depend upon how well people follow the masking rules.

I would say that Dewine has been handling things up until now with a proactive approach, but we will now be shifting to a reactive approach. We are testing things by opening up offices and some retail, to see if things stay consistent or whether they ramp up. Hopefully they remain either consistent or slowly go down, but this is one of the cases where stupidity and self-interests can be detrimental on a massive scale.

While I would agree that Ohio seems to be better than many with early "containment", even the numbers you just used highlights an on-going "control" problem. (ie "500/day for weeks now") With everyone at home, they "Should" be going down, unless there is a problem with credibility, execution, compiance, etc..

Process-wise, you know when someone is doing "good" things, because the numbers quickly crest and then "consistently" come down. (& hence the reason I am hesitant to say anyone did a "good" job ) For me to know that I would need to know how Ohio addressed their PPE, the messaging to the public about the importance of everyone wearing masks, testing of their healthcare workers, how they addressed their nursing homes and correctional facilities, etc.. Bottom line, yes, he could have gotten lucky with an early decision that payed off well . . so far. However, if he has no strong "process controls" it won't last. I hope YOU are right and I am wrong

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

You make no mention of when to open up. Again, you started this thread sounding as if you were ready to pounce on states that open up then see an increase in cases/deaths (which we all know is going to happen because this virus isn't going anywhere). So yeah we can all wash our hands and keep at a distant but if you're going to be critical of states opening up too soon in your eyes then you had better have an alternate solution.

Sure I did ! - No one should be opening back up until their growth rates are down 70% ! So, if a state is adding new cases at a 1000/day clip, they shouldn't even be thinking about it until they are at 300/day ! 14 day trends mean nothing process control expert - you need massive improvement in the growth rates !

Sadly, to get these type of gains you need either credible leadership which "everyone" follows or a modern day miracle (weather, vaccine, etc..) You can't get there without everyone doing the same thing, so allowing people to just do there own thing is NUTS. Would we really allow people to do what they want during a war? -like leaving their lights on in their cities until 2 am or something? - of course not ! This should be no different

 

[hunkgolden]

Sure I did ! - No one should be opening back up until their growth rates are down 70% ! So, if a state is adding new cases at a 1000/day clip, they shouldn't even be thinking about it until they are at 300/day ! 14 day trends mean nothing process control expert - you need massive improvement in the growth rates !

Sadly, to get these type of gains you need either credible leadership which "everyone" follows or a modern day miracle (weather, vaccine, etc..) You can't get there without everyone doing the same thing, so allowing people to just do there own thing is NUTS. Would we really allow people to do what they want during a war? -like leaving their lights on in their cities until 2 am or something? - of course not ! This should be no different

Haven't looked at state by state data but has any state had a decrease of 70% in growth rates? If not, any state close to this figure?

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Let's see which states do a better job, with the summer coming. My guess is that the South will see a major flare up do to a number of issues. (not taking the virus as seriously/wearing masks & gloves in high traffic areas, lots of vacationers, etc..)

IF the numbers jump, we may see 5,000,000 cases by Fall. Let's hope people will finally see the threat to themselves and the country. (both health and economy)

this is so dumb. sparsely populated areas will do better. the end.

 

[hunkgolden]

this is so dumb. sparsely populated areas will do better. the end.

Yup - there are over 20 counties in Indiana that have had zero deaths.

 

[hunkgolden]

Sure I did ! - No one should be opening back up until their growth rates are down 70% ! So, if a state is adding new cases at a 1000/day clip, they shouldn't even be thinking about it until they are at 300/day ! 14 day trends mean nothing process control expert - you need massive improvement in the growth rates !

Sadly, to get these type of gains you need either credible leadership which "everyone" follows or a modern day miracle (weather, vaccine, etc..) You can't get there without everyone doing the same thing, so allowing people to just do there own thing is NUTS. Would we really allow people to do what they want during a war? -like leaving their lights on in their cities until 2 am or something? - of course not ! This should be no different

Also - if testing continues to ramp up the number of new cases is going to keep going up and up as a by product of the increased testing. Wouldn't a better barometer be hospitalizations and/or deaths?

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Also - if testing continues to ramp up the number of new cases is going to keep going up and up as a by product of the increased testing. Wouldn't a better barometer be hospitalizations and/or deaths?

I think this is a very fair question to debate. If people getting the virus can fully recover and have no underlying health conditions the next time, you could definitely make this case. If not, the total cases will better represent the total kinds of problems coming. (health, economic, longevity, those unable to work, etc..)

As a process guy, I focus on it because I know there is a relationship between cases and the other issues. (ie If cases go down, the others will as well.) However, as I highlighted, if people can fully recover, then it's more an issue of healthcare capacity/surge and better management of our elderly, as you suggest.

I just wouldn't bank on the assumption without more data. In the heat of the battle, I understand you always have to make quick decisions with long-term repercussions. I am just saying I know which way I would currently lean. (ie The one which gives us the best chance at recovering from it the fullest.) It may very well be overkill, but at this stage, I think it warrants being cautious, given all of the new things we are learning each week. IF . . it came out of a lab (whether accidental or not), as some are saying . . it was meant to kill long-term, not wound.

PS I am surprised that no one is talking about "piloting" different approaches to economic reopening. It would give the whole country a lot of very quick indicators on what does and doesn't work well (would think it would be easy to line up the participants for the studies)

 

[Purdue97]

Ahh ! an expert ! - welcome. Care to tell us all WHO is on your list for doing a GOOD job on containment and WHY you believe that?

Lol nice try. Some real serious projection there. The norm for your crew.

You, many on the left, the media, and some politicians have done nothing but critique everything that has been done.

I would just like to see any of the aforementioned give a specific plan for an area, ahead of time, and own it.

Praising NY and Cuomo crushes any credibility on the topic. Did you not hear of all of their statements back in Jan/FebMarch, ppl were still out at parks, he cried about ventilators and wanting help(USN ship) did not even need it, not preparing despite warnings in 2016, list goes on. He fought against the quarantine Trump wanted in that tristate area.

Dates? When to open? If you want closure til xyz has been met, what is your stimulus? I see a bunch of generalities in your posts that have already been enacted or recomended.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Lol nice try. Some real serious projection there. The norm for your crew.

You, many on the left, the media, and some politicians have done nothing but critique everything that has been done.

I would just like to see any of the aforementioned give a specific plan for an area, ahead of time, and own it.

Praising NY and Cuomo crushes any credibility on the topic. Did you not hear of all of their statements back in Jan/FebMarch, ppl were still out at parks, he cried about ventilators and wanting help(USN ship) did not even need it, not preparing despite warnings in 2016, list goes on. He fought against the quarantine Trump wanted in that tristate area.

Dates? When to open? If you want closure til xyz has been met, what is your stimulus? I see a bunch of generalities in your posts that have already been enacted or recomended.

You obviously didn't read my other comments on New York. I give him credit for leadership not for early containment. In fact, I gave him a D-

As for the LEFT comment, I appreciate that - it gave me a chuckle ! I have been on the RIGHT until recently. (So I am not sure which CREW you are referencing, but . . . it's ok)

 

[TMan92]

My PLAN has been consistent throughout (for anyone reading all of my posts and not just sniping) However, to save you time:

1.) We need "ACCURATE" testing and LOTS of it - Indiana needs at least 200,000 tests a day to start (Do people realize that current test are only catching making 30% before major symptoms?) Every medical worker should be tested every other day and all of our nursing homes and correctional facilities, with the balance used for tracing known cases, hot spots, people returning to work and those having over 100.5 temps or those with symptoms AND a recent contact with a COVID positive case (probably in that order of priority)
2.) We need leaders with credibility, facts and scientific information, so that the masses will follow their lead and their suggestions. (No comments about it NOT being worse than the common flu, no comments about drinking bleach and no comments suggesting it's OK to get around a lot of people !) As we now know, it only takes a few idiots and a crowd to start the next wave.
3.) We need more PPE ! Noone should be going back to work without it or without the adequate supplies needed in their working conditions ! (reusing them, not replacing them when they are compromised, etc.. is NOT acceptable
4.) We need EVERYONE wearing masks in public and we need to make a strong case for gloves ! (There are very few surfaces we have to worry about if people are wearing clean gloves)
5.) We need basic hand washing, laundry of items worn outside and cleaning of products brought into the house.
6.) Social distancing (6 feet "outside" with masks on & 10 feet inside. (Note: No major crowds inside other than grocery stores, etc.. until the growth rates have been cut by 70%. 14 day downward trends are nice but aren't sufficient ! A recent lab study showed that a sneeze or a cough can easily travel 12 feet and remain active for hours. (3-4 feet even with a mask "on") The numbers will come back QUICKLY, if we do not get the growth rates down SIGNIFICANTLY or . . have a breakthrough with hot weather helping us or a vaccine.
7.) Each state should be mandating standard procedures for restaurants and food preparation places so the public KNOWs ordering food for delivery is low risk. If they don't, normal traffic, which is needed for profits will not return.
8.) Services performed "inside" homes should be using respirators and gloves
9.) All businesses should be wearing masks when coming into contact with customers. Some still don't, and I won't go back until/unless they do. (and the economy needs all of us to come back and not just 40-50% of us)
10.) We need to immediately eliminate most of the tax breaks for the rich as those financial breaks are no longer affordable or viable for the nation
11.) We need healthcare for everyone, or there will always be things like this which will spread because people can't afford to seek help.

PS Yes, this is a lot, but that's the reason it was just NUTS that we didn't respond with more urgency up front. We are also finding out HOW important credible leadership is in a crisis. (You simply need everyone complying or the timeline will drag out longer, and longer and longer.) So for those worried about the economy, you should be stressing credible leadership, facts, plans and everyone's compliance to scientific guidelines to improve things QUICKLY - not next Fall or year. If you don't, you are just pinning your hopes on the weather, vaccines or a miracle - and you will have no idea how long those will take.

The lack of testing hit close to home today. I have an older cousin not in great health that died this morning from the virus. Most likely got it from an infected home healthcare worker.

Don't understand how we expect to not get crushed by this thing without having people involved with high risk people not being tested on a routine basis.

 

[Bethboilerfan]

The lack of testing hit close to home today. I have an older cousin not in great health that died this morning from the virus. Most likely got it from an infected home healthcare worker.

Don't understand how we expect to not get crushed by this thing without having people involved with high risk people not being tested on a routine basis.

My sympathy to you and your family. So sorry to hear this

 

[Purdue97]

You obviously didn't read my other comments on New York. I give him credit for leadership not for early containment. In fact, I gave him a D-

As for the LEFT comment, I appreciate that - it gave me a chuckle ! I have been on the RIGHT until recently. (So I am not sure which CREW you are referencing, but . . . it's ok)

Once again, no specifics. Par for the course. Hindsight is 20/20. Want to stay closed for longer-ok? Need a really big financial plan as well. And that is not an either or life vs money choice-if one cannot see how they are intertwined not sure what to say.

And reread my comment in regard to the left. You were separated from the left and media on purpose, not on accident.

 

[Purdue97]

The lack of testing hit close to home today. I have an older cousin not in great health that died this morning from the virus. Most likely got it from an infected home healthcare worker.

Don't understand how we expect to not get crushed by this thing without having people involved with high risk people not being tested on a routine basis.

Regularr testing/retesting/AB testing is not happening for quite some time. Over the last 30 years, much of this equipment/chemical production has been shifted overseas. Those countries have effectively nationalized those plants. This really emphasizes the need for this production/manufacturing to be brought home or to friendly countries.

Sorry to hear about your cousin, prayers.

 

[BoilerBF]

First major outbreak (ie when numbers are "doubling" each week) is NOT vague - it is SPECIFIC. You seem to want to talk about New York for political reasons, so I will share my comments on New York.

For New York, they hit this level in early March. From a mgmt. standpoint, you then look at how well they are are to contain it, LOWER the numbers and the speed at which they are doing it.

New York did a VERY poor job of "containment" up front, just as our Washington DC politicians did, but they are clearly "managing" their problem well "so far" as the numbers are consistently coming down. That does NOT mean they will "re-open" well. "Re-opening" is a different phase, with a different process, with different variables.

It only only means they are "currently" managing the "problem" well while people are at home. Why? Because their leader is respected by New Yorkers for his straightforward message and facts. Bottom line, people are heeding his warnings and are following his lead. He has credibility within the state, which is important in a crisis. (as any project mgr will tell you)

But, if you are trying to keep track of political pros and cons, you at least have to give Cuomo credit for marshalling the country towards the issues ( highlighting the testing and healthcare needs, PPE and hospital capacity issues, getting U.S. companies to start addressing them, clearly showing other states what they "specifically" have to do to address the virus, etc.. Has he done everything right - heck no, but on leadership he gets a high mark. On initial containment, he gets a D-, like our DC politicians. (NO early urgency or recognition of the SIZE of the problem)

Cuomo actions

1) threatened to sue other states and federal government....if they tried to prevent New Yorkers from traveling out of state & spreading the virus.

2) put in a new policy forcing New York Nursing homes to admit and readmit Covid 19 patients....while they were still contagious. What sense does that make? When finally asked about the policy, he doubled down on it. Instead of changing the policy, he launched an investigation into actions of Nursing Homes administrators.

3) For weeks Cuomo has been worked up about people going outside. The virus primarily spreads in homes, close indoor work environments and on subways. Just last week he finally started talking about subways. His solution to "keep riders safe".....disinfect subway ONE time per day (at night).

4) Mocked other states for having different approaches for different parts of their states. Recently he has finally figured out, a different approach is needed for upstate New York....vs NYC.

Cuomo is a very skilled politician. Mainstream tv media gives him 100% positive coverage....and applauds his every move.

I'm fine with giving Cuomo and all the rest of our leaders a bit of a pass on mistakes made, in a once in a 100 year event. This is a very complex issue, with no easy solutions/strategies. But if we are going to evaluate leaders (with the benefit of hindsight), Coumo has been one of the worst performing governors.....based on actions taken at every phase of Virus strategy

 

[hunkgolden]

Regularr testing/retesting/AB testing is not happening for quite some time. Over the last 30 years, much of this equipment/chemical production has been shifted overseas. Those countries have effectively nationalized those plants. This really emphasizes the need for this production/manufacturing to be brought home or to friendly countries.

Sorry to hear about your cousin, prayers.

In case anyone wants to know why we have a lack of testing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

 

[PurdueFan1]

The lack of testing hit close to home today. I have an older cousin not in great health that died this morning from the virus. Most likely got it from an infected home healthcare worker.

Don't understand how we expect to not get crushed by this thing without having people involved with high risk people not being tested on a routine basis.

I’m very sorry to hear this, T.

My boss lost her father and uncle to the virus and her cousin is in the hospital now on a ventilator with the virus. It can be utterly devastating.

 

[Purdue97]

In case anyone wants to know why we have a lack of testing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

Generally do not disagree. I think that was a good article for two months ago. I think Trump took care of the FDA red tape deal in a short amount of time.

The standardized test is a good point as well. The other issue with that is one has to know what they are testing for, develop, a test, manufacture it, make sure it is accurate, then be able to manufacture it.

Here are articlese as it relates to N95 and PPE gear but it has also gone on in other areas as well. Suddenly China cares about export standards. And that part about China, viruses, exporting them is something new too.

The top 2 articles are roughly the same as re the bottom two. I figured I would include different sources as people tend to bash some of them. Anyway, the Chinese are not our friend.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-nationalization-n-95-mask-112034545.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/mil...warehouses-chinese-export-restrictions-2020-4

https://www.nationalreview.com/news...sars-mers-viruses-at-detroit-airport-in-2018/

https://news.yahoo.com/border-patrol-stopped-chinese-biologist-194214726.html

 

[PurdueFan1]

In case anyone wants to know why we have a lack of testing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

Testing should be THE number one priority. Period. It gets downplayed a LOT by Trump, and yes we could go round and round about why that is, but I just do not understand why it’s not the number one priority, a vaccine and/or treatment not withstanding. I just don’t see how we return to a fully functioning society without us drowning in tests.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I think I can say with decent certainty that my home state of Ohio has done a better than average job with this. Dewine was one of the first governors to cancel school and implement social distancing restrictions. He also cancelled the Arnold Expo classic early (if you remember from the "Are you concerned about the Coronovirus" thread), which at the time seemed like an overreaction on March 3rd, but ended up being the right decision. Maybe he just got lucky, but he has been pretty consistent with his messaging.

There are quantifiable results as well. I don't think many people realize that Ohio is the 7th most populous state in the union, and is 11th in population density (higher than California, Illinois, and Texas). Yet we are currently sitting 15th in total cases (and for the record, 10% of our cases all came from a large correctional institution, ~2400 cases. Without those, we'd be closer to 17th). For perspective, Ohio has almost double the population of Indiana and has 100 more people per square mile density wise (288 vs 188), yet Indiana has more cases (~+500) and more deaths (~+200). I have also yet to hear of any significant shortages of PPE / ventilators.

So yeah, I'd say Ohio has done pretty well. Things are starting to open back up (I am back in the office), but we are all in masks here. I honestly think we are opening things up a little early (the statewide cases have been pretty consistently +500 per day for weeks now, which is good, but not definitively falling off), but it will likely depend upon how well people follow the masking rules.

I would say that Dewine has been handling things up until now with a proactive approach, but we will now be shifting to a reactive approach. We are testing things by opening up offices and some retail, to see if things stay consistent or whether they ramp up. Hopefully they remain either consistent or slowly go down, but this is one of the cases where stupidity and self-interests can be detrimental on a massive scale.

Dewine is so much better than Kasich ever was. I know a lot of folks in Ohio who were ready to run Kasich out of the state.

 

[gleap1969]

In case anyone wants to know why we have a lack of testing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

And bureaucratic red tape is not the main reason as you stated on March 15. The article list four reasons, of which, I would attach the greatest blame on #4.

 

[TheCainer]

You entirely missed his point. What's your plan Stan?

Did you ever find those goal posts?

Looks like you're not quite as busy now.

 

[ecouch]

My PLAN has been consistent throughout (for anyone reading all of my posts and not just sniping) However, to save you time:

1.) We need "ACCURATE" testing and LOTS of it - Indiana needs at least 200,000 tests a day to start (Do people realize that current test are only catching making 30% before major symptoms?) Every medical worker should be tested every other day and all of our nursing homes and correctional facilities, with the balance used for tracing known cases, hot spots, people returning to work and those having over 100.5 temps or those with symptoms AND a recent contact with a COVID positive case (probably in that order of priority)
2.) We need leaders with credibility, facts and scientific information, so that the masses will follow their lead and their suggestions. (No comments about it NOT being worse than the common flu, no comments about drinking bleach and no comments suggesting it's OK to get around a lot of people !) As we now know, it only takes a few idiots and a crowd to start the next wave.
3.) We need more PPE ! Noone should be going back to work without it or without the adequate supplies needed in their working conditions ! (reusing them, not replacing them when they are compromised, etc.. is NOT acceptable
4.) We need EVERYONE wearing masks in public and we need to make a strong case for gloves ! (There are very few surfaces we have to worry about if people are wearing clean gloves)
5.) We need basic hand washing, laundry of items worn outside and cleaning of products brought into the house.
6.) Social distancing (6 feet "outside" with masks on & 10 feet inside. (Note: No major crowds inside other than grocery stores, etc.. until the growth rates have been cut by 70%. 14 day downward trends are nice but aren't sufficient ! A recent lab study showed that a sneeze or a cough can easily travel 12 feet and remain active for hours. (3-4 feet even with a mask "on") The numbers will come back QUICKLY, if we do not get the growth rates down SIGNIFICANTLY or . . have a breakthrough with hot weather helping us or a vaccine.
7.) Each state should be mandating standard procedures for restaurants and food preparation places so the public KNOWs ordering food for delivery is low risk. If they don't, normal traffic, which is needed for profits will not return.
8.) Services performed "inside" homes should be using respirators and gloves
9.) All businesses should be wearing masks when coming into contact with customers. Some still don't, and I won't go back until/unless they do. (and the economy needs all of us to come back and not just 40-50% of us)
10.) We need to immediately eliminate most of the tax breaks for the rich as those financial breaks are no longer affordable or viable for the nation
11.) We need healthcare for everyone, or there will always be things like this which will spread because people can't afford to seek help.

PS Yes, this is a lot, but that's the reason it was just NUTS that we didn't respond with more urgency up front. We are also finding out HOW important credible leadership is in a crisis. (You simply need everyone complying or the timeline will drag out longer, and longer and longer.) So for those worried about the economy, you should be stressing credible leadership, facts, plans and everyone's compliance to scientific guidelines to improve things QUICKLY - not next Fall or year. If you don't, you are just pinning your hopes on the weather, vaccines or a miracle - and you will have no idea how long those will take.

Does the governor know that you are a "process guy" with the "best numbers" on a free sports board?

Thanks for the laughs, man. Keep posting. You are a bright spot.

Good for you for taking off the mask and admitting your goal is political though.