If we're not one of the top 68 teams, there shouldn't be a tourney.
- Thread starter *4purdue*
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Their RPI is 175. Gardner-Webb actually has a higher RPI at 157. At the end of the day, these losses are what will make the difference if we get in or not. Right now Purdue and Illinois have the same RPI - 58. Illinois has no losses against sub-150 RPI teams and Purdue has 2. We need to beat Illinois and hope for the best. BPI is different, we are higher than IU and U of I, lower than Iowa. I also think we need to improve our SOS and quit playing so many weak teams. Purdue's SOS is 80, only OSU (88) and Penn State (96) are lower than Purdue in the B1G.
You have to be one of the top 40 or 45 teams to feel really confident. Not in the RPI, BPI, Sagarin, or Pomeroy but in the collective minds of the selection committee.
The challenge with Purdue is that we weren't even in the top-100 after collapsing in our last 3 non-conf games. But, we've probably been in the top-25 over the past 6 weeks. So we'll see.
We've got two more solid chances againt fellow bubble teams followed by the B1G tournament. The guys can't take anything for granted. They need every win they can get.
The challenge with Purdue is that we weren't even in the top-100 after collapsing in our last 3 non-conf games. But, we've probably been in the top-25 over the past 6 weeks. So we'll see.
We've got two more solid chances againt fellow bubble teams followed by the B1G tournament. The guys can't take anything for granted. They need every win they can get.
I'm not sure it's that cut-and-dried, jadeezra. Purdue has engineered a remarkable turnaround. But its overall resume is still weighed down by the December meltdown, and conference finish is irrelevant - just ask Alabama and Kentucky.
Both have missed the tournament in recent years despite winning 12 SEC games. Alabama in 2011 and 2013 was eerily simlar to Purdue this year where a strong run in a so-so SEC was not enough to offset bad early losses. Kentucky missed in 2013 despite winning 12 conference games, having better non-conf losses than Purdue has now and being the defending national champion.
Purdue's problems don't end with the bad December losses. The B1G isn't as good as it has been in recent years. It has only 2 top-25 teams, and both beat Purdue. Despite our remarkable turnaround, Purdue has still only beaten only one team (Ohio State #36) that is currently in the top-40 (CBS RPI). We have a nice collection of wins against teams ranked 40-90. They help, but they hardly make us a lock.
It's hard to imagine Purdue would be left out if we win our next two. But it's also hard for me to see how winning only one more makes us a lock.
This post was edited on 3/2 10:55 AM by rgarlitz
Both have missed the tournament in recent years despite winning 12 SEC games. Alabama in 2011 and 2013 was eerily simlar to Purdue this year where a strong run in a so-so SEC was not enough to offset bad early losses. Kentucky missed in 2013 despite winning 12 conference games, having better non-conf losses than Purdue has now and being the defending national champion.
Purdue's problems don't end with the bad December losses. The B1G isn't as good as it has been in recent years. It has only 2 top-25 teams, and both beat Purdue. Despite our remarkable turnaround, Purdue has still only beaten only one team (Ohio State #36) that is currently in the top-40 (CBS RPI). We have a nice collection of wins against teams ranked 40-90. They help, but they hardly make us a lock.
It's hard to imagine Purdue would be left out if we win our next two. But it's also hard for me to see how winning only one more makes us a lock.
This post was edited on 3/2 10:55 AM by rgarlitz
Ar you really comparing the B1G to the SEC RE basketball??
The SEC is a joke. The B1G is premier. Gimme a break, d00d!
the things that tom crean has done for the entire big ten are remarkable... he's just such a strong and ferocious leader.
a junkyard dog... the big ten's caliber and class are raised tremendously with him in it. im awfully proud of tom, dude just never backs down from anyone.
a junkyard dog... the big ten's caliber and class are raised tremendously with him in it. im awfully proud of tom, dude just never backs down from anyone.
I don't know, jadeezra. I just hope we're not dismissing data that doesn't fit our preferred narrative.
I'm thrilled that the team has played as well as it has over the past six weeks. But i'm also cognizant that the bulk of our success has come against B1G teams not called Wisconsin or Maryland. And our league just doesn't carry the weight it has the past couple years.
I'm not trying to be a downer. I'm just trying to be realistic. Purdue has to finish strong.
I'm thrilled that the team has played as well as it has over the past six weeks. But i'm also cognizant that the bulk of our success has come against B1G teams not called Wisconsin or Maryland. And our league just doesn't carry the weight it has the past couple years.
I'm not trying to be a downer. I'm just trying to be realistic. Purdue has to finish strong.
You do realize that Jerry Palm/CBSSports has 8 B1G schools playing in the Tourney, the most of any Conference??
Might not be 8 in the end, but I'd say that's hardly "not carrying the weight we have the past couple years."
Ok, Clean, leave the SEC out of it if you want. But I'm not sure this year's B1G is as strong as you're making it out to be.
As of this morning we have ONE (1) win against the RPI top-40. My point was, that (along with bad non-conf losses) is what kept Alabama out in 2011 and 2013.
We can look down our noses against the SEC all we want, but the cases are still remarkably similar.
Again, i'm not trying to be a nay-sayer. I think Purdue will find its way into the tournament. I just don't think 1 mor win guarantees it given 1) our December losses, 2) the collective profile of the B1G teams we've beaten, and 3) the committee's recent history with cases that were very similar to ours.
As of this morning we have ONE (1) win against the RPI top-40. My point was, that (along with bad non-conf losses) is what kept Alabama out in 2011 and 2013.
We can look down our noses against the SEC all we want, but the cases are still remarkably similar.
Again, i'm not trying to be a nay-sayer. I think Purdue will find its way into the tournament. I just don't think 1 mor win guarantees it given 1) our December losses, 2) the collective profile of the B1G teams we've beaten, and 3) the committee's recent history with cases that were very similar to ours.
its really about the clout and swagger that tom crean brings to the big ten every single day.
his intimidation tactics will not go unnoticed by the selection committee.. i can guarantee you that
his intimidation tactics will not go unnoticed by the selection committee.. i can guarantee you that
The 8-team prediction requires all of Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, and MSU to make it. I'd be surprised if that actually happens.
We probably have to beat Illinois to get in, but that could be the end for the Illini. Whoever loses that Iowa-Indiana game could be in trouble. A MSU loss to Purdue would slide Sparty further down the S-curve.
This post was edited on 3/2 11:25 AM by rgarlitz
We probably have to beat Illinois to get in, but that could be the end for the Illini. Whoever loses that Iowa-Indiana game could be in trouble. A MSU loss to Purdue would slide Sparty further down the S-curve.
This post was edited on 3/2 11:25 AM by rgarlitz
Aside from the SEC stuff, and B1G being "not as strong", I pretty much agree w everything you're saying.
If we only beat ILL to finish the season I will be very nervous. BTT may help, but it will be a big battle there too (and the ILL win is no gimme).
Also, at RealTimeRPI IU is #37 and tOSU is #40, so that's three wins vs Top 40. Guess it depends on where you look.
(ESPN has BYU at 40, and Iowa and NCST inside the Top 50)
ESPN also says we have 6 Top 50 wins. I think Top 50 is the metric used, not Top 40.
This post was edited on 3/2 11:40 AM by Cleanface
Ya, I'll be confident if Purdue sweeps its next two. If Purdue goes 1-1 I'd say we probably better beat a top-50 team in the B1G tourney to feel really safe. Go 0-2 and we might have to get to to the tourney final.
As for the SEC, I'm looking at the updated CBS RPI, and I just don't see a world of difference between the two leagues. The SEC is a little more top and bottom heavy with Kentucky and two teams that are lower than Rutgers. But other than that, both leagues have 2 in the to-25, 6 in the top-50, and 10 in the top-100.
As for the SEC, I'm looking at the updated CBS RPI, and I just don't see a world of difference between the two leagues. The SEC is a little more top and bottom heavy with Kentucky and two teams that are lower than Rutgers. But other than that, both leagues have 2 in the to-25, 6 in the top-50, and 10 in the top-100.
Crazy things can happen.
Remember Washington won 2012 pac12 regular season, went 21-9, had 2-3 bad non conference losses and went to the nit.
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Remember Washington won 2012 pac12 regular season, went 21-9, had 2-3 bad non conference losses and went to the nit.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
PAC 10 was remarkably bad for a few years if you remember. I wouldn't want to see a 21 win A10 team get an at large bid.
i pray every night that we get purdue in the btt...
we will curb stomp them now that their little cinderella run is over.. haha its march which means its time for the real powers to step up... see ya purdue...
we will curb stomp them now that their little cinderella run is over.. haha its march which means its time for the real powers to step up... see ya purdue...
The tournament isn't the 64 best teams. I think there are 32 automatic qualifiers, then the next 32 best teams (or 36, depending on if auto qualifiers play in the play-in games). If a team wins its league tourney and wouldn't have made the field otherwise, that is when bubble teams are really hurt.
It's hard to predict these situations or which conferences might reduce the bubble. Might want to watch Missouri Valley, West Coast, Big East, and Mountain West. These all have ranked teams or near-ranked that will make the field regardless. Any outliers that win those tourneys will definitely cost spots for teams in other conferences looking for at-large bids.
I still don't see more than six from the Big Ten.....
I think it will shake out that Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, and Illinois are fighting for three spots. At least two of those teams I don't think will make it. We'll see. JMO
