You have these players stats wrong for their freshman seasons.
Kyle Lowry shot 22.7% (5/22)
Butler shot 0% (0/4)
Wall shot 32.5% (37/114)
Derozan shot 16% (6/36)
How did Painter lose Phinesee?
- Thread starter bonefish1
- Start date
Kyle Lowry shot 22.7% (5/22)
Butler shot 0% (0/4)
Wall shot 32.5% (37/114)
Derozan shot 16% (6/36)
BCB, are you telling me that the data cited is incorrect? Why would I budge when the data doesn't disagree with my position?
We would trade anyone on the P roster ( except for Edwards) for Langford.
That might well be correct but it was not the point of the discussion. The point of the discussion was that RL's 3 pt shooting made him risky as a Top5 pick. As a high risk pick GMs might not want to take that risk at that draft position and move him down.
Then, I was told to look at a peer group. I did. All listed were significantly better from 3. I didn't make up the peer group.
Then I was told that Gordon was revered for his 3 pt shooting yet he is not in the Top 10; so much for reverance.
It is certainly possible to make a high risk choice and make it pay off. In poker, you can draw to an inside straight. At the race track, 99/1 shots do win. The problem that in each case it does not happen often.
I was citing their pro data.
With the exception of Wall, the sample set is way too small as you yourself have noted - as you needed 10 games for your significant set. Wall was approximately the same in college and pros if I recall his number correctly.
I’m not talking about all time. I’m talking current. He’s the reigning NBA 3 point champion. He’s currently considered one of the best 3 point shooters in the game and has been for the last couple years. Stop being dense. I provided you an example of someone who became a better 3 point shooter from college to the NBA. Why are you nitpicking every single detail?
Lol so it's too small a sample size to judge the players I mentioned on their entire freshman year, but you can judge Romeo on 11 games? Ummm... okay.
Wait a minute, you were the one who maintained that 10 games was a significant data set. Now you are backing off that.
That's fine, but don't claim that I was the one that picked that number, you did. I was simply using what you stated.
That's fine, but don't claim that I was the one that picked that number, you did. I was simply using what you stated.
No, I still think it is a significant data set. I also think the ENTIRE season of data from the players I mentioned is significant enough data. You said to name all star guards that struggled with shooting in college. I named 5 on last year's all star roster alone that struggled to shoot their freshman year in college.
Not a chance in the world that he is a top 5 pick...at this point, he is not even top 5 in the B1G. He is not even the best player on his own team at this point (Morgan).
Probably not top 5, but easily top 10. But your data of argument is irrelevant. The two best players in the B10 (Happ and Edwards) likely won’t be drafted in the first round and I doubt Happ is drafted period. The NBA drafts on potential which is almost explicable why Romeo will be a top 10 pick. Cam Reddish is the third best player on Duke and he’s still likely a top 5 pick. It’s just how the NBA draft works.
Being top 5 in the B1G, or on his team has little to do with draft position. Carsen is currently a better college player than Romeo. Romeo will be drafted significantly higher than Carsen next year.
(Also, Romeo is the best player on our team, and top 5 in the big ten.)
Agree that he’s not a T5 pick. Probably lower lottery. But he’s pretty good.
For the love of all that is holy, just knock it off you two. Romeo is a good player. His 3-ball % is weak right now. It might get better or it might get worse. He might be an NBA all-star or he might not. No amount of pissing into the wind on this message board is going to prove either side right. Not for another 10 years at least; I pray that JDB shuts this thread down as it looks like it will last that long if he doesn’t.
As Arc said, 33% is good. It's like hitting 50% from 2-pt range. If Langford was hitting near 33% from 3, no one would be questioning his readiness.
Would be awesome if he came back. He's already dominant at the college level. Another year and he would be a NPOY candidate.
Surely you realize that one has little to do with the other.
They’re not unrelated, of course. But the NBA doesn’t look at a prospect and ask “Is he the best player on his team?”
As of today, Happ and Edwards are better B10 players than Langford. Few people would disagree with that. But could anybody say with a straight face that either of them should, as of today, expect to be drafted higher than him?
Things can change. Oladipo’s draft stock rose significantly late in, and after, his junior season. It’s conceivable that Edwards would be drafted higher than RL. But, where things stand now, it’s unlikely.
Yes, the NBA draft is far more about potential than actual production...and, Langford's draft position will be based on that as well.
My point was that he is absolutely not a top 5 pick...based on production, but, based on potential even as well.
Just being honest, the guy seems extremely disinterested right now...as if he is there solely because he has to be there (which, is also admittedly in part the case).
I won't be shocked if he ends up coming back unless things change fairly dramatically between now and March...and, they definitely could. Swanigan benefited by doing that...he may as well.
He always looks disinterested, that's just how he is, even in high school. It's not because he doesn't want to be there. Heard an interview with him recently where he said as a kid he used to get heated during games, really started mouthing off to the refs. His dad told him not to wear his emotions on his sleeve, don't show how you're feeling. He took it to heart and began trying not to show any emotion while playing, even though inside he's very competitive and definitely cares about what he's doing out there.
Well, I don’t have much of an opinion on where exactly he will (or would) be picked — other than I suspect it’ll be in the top half of the first round. Time will tell on that.
But you connected his draft stock with his value to IU’s team as compared to Juwan Morgan. And that’s simply irrelevant to where he’ll be drafted.
Kevin Porter is probably going to be a lottery pick and he’s the third leading scorer (at 11.7 ppg) on a mediocre USC team.
I sure hope you’re right. Phinisee, Langford, Hunter (if he plays again), Brooks (maybe), and TJD. Yeah, I’d be alright with that starting 5.
As crazy as it sounds, that may work against him staying in that it would potentially impact his own stats and associated value. It would be an impressive line-up for certain...and, goes to show just how well Miller has done (especially relative to Painter) when it comes to recruiting.
Just as was the case with Swanigan, it will all depend on what he hears from NBA personnel this summer...Swanigan benefited by/from returning...he might also.
He's not coming back unless something extreme happens. And hunter will play again. That's not even a question.
I’ve been interested in hearing a comparison for him. Was Isiah Thompson good? Who did he play for?
I would agree with this post, ex the Hunter comment and that is because of a lack of knowledge on the health situation.
However, not coming back is very different from being a Top5, which was the mantra repeated here many times.
He’s not coming back. He’s going to be a top 10 pick. I wish he would be almost zero chance it happens. If he goes its because of a horrible injury. Let’s hope against that.
The point made all along was that NBA GMs said he was Top5. That was Gospel and if challenged, was met with derison. My point was that his production made a Top5 pick very risky. Risk is often avoided for a more likely outcome even if the potential payoff is smaller. Subsequent production has supported that statement. I also pointed out that draft order was not established and thus the needs of the teams choosing might not favor him.
Does that mean he will not be Top5? No, it does not. It does reduce the probabilities. It also does not mean that he won't get drafted. I did point out that his style was not necessarily favorable for a 2-guard. This, of course, was then met with mention of certain 2-guards whose style might be similar. However, the only one chosen with any comparable 3 pt college stats, assuming a certain minimum number that gives you any idea, was Wall and his college and pro stats are almost identical. It is also fair to point out Wall is 33% vs RL's 22%. That's a big difference.
Could things change? Of course they can. But I am placing my expectations based upon probabilities with the recognition that long shots do come in first and someone does win the lottery. It is just that the probabilties are low.
How is his production risky? He's shooting 50% from the field averaging 18 points a game. He has shown a pretty damn good mid-range game with a step back that at times is unguardable due to his 6'10 wing span. He can get to the hole. He draws fouls as he leads the B10 in FTA/game. He isn't a knock down 3 point shooter, but he also isn't a volume 3 point shooter either, that's why his % is skewed. No player, coach, or team in America is going to give Romeo an uncontested 3 pointer because he is more than capable of hitting one.
Well, there's no arguing that he's yet to find his stroke from the perimeter. But you're certainly right that he's wisely limiting his attempts. Apparently he's smart enough to know that, as things stand, a Romeo Langford 3FG attempt probably isn't the kind of shot we want to get out of a half-court possession.
I can remember the first part of Yogi's freshman year. I cringed every single time he launched one from beyond 12 feet. He drew more iron than a painter at a 24-hour laundromat.
You do realize that he is leading the team in 3 pt attempts. He also has the worst percentage of any player taking them. If you are going to leave anyone on the team, it is most likely him.
You are correct, he is probably the guy you want to have shoot a 3 until he can prove he can hit it consistently.
BAB, I looked up Gordon's college and pro stats. He shot 34% while at IU from 3. In the pros he is 37% all-time, 29% this year. 37 > 34 but if trend continues for the rest of the year he may be below 37. It is admittedly better, but not by a huge amount. Also recognizing potential regression to the mean. Given the data between Wall and Gordon, there are pretty strong indications that what you shoot in college in what you shoot in the pros.
Cropper, if you follow the thread, the peer group given had only one player (Wall) who took enough 3 pt shots, the topic of the discussion, and who was a 2 guard to be a valid measure. Then Gordon was introduced. We had two who seemed appropriate for comparison. In Wall's case, his college and 3 pt % were almost identical. In Gordon's case, he was higher in the pros but not by much. The logical conclusion was that there is not a great deal of difference between the different levels. If you have another or better comparison, please provide.
