Top 16 Preview - Predictions

[Purdue0034]

Florida sucks! A #3 seed what a joke! Butler ahead of us too. That's a joke too! The RPI is so flawed. The committee shows their ignorance and it is obvious they are barely watching any games. Florida beat Kentucky at home - who cares. Kentucky just phoned it in and didn't even show up! We destroyed Florida by 15 last year and I think it is safe to say if we played them again we would take them to the woodshed again! Looks like we will have to go 9 and 0 and finish 29 and 5 just to get a #4 seed! I am getting tired of this crap from the committee! They always try to screw us and usually do. They aren't even close to being fair and reasonable.

 

[nagemj02]

Did Butler lose to Providence today? Yeah, I was surprised Florida was a #3 as well. I don't know their full resume. I just know they beat Kentucky at home recently and beat Texas A&M today. Keep cool. I think they'll drop some games before The Big Dance is here. We just need the Boilers to bring their best ball.

 

[Purdue0034]

True. We just need to play our best and not leave it up to the committee. I do think if we win out, we have to be a #3 seed at the worst!

 

[nagemj02]

Butler lost. So, I think Wisconsin or the Boilers would take their spot as a projected #4 seed now. Don't worry too much about it. This stuff is going to change nearly every day.

 

[Dryfly88]

Dryfly, the committee did stray from the RPI rankings when they included #33 WVU in the top 16. Though RPI isn't great at ranking teams 1-351, it is a known formula. That means you can figure out why a team might have an RPI that seems way too high or way too low, and you can adjust the team's ranking accordingly (I agree with you that the committee usually doesn't vary things enough). That brings us to Florida...

RPI uses a multiplier that values road wins > neutral wins > home wins (and vice versa for losses). UF played their cupcake non-conf opponents at "neutral sites" in Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland this season because of home court renovations. Those 7 neutral site wins (2 more than any other team) are a real factor behind UF's lofty RPI. I'm not sure how the committee can justify UF's #11 ranking with the inflated RPI, the 1-4 record vs the top 25, and the 4-5 record vs the top 50.

You're right they don't always use the RPI and in this case (WVU) they were right not to. There is no way WVU is #33. That is a joke and just reinforces my point of how ridiculous it is.

WVU

RPI - #33
BPI - #3
KenPom #4

It's a joke of a metric.

 

[Chauncey1986]

For some reason they love Gonzaga though they never win anything.

St. Mary's by 4 tonight

 

[FirstDownB]

You're right they don't always use the RPI and in this case (WVU) they were right not to. There is no way WVU is #33. That is a joke and just reinforces my point of how ridiculous it is.

WVU

RPI - #33
BPI - #3
KenPom #4

It's a joke of a metric.

Just because the committed strayed from the RPI ranking doesn't necessarily mean they strayed from RPI. SOS and top 50/100 wins are also based on RPI. I'm sure West Virginia's 7 top 50 RPI wins were discussed in the room versus Purdue's 5. Those numbers would be different if it were Top 50 Kenpom or Sagarin wins.

The cheat sheet is so dripping with RPI stats it is nearly impossible for the committee to look away from it.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Just because the committed strayed from the RPI ranking doesn't necessarily mean they strayed from RPI. SOS and top 50/100 wins are also based on RPI. I'm sure West Virginia's 7 top 50 RPI wins were discussed in the room versus Purdue's 5. Those numbers would be different if it were Top 50 Kenpom or Sagarin wins.

The cheat sheet is so dripping with RPI stats it is nearly impossible for the committee to look away from it.

 

[Dryfly88]

Just because the committed strayed from the RPI ranking doesn't necessarily mean they strayed from RPI. SOS and top 50/100 wins are also based on RPI. I'm sure West Virginia's 7 top 50 RPI wins were discussed in the room versus Purdue's 5. Those numbers would be different if it were Top 50 Kenpom or Sagarin wins.

The cheat sheet is so dripping with RPI stats it is nearly impossible for the committee to look away from it.

Agreed. Even though ESPN has a much better metric in the BPI they have to continue to show RPI in the "resume" of each team. PU needs to finish strong down the stretch and we will get that top 4 seed. I just hope it doesn't come down to us being on the "bubble" of a 4 seed because that RPI will hurt us.

 

[FirstDownB]

Agreed. Even though ESPN has a much better metric in the BPI they have to continue to show RPI in the "resume" of each team. PU needs to finish strong down the stretch and we will get that top 4 seed. I just hope it doesn't come down to us being on the "bubble" of a 4 seed because that RPI will hurt us.

I'm not even worried about the seed. I think it's all going to come down to matchups and which Purdue team shows up. The main burr in my saddle (other than the principle of RPI being a crap metric) is that after a really good season Purdue is on the outside looking in for the Indy pod in the first round.

 

[Boiler Wolf]

I think the early top 4 seeds in each region announcement is a waste. They announced it today and already today's games are changing things. Butler lost to a mediocre Providence team for example.