Top 16 Preview - Predictions

[FirstDownB]

Curious what others' predictions are for tomorrow's show. The thing I am primarily interested in is how closely the rankings are to RPI or other metrics. I think that will make predicting the final bracket a bit easier.

My predictions:
1. Villanova
2. Gonzaga
3. Kansas
4. Baylor
5. Florida St.
6. North Carolina
7. Arizona
8. Louisville
9. Oregon
10. Kentucky
11. UCLA
12. Duke
13. Florida
14. Virginia
15. Wisconsin
16. Cincinnati

If they show the first 4 out: Butler, Purdue, West Virginia, Creighton

 

[proudopete]

Curious what others' predictions are for tomorrow's show. The thing I am primarily interested in is how closely the rankings are to RPI or other metrics. I think that will make predicting the final bracket a bit easier.

My predictions:
1. Villanova
2. Gonzaga
3. Kansas
4. Baylor
5. Florida St.
6. North Carolina
7. Arizona
8. Louisville
9. Oregon
10. Kentucky
11. UCLA
12. Duke
13. Florida
14. Virginia
15. Wisconsin
16. Cincinnati

If they show the first 4 out: Butler, Purdue, West Virginia, Creighton

I don't get the love for UK or Cincy. I can see how Duke may jump is after last night, but the other two I don't see.

 

[Purdue0034]

Florida is playing a little better lately, but they are over-rated!

 

[TC4THREE]

I think we will be in it.

 

[krazyjvilled]

If we aren't in the top 16 then I dont know what to say

 

[FirstDownB]

If we aren't in the top 16 then I dont know what to say

It wouldn't surprise me any more than the 5 seed last year.

The metric/crutch (RPI) the NCAA committee typically leans on currently favors teams like Florida, Kentucky, Cincinnati, even Butler over Purdue. Will be curious to see if there is any indication of change this year.

 

[Dryfly88]

It wouldn't surprise me any more than the 5 seed last year.

The metric/crutch (RPI) the NCAA committee typically leans on currently favors teams like Florida, Kentucky, Cincinnati, even Butler over Purdue. Will be curious to see if there is any indication of change this year.

I'm afraid that stupid crutch (I like that description) RPI is going to be our downfall. As of right now here are the different metrics for PU:

RPI - 20th (this does not reflect the IU win)
BPI - 9th
KenPom - 11th

Unfortunately RPI is the only one that is part of their criteria this year.

 

[jadeezra]

I'm afraid that stupid crutch (I like that description) RPI is going to be our downfall. As of right now here are the different metrics for PU:

RPI - 20th (this does not reflect the IU win)
BPI - 9th
KenPom - 11th

Unfortunately RPI is the only one that is part of their criteria this year.

I hate that too I find it personally to be the least accurate of all of them.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I'm afraid that stupid crutch (I like that description) RPI is going to be our downfall. As of right now here are the different metrics for PU:

RPI - 20th (this does not reflect the IU win)
BPI - 9th
KenPom - 11th

Unfortunately RPI is the only one that is part of their criteria this year.

Part being the key, not the be-all-end-all....though, I agree that it is not helping the Boilers. All they can do is finish strong and keep improving.....then be prepared and play whomever gets placed with them.

 

[Dryfly88]

Part being the key, not the be-all-end-all....though, I agree that it is not helping the Boilers. All they can do is finish strong and keep improving.....then be prepared and play whomever gets placed with them.

I hope I'm wrong Tex, but it seems like in past years is was very common for the committee chair to mention RPI when he was questioned about certain seeds. They also show it when ESPN is doing the "blind resume" team pick'em. It is just a terrible metric and drives me crazy that it is still used at all.

One quick example from the latest RPI:

#20 - PU
#21 - UCLA
#22 - SMU
#23 - Minnesota

WTF? Anyone that has even watched a little college basketball this year wouldn't have PU and UCLA anywhere close to those other two schools. It's just a horribly inaccurate measurement. End of rant.....

 

[*4purdue*]

What time is that on?

 

[Dryfly88]

What time is that on?

12:30 EST Saturday CBS

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I hope I'm wrong Tex, but it seems like in past years is was very common for the committee chair to mention RPI when he was questioned about certain seeds. They also show it when ESPN is doing the "blind resume" team pick'em. It is just a terrible metric and drives me crazy that it is still used at all.

One quick example from the latest RPI:

#20 - PU
#21 - UCLA
#22 - SMU
#23 - Minnesota

WTF? Anyone that has even watched a little college basketball this year wouldn't have PU and UCLA anywhere close to those other two schools. It's just a horribly inaccurate measurement. End of rant.....

I hear your concern, which is valid to me.....it's been overly relied upon. It needn't be, but it appears it is.

To help ease your frustration, I recommend "converting" the R-PI into some R-OH.

Cheers.....

 

[SqueakyClean]

Yup. We will not be in the top 16. If I had to guess, we are probably sitting around 18 or 19 in the curve. Now, if this top 16 announcement was on Sunday night, it's possible that we would rise above the cut because there are some pretty tough matchups this weekend: KSU @ #13 WVU, #15 KY @ Alabama, #22 Butler @ Providence, #14 FSU @ ND (this one would be double helpful as it could knock FSU out while improving our schedule strength), #19 South Carolina @ MSU, #11 Cincinnati @ #25 SMU, #12 Virginia @ VT. I could easily see half those teams losing and the Boilers moving up to the #16 spot.

 

[Cleanface]

I hate that too I find it personally to be the least accurate of all of them.

In my opinion, the one that is most accurate is the one that has Purdue the highest.

That's just me tho.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Would any one be surprised to see no B1G teams in this initial listing?

 

[delish1]

Would any one be surprised to see no B1G teams in this initial listing?

Wisconsin will at least be in it. It might be lower than the ap poll suggests though.

I also think purdue will be a 4. I think the committee will value purdue's road wins and cut a little slack for losses. Right now the boilers have 3 top 25 losses and two top 100 road losses. None of those are unreasonable

 

[TC4THREE]

RPI (thru Wednesday games)

1. (6) Baylor (won at OK St Wednesday)
2. (2) Villanova (beat Georgetown Tuesday)
3. (3) Kansas (won at K State Monday)
4. (8) UNC (loss at Duke Thursday)
5. (4) Louisville (lost at Virginia Monday)
6. (14) FSU (beat NC St. Wednesday)
7. (22) Butler (won at Marquette Tuesday)
8. (17) Florida (won at Georgia Tuesday)
9. (9) Arizona (beat Stanford Wednesday)
10. (15) Kentucky (beat LSU Tuesday)
11. (5)Oregon (lost at UCLA Thursday)
12. (1) Gonzaga (won at LMU Thursday)
13. (12) Virginia (beat Louisville Monday)
14. (24) Xavier (injured player out for season, beat DePaul Wednesday)
15. (11) Cincinnati (beat UCF Wednesday)
16. (7) Wisconsin (won at Nebraska Thursday)
17. (23) Creighton (injured player out for season)
18. (18) Duke (beat UNC Thursday)
19. (20) St. Mary's (beat Portland Thursday)
20. (16) Purdue (won at Indiana Thursday)
22. (10) UCLA (beat Oregon Thursday)
23. (19) South Carolina (lost to Alabama Tuesday)
24. (21) Maryland (lost at Penn State Tuesday)
32. (13) West Virginia (won at Oklahoma Wednesday)

RPI is the first number. AP ranking in parenthesis. Results of any games played this week so if the game was before Thursday it is reflected in the RPI already. None of the games listed is reflected in the AP ranking.


Teams with a higher RPI but lower ranking: Butler, Florida, Xavier, Creighton, Duke, St Mary's

Teams with a higher AP ranking but lower RPI: UCLA, West Virginia

Also factor in injuries of players lost for the year like Creighton and Xavier have had.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I hope I'm wrong Tex, but it seems like in past years is was very common for the committee chair to mention RPI when he was questioned about certain seeds. They also show it when ESPN is doing the "blind resume" team pick'em. It is just a terrible metric and drives me crazy that it is still used at all.

One quick example from the latest RPI:

#20 - PU
#21 - UCLA
#22 - SMU
#23 - Minnesota

WTF? Anyone that has even watched a little college basketball this year wouldn't have PU and UCLA anywhere close to those other two schools. It's just a horribly inaccurate measurement. End of rant.....

I

While I don't think the win at IU helps Purdue much, that win by UCLA against Oregon after being down by 20 in the second half certainly elevates them.

 

[delish1]

Would any one be surprised to see no B1G teams in this initial listing?

Wisconsin will at least be in it. It might be lower than the ap poll suggests though.

I also think purdue will be a 4. I think the committee will value purdue's road wins and cut a little slack for losses. Right now the boilers have 3 top 25 losses and two top 100 road losses. None of those are unreasonable

I hope I'm wrong Tex, but it seems like in past years is was very common for the committee chair to mention RPI when he was questioned about certain seeds. They also show it when ESPN is doing the "blind resume" team pick'em. It is just a terrible metric and drives me crazy that it is still used at all.

One quick example from the latest RPI:

#20 - PU
#21 - UCLA
#22 - SMU
#23 - Minnesota

WTF? Anyone that has even watched a little college basketball this year wouldn't have PU and UCLA anywhere close to those other two schools. It's just a horribly inaccurate measurement. End of rant.....

The problem is all the computer metrics have weaknesses. Kenpom which seems like the gold standard right now has Florida no. 6 and then 15, 16, 17 are SMU, st Mary's and Wichita st. 15-9 Oklahoma st is 21.

Those all seem way out of whack.

Honestly, none of the computer rankings seem much more accurate than the ap poll or the major site power rankings.

 

[*4purdue*]

Wisconsin will at least be in it. It might be lower than the ap poll suggests though.

I also think purdue will be a 4. I think the committee will value purdue's road wins and cut a little slack for losses. Right now the boilers have 3 top 25 losses and two top 100 road losses. None of those are unreasonable


The problem is all the computer metrics have weaknesses. Kenpom which seems like the gold standard right now has Florida no. 6 and then 15, 16, 17 are SMU, st Mary's and Wichita st. 15-9 Oklahoma st is 21.

Those all seem way out of whack.

Honestly, none of the computer rankings seem much more accurate than the ap poll or the major site power rankings.

I think Purdue's ceiling is a 3 seed. Need to win out the regular season, win the B1G by beating Wiscy again & hope for some help in the other conferences. With the way this season has gone, I'm not sure it's going to matter if your a 3 or 4. I'd like to see Purdue stay out of the 5 for piece of mind if nothing else.

 

[Dryfly88]

Wisconsin will at least be in it. It might be lower than the ap poll suggests though.

I also think purdue will be a 4. I think the committee will value purdue's road wins and cut a little slack for losses. Right now the boilers have 3 top 25 losses and two top 100 road losses. None of those are unreasonable


The problem is all the computer metrics have weaknesses. Kenpom which seems like the gold standard right now has Florida no. 6 and then 15, 16, 17 are SMU, st Mary's and Wichita st. 15-9 Oklahoma st is 21.

Those all seem way out of whack.

Honestly, none of the computer rankings seem much more accurate than the ap poll or the major site power rankings.

BPI and KenPom line up with each other pretty closely including the schools you listed. RPI is much more of an odd ball. Give me a blend (average) of the BPI and KenPom to fill the at large bids and I think you would have a good seeding for the tournament.

 

[BoilerStation]

If we were to win out including BTT I think we can move up to a 2 seed especially if we get another win against Wisconsin. More realistic ceiling is maybe a 3 seed because I can easily see 1 more loss during big ten season and/or in the btt. Worst case scenario I see us as a 6 seed but more likely a 4 or 5. I feel like we never receive favorable seeding so whatever I think we will get I should just automatically drop it a seed or 2 more.

 

[BoilerBiker]

pfff no big ten love at all

 

[krazyjvilled]

Just wow. The gators a 3 seed has to be the biggest joke Ive ever seen. They play in the shit tier SEC and somehow it doesnt matter. Wisconsin not in the top 16 with only 2 losses but gonzaga a 1 seed with 0 losses playing in a trash conference is a joke

 

[Tadal32]

After a strong first round, as of now with us being on the 5 line. We'll get UCLA, Duke, W. Virginia, and Butler, which one do you want?
I'd say Butler.

 

[BoilerBiker]

Just wow. The gators a 3 seed has to be the biggest joke Ive ever seen. They play in the shit tier SEC and somehow it doesnt matter. Wisconsin not in the top 16 with only 2 losses but gonzaga a 1 seed with 0 losses playing in a trash conference is a joke

he says the big ten lacked non conf wins.

florida's best non conf win = miami? lol

 

[krazyjvilled]

Florida pays off the ncaa ever year

 

[depthcharge623]

he says the big ten lacked non conf wins.

florida's best non conf win = miami? lol

If that's the case, then there's literally nothing any of us can do to raise our seed. What a joke.

 

[boilernuke]

he says the big ten lacked non conf wins.

florida's best non conf win = miami? lol

Florida played several ranked teams which inflates their RPI. Problem is that they only beat one of those teams...and it was at home. Really don't understand the love for FL.

 

[Boilermaker]

Florida played several ranked teams which inflates their RPI. Problem is that they only beat one of those teams...and it was at home. Really don't understand the love for FL.

You just nailed it. For as much as people have said the RPI is one minor criteria looked at by the committee, it is still being heavily used. The RPI needs to die, fast and hard.

 

[Boiler Wolf]

We needed to beat Nova or Louisville to be in the conversation apparently. Our RPI isn't terrible (20), much higher than many recent seasons. But if we could cut two or three of the 250+ RPI teams off our schedule and add teams in the top 150, it would help a lot. This season we played 5 teams with current RPIs above 240 (McNeese St 285, NJIT 287, Cleve St 248, Western Illinois 315, Norfolk St. 258). Those games don't help the RPI and with this year's team, we didn't need to play that many cupcakes.

FWIW, the Georgia State team that briefly gave us a scare has an RPI of 105 and is 14-7. Also, Wisconsin with only 3 losses is RPI 18. While I don't like the RPI, I think Purdue could be a little smarter in it's out of conference scheduling, still get as many wins, and end up with a much better RPI by playing fewer soft cupcakes and playing some decent mid majors instead.

 

[BoilerGal74]

If we aren't in the top 16 then I dont know what to say

Okay...my cynicism showing here but can you say "MSU AD serving as Selection Committee Chairman" three times real fast...

 

[BoilerBiker]

We needed to beat Nova or Louisville to be in the conversation apparently. Our RPI isn't terrible (20), much higher than many recent seasons. But if we could cut two or three of the 250+ RPI teams off our schedule and add teams in the top 150, it would help a lot. This season we played 5 teams with current RPIs above 240 (McNeese St 285, NJIT 287, Cleve St 248, Western Illinois 315, Norfolk St. 258). Those games don't help the RPI and with this year's team, we didn't need to play that many cupcakes..

Florida played several ranked teams which inflates their RPI. Problem is that they only beat one of those teams...and it was at home. Really don't understand the love for FL.

scheduling/luck > winning
when looking at florida vs purdue

(going into the year i would have guessed our non conf schedule was about as good as theirs)

 

[New Pal Boiler]

If that's the case, then there's literally nothing any of us can do to raise our seed. What a joke.

3 PAC 12 and 3 Big 12 teams - LOL. I would bet a hundred bones that neither conference gets 3 teams in the sweet 16.

 

[Dryfly88]

You just nailed it. For as much as people have said the RPI is one minor criteria looked at by the committee, it is still being heavily used. The RPI needs to die, fast and hard.

Ding ding ding we have a winner!!

I have been beating this drum a lot lately. The RPI stinks.

Butler

RPI - 8
BPI - 23
KenPom - 23

I couldn't believe they made the top 16 until I checked RPI.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Similar to Indiana, Maryland, Purdue last season.....lack of higher quality wins in non-conference. If Wisconsin or Purdue had Indiana's two......wou

Ding ding ding we have a winner!!

I have been beating this drum a lot lately. The RPI stinks.

Butler

RPI - 8
BPI - 23
KenPom - 23

I couldn't believe they made the top 16 until I checked RPI.

Hope we don't need a silver bullet or wooden stake.

Your skepticism was well-founded; kudos Dry.

 

[BoilerStation]

We will be favored in every remaining game of the big ten season and if we win them all we will be at least a 4 seed come tourney time as long as we don't drop a 1st round game to somebody in the btt or lose to a bottom feeder in the BT. IU and MSU struggling has actually done quite a bit of damage to the BT's overall numbers and perception. There are very few good resume building wins to come by in conference. Some of those teams ahead of us will lose. It would be nice if ND could put it together and finish strong as well.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Just wow. The gators a 3 seed has to be the biggest joke Ive ever seen. They play in the shit tier SEC and somehow it doesnt matter. Wisconsin not in the top 16 with only 2 losses but gonzaga a 1 seed with 0 losses playing in a trash conference is a joke

For some reason they love Gonzaga though they never win anything.

 

[02Boilermaker]

Dryfly, the committee did stray from the RPI rankings when they included #33 WVU in the top 16. Though RPI isn't great at ranking teams 1-351, it is a known formula. That means you can figure out why a team might have an RPI that seems way too high or way too low, and you can adjust the team's ranking accordingly (I agree with you that the committee usually doesn't vary things enough). That brings us to Florida...

RPI uses a multiplier that values road wins > neutral wins > home wins (and vice versa for losses). UF played their cupcake non-conf opponents at "neutral sites" in Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland this season because of home court renovations. Those 7 neutral site wins (2 more than any other team) are a real factor behind UF's lofty RPI. I'm not sure how the committee can justify UF's #11 ranking with the inflated RPI, the 1-4 record vs the top 25, and the 4-5 record vs the top 50.