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To our liberal, progressive friends on here...

I'm a life long Republican that left the party because of Trump. My cardinal rule is that I won't vote for a draft dodger. EVER. How you can claim that Trump isn't a radical?. I'm a conservative(not a fake spend thrift Trump one. Trump spent more money over 4 years than any other president in history). I'll vote for Harris/Walz (like many sane republicans I know) and then hope that the republican party gets back to reality and nominates a decent conservative in 2028. The anointing of Trump as the party representative is sad. No, I'm not afraid of them turning us into a socialist country. I'm more afraid of Trump turning us into a facist country. There will be enough republicans elected(many of whom I will vote for) to hold Harris/Walz in check and of course there is also the SCOTUS.
To vote for Harris/Walz is to vote the demise of the SCOTUS, and to vend more power to the Presidency. Not only will the court system be vastly altered, so will law inforcement, voter rights and laws, as well as the constitution. Anyone who would vote for extreme liberals, is writing the death nell of our Republic.

And as for your theory that there will enough Repubs elected to counter Harris and Walz' extreme socialist views and desires, is speeding up that death because those who would vote for H/W will also vote for other liberals.

You can't be a conservative and vote for such a drastic pair of libs.
 
To address the original question. I have followed national elections since 1964. I recall 1 or 2 National conventions. Where the party’s leading vote getter did not have a majority of electorates committed to him. And after the first vote, the electorates could choose their own candidate thereby negating the public vote. The intelligent and informed voter knows the primary is a vote for an electorate, not the actual candate. The same is true for the general election. If your vote was actually for a candidate, Hillary Clinton would have been President rather than Trump. And Trump’s actions in 2020 were aimed at the electorates, not the public who actually voted! As I grow older, I am both shocked and saddened to see how many people don’t understand how our election for President really works!
 
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I'm a life long Republican that left the party because of Trump. My cardinal rule is that I won't vote for a draft dodger. EVER. How you can claim that Trump isn't a radical?. I'm a conservative(not a fake spend thrift Trump one. Trump spent more money over 4 years than any other president in history). I'll vote for Harris/Walz (like many sane republicans I know) and then hope that the republican party gets back to reality and nominates a decent conservative in 2028. The anointing of Trump as the party representative is sad. No, I'm not afraid of them turning us into a socialist country. I'm more afraid of Trump turning us into a facist country. There will be enough republicans elected(many of whom I will vote for) to hold Harris/Walz in check and of course there is also the SCOTUS.
Not a big Trump fan as I voted for neither candidate the last time. It’s hard to understand now how the Democrats have allowed the country to have open borders, sex trafficking, criminals to walk, inflation, reckless spending on a green new deal, world war on the brink, among other pet projects.

If you truly a life long republican then how can you not see the forest through the trees? It’s not what they say it’s what they’ve done. It’s not going to get better in the future with this kind of leadership.
 
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I'm a life long Republican that left the party because of Trump. My cardinal rule is that I won't vote for a draft dodger. EVER. How you can claim that Trump isn't a radical?. I'm a conservative(not a fake spend thrift Trump one. Trump spent more money over 4 years than any other president in history). I'll vote for Harris/Walz (like many sane republicans I know) and then hope that the republican party gets back to reality and nominates a decent conservative in 2028. The anointing of Trump as the party representative is sad. No, I'm not afraid of them turning us into a socialist country. I'm more afraid of Trump turning us into a facist country. There will be enough republicans elected(many of whom I will vote for) to hold Harris/Walz in check and of course there is also the SCOTUS.
You do realize that Biden is on pace to outspend Trump. I’ll add that Trump left $1T for Biden to spend to combat the pandemic. At least Biden had a vaccine available and who delivered on that?

What has Biden spent $7T on?


Yes, Trump approved more debt, mainly do to a pandemic (if you don’t believe that) go compare the years excluding the pandemic between Trump and Biden. Who spent more? Hint, it’s not Trump.
 
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You do realize that Biden is on pace to outspend Trump. I’ll add that Trump left $1T for Biden to spend to combat the pandemic. At least Biden had a vaccine available and who delivered on that?

What has Biden spent $7T on?


Yes, Trump approved more debt, mainly do to a pandemic (if you don’t believe that) go compare the years excluding the pandemic between Trump and Biden. Who spent more? Hint, it’s not Trump.
Infrastructure and no Biden is not on course to spend more than Trump. We can all play with numbers but Trump was a spendthrift not counting covid. Infrastructure spending to me is much different than the application of other spending. Infrastructure is an investment in the future and will improve our GNP long term. Researchers delivered on the vaccine and if you want to credit Trump then republicans should have at least used it. In my area only 26% of the populace were vaccinated and fought it all the way. If Trump gets credit for the vaccine(which I'm ok with by the way) then he should also take credit for the horrific way in which he handled it. He cost our country billions and threw the entire country into turmoil. He had no plan and wouldn't listen to his experts. It was a classic example of how not to do things in respect to a pandemic. Biden delivered on infrastucture and pulled us out of the pandemic. Having been to Ukraine and Russia in my career, I also agree with Biden's handling of Ukraine. Putin is a murderous thug that wants to reestablish the Soviet Union and put thousands into bondage. We have a unique opportunity to cripple our biggest adversary of the last 75 years for the foreseeable future.
 
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taylor-Swift-AI-Trump-endorsement-.jpg



Crazy America-hating Dementia Donald really poking the bear.

Does Taylor Swift's tour allow her to make an appearance at the Dem Convention? Trump may be too dementia-ridden to understand, but he's trolling her into doing so.

The Dems are gonna get Michelle O there, and here's the prediction: Steph Curry, maybe Beyonce, and now maybe Taylor Swift.

Y'all may think that celebrity endorsements aren't relevant. While they don't affect policy, they affect elections, both for better and for worse. A Taylor Swift/Steph Curry combo beats the hell out of Scott Baio.

.
 
Not a big Trump fan as I voted for neither candidate the last time. It’s hard to understand now how the Democrats have allowed the country to have open borders, sex trafficking, criminals to walk, inflation, reckless spending on a green new deal, world war on the brink, among other pet projects.

If you truly a life long republican then how can you not see the forest through the trees? It’s not what they say it’s what they’ve done. It’s not going to get better in the future with this kind of leadership.
We had a comprehensive immigration deal on the floor put together by Senator Lankford of Oklahoma(conservative republican) that would have fixed most of the current problems with immigration. One that Biden said he would sign. It was a conservatives "wet dream" of a policy and what happened? Trump killed it. So it is easy to not vote for someone that 1. is a draft dodger 2. kills legislation that will help solve the immigration problem 3. puts tariffs in place that are a giant tax on the entire US population and spurs inflation 4. supports a murderous thug named Putin that has been involved in killing our troops all around the world and wants to reinstate the Soviet Union. 5. doesn't support democracy and the peaceful transition of power to the point of offering up his own VP for serious harm. BTW, illegal immigration crossings are now at a 4 year low since Biden's executive order. Seems to me it is YOU that can't see the forest for the trees.
 
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Not a big Trump fan as I voted for neither candidate the last time. It’s hard to understand now how the Democrats have allowed the country to have open borders, sex trafficking, criminals to walk, inflation, reckless spending on a green new deal, world war on the brink, among other pet projects.

If you truly a life long republican then how can you not see the forest through the trees? It’s not what they say it’s what they’ve done. It’s not going to get better in the future with this kind of leadership.
The Dems have allowed sex trafficking?

Okay; I'll bite. This oughta be good -- what is the basis for that statement? (please no citation of Wash DC pizza parlors)
 
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The Dems have allowed sex trafficking?

Okay; I'll bite. This oughta be good -- what is the basis for that statement? (please no citation of Wash DC pizza parlors)
By allowing the border to be open.
 
We had a comprehensive immigration deal on the floor put together by Senator Lankford of Oklahoma(conservative republican) that would have fixed most of the current problems with immigration. One that Biden said he would sign. It was a conservatives "wet dream" of a policy and what happened? Trump killed it. So it is easy to not vote for someone that 1. is a draft dodger 2. kills legislation that will help solve the immigration problem 3. puts tariffs in place that are a giant tax on the entire US population and spurs inflation 4. supports a murderous thug named Putin that has been involved in killing our troops all around the world and wants to reinstate the Soviet Union. 5. doesn't support democracy and the peaceful transition of power to the point of offering up his own VP for serious harm. BTW, illegal immigration crossings are now at a 4 year low since Biden's executive order. Seems to me it is YOU that can't see the forest for the trees.
The Democrats created the immigration problem by canceling policies on the southern border. Not sure how the tariffs created all the inflation you mentioned as under Trump inflation was not a problem. You don’t seem concerned about our citizens being killed by all the fentanyl being brought over from the border. You don’t seem like a conservative based on your posts.
 
The Dems have allowed sex trafficking?

Okay; I'll bite. This oughta be good -- what is the basis for that statement? (please no citation of Wash DC pizza parlors)
You know the answer, JM. Biden has abetted sex trafficking through his open border policy.

Knowing something will happen because of a policy is equivalent to allowing it to happen.

Katstench fumes affecting more than usual, today?
 
Infrastructure and no Biden is not on course to spend more than Trump. We can all play with numbers but Trump was a spendthrift not counting covid. Infrastructure spending to me is much different than the application of other spending. Infrastructure is an investment in the future and will improve our GNP long term. Researchers delivered on the vaccine and if you want to credit Trump then republicans should have at least used it. In my area only 26% of the populace were vaccinated and fought it all the way. If Trump gets credit for the vaccine(which I'm ok with by the way) then he should also take credit for the horrific way in which he handled it. He cost our country billions and threw the entire country into turmoil. He had no plan and wouldn't listen to his experts. It was a classic example of how not to do things in respect to a pandemic. Biden delivered on infrastucture and pulled us out of the pandemic. Having been to Ukraine and Russia in my career, I also agree with Biden's handling of Ukraine. Putin is a murderous thug that wants to reestablish the Soviet Union and put thousands into bondage. We have a unique opportunity to cripple our biggest adversary of the last 75 years for the foreseeable future.
There is a lot to digest here.

So Biden is not on course to “approve” more spending than Trump but he is on course to “spend” more than Trump. Trump approved $8T but didn’t spend $8T, so if you are referring to that number you are discussing budget approvals, not specifically spending.

RE: Give Trump credit for the vaccine then Republicans should’ve used it. Well 81% of Americans got the vaccine. Assuming all 52% Democrats did, then over 60% of the remaining Republicans did as well. CONTRARY to MSNBC reporting. As for “your area” (tough to debate this without definition) but there was no state below 51.1%. I am sorry if you live in some obscure part of the country that didn’t like the vaccine. Maybe you should move to a metro area to be amongst the Democrats.


So how did Trump mishandle COVID? By coming up with a vaccine well in advance of other nations? I’m really going to need you to elaborate. I am thinking that China and the WHO mishandled COVID worse than Trump, but feel free to elaborate with Facts and Data.

As for Russia being our biggest adversary for the last 75 yrs, why should we be more worried about the past (Russia) than about the future (China)? BTW, I support Ukraine, but we should be working to end the war, period.
 
You know the answer, JM. Biden has abetted sex trafficking through his open border policy.

Knowing something will happen because of a policy is equivalent to allowing it to happen.

Katstench fumes affecting more than usual, today?
So when Trump killed the Repub sponsored border bill, was he also abetting sex trafficking?
 
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I'm a life long Republican that left the party because of Trump. My cardinal rule is that I won't vote for a draft dodger. EVER. How you can claim that Trump isn't a radical?. I'm a conservative(not a fake spend thrift Trump one. Trump spent more money over 4 years than any other president in history). I'll vote for Harris/Walz (like many sane republicans I know) and then hope that the republican party gets back to reality and nominates a decent conservative in 2028. The anointing of Trump as the party representative is sad. No, I'm not afraid of them turning us into a socialist country. I'm more afraid of Trump turning us into a facist country. There will be enough republicans elected(many of whom I will vote for) to hold Harris/Walz in check and of course there is also the SCOTUS.
Harris could have have joined but didn't. Many other females joined, so is she a Draft dodger?

I was prepared to go right out of HS and follow my Dad's steps as a paratrooper, but was refused because of a back condition the military thought would be exacerbated by doing so. Am I?
 
Trump didn't kill anything as he couldn't vote on it. The bill was killed because of the added Democrat pork, which they've done for years.
From a Fox New interview. Cavuto interviewing Republican Senator James Lankford, who authored the bill:

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), the GOP co-architect of the Senate’s failed immigration bill earlier this year, made what were perhaps his most critical comments yet on Donald Trump’s role in scuttling the legislation, alluding to Fox News Thursday that the former president was motivated by his political self-interest.

On Your World, Lankford was confronted by anchor Neil Cavuto about the players behind the bill’s demise.

“You are a real gentleman about this, and I know you’re not trying to zing your colleagues, but it’s your colleagues in your party, sir, who torpedoed this, who didn’t get the facts right on what you just outlined was in that measure,” Cavuto said. “They killed it, ironically. Not Democrats.”

During negotiations in February, Lankford lamented the right-wing pushback—led by Trump and his allies—and revealed that a popular conservative media figure even demanded that he not address the immigration topic until after the election, or else be “destroyed.”

The Oklahoma senator agreed with Cavuto. “Right. It was, and it was painful to be able to watch it get stirred up in all the presidential politics,” he said, adding that a number of his Republican colleagues “started looking for ways” to pull out after Trump sought to maintain immigration as a key election issue.

Some, he said, “backed up and looked for a reason to be able to shoot against it, and then walked away.”

“I get that. That’s a decision everybody makes,” Lankford explained. “My issue is if we are pursuing everything, we often end up with nothing. If we are pursuing someone coming later to fix it, later seems to never come. When we have a moment to fix things, we should fix as many things as we can then, then come back later and fix the rest.”

From a CNN interview in early February, Lankford similarly acknowledged the political lay of the land. “Obviously, a chaotic border is helpful to him,” he said then of Trump.

On Thursday, Cavuto reiterated Trump’s driving role in killing the legislation that Lankford helped negotiate, and which included much of what Republicans had asked for.

“That’s on Donald Trump, senator.”

Lankford then contrasted his position as an officeholder with that of Trump, a presidential candidate.

“Again, he’s got an office that he is running for. He’s got a campaign that he is running. I’m already in office. I’ve got a responsibility to be able to carry on this,” he said.

“I think everybody cares about the future of the country. President Trump has a bigger picture of a lot of other issues he is looking for. If we have President Biden again, this never gets any better and I think if Trump sees this as a moment that if this gets fixed, then maybe a few people don’t vote, and then we have a whole host of other issues.”

There you have it: the Conservative Republican Senator who authored the bill stating that Trump killed it because a bi-partisan bill that improved the border situation would have been bad politics for Trump... capiche? Btw, the 'popular conservative media figure' that demanded Lankford not address immigration or be destroyed? Trumpy's bff/phone buddy Hannity.
 
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From a Fox New interview. Cavuto interviewing Republican Senator James Lankford, who authored the bill:

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), the GOP co-architect of the Senate’s failed immigration bill earlier this year, made what were perhaps his most critical comments yet on Donald Trump’s role in scuttling the legislation, alluding to Fox News Thursday that the former president was motivated by his political self-interest.

On Your World, Lankford was confronted by anchor Neil Cavuto about the players behind the bill’s demise.

“You are a real gentleman about this, and I know you’re not trying to zing your colleagues, but it’s your colleagues in your party, sir, who torpedoed this, who didn’t get the facts right on what you just outlined was in that measure,” Cavuto said. “They killed it, ironically. Not Democrats.”

During negotiations in February, Lankford lamented the right-wing pushback—led by Trump and his allies—and revealed that a popular conservative media figure even demanded that he not address the immigration topic until after the election, or else be “destroyed.”

The Oklahoma senator agreed with Cavuto. “Right. It was, and it was painful to be able to watch it get stirred up in all the presidential politics,” he said, adding that a number of his Republican colleagues “started looking for ways” to pull out after Trump sought to maintain immigration as a key election issue.

Some, he said, “backed up and looked for a reason to be able to shoot against it, and then walked away.”

“I get that. That’s a decision everybody makes,” Lankford explained. “My issue is if we are pursuing everything, we often end up with nothing. If we are pursuing someone coming later to fix it, later seems to never come. When we have a moment to fix things, we should fix as many things as we can then, then come back later and fix the rest.”

From a CNN interview in early February, Lankford similarly acknowledged the political lay of the land. “Obviously, a chaotic border is helpful to him,” he said then of Trump.

On Thursday, Cavuto reiterated Trump’s driving role in killing the legislation that Lankford helped negotiate, and which included much of what Republicans had asked for.

“That’s on Donald Trump, senator.”

Lankford then contrasted his position as an officeholder with that of Trump, a presidential candidate.

“Again, he’s got an office that he is running for. He’s got a campaign that he is running. I’m already in office. I’ve got a responsibility to be able to carry on this,” he said.

“I think everybody cares about the future of the country. President Trump has a bigger picture of a lot of other issues he is looking for. If we have President Biden again, this never gets any better and I think if Trump sees this as a moment that if this gets fixed, then maybe a few people don’t vote, and then we have a whole host of other issues.”

There you have it: the Conservative Republican Senator who authored the bill stating that Trump killed it because a bi-partisan bill that improved the border situation would have been bad politics for Trump... capiche?
And what happened as a result?

Without a bill as a cover that still let in 5000/day, Biden ended up issuing executive orders to tighten the border because it was obvious his border policy was very unpopular and highly damaging to the nation. His motivation was entirely political, being the hack that he is.

Biden always had the power to pass executive orders. He also had a majority in the house and senate his first two years. Where was his legislation ?
 
And what happened as a result?

Without a bill as a cover that still let in 5000/day, Biden ended up issuing executive orders to tighten the border because it was obvious his border policy was very unpopular and highly damaging to the nation. His motivation was entirely political, being the hack that he is.

Biden always had the power to pass executive orders. He also had a majority in the house and senate his first two years. Where was his legislation ?
True! Biden saw that the border was a mess and with an election year coming wanted Congressional legislation to fix it, which would have been far more permanent. He was willing to sign a Republican bill to do so.

Instead, Trump killed the Republican border legislation for purely political reasons, and Biden was forced to take (temporary) Executive Action.

When a President does an end run around Congress with Executive Action it sucks, and Biden has been terrible on that front.
 
True! Biden saw that the border was a mess and with an election year coming wanted Congressional legislation to fix it, which would have been far more permanent. He was willing to sign a Republican bill to do so.

Instead, Trump killed the Republican border legislation for purely political reasons, and Biden was forced to take (temporary) Executive Action.

When a President does an end run around Congress with Executive Action it sucks, and Biden has been terrible on that front.
Why do you call it 'Repub border legislation' when repubs voted against it. More of your Orwellian mindset?
 
Why do you call it 'Repub border legislation' when repubs voted against it. More of your Orwellian mindset?
They wrote it.

They supported it.

Their leadership supported it.

Then? Hannity started calling on behalf of Trump "Tony Soprano style."

During negotiations in February, Sen Lankford (R) (co-architect of the legislation) lamented the right-wing pushback—led by Trump and his allies—and revealed that a popular conservative media figure even demanded that he not address the immigration topic until after the election, or else be “destroyed.”
 
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They wrote it.

They supported it.

Their leadership supported it.

Then? Hannity started calling on behalf of Trump "Tony Soprano style."

During negotiations in February, Sen Lankford (R) (co-architect of the legislation) lamented the right-wing pushback—led by Trump and his allies—and revealed that a popular conservative media figure even demanded that he not address the immigration topic until after the election, or else be “destroyed.”
Only repubs wrote it? No dems? Dem leadership did not support it, only repubs?
 
I’ve posted repeatedly it was bipartisan and that Lankford was the co-author.
You said this just a few posts above. I wanted you to correct it, but you tried to squirm out of it instead.

"Instead, Trump killed the Republican border legislation for purely political reasons, and Biden was forced to take (temporary) Executive Action."

What you wrote, btw, points out that Biden could take Executive Actions despite saying several times he could not.

I really can't understand why you or anybody else support such a lying hack and his incompetent vp.
 
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I don't want to go through all these, it'd take forever and we're not going to convince each other. But the fact that you call climate change a "hypothesis" is hysterical.
Climate change is factual, man made climate change is hypothetical.
Oh wait it can't be a coincidence that about 17,000 years ago when man mastered fire, the glaciers melted.
 
We had a comprehensive immigration deal on the floor put together by Senator Lankford of Oklahoma(conservative republican) that would have fixed most of the current problems with immigration. One that Biden said he would sign. It was a conservatives "wet dream" of a policy and what happened? Trump killed it. So it is easy to not vote for someone that 1. is a draft dodger 2. kills legislation that will help solve the immigration problem 3. puts tariffs in place that are a giant tax on the entire US population and spurs inflation 4. supports a murderous thug named Putin that has been involved in killing our troops all around the world and wants to reinstate the Soviet Union. 5. doesn't support democracy and the peaceful transition of power to the point of offering up his own VP for serious harm. BTW, illegal immigration crossings are now at a 4 year low since Biden's executive order. Seems to me it is YOU that can't see the forest for the trees.
that would have fixed most of the current problems with immigration
It wouldn't have fixed jack. It would only make Biden's open borders legal.

puts tariffs in place that are a giant tax on the entire US population and spurs inflation
What was the inflation rate under Trump and his tariffs?

supports a murderous thug named Putin that has been involved in killing our troops all around the world and wants to reinstate the Soviet Union.
How much money has Trump received from Russian oligarchs.
How about the Clinton Foundation and Hunter.
And killing American troops and death to America, who has lifted all sanctions on Iran, who gave air plane loads of money to the leading sponsor of terror in the world.

BTW, illegal immigration crossings are now at a 4 year low
Yea right. Quit watching CNN, MSNBC and the MSM and look at the US statistical facts.
 
I'm a life long Republican that left the party because of Trump. My cardinal rule is that I won't vote for a draft dodger. EVER. How you can claim that Trump isn't a radical?. I'm a conservative(not a fake spend thrift Trump one. Trump spent more money over 4 years than any other president in history). I'll vote for Harris/Walz (like many sane republicans I know) and then hope that the republican party gets back to reality and nominates a decent conservative in 2028. The anointing of Trump as the party representative is sad. No, I'm not afraid of them turning us into a socialist country. I'm more afraid of Trump turning us into a facist country. There will be enough republicans elected(many of whom I will vote for) to hold Harris/Walz in check and of course there is also the SCOTUS.
This is a bit confusing...can you elaborate a bit? You don't like Trump, but hope there will be enough "Republicans" to counter the destruction of Harris/Waltz and that "many you will vote for". Do these "many" you reference have positions opposed to Trump in that they don't care about the border, and don't care about inflation? That seems to be the two biggest policies of Trump and I'm unaware that other Republicans running want an open border and think inflation is fine. If they agree with Trump, and you agree with them, enough to vote for them, do you hate Trump more than you love the country or somehow believe they will address those things the other side has created and probably is not highly concerned to address? If they don't agree with Trump on the two biggest items I stated (and we know there are more), who are these many republicans that you could or would vote that will hold Harris/Waltz in check and be "able" to address what things you think they will address to prevent the Harris/Waltz destruction? There is a disconnect that I cannot piece together
 
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Climate change is factual, man made climate change is hypothetical.
Oh wait it can't be a coincidence that about 17,000 years ago when man mastered fire, the glaciers melted.
When "change" is used, it references something. How old is the earth that we know was hot and cold before.? Is anything we see today different within the variation of the earth temperatures in the past say a few thousands years ago...or a million years ago or some point in-between? How old is the earth and if temperature is a sine wave (referencing cyclic temperatures in teh past)...how many years lie in PI/2...and what quadrant of the sine wave (if true) would we be in? If I throw two die and roll numbers 5,6,7 and 8 (which would be a bit over 50%, and then roll any of a 2,3,49,11 or 12...did the two die change? There is sooooooooooooo much we don't know to suggest something as factual...which may be...but we don't know it.

Conceptually and something easy to understand for some with a little understanding of the Central Limit Theorem application that does in fact tie easily into this is the following. One of the most basic attempts to detect change over time that "everyday" people may encounter is the Xbar and R chart (essentially an ANOVA comparing within variation and between variation). Since I picked a variable chart for ease I'll use weight in Indiana. I pick out 5 districts in the state and pull five samples out of each district (every six months) say of 25 to 35 year old people for 5 average data points with each average having a range in the weight. I now have a grand average of 5 averages and grand average of 5 ranges for the initial starting point. I then apply control limits as an attempt to know when the average doesn't change and when it does based upon a 99% that the average value stays inside the control limit (3 std dev of averages which is the square root of the sample size smaller than the population not calculating trend data as that makes this harder to understand for some) and when an average is outside the control limit an "assignable cause" has taken place. What happens if the next sample contains all men if not the same people or a woman is now 6 months pregnant, or required medicine has change things...there are countless examples that could be used to say something changed. However, if you included "all the sources of variation" in the initial calculations, then all data would be similar to the population used to calculate the 3 sigma of averages and would show no out of control or change.

Consequently, not having sufficient data representing all the variables possible that generate a data point...will detect a change when a different source (but inside the population of data points not studied) is introduced. That is the nature of the beast. This and many other reasons are why some think statistics lie, when we just may not know what is really being said. What happens if the weight scales get out of calibration in sample data...a diet...stress. If that data is properly represented in the entire population that variation will increase a range which increases the opportunity to show no change...because that variable was used in the calculations earlier. Soooo, depending on the total timeline and other assumptions that are not believed to be a factor, but are, change will be the result ONLY because that source of variation was NOT included as a baseline.
 
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This is a bit confusing...can you elaborate a bit? You don't like Trump, but hope there will be enough "Republicans" to counter the destruction of Harris/Waltz and that "many you will vote for". Do these "many" you reference have positions opposed to Trump in that they don't care about the border, and don't care about inflation? That seems to be the two biggest policies of Trump and I'm unaware that other Republicans running want an open border and think inflation is fine. If they agree with Trump, and you agree with them, enough to vote for them, do you hate Trump more than you love the country or somehow believe they will address those things the other side has created and probably is not highly concerned to address? If they don't agree with Trump on the two biggest items I stated (and we know there are more), who are these many republicans that you could or would vote that will hold Harris/Waltz in check and be "able" to address what things you think they will address to prevent the Harris/Waltz destruction? There is a disconnect that I cannot piece together
As a registered Republican, I'll try that one:

I care about the border and about inflation, but far, far over and above that for a Chief Executive?
I care about leadership.

For me the overriding issue that disqualifies Donald Trump are his abhorrent personal characteristics. I'm not talking 'some things' I don't like about him; it is normal to not appreciate 'some things'.

I'm talking about a complete narcissist, a horrible role model who lives and breathes grievance and insult, has a complete disregard for the rule of law, and a decision maker that is overwhelmingly concerned with self-interest over national interest; he acts in national interest only when it intersects with his self-interest. He is also 78 years old and getting worse, not better. I have great reverence for seniors, but for most our personal 'quirks' are magnified as we reach a certain age.

For me? Pretty much any other Republican that was running would have likely gotten my vote. There is no way in hell I will support that awful, awful man.
 
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As a registered Republican, I'll try that one:

I care about the border and about inflation, but far, far over and above that for a Chief Executive?
I care about leadership.

For me the overriding issue that disqualifies Donald Trump are his abhorrent personal characteristics. I'm not talking 'some things I don't like about him'; it is normal to not appreciate 'some things'. I'm talking about a complete narcissist, a horrible role model who lives and breathes grievance and insult, has a complete disregard for the rule of law, and a decision maker that is overwhelmingly concerned with self-interest over national interest; he acts in national interest only when it intersects with his self-interest. He is also 78 years old and getting worse, not better. I have great reverence for seniors, but for most our personal 'quirks' are magnified as we reach a certain age.

For me? Pretty much any other Republican that was running would have likely gotten my vote. There is no way in hell I will support that awful, awful man.
appreciate your honesty, but I care way too much about the border and have for a few years ,and inflation to know the problems that will exist. I share Franklin Grahams thoughts in that Trump has his flaws (particularly from those that turned against him when he ran for office), but says the time is right for Trump and America needs him. I don't profess to have the character, integrity and moral courage that Franklin has, but I share his opinion. I also am very concerned with what I have witnessed relative to the 1st and 2nd and other things and although I think "personal" presentation AND actual presentation of policies have always been in play , I think the gap is too large in policy differences to let personal presentation come into play. That said your reasons are a lot better than voting for one's sex or race as though they bring an element of magic with them when there is no cultural or academic data that would suggest such....
 
appreciate your honesty, but I care way too much about the border and have for a few years ,and inflation to know the problems that will exist. I share Franklin Grahams thoughts in that Trump has his flaws (particularly from those that turned against him when he ran for office), but says the time is right for Trump and America needs him. I don't profess to have the character, integrity and moral courage that Franklin has, but I share his opinion. I also am very concerned with what I have witnessed relative to the 1st and 2nd and other things and although I think "personal" presentation AND actual presentation of policies have always been in play , I think the gap is too large in policy differences to let personal presentation come into play. That said your reasons are a lot better than voting for one's sex or race as though they bring an element of magic with them when there is no cultural or academic data that would suggest such....
Fundamentally (though I understand that there is overlap) I want Congress to assume the primary role in setting the legislative agenda, and the President to be the Chief Executive and bully-pulpit leader for the nation.

Harris is far, far from my preferred candidate policy-wise, but she's smart and by all accounts a generally good person. And therefore she easily qualifies as part of the universe of nearly anyone that would be a better Chief Executive than Donald Trump. And that is the role that is in contention.
 
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Fundamentally (though I understand that there is overlap) I want Congress to assume the primary role in setting the legislative agenda, and the President to be the Chief Executive and bully-pulpit leader for the nation.

Harris is far, far from my preferred candidate policy-wise, but she's smart and by all accounts a generally good person. And therefore she easily qualifies as part of the universe of nearly anyone that would be a better Chief Executive than Donald Trump. And that is the role that is in contention.
you are aware that the party she leads doesn't like the three branches. They have shown a distaste for the SCOTUS...particularly those that are not activist and want to follow the law. They leaked about the intention to return abortion to the states trying to pressure the SCOTUS to change (leaker still not found...like Epstein's killer). They have threatened to pack the courts like Eisenhour wanted previously. They now want the SCOTUS to have term limits. These all indicate that the legislative branch is not enough for them to have the control they want...because they know what is best for all when in fact there are many people smarter than them not in public office. They rarely if ever think their policies are bad, but instead believe they just had the wrong person leading the cause. This has went on for centuries with progressives as noted well by Thomas Sowell in "A Conflict Of Visions" and we see that taking place today...again. We can blame the 17th amendment for shifting the power to a few local areas than most the country

The policies are horrible and Kamala has shared in those, but with a new leader and the same approach...people now believe this person will make those bad policies work.
 
you are aware that the party she leads doesn't like the three branches. They have shown a distaste for the SCOTUS...particularly those that are not activist and want to follow the law. They leaked about the intention to return abortion to the states trying to pressure the SCOTUS to change (leaker still not found...like Epstein's killer). They have threatened to pack the courts like Eisenhour wanted previously. They now want the SCOTUS to have term limits. These all indicate that the legislative branch is not enough for them to have the control they want...because they know what is best for all when in fact there are many people smarter than them not in public office. They rarely if ever think their policies are bad, but instead believe they just had the wrong person leading the cause. This has went on for centuries with progressives as noted well by Thomas Sowell in "A Conflict Of Visions" and we see that taking place today...again. We can blame the 17th amendment for shifting the power to a few local areas than most the country

The policies are horrible and Kamala has shared in those, but with a new leader and the same approach...people now believe this person will make those bad policies work.
I have already said that there are policies that she is in favor of that I am not a fan of. That certainly includes re-structuring the Supreme Court. For me? I also hate the student loan forgiveness nonsense.

Of course, there are Repub-backed policies that I'm not a fan of either; no votes on appointees during an election year, lack of funding for our allies, tax cuts that are far more advantageous to wealthy individuals (vs corporate tax cuts, which I kinda like).

All in all? It's a mixed bag that for me leans Republican from a policy perspective.

And none of that will ever come close to the undeniable necessity to send the 78 year old con-man, rule of law hating, insult spewing, conspiracy-theory enabling, white-supremacist winking idiot that is Donald Trump to the ashbin of history.
 
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Climate change is factual, man made climate change is hypothetical.
It's not hypothetical. A hypothetical is when someone says "I wonder what would happen if..." Anthroprogenic climate change is widely supported by the scientific community. They could be wrong, but you saying it's "hypothetical" doesn't suffice as an adequate rebuttal. The only thing that ever proves science wrong is better science.
Oh wait it can't be a coincidence that about 17,000 years ago when man mastered fire, the glaciers melted.
What? Are you equating the amount of CO2 released by prehistoric camp fires to the amount released since the start of the industrial revolution? This gives real "the climate has always changed" vibes, which is like the most shallow understanding of the whole topic I ever hear.
 
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When "change" is used, it references something. How old is the earth that we know was hot and cold before.? Is anything we see today different within the variation of the earth temperatures in the past say a few thousands years ago...or a million years ago or some point in-between? How old is the earth and if temperature is a sine wave (referencing cyclic temperatures in teh past)...how many years lie in PI/2...and what quadrant of the sine wave (if true) would we be in? If I throw two die and roll numbers 5,6,7 and 8 (which would be a bit over 50%, and then roll any of a 2,3,49,11 or 12...did the two die change? There is sooooooooooooo much we don't know to suggest something as factual...which may be...but we don't know it.

Conceptually and something easy to understand for some with a little understanding of the Central Limit Theorem application that does in fact tie easily into this is the following. One of the most basic attempts to detect change over time that "everyday" people may encounter is the Xbar and R chart (essentially an ANOVA comparing within variation and between variation). Since I picked a variable chart for ease I'll use weight in Indiana. I pick out 5 districts in the state and pull five samples out of each district (every six months) say of 25 to 35 year old people for 5 average data points with each average having a range in the weight. I now have a grand average of 5 averages and grand average of 5 ranges for the initial starting point. I then apply control limits as an attempt to know when the average doesn't change and when it does based upon a 99% that the average value stays inside the control limit (3 std dev of averages which is the square root of the sample size smaller than the population not calculating trend data as that makes this harder to understand for some) and when an average is outside the control limit an "assignable cause" has taken place. What happens if the next sample contains all men if not the same people or a woman is now 6 months pregnant, or required medicine has change things...there are countless examples that could be used to say something changed. However, if you included "all the sources of variation" in the initial calculations, then all data would be similar to the population used to calculate the 3 sigma of averages and would show no out of control or change.

Consequently, not having sufficient data representing all the variables possible that generate a data point...will detect a change when a different source (but inside the population of data points not studied) is introduced. That is the nature of the beast. This and many other reasons are why some think statistics lie, when we just may not know what is really being said. What happens if the weight scales get out of calibration in sample data...a diet...stress. If that data is properly represented in the entire population that variation will increase a range which increases the opportunity to show no change...because that variable was used in the calculations earlier. Soooo, depending on the total timeline and other assumptions that are not believed to be a factor, but are, change will be the result ONLY because that source of variation was NOT included as a baseline.
Quite simply if your window of time is quite short in comparison to the population you want to understand, it can be very likely that "change" shows up due to not including other sources of variation that would have been encountered with a larger time window, but it would not really be change inside the population had the whole population been studied.
 
It's not hypothetical. A hypothetical is when someone says "I wonder what would happen if..." Anthroprogenic climate change is widely supported by the scientific community. They could be wrong, but you saying it's "hypothetical" doesn't suffice as an adequate rebuttal. The only thing that ever proves science wrong is better science.

What? Are you equating the amount of CO2 released by prehistoric camp fires to the amount released since the start of the industrial revolution? This gives real "the climate has always changed" vibes, which is like the most shallow understanding of the whole topic I ever hear.
Yep, I'm stating the fact the the climate has always changed.
The glaciers melted prior to the industrial revolution.
Do you want to debate that?
So my question is, where is the proof climate change is man made?
30 years ago a new ice age was coming.
10 years ago man was causing global warming.
Today man is causing climate change.
It's caused by man but the scientists can't agree what man is causing. Get it.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't be stewards of our environment.
 
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