Thursday Iowa - Purdue Prediction Thread
- Thread starter T.H.U.G. Life Boiler
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Spread is 17.5. That feels like a lot of points, and Purdue should cover. But without Moore it will be interesting. I liked the changes in the Maryland game, now time to find out if it was because of the changes or Maryland being terrible. This could be a value bet with Purdue +17.5 or a trap. I’m guessing Purdue covers with an off chance at winning.
Quick throws (not sure why we didn't do that against PSU and minny), no turnovers, and no dumb penalties are the key.
Iowa runs the ball well but they also have a couple of deep threats in the passing game. It should be a low scoring game and Purdue has to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Until there are major improvements with the OL, the offense will continue to struggle against stout defenses. The Purdue defense will hold up ok for 2 1/2 quarters before getting worn down.
If you look at Iowa's scoring, they have major problems against P5 teams. Against P5 teams, they have scored 12 (PSU), 3 (Michigan), 18 (Iowa St) and 30 (Rutgers - do they really count?). Their points are against teams from lesser conferences: 38 (Miami OH) and 48 (Mid Tenn). IU put up more against Rutgers.
While the Purdue Defense is not great, it is not terrible. I can see a low scoring game so the spread seems too large to me. Of course, turnovers can cause a blowout. While an underdog on the road, I think that the probability of an upset is not that low.
While the Purdue Defense is not great, it is not terrible. I can see a low scoring game so the spread seems too large to me. Of course, turnovers can cause a blowout. While an underdog on the road, I think that the probability of an upset is not that low.
Iowa has better run/pass offense than Purdue at this point. Their defense is respectable as well.
Purdue 10
Iowa 24
Win the turnover margin and we could close the gap quite a bit. Iowa will not forget the last two years that Purdue has played them and will not take us lightly. They are in must win territory as well to stop their 2 game losing streak.
Purdue 10
Iowa 24
Win the turnover margin and we could close the gap quite a bit. Iowa will not forget the last two years that Purdue has played them and will not take us lightly. They are in must win territory as well to stop their 2 game losing streak.
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Yeah, I don't think Iowa will score very many points. I just don't think we'll score enough.
Purdue is on the upswing. Iowa is not. While the odds favor Iowa, I do not see them as likely a winner as most here.
I really don't know where we are. UNLV trounced Vanderbilt at Vanderbilt,and with their poor record, what does our win really say about us? And although the Maryland win was more than nice, which Maryland team showed up to play that weekend? This week will show if we are truly an improved team, or whether we can only win against poor opponents. Hopefully, the former.
I was surprised the spread was as big as it is since Iowa struggles so much to get the ball across the goal line. But that being said, when a spread isn't what you think it should be, it's usually right. So it's begging you to take the points, but the smart bettor would say Iowa 30-10 for the cover.
I was about to say something about needing to run the ball to win, but I'm not really sure that's it. Iowa is the one that will try to ball control by pounding it on the ground. So I don't care if we take 30 seconds or 6 minutes to score. We just have to score and force Iowa to do something out of their comfort zone. Brohm needs to scheme to set up mismatches for Hopkins like he did last week. I didn't really notice because I had to watch the game on replay, but were Bell and Hopkins lined up on the same side a lot? I can see defenses struggle with coverage if the safety has to choose which one to double.
I'll have to look, but how is Iowa compared to Penn State with sacks? I know Epenesa is good, but how good compared to the onslaught we faced in HV?
I was about to say something about needing to run the ball to win, but I'm not really sure that's it. Iowa is the one that will try to ball control by pounding it on the ground. So I don't care if we take 30 seconds or 6 minutes to score. We just have to score and force Iowa to do something out of their comfort zone. Brohm needs to scheme to set up mismatches for Hopkins like he did last week. I didn't really notice because I had to watch the game on replay, but were Bell and Hopkins lined up on the same side a lot? I can see defenses struggle with coverage if the safety has to choose which one to double.
I'll have to look, but how is Iowa compared to Penn State with sacks? I know Epenesa is good, but how good compared to the onslaught we faced in HV?
I agree with both of these observations. Iowa has struggled to score points, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll struggle against Purdue. I think it will be respectable, but I just don't think Purdue will score enough to win. I can definitely see Purdue covering a 17.5 point spread. I wonder if Iowa having lost two straight against Purdue will impact the game.
27-17 seems about right to me.
I agree that two straight losses should motivate Iowa. But those two losses seem to have eliminated them from the B1G title game; I do not see Wisconsin with two losses. Most likely one (OSU on the road) but if Iowa were to beat them then Iowa would have the tie-breaker based upon head to head. That also discounts Minnesota who is presently 2 games u on them as well but I see that balloon bursting in short order.
As I write, I see that probabilities of a Purdue win at less than 50%, but it is not that much less.
In my lifetime, it wasn't until 1981, until Iowa defeated Purdue. My first college football came in West Lafayette, back in 1971, as Iowa played Purdue. On Saturday, it's Homecoming and my daughter is joining me for the game in Kinnick Stadium.
Same year, Iowa hired a young O-Line coach named Kirk Ferentz.
His first win over Purdue, as an O-Line coach was ....
Date Opponent (record) Result Score Site
11/3/2018 @ *Purdue (6-7) L 36 38
11/18/2017 vs. *Purdue (7-6) L 15 24
10/15/2016 @ *Purdue (3-9) W 49 35
11/21/2015 vs. *Purdue (2-10) W 40 20
9/27/2014 @ *Purdue (3-9) W 24 10
11/9/2013 @ *Purdue (1-11) W 38 14
11/10/2012 vs. *Purdue (6-7) L 24 27
11/19/2011 @ *Purdue (7-6) W 31 21
11/15/2008 vs. *Purdue (4-8) W 22 17
10/20/2007 @ *Purdue (8-5) L 6 31
10/7/2006 vs. *Purdue (8-6) W 47 17
10/8/2005 @ *Purdue (5-6) W 34 17
11/6/2004 vs. *Purdue (7-5) W 23 21
11/8/2003 @ *Purdue (9-4) L 14 27
10/5/2002 vs. *Purdue (7-6) W 31 28
10/6/2001 @ *Purdue (6-6) L 14 23
10/31/1998 @ *Purdue (9-4) L 14 36
11/1/1997 vs. *Purdue (9-3) W 35 17
10/29/1994 @ *Purdue (4-5-2) T 21 21
10/30/1993 vs. *Purdue (1-10) W 26 17
10/24/1992 vs. *Purdue (4-7) L 16 27
10/26/1991 @ *Purdue (4-7) W 31 21
11/17/1990 vs. *Purdue (2-9) W 38 9
11/18/1989 @ *Purdue (3-8) W 24 0
10/22/1988 @ *Purdue (4-7) W 31 7
10/24/1987 vs. *Purdue (3-7-1) W 38 14
11/15/1986 vs. *Purdue (3-8) W 42 14
11/16/1985 @ *Purdue (5-6) W 27 24
10/13/1984 @ *Purdue (7-5) W 40 3
10/15/1983 vs. *Purdue (3-7-1) W 31 14
11/6/1982 @ *Purdue (3-8) L 7 16
11/7/1981 vs. *Purdue (5-6) W 33 7
If you are at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, it will be Black & Gold day, with the Boilers in town!
peace
Same year, Iowa hired a young O-Line coach named Kirk Ferentz.
- Iowa 31
- Purdue 18
His first win over Purdue, as an O-Line coach was ....
- Iowa 33
- Purdue 7
Date Opponent (record) Result Score Site
11/3/2018 @ *Purdue (6-7) L 36 38
11/18/2017 vs. *Purdue (7-6) L 15 24
10/15/2016 @ *Purdue (3-9) W 49 35
11/21/2015 vs. *Purdue (2-10) W 40 20
9/27/2014 @ *Purdue (3-9) W 24 10
11/9/2013 @ *Purdue (1-11) W 38 14
11/10/2012 vs. *Purdue (6-7) L 24 27
11/19/2011 @ *Purdue (7-6) W 31 21
11/15/2008 vs. *Purdue (4-8) W 22 17
10/20/2007 @ *Purdue (8-5) L 6 31
10/7/2006 vs. *Purdue (8-6) W 47 17
10/8/2005 @ *Purdue (5-6) W 34 17
11/6/2004 vs. *Purdue (7-5) W 23 21
11/8/2003 @ *Purdue (9-4) L 14 27
10/5/2002 vs. *Purdue (7-6) W 31 28
10/6/2001 @ *Purdue (6-6) L 14 23
10/31/1998 @ *Purdue (9-4) L 14 36
11/1/1997 vs. *Purdue (9-3) W 35 17
10/29/1994 @ *Purdue (4-5-2) T 21 21
10/30/1993 vs. *Purdue (1-10) W 26 17
10/24/1992 vs. *Purdue (4-7) L 16 27
10/26/1991 @ *Purdue (4-7) W 31 21
11/17/1990 vs. *Purdue (2-9) W 38 9
11/18/1989 @ *Purdue (3-8) W 24 0
10/22/1988 @ *Purdue (4-7) W 31 7
10/24/1987 vs. *Purdue (3-7-1) W 38 14
11/15/1986 vs. *Purdue (3-8) W 42 14
11/16/1985 @ *Purdue (5-6) W 27 24
10/13/1984 @ *Purdue (7-5) W 40 3
10/15/1983 vs. *Purdue (3-7-1) W 31 14
11/6/1982 @ *Purdue (3-8) L 7 16
11/7/1981 vs. *Purdue (5-6) W 33 7
If you are at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, it will be Black & Gold day, with the Boilers in town!
peace
Give me 8 -10 players that are out with injury that would have started for the Boilers, & make 'em healthy...…..
And this is a pick'em game.....
And this is a pick'em game.....
I just won our young players to play smart and play hard. I want to win of course but if we lose and they show signs of improvement as youngsters I’ll take it. There are no “moral victories”, but it was kind of hilarious to hear the announcers yesterday said that Stanford should be proud of how they are playing as one of the most injury riddled teams in the country LMAO! I think the announcer said they have four players out, really
Purdue owns Iowa. Brohm will never lose to Ferentz just like Archie will never beat Painter. 28-13 Good Guys. Everyone is being too nice, this is a rivalry game. Remember we hate Iowa.
I like your enthusiasm. If our team was healthy, we might have been able to pull it off.
Games are not played on paper. A turnover recovery and a couple of big plays and we might stun them. All that said, I’m not getting my hopes up.
Actually the game will likely be decided in the second half when Purdue's lack of depth starts showing.
Lol. Like “The Super Fans” from Saturday night live. I say if Coach Ditka suits up its Boilers 120 Hawkeyes 0. At the half.
But in reality I think Purdue does have a shot but Plummer has to be given some time in the pocket. I think we can win but I feel it’s going to be Purdue 17
Iowa. 28
Better than I expected! Give the fumble that refs and replay screwed up and we possibly could have won. No moral victories, yet I saw our team compete to the end to try and win. For that I’m happy.
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