Saw some interesting things in the charts Tom put out, and although I’m not gonna give those away, I’ve seen some interesting side discussions. And, I have some time to kill, so I’m gonna give my take. And then @pboiler18, @nat100 and @New Pal Boiler and others can roast me.
mind you, this doesn’t take into account any inside info like secret injuries, guys who have some character/legal/some other inside stuff going on. This is just what we see from the outside.
the good news? I estimated that we had 7 or so guys last year who had established themselves as Big ten caliber starters.. or, guys that half the league or more would be happy to have as a starter. Though that team was top heavy with Karlaftis and Bell, this team had many more players who have proven that much.
I’ll bold players who are ready to mix it up now as Big Ten quality starters in my mind. I Itallicize those who may show that they can contribute (and whom I expect to get a chance even without injury).
so let’s dive in:
QB
Oconnell
Health at this position is the season. Where I differ from some is that Burton just can’t throw. He is not going to be a starter and have it be a tenable situation. My opinion is that if Oconnell was nicked up, the Burton thing might not make it a game, and then you’d be looking at Alaimo next trying to run a scaled back offense. We’d be lucky to eek out a 6-6 bowl season in that scenario and could even see Allen if things got bad enough late. If Oconnell stays healthy, this team could win 8+ games with this years schedule. We have no playable depth here.
RB
Doerue
James
Downing
Mockobee
In my opinion we are gonna be fine with King Doerue, at least similar to what we would see if we had DJ Knox. I’m looking for Doerue to expand his game to inside the tackle runs, but a lot of that depends on the offensive line. I also expect Doerue to expand his pass blocking and receiving.
WR
Wright
Rice
WR
Sheffield
Tracy
Burks
WR
Thompson
Yaseen
Terrell
This is who I believe we will see. And nat can correct me if Terrell belongs on the other side in this system. Obviously, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the top guys weren’t full go on opening night with the injuries and that, but I think we have enough to make it through with enough of them out there.
Wright if eligible could really be a star. He’s got athleticism that surpasses any wide receiver I can remember on the outside and he looked as though he was getting really comfortable late last season. Thompson could really produce a la Bell at that spot. Bell is obviously better, but Thompson didn’t look far off vs Tennessee. I expect Tracy to make plays all over and be a real good wild card. Then I look for Burks, Sheffield and Terrell to get in the mix and produce as well. Rice and Yaseen are wild cards with the injuries. If healthy, both could bolster this group. After that I look to Sullivan and Canion to get involved and wouldn’t be surprised to see Steptoe to get in the mix.
TE
Durham
Miller
Piferi
Biber
I expect Garrett Miller to take a huge step forward this year. Durham is the senior and will get the opportunities, but I think Miller will become a real headache for opposing defenses. I expect to see the others thrown into the mix here and there when opportunities arise.
LT
Miller
LG
Holstege
C
Hartwig
RG
Mbow
Craig
RT
Moussa
Craig
This is where I think we are gonna be to start the season. How healthy they are and how much better they’ve gotten will tell the story.
If Craig is healthy and looks better, Mbow holds his own at guard, we could be on to something. If not and we have to start Moussa outside with either Craig starting inside or Mbow inside, that’s not as good but could still be ok. Those six I think will play if healthy. If they show up on game one looking pretty good, this offense could be hard for anyone to stop. But that’s a real question mark.
Kaltenberger and Finau if healthy would be the next ones in in my mind, but I’m not expecting much from either.
this is my experience chart of guys I’m gonna expect to see on day one.
DE
Sullivan
Anderson
Sydnor
DT
Deen
Boyd
Hudgins
NT
Johnson
Lewis
Leo
Jenkins
Humpich
Karlaftis
The story of this defense is gonna get told at that DE spot to a great degree. I’m looking to Joe Anderson with his tools to show that he can take a bigger role, because he has the physical tools to be something if he can be something. Sullivan to me has the toughness and is nice as a four best starter.. someone you can put opposite of George karlaftis who will eventually get home. Much like )a very rich man’s) Geo Reviere, he’s low on burst at the position.
The other way this DL will tell the story is by producing one guy who can set a tone. They will play the run fine. Will Purdue have one guy who can be explosive enough to make this a line that Can pressure without blitzing. They were that last year for the first time since 2017.
Johnson, Deen and Jenkins weren’t independently very good at generating pressure. They were good because Karlaftis was being triple teamed. All are fine players but someone needs to be the catalyst. And In this very good group I’m not gonna be surprised at all if Y. Karlaftis comes out at 245+ and can be a real threat.
But overall it should be a good group
WLB
Washington
MLB
Douglas
Fakasiieki
Wahlberg
The 5
Graham
This is what I expect us to start with. I think we will have the three guys in the middle rotating (heavier Douglas and Semisi) and will not pull Graham and Washington much against passing teams. I don’t think we will see Douglas and Semisi together except against Wisconsin.
CB
Trice
Hampton
S
Allen
Jefferson
S
Grant
Stevens
CB
Brown
Denson
Taylor
A really good dangerous group that I think is what some people think this DL will be. If there’s a weakest starter it might be Brown, but not by much to me. I look for him to be able to cover without using his hands so much and I look for Marvin Grant to improve his angles. I think this is the group, along with Oconnell at QB and the TEs, who have a chance to really define this team. I expect to see all backups play, including Taylor in the slot.
I look at this team as having a 6-6 floor and no ceiling with this schedule. If they beat Penn state to open the season, which I don’t think I’ll predict, I don’t know that there’s a game that I just flat out see them losing after that.. on the high end. That means things like Oconnell is healthy, as is the team. Someone becomes the pressure guy on the DL and the OL is at least above average at blocking both the run and pass.
I think all of that happening is a stretch so the most likely pick I’ll make is 8-4, followed by 7-5.
they’ll lose penn state, Wisconsin, Minnesota and 1-2 other surprises.
thanks for letting me kill an hour on a day I needed to kill time
mind you, this doesn’t take into account any inside info like secret injuries, guys who have some character/legal/some other inside stuff going on. This is just what we see from the outside.
the good news? I estimated that we had 7 or so guys last year who had established themselves as Big ten caliber starters.. or, guys that half the league or more would be happy to have as a starter. Though that team was top heavy with Karlaftis and Bell, this team had many more players who have proven that much.
I’ll bold players who are ready to mix it up now as Big Ten quality starters in my mind. I Itallicize those who may show that they can contribute (and whom I expect to get a chance even without injury).
so let’s dive in:
QB
Oconnell
Health at this position is the season. Where I differ from some is that Burton just can’t throw. He is not going to be a starter and have it be a tenable situation. My opinion is that if Oconnell was nicked up, the Burton thing might not make it a game, and then you’d be looking at Alaimo next trying to run a scaled back offense. We’d be lucky to eek out a 6-6 bowl season in that scenario and could even see Allen if things got bad enough late. If Oconnell stays healthy, this team could win 8+ games with this years schedule. We have no playable depth here.
RB
Doerue
James
Downing
Mockobee
In my opinion we are gonna be fine with King Doerue, at least similar to what we would see if we had DJ Knox. I’m looking for Doerue to expand his game to inside the tackle runs, but a lot of that depends on the offensive line. I also expect Doerue to expand his pass blocking and receiving.
WR
Wright
Rice
WR
Sheffield
Tracy
Burks
WR
Thompson
Yaseen
Terrell
This is who I believe we will see. And nat can correct me if Terrell belongs on the other side in this system. Obviously, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the top guys weren’t full go on opening night with the injuries and that, but I think we have enough to make it through with enough of them out there.
Wright if eligible could really be a star. He’s got athleticism that surpasses any wide receiver I can remember on the outside and he looked as though he was getting really comfortable late last season. Thompson could really produce a la Bell at that spot. Bell is obviously better, but Thompson didn’t look far off vs Tennessee. I expect Tracy to make plays all over and be a real good wild card. Then I look for Burks, Sheffield and Terrell to get in the mix and produce as well. Rice and Yaseen are wild cards with the injuries. If healthy, both could bolster this group. After that I look to Sullivan and Canion to get involved and wouldn’t be surprised to see Steptoe to get in the mix.
TE
Durham
Miller
Piferi
Biber
I expect Garrett Miller to take a huge step forward this year. Durham is the senior and will get the opportunities, but I think Miller will become a real headache for opposing defenses. I expect to see the others thrown into the mix here and there when opportunities arise.
LT
Miller
LG
Holstege
C
Hartwig
RG
Mbow
Craig
RT
Moussa
Craig
This is where I think we are gonna be to start the season. How healthy they are and how much better they’ve gotten will tell the story.
If Craig is healthy and looks better, Mbow holds his own at guard, we could be on to something. If not and we have to start Moussa outside with either Craig starting inside or Mbow inside, that’s not as good but could still be ok. Those six I think will play if healthy. If they show up on game one looking pretty good, this offense could be hard for anyone to stop. But that’s a real question mark.
Kaltenberger and Finau if healthy would be the next ones in in my mind, but I’m not expecting much from either.
this is my experience chart of guys I’m gonna expect to see on day one.
DE
Sullivan
Anderson
Sydnor
DT
Deen
Boyd
Hudgins
NT
Johnson
Lewis
Leo
Jenkins
Humpich
Karlaftis
The story of this defense is gonna get told at that DE spot to a great degree. I’m looking to Joe Anderson with his tools to show that he can take a bigger role, because he has the physical tools to be something if he can be something. Sullivan to me has the toughness and is nice as a four best starter.. someone you can put opposite of George karlaftis who will eventually get home. Much like )a very rich man’s) Geo Reviere, he’s low on burst at the position.
The other way this DL will tell the story is by producing one guy who can set a tone. They will play the run fine. Will Purdue have one guy who can be explosive enough to make this a line that Can pressure without blitzing. They were that last year for the first time since 2017.
Johnson, Deen and Jenkins weren’t independently very good at generating pressure. They were good because Karlaftis was being triple teamed. All are fine players but someone needs to be the catalyst. And In this very good group I’m not gonna be surprised at all if Y. Karlaftis comes out at 245+ and can be a real threat.
But overall it should be a good group
WLB
Washington
MLB
Douglas
Fakasiieki
Wahlberg
The 5
Graham
This is what I expect us to start with. I think we will have the three guys in the middle rotating (heavier Douglas and Semisi) and will not pull Graham and Washington much against passing teams. I don’t think we will see Douglas and Semisi together except against Wisconsin.
CB
Trice
Hampton
S
Allen
Jefferson
S
Grant
Stevens
CB
Brown
Denson
Taylor
A really good dangerous group that I think is what some people think this DL will be. If there’s a weakest starter it might be Brown, but not by much to me. I look for him to be able to cover without using his hands so much and I look for Marvin Grant to improve his angles. I think this is the group, along with Oconnell at QB and the TEs, who have a chance to really define this team. I expect to see all backups play, including Taylor in the slot.
I look at this team as having a 6-6 floor and no ceiling with this schedule. If they beat Penn state to open the season, which I don’t think I’ll predict, I don’t know that there’s a game that I just flat out see them losing after that.. on the high end. That means things like Oconnell is healthy, as is the team. Someone becomes the pressure guy on the DL and the OL is at least above average at blocking both the run and pass.
I think all of that happening is a stretch so the most likely pick I’ll make is 8-4, followed by 7-5.
they’ll lose penn state, Wisconsin, Minnesota and 1-2 other surprises.
thanks for letting me kill an hour on a day I needed to kill time
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