This week, the Boilermakers again find themselves in an “enviable” position facing a team ranked in the Top 5, and going for the hat trick season when they face Ohio State.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Ohio State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. Purdue has released a 2-deep (first time in quite a while) so I have used those projected starters.
- Purdue will face, once again, a larger O-Line as Ohio State comes in averaging 322.0 lbs. While large, they aren’t as experienced as a number of the teams Purdue’s recently faced (Illinois, Minnesota, MSU) with an average of 2.6 years of experience. Their size puts them well above average for the B10, their experience puts them well below average for the B10. Collectively, they will have just 85 starts among them. They essentially feature 2 multi-year starters this year with the most experienced (Munford) who, with 40, having nearly half of the line’s collective starts. BTW, their left tackle is named Petit-Frere. Petit means “small” in French. Petit-Frere is 6’5” and 315lbs but compared to right tackle Dawand Jones at 6’8”, 360lbs, perhaps he does seem “small”.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Ohio State line by about 39.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 65 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers and PSU. They have a collective 49 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 113. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Ohio State features a four man front scheme along the D-Line. For a traditional front, they still have one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 286.75 lbs, which is right at the average in the B10. They also have decent experience as they come in with a 3.50 year average with is above average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 19.25 lbs per man. None of the starters were full time starters prior to this season so starts between them is very low, especially for this time of the year at 34.
- Ohio State’s uses a defensive back {“Bullet”) as one of their LBs but they still come in at a decent 225.7 lbs . They are below average sized for the B10. They are also young with 2.67 years at the position all of the starters are essentially new this season so collective starts are a very light 24.
VegasInsider predicts Ohio State by 20.0 points (Opened up at -19.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 35-21 Ohio State win
Sagarin predicts a 17.57 point Ohio State win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 15.75 point Ohio State win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue..........................Ohio State
QB O’Connell NR..........Stroud 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Henderson 4*
WR Wright 4*.................Olave 3*
WR Bell 4*............……..Wilson 4*
WR Anthrop 3*.............. Smith-Njigba 5*
TE Durham 3*.................Ruckert 4*
LT Long 2*......................Petit-Frere 5*
LG Witt 2*...................... Munford 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Wypler 4*
RG Holstege 2*...............Johnson 5*
RT Miller 3*......................D. Jones 3*
DE Jenkins 3*...................Harrison 5*
DT Johnson 3*……….......Hamilton 3*
DT Dean 3*........................Garrett 4*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............T. Smith 4*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Simon 4*
LB Douglas 2* …….…........Mitchell 5*
LB/N Graham 3*...…….…..Hickman 4*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..….........Banks 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Shaw 3*
FS Allen 3*......……....…......Burke 4*
SS Grant 4*..........................Wiliamson 4*
Forget about “sneaking up” on them; they all know about what Purdue has done this season.
Forget about “trap game”; there’s still a handful of players who appeared in the 2-deep in their 2018 visit to Ross-Ade
Forget about “looking ahead”; sure, MSU is on the slate the following week but some of the luster is off that game as Purdue exposed them for what they are.
No, while this game may not have been circled on the OSU team calendar, this week’s game will be clearly in focus for the Buckeyes.
This year’s OSU team features the usual cast of high-end recruits and players whose names populate many of the mock drafts which are being circulated. In that regard, not much has changed since the Boilers and Buckeyes last met.
What has changed is new head coach, Ryan Day. Well, he’s not exactly new, he’s been there for several years now, but as a HC, he and Purdue have yet to meet. Day and his Buckeyes have also yet to lose a B10 game as he’s now 21-0 in the B10. In fact, the Buckeyes haven’t lost a B10 contest since October, 2018, a string of 24 games. (I seem to remember that game. Vbg)
With last year’s QB now playing at Soldier Field, Day had a number of highly ranked candidates from which to choose to lead the Buckeyes. The winner of that lottery was R-Frosh, C.J. Stroud who now leads the league in Passing Yards per game in route to the Buckeyes having the top ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the B10 and ranked 2nd nationally in both categories.
Stroud throws to arguably the most touted WR corps in Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba. Of the three, Olave may be the most talented but due to the attention he receives from opposing defenses, Wilson (85.9 ypg) and Smith-Njigba (97.2 ypg) have more yards (69.2 ypg). The same holds true when just looking at receptions with Smith-Nigba (5.4), Wilson (5.4) outpacing Olave (4.7). Pick your poison. One note about Wilson, he did not play against Nebraska last week for an undisclosed reason so he could be questionably again this week.
No Wilson, no problem. Without Wilson, Smith-Njigba went for over 200 yards and caught a school record 15 passes in a single game which beat David Boston’s record from 1997. That record setting 15 reception game, had he been at Purdue, would not have registered on Purdue’s top 5 performances. Smith-Njigba’s 200+ yard day is also the first time a Buckeye has hit that mark since 2004 (Santonio Holmes). Of course Purdue’s own David Bell has bested the 200 yard mark twice this season. Just sayin’.
When OSU does run the ball, they use a true freshman in TreVeyon Henderson who averages 7.32 yards per carry, tops in the B10.
If there was any question, this is the most high powered offense in the league and just a shade away from being the top ranked group in the country. Purdue’s defense will have their work cut out for them.
Defensively, OSU has not been as proficient. Total Defense is a more pedestrian #47 nationally (7th in the B10) however their Rush Defense is ranked #15th (4th in the league). It when teams decide to throw the ball when things start to get a little dicey for the Buckeyes. Pass Efficiency Defense isn’t horrible (#35th nationally 7th in the league) but the raw Passing Yards Allowed isn’t anything to write home about (#94th nationally, 11th in the B10). Scoring Defense, which is really the key stat, is much better at 19th nationally, 7th in the B10, giving up an even 19 points per game.
To try and address some of their shortcomings, OSU has swapped defensive play callers (essentially changing Defensive Coordinators) and shifted a number of personnel into starting roles. It hasn’t uniformly helped. Oregon ran through and around the OSU defense for 269 yards, prompting some of those changes, and that aspect of their defense seems to have been solved, giving up just 73 yards per game on the ground since, and no team rushing for more than 113 yards (Nebraska).
But, in the Yin/Yang that is defense, turning down the screws on the run game seems to have opened up the pass game. Over that same period, teams have passed for an average of 255 yards per game through the air. When you consider that several of those teams either aren’t passing offenses to start with (Akron) or had issues with QB injuries (IU), the yards allowed should be a bit of a concern to the OSU faithful.
Comparing this group against the MSU defense: OSU is much better but, right now, can still be susceptible to passing teams. And, as luck would have it, there might be one of those headed to Columbus this weekend.
One area where Purdue might gain an advantage is in penalties. Like MSU last week, OSU is fairly heavily penalized ranking 88th in Penalties Per Game (6.89) and 101st in Penalty Yards Per Game (64.33) or about a half a penalty and about 5 yards fewer than MSU.
Purdue continues to shine in that category ranking 2nd nationally in Penalties Per Game (3.89) and 7th in Penalty Yards Per Game (36.11). While Purdue got two major (Unsportsman) penalties against MSU, they really didn’t hurt the Boilers with Miller’s coming on the final drive of the 1st half and Mackey’s coming after the 4th Quarter interception and counting for less than 15 yards as it was half the distance to the goal. Purdue did have a slim chance at a FG prior to Miller’s penalty but even absent the penalty, it would have been a long shot to score.
Purdue, once again, added to the long list of Top 5 teams that can’t have nice things after they play Purdue.
For you history buffs, below are the scores here is the updated games where Purdue, as an unbeaten, took down a Top 5 team.
1947 - #5 Illinois 14-7
1950 - #1 ND 28-14
1953 - #2 OSU 6-0
1957 - #1 OSU 20-13
1958 - #5 OSU 14-6
1960 - #3 OSU 24-21
1960 - #1 Minnesota 23-14
1961 - #5 Iowa 9-0
1964 - #5 Michigan 21-20
1970 - #3 Stanford 26-14
1974 - #2 ND 31-20
1976 - #1 Michigan 16-14
1984 - #2 OSU 28-23
1998 - #4 Kansas St 37-34
2018 - #2 OSU 49-20
2021 - #2 Iowa 24-7
2021 - #3 MSU 40-29
Purdue has now beaten multiple Top 5 teams in the same year for the first time since 1960. It has the opportunity this week to make it three times in a single season which would be a record. During the stretch of 1957-60, Purdue did that feat 4 times. For this year’s team to match that streak over the same period (2018-21), it needs to win on Saturday.
Purdue’s inclusion for the first time in the College Football Playoff rankings at #19 could put an asterisk to a Boilermaker win this weekend, but since the above wins all used the AP poll, which chose not to rank Purdue in their Top 25 this week, Purdue could still claim unranked status.
Much was made by the MSU’s coach last week about how many times Purdue had knocked MSU off when they had played as a high ranking team. One thing that sticks out in the above list is the number of times Purdue has knocked off this week’s opponent (6 times, or slightly more than 1/3 of the time).
Of special note: This Saturday, for the first time since the 2007 season, Purdue will kick off a regular season game having already qualified for a post season bowl game. Let that sink in for a minute Fifteen Years! It’s been a long time coming. .
With last Saturday’s 40 point outburst on the scoreboard and over 500 yards in the passing game, Purdue’s now up to 60th in Total Offense (6th in B10), 90th in Scoring Offense (9th in B10), 128th in Rush Offense (14th in the B10) and 47th in Pass Efficiency (5th in the B10). They are 8th nationally in Passing Yards (2nd in the conference) but interceptions are why they are lower in the Pass Efficiency rankings. Red Zone offense was perfect last Saturday and now stands at 80th nationally, 6th in the B10 getting points on 81.6% of their possessions.
Still an improvement from recent weeks and considering injuries to a number of the skill players this season, a testament to the depth that Purdue has on its roster, where there isn’t a considerable drop off should a player miss a game (David Bell is an exception).
It’s not earth shattering news by now, but the biggest reason for this season’s turnaround has been the improved defense.
Total Defense ranking is now #27 nationally and 5th in the League; Scoring Defense is 16th nationally and 6th in the league; Rush Defense is 61st and 10th in the B10, and; Pass Efficiency Defense is 12th nationally and 5th in the league. Red Zone defense is an exceptional 14th nationally, and #2 in the league allowing teams to score just 72.4% of the time.
With the benefit of the +2 in turnovers on Saturday, Purdue now stands at “even” for the season in turnover margin.
Ohio State shouldn’t be looking past Purdue this week. Even with games against Michigan State and that “school up north”, Purdue’s two high-profile upsets this year should get their attention.
Still, their games against MSU and UM will in all likelihood, determine who wins the B10 East and Ohio State still has their eyes set on another CFB Playoff berth. With the youth on OSU’s team, there could be a loss of focus but I wouldn’t necessarily count on it.
Speaking of youth, this OSU team is playing a lot of younger players than past squads. For the year, Freshmen have counted for 40 starts including their game with Akron, when four true-freshmen started, including the QB and RB, the first time that had happened in OSU history.
Perhaps due to the up and down nature of younger players, OSU, doesn’t seem to be hitting on all of their cylinders right now. After ripping off a four game stretch in late September/early October where they scored 50+, they followed up with scoring 33 and now 26 last week against Nebraska.(You’ll recall that one week prior, Purdue scored 28 against the Huskers). OSU couldn’t get their running game going and had it not been for Nebraska issues on special teams (2 missed FGs and a 13 yard punt), OSU wouldn’t have had an unblemished record.
Every Purdue opponent should try and play Purdue like Wisconsin was able to do. Unfortunately, they don’t all have Wisconsin’s personnel or coaches. Again, OSU has a lot of talent, but so far, their defense doesn’t approach Wisconsin’s as a unit.
Let’s see a show of hands of everyone who expected Purdue to be in 1st place (albeit tied) the second week in November?
As unlikely as it seems, Purdue still has a decent chance to win the B10 West and end up in Indy for the championship game. To have any realistic chance, a win this Saturday is a must.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 40’s at kickoff. There is a 12% chance of rain. Winds should be light to moderate at 10-15 mph. A near perfect day for agame upset.
EDIT: Updated odds and computer prediction. O-line comparison.
How 'bout them Boilers!
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Ohio State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. Purdue has released a 2-deep (first time in quite a while) so I have used those projected starters.
- Purdue will face, once again, a larger O-Line as Ohio State comes in averaging 322.0 lbs. While large, they aren’t as experienced as a number of the teams Purdue’s recently faced (Illinois, Minnesota, MSU) with an average of 2.6 years of experience. Their size puts them well above average for the B10, their experience puts them well below average for the B10. Collectively, they will have just 85 starts among them. They essentially feature 2 multi-year starters this year with the most experienced (Munford) who, with 40, having nearly half of the line’s collective starts. BTW, their left tackle is named Petit-Frere. Petit means “small” in French. Petit-Frere is 6’5” and 315lbs but compared to right tackle Dawand Jones at 6’8”, 360lbs, perhaps he does seem “small”.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Ohio State line by about 39.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 65 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers and PSU. They have a collective 49 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 113. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Ohio State features a four man front scheme along the D-Line. For a traditional front, they still have one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 286.75 lbs, which is right at the average in the B10. They also have decent experience as they come in with a 3.50 year average with is above average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 19.25 lbs per man. None of the starters were full time starters prior to this season so starts between them is very low, especially for this time of the year at 34.
- Ohio State’s uses a defensive back {“Bullet”) as one of their LBs but they still come in at a decent 225.7 lbs . They are below average sized for the B10. They are also young with 2.67 years at the position all of the starters are essentially new this season so collective starts are a very light 24.
VegasInsider predicts Ohio State by 20.0 points (Opened up at -19.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 35-21 Ohio State win
Sagarin predicts a 17.57 point Ohio State win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 15.75 point Ohio State win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue..........................Ohio State
QB O’Connell NR..........Stroud 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Henderson 4*
WR Wright 4*.................Olave 3*
WR Bell 4*............……..Wilson 4*
WR Anthrop 3*.............. Smith-Njigba 5*
TE Durham 3*.................Ruckert 4*
LT Long 2*......................Petit-Frere 5*
LG Witt 2*...................... Munford 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Wypler 4*
RG Holstege 2*...............Johnson 5*
RT Miller 3*......................D. Jones 3*
DE Jenkins 3*...................Harrison 5*
DT Johnson 3*……….......Hamilton 3*
DT Dean 3*........................Garrett 4*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............T. Smith 4*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Simon 4*
LB Douglas 2* …….…........Mitchell 5*
LB/N Graham 3*...…….…..Hickman 4*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..….........Banks 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Shaw 3*
FS Allen 3*......……....…......Burke 4*
SS Grant 4*..........................Wiliamson 4*
Forget about “sneaking up” on them; they all know about what Purdue has done this season.
Forget about “trap game”; there’s still a handful of players who appeared in the 2-deep in their 2018 visit to Ross-Ade
Forget about “looking ahead”; sure, MSU is on the slate the following week but some of the luster is off that game as Purdue exposed them for what they are.
No, while this game may not have been circled on the OSU team calendar, this week’s game will be clearly in focus for the Buckeyes.
This year’s OSU team features the usual cast of high-end recruits and players whose names populate many of the mock drafts which are being circulated. In that regard, not much has changed since the Boilers and Buckeyes last met.
What has changed is new head coach, Ryan Day. Well, he’s not exactly new, he’s been there for several years now, but as a HC, he and Purdue have yet to meet. Day and his Buckeyes have also yet to lose a B10 game as he’s now 21-0 in the B10. In fact, the Buckeyes haven’t lost a B10 contest since October, 2018, a string of 24 games. (I seem to remember that game. Vbg)
With last year’s QB now playing at Soldier Field, Day had a number of highly ranked candidates from which to choose to lead the Buckeyes. The winner of that lottery was R-Frosh, C.J. Stroud who now leads the league in Passing Yards per game in route to the Buckeyes having the top ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the B10 and ranked 2nd nationally in both categories.
Stroud throws to arguably the most touted WR corps in Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba. Of the three, Olave may be the most talented but due to the attention he receives from opposing defenses, Wilson (85.9 ypg) and Smith-Njigba (97.2 ypg) have more yards (69.2 ypg). The same holds true when just looking at receptions with Smith-Nigba (5.4), Wilson (5.4) outpacing Olave (4.7). Pick your poison. One note about Wilson, he did not play against Nebraska last week for an undisclosed reason so he could be questionably again this week.
No Wilson, no problem. Without Wilson, Smith-Njigba went for over 200 yards and caught a school record 15 passes in a single game which beat David Boston’s record from 1997. That record setting 15 reception game, had he been at Purdue, would not have registered on Purdue’s top 5 performances. Smith-Njigba’s 200+ yard day is also the first time a Buckeye has hit that mark since 2004 (Santonio Holmes). Of course Purdue’s own David Bell has bested the 200 yard mark twice this season. Just sayin’.
When OSU does run the ball, they use a true freshman in TreVeyon Henderson who averages 7.32 yards per carry, tops in the B10.
If there was any question, this is the most high powered offense in the league and just a shade away from being the top ranked group in the country. Purdue’s defense will have their work cut out for them.
Defensively, OSU has not been as proficient. Total Defense is a more pedestrian #47 nationally (7th in the B10) however their Rush Defense is ranked #15th (4th in the league). It when teams decide to throw the ball when things start to get a little dicey for the Buckeyes. Pass Efficiency Defense isn’t horrible (#35th nationally 7th in the league) but the raw Passing Yards Allowed isn’t anything to write home about (#94th nationally, 11th in the B10). Scoring Defense, which is really the key stat, is much better at 19th nationally, 7th in the B10, giving up an even 19 points per game.
To try and address some of their shortcomings, OSU has swapped defensive play callers (essentially changing Defensive Coordinators) and shifted a number of personnel into starting roles. It hasn’t uniformly helped. Oregon ran through and around the OSU defense for 269 yards, prompting some of those changes, and that aspect of their defense seems to have been solved, giving up just 73 yards per game on the ground since, and no team rushing for more than 113 yards (Nebraska).
But, in the Yin/Yang that is defense, turning down the screws on the run game seems to have opened up the pass game. Over that same period, teams have passed for an average of 255 yards per game through the air. When you consider that several of those teams either aren’t passing offenses to start with (Akron) or had issues with QB injuries (IU), the yards allowed should be a bit of a concern to the OSU faithful.
Comparing this group against the MSU defense: OSU is much better but, right now, can still be susceptible to passing teams. And, as luck would have it, there might be one of those headed to Columbus this weekend.
One area where Purdue might gain an advantage is in penalties. Like MSU last week, OSU is fairly heavily penalized ranking 88th in Penalties Per Game (6.89) and 101st in Penalty Yards Per Game (64.33) or about a half a penalty and about 5 yards fewer than MSU.
Purdue continues to shine in that category ranking 2nd nationally in Penalties Per Game (3.89) and 7th in Penalty Yards Per Game (36.11). While Purdue got two major (Unsportsman) penalties against MSU, they really didn’t hurt the Boilers with Miller’s coming on the final drive of the 1st half and Mackey’s coming after the 4th Quarter interception and counting for less than 15 yards as it was half the distance to the goal. Purdue did have a slim chance at a FG prior to Miller’s penalty but even absent the penalty, it would have been a long shot to score.
Purdue, once again, added to the long list of Top 5 teams that can’t have nice things after they play Purdue.
For you history buffs, below are the scores here is the updated games where Purdue, as an unbeaten, took down a Top 5 team.
1947 - #5 Illinois 14-7
1950 - #1 ND 28-14
1953 - #2 OSU 6-0
1957 - #1 OSU 20-13
1958 - #5 OSU 14-6
1960 - #3 OSU 24-21
1960 - #1 Minnesota 23-14
1961 - #5 Iowa 9-0
1964 - #5 Michigan 21-20
1970 - #3 Stanford 26-14
1974 - #2 ND 31-20
1976 - #1 Michigan 16-14
1984 - #2 OSU 28-23
1998 - #4 Kansas St 37-34
2018 - #2 OSU 49-20
2021 - #2 Iowa 24-7
2021 - #3 MSU 40-29
Purdue has now beaten multiple Top 5 teams in the same year for the first time since 1960. It has the opportunity this week to make it three times in a single season which would be a record. During the stretch of 1957-60, Purdue did that feat 4 times. For this year’s team to match that streak over the same period (2018-21), it needs to win on Saturday.
Purdue’s inclusion for the first time in the College Football Playoff rankings at #19 could put an asterisk to a Boilermaker win this weekend, but since the above wins all used the AP poll, which chose not to rank Purdue in their Top 25 this week, Purdue could still claim unranked status.
Much was made by the MSU’s coach last week about how many times Purdue had knocked MSU off when they had played as a high ranking team. One thing that sticks out in the above list is the number of times Purdue has knocked off this week’s opponent (6 times, or slightly more than 1/3 of the time).
Of special note: This Saturday, for the first time since the 2007 season, Purdue will kick off a regular season game having already qualified for a post season bowl game. Let that sink in for a minute Fifteen Years! It’s been a long time coming. .
With last Saturday’s 40 point outburst on the scoreboard and over 500 yards in the passing game, Purdue’s now up to 60th in Total Offense (6th in B10), 90th in Scoring Offense (9th in B10), 128th in Rush Offense (14th in the B10) and 47th in Pass Efficiency (5th in the B10). They are 8th nationally in Passing Yards (2nd in the conference) but interceptions are why they are lower in the Pass Efficiency rankings. Red Zone offense was perfect last Saturday and now stands at 80th nationally, 6th in the B10 getting points on 81.6% of their possessions.
Still an improvement from recent weeks and considering injuries to a number of the skill players this season, a testament to the depth that Purdue has on its roster, where there isn’t a considerable drop off should a player miss a game (David Bell is an exception).
It’s not earth shattering news by now, but the biggest reason for this season’s turnaround has been the improved defense.
Total Defense ranking is now #27 nationally and 5th in the League; Scoring Defense is 16th nationally and 6th in the league; Rush Defense is 61st and 10th in the B10, and; Pass Efficiency Defense is 12th nationally and 5th in the league. Red Zone defense is an exceptional 14th nationally, and #2 in the league allowing teams to score just 72.4% of the time.
With the benefit of the +2 in turnovers on Saturday, Purdue now stands at “even” for the season in turnover margin.
Ohio State shouldn’t be looking past Purdue this week. Even with games against Michigan State and that “school up north”, Purdue’s two high-profile upsets this year should get their attention.
Still, their games against MSU and UM will in all likelihood, determine who wins the B10 East and Ohio State still has their eyes set on another CFB Playoff berth. With the youth on OSU’s team, there could be a loss of focus but I wouldn’t necessarily count on it.
Speaking of youth, this OSU team is playing a lot of younger players than past squads. For the year, Freshmen have counted for 40 starts including their game with Akron, when four true-freshmen started, including the QB and RB, the first time that had happened in OSU history.
Perhaps due to the up and down nature of younger players, OSU, doesn’t seem to be hitting on all of their cylinders right now. After ripping off a four game stretch in late September/early October where they scored 50+, they followed up with scoring 33 and now 26 last week against Nebraska.(You’ll recall that one week prior, Purdue scored 28 against the Huskers). OSU couldn’t get their running game going and had it not been for Nebraska issues on special teams (2 missed FGs and a 13 yard punt), OSU wouldn’t have had an unblemished record.
Every Purdue opponent should try and play Purdue like Wisconsin was able to do. Unfortunately, they don’t all have Wisconsin’s personnel or coaches. Again, OSU has a lot of talent, but so far, their defense doesn’t approach Wisconsin’s as a unit.
Let’s see a show of hands of everyone who expected Purdue to be in 1st place (albeit tied) the second week in November?
As unlikely as it seems, Purdue still has a decent chance to win the B10 West and end up in Indy for the championship game. To have any realistic chance, a win this Saturday is a must.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 40’s at kickoff. There is a 12% chance of rain. Winds should be light to moderate at 10-15 mph. A near perfect day for a
EDIT: Updated odds and computer prediction. O-line comparison.
How 'bout them Boilers!
Let’s play football!
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