Swanigan's Minutes

[hamcoboiler]

Thought this was an interesting stat. Through the 24 games Swanigan has played, he averages 26.125 MPG. Below is a Per 40 Minutes breakdown for games he plays above the average and below:

Above
Games: 11
MPG: 29.0
OREB: 2.5
DREB: 10.2
POINTS: 14.0
FG%: 39.8%
Opponents Avg. KenPom: 126

Below
Games: 13
MPG: 23.7
OREB: 3.0
DREB: 11.2
POINTS: 15.8
FG%: 45.9%
Opponents Avg. KenPom: 102

PER40 Stats in Bold. One more note, since turnovers have been the biggest issue all season. His assists to turnover ratio is nearly identical on both sides of the split.

It's hard to keep a talent like him off the floor, but at the same time he has been more effective with limited minutes against better competition. I think there is benefit for Edwards as well, because when Swanigan is off the floor he plays the four and I think he has been more effective there. This is not an anti-Swanigan post, I think he needs to be on the floor, but I also think at times Painter is asking a bit much of a freshman big man.

 

[delish1]

Just take away his green light to shoot 3s. In the post he is fairly effective and adds an element to the offense.

 

[hamcoboiler]

Just take away his green light to shoot 3s. In the post he is fairly effective and adds an element to the offense.

Ironically his 3 point numbers are identical on both sides of the split.

 

[boiler62]

Just take away his green light to shoot 3s. In the post he is fairly effective and adds an element to the offense.

CS needs to be one and done from three pt. land, he gets one a game and if he misses he is done from 3 land! He is below 20% from 3 pt land for the Big Ten season! Plus he is our best rebounder and it's tough to rebound from behind the three point arch.

 

[delish1]

While I appreciate your analysis I'm not sure how statistically significant it is given the small sample size.

The stat I notice is Swanigan is 4-23 (17.4%) from three in Big Ten play. With my eyes I see that his shot is not soft from out there and I'd much rather have other players shooting that even though most of the time he is wide open when he takes them. It did look like Painter has been telling him to shoot those less though as he passed a couple up last night.

This is not a bash Swanigan opinion though. I think he is developing some moves on the block that are an asset to the team. I'd much rather he focus down there and work on his 3 point shot in the offseason. If he spent the rest of the season working in the post on his moves and passing I think he can help this team make a run.

 

[boiler62]

While I appreciate your analysis I'm not sure how statistically significant it is given the small sample size.

The stat I notice is Swanigan is 4-23 (17.4%) from three in Big Ten play. With my eyes I see that his shot is not soft from out there and I'd much rather have other players shooting that even though most of the time he is wide open when he takes them. It did look like Painter has been telling him to shoot those less though as he passed a couple up last night.

This is not a bash Swanigan opinion though. I think he is developing some moves on the block that are an asset to the team. I'd much rather he focus down there and work on his 3 point shot in the offseason. If he spent the rest of the season working in the post on his moves and passing I think he can help this team make a run.

There is a good reason he's open for the 3, it's by design! CS has many strengths, the 3pt shot is not one of them.

 

[hamcoboiler]

Plus he is our best rebounder and it's tough to rebound from behind the three point arch.

He actually isn't Purdue's best rebounder. Hammons grabs 13.7 per 40 compared to Swanigans 13.4.

 

[hamcoboiler]

This thread really wasn't about his specific strengths and weaknesses, just that he has been more efficient with less minutes.

 

[delish1]

There is a good reason he's open for the 3, it's by design! CS has many strengths, the 3pt shot is not one of them.

You are right. The opposition probably wants him taking that shot. I do think it can be a weapon for him long term, he just needs more development.

His touch with both hands near the basket is his strength right now though.

 

[*4purdue*]

To many people forget the kid reclassified. He should be playing his senior year of HS right now. How he has played this year is unbelievable. Big Dog had a turnover problem his first year & he was a soph. (didn't qualify as a freshman). I think CS is going to be incredible next year & his junior year if he's still here, which I think he will be. I'm ok with him shooting the 3 & having a green light. The kid has a nice stroke & is going to hit some big ones for us once he gains his confidence.

 

[TC4THREE]

To many people forget the kid reclassified. He should be playing his senior year of HS right now. How he has played this year is unbelievable. Big Dog had a turnover problem his first year & he was a soph. (didn't qualify as a freshman). I think CS is going to be incredible next year & his junior year if he's still here, which I think he will be. I'm ok with him shooting the 3 & having a green light. The kid has a nice stroke & is going to hit some big ones for us once he gains his confidence.

I don't think people are forgetting that, but that doesn't change anything. He's here now. That can be the excuse/reason for some of his issues (shot selection, defense, turnovers) but they are still issues right now and the extent to which those are addressed will likely determine how long we will play into March. When we lose in the NCAA tournament we don't get to pull out a Swanigan-should-still-be-in-high-school card and magically advance because of it. When we lose, we will be done. And if it is because Swanigan played poor defense, or turned it over 6 times, or went 0-5 from 3, then that will be too bad because those are all things that we knew and had time to address.

 

[BoilerDeac]

To many people forget the kid reclassified. He should be playing his senior year of HS right now. How he has played this year is unbelievable. Big Dog had a turnover problem his first year & he was a soph. (didn't qualify as a freshman). I think CS is going to be incredible next year & his junior year if he's still here, which I think he will be. I'm ok with him shooting the 3 & having a green light. The kid has a nice stroke & is going to hit some big ones for us once he gains his confidence.

Exactly, and this is part of the reason why he shouldn't be playing 30+ minutes per game.

Caleb is still very young, and prone to mistakes. He can be an absolute force under the basket, but he should not be playing 30+ minutes. That is far too many.

 

[toddbrewster]

I love Caleb at the 4. I also love to see Edwards at the 4. However, most of all I would love to see Hammons more at the 4.

I realize I keep beating a dead horse, but let's look at the facts.

On D, AJ has shown the foot speed to cover the jump shot. If Haas is covering a non shooter and the player beats AJ, then Haas is there and AJ goes to the rim. If another player goes to the rim and Haas goes to cover, we have been burnt with the pass to the big man for the dunk. Imagine just once, Haas goes to cover and the big man gets the pass to go dunk and AJ comes charging in from the weak side to swat it away. You do this D for 3 minutes a half and it changes the pace of the game. By the time the O adapts, we are back to normal.

On O, you have AJ at the high post. AJ can hit the outside shot and he has a clear vision to Haas down low. If the D packs it in, you have the point from the top passing to either Haas or AJ on both blocks. If a defender comes down to help, you hit the wing for a 3 or a fake to a sprinting out defender and a drive to the hoop.

When the MSU and Maryland bigs were throwing their weight around Caleb picked up fouls doing the right thing. We could have sent the same message with Haas getting an extra foul or two.

BTW, it was amazing that Haas, AJ and Biggie shot 0 FT's against Maryland.

 

[BoilerDeac]

I love Caleb at the 4. I also love to see Edwards at the 4. However, most of all I would love to see Hammons more at the 4.

I realize I keep beating a dead horse, but let's look at the facts.

On D, AJ has shown the foot speed to cover the jump shot. If Haas is covering a non shooter and the player beats AJ, then Haas is there and AJ goes to the rim. If another player goes to the rim and Haas goes to cover, we have been burnt with the pass to the big man for the dunk. Imagine just once, Haas goes to cover and the big man gets the pass to go dunk and AJ comes charging in from the weak side to swat it away. You do this D for 3 minutes a half and it changes the pace of the game. By the time the O adapts, we are back to normal.

On O, you have AJ at the high post. AJ can hit the outside shot and he has a clear vision to Haas down low. If the D packs it in, you have the point from the top passing to either Haas or AJ on both blocks. If a defender comes down to help, you hit the wing for a 3 or a fake to a sprinting out defender and a drive to the hoop.

When the MSU and Maryland bigs were throwing their weight around Caleb picked up fouls doing the right thing. We could have sent the same message with Haas getting an extra foul or two.

BTW, it was amazing that Haas, AJ and Biggie shot 0 FT's against Maryland.

So you're saying take AJ away from the basket aka take AJ away from where he excels the most?

Sorry, but no thanks.

Just because AJ "can" hit the jumper and "can" defend out to the perimeter does not mean he SHOULD be put in that position.

Swanigan CAN shoot the three, but we've seen how he is far more effective in the post.

AJH is a 5. He is a dominant rim protector and elite back to the basket talent in college hoops. Let's leave him there.

 

[*4purdue*]

I don't think people are forgetting that, but that doesn't change anything. He's here now. That can be the excuse/reason for some of his issues (shot selection, defense, turnovers) but they are still issues right now and the extent to which those are addressed will likely determine how long we will play into March. When we lose in the NCAA tournament we don't get to pull out a Swanigan-should-still-be-in-high-school card and magically advance because of it. When we lose, we will be done. And if it is because Swanigan played poor defense, or turned it over 6 times, or went 0-5 from 3, then that will be too bad because those are all things that we knew and had time to address.

We would have lost the MSU game without him. He stepped up and made 2 big baskets at the end of regulation when no one else could

 

[BoilerDeac]

We would have lost the MSU game without him. He stepped up and made 2 big baskets at the end of regulation when no one else could

True, and he was in the post, where he should be.

 

[Dryfly88]

True, and he was in the post, where he should be.

Amen Brother!!

 

[TC4THREE]

We would have lost the MSU game without him. He stepped up and made 2 big baskets at the end of regulation when no one else could

Or maybe without him we have 6 fewer turnovers and 1 less horrible 3 pointer taken and aren't down 4 points late in the game?

 

[gr8indoorsman]

None of us has any idea how Purdue would've done without Caleb against MSU, but it's practically inarguable that his two worst games this year have been the last two. 24 minutes, 8 points on 4-10, 0-2 from 3, 4 rebounds, 4 fouls and 6 turnovers against MSU. That's not a winning line, and I wouldn't hang my hat on that as "we would not have won without him." There's a great chance someone else might've scored or we wouldn't have been in that position in the first place. Caleb did more harm than good against MSU and arguably against Maryland with his shot selection, particularly in the deciding 8-0 Maryland run. 24 minutes is about right for him until he starts valuing the basketball.

IMO, our best lineup puts Vince at the 4 with Mathias, Davis and PJ out there with one of the 5s.

 

[*4purdue*]

Or maybe without him we have 6 fewer turnovers and 1 less horrible 3 pointer taken and aren't down 4 points late in the game?

Wow....really?? You think he's the reason we blew an 18 point lead.... Okay

 

[toddbrewster]

BoilerDeac, winning at sports is all about changing momentum. Time outs and changing the look of the defense is vital. AJ came out and dominated the D in the first half. MSU became rattled and this threw off their offense knowing that they would have trouble going inside. Guess what MSU adapted and came back. We are very fortunate in that we have another rim protector in Haas. Changing up the look of the D for just 3 minutes a half gives us an advantage. Blocking just one jump shot has an advantage even after AJ goes back low.

Haas' strength is also his back to the basket. Haas is arguably one of our 4 best players. Shouldn't he get another 6 minutes a game? AJ can play away from the basket, so why not let AJ feed Haas down low. One of the reasons we lost to Maryland was not getting the ball inside enough. AJ is excellent at making that pass.

Furthermore this will create even more incentive for AJ to play harder at all times and not get as frustrated. He will also realize this skill will help him in the pros. This is a win win situation.

 

[TC4THREE]

Wow....really?? You think he's the reason we blew an 18 point lead.... Okay

I wouldn't pin it on any one player but you'd be hard pressed to find someone who played worse in significant minutes than him in the MSU game.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I love Caleb at the 4. I also love to see Edwards at the 4. However, most of all I would love to see Hammons more at the 4.

I realize I keep beating a dead horse, but let's look at the facts.

On D, AJ has shown the foot speed to cover the jump shot. If Haas is covering a non shooter and the player beats AJ, then Haas is there and AJ goes to the rim. If another player goes to the rim and Haas goes to cover, we have been burnt with the pass to the big man for the dunk. Imagine just once, Haas goes to cover and the big man gets the pass to go dunk and AJ comes charging in from the weak side to swat it away. You do this D for 3 minutes a half and it changes the pace of the game. By the time the O adapts, we are back to normal.

On O, you have AJ at the high post. AJ can hit the outside shot and he has a clear vision to Haas down low. If the D packs it in, you have the point from the top passing to either Haas or AJ on both blocks. If a defender comes down to help, you hit the wing for a 3 or a fake to a sprinting out defender and a drive to the hoop.

When the MSU and Maryland bigs were throwing their weight around Caleb picked up fouls doing the right thing. We could have sent the same message with Haas getting an extra foul or two.

BTW, it was amazing that Haas, AJ and Biggie shot 0 FT's against Maryland.

I'm s big. I love the low post game. I tend to watch post play while the ball is flitting around the perimeter. But I don't think playing two low post 7' centers together has a prayer of working. If anything I think it exacerbates the problems we have had defending the 4 position in many games this year. If I am in the post on offense I want everybody away from me so I can work with less traffic. I like your enthusiasm but don't buy in.

 

[BoilerDeac]

BoilerDeac, winning at sports is all about changing momentum. Time outs and changing the look of the defense is vital. AJ came out and dominated the D in the first half. MSU became rattled and this threw off their offense knowing that they would have trouble going inside. Guess what MSU adapted and came back. We are very fortunate in that we have another rim protector in Haas. Changing up the look of the D for just 3 minutes a half gives us an advantage. Blocking just one jump shot has an advantage even after AJ goes back low.

Haas' strength is also his back to the basket. Haas is arguably one of our 4 best players. Shouldn't he get another 6 minutes a game? AJ can play away from the basket, so why not let AJ feed Haas down low. One of the reasons we lost to Maryland was not getting the ball inside enough. AJ is excellent at making that pass.

Furthermore this will create even more incentive for AJ to play harder at all times and not get as frustrated. He will also realize this skill will help him in the pros. This is a win win situation.

I see your point, but I also think you're overestimating Haas as a rim protector. AJH is an entirely different level of defender and rim protector than Haas. He is a massive defensive upgrade over Haas, but don't get me wrong, I love Haas as a player.

Also, I think a lot of MSU coming back had to do with them not shooting ~25%. We knew they wouldn't keep that up, and we knew Purdue wouldn't continue to shoot 60%+. Regression to the mean.

 

[gr8indoorsman]

I just want to know how anyone knows whether AJ can make a post entry feed or not. Poster said. "He's excellent at making that pass." Huh?

 

[toddbrewster]

Have you not seen AJ passes from up high to Caleb in the low post? He has done an excellent job.

There are two types of rim protectors. Haas is huge and he changes shots just by inside players looking at him. Also his presence make a lot of players rethink about shooting when he is in plain sight (and it is hard to miss him). He plays great positioned defense as a rim protector. Not a great shot blocker, but great at altering shots.

AJ is more agile and he can afford to stray more and then move to block the shot. This agility allows him to block jump shots, if he decides to go outside. He can do it against 4 or 5's who purposely stay outside to draw AJ out. There are many times AJ goes halfway, because he knows if he fully commits, he leaves the rim unprotected.

If a 4 or 5 gets hot from the outside AJ, knowing Haas is protecting the rim, can go out on them and force them go to plan B. As I said, when someone drives on Haas and Haas has great position the player if smart will pass to the big man like Maryland did a few times. Imagine just once the big man seeing Haas on the driver goes up for the gimme and has his ball swotted away from AJ coming from left field. The place would explode and their offense will be disrupted.

 

[Dakota Girl]

Have you not seen AJ passes from up high to Caleb in the low post? He has done an excellent job.

There are two types of rim protectors. Haas is huge and he changes shots just by inside players looking at him. Also his presence make a lot of players rethink about shooting when he is in plain sight (and it is hard to miss him). He plays great positioned defense as a rim protector. Not a great shot blocker, but great at altering shots.

AJ is more agile and he can afford to stray more and then move to block the shot. This agility allows him to block jump shots, if he decides to go outside. He can do it against 4 or 5's who purposely stay outside to draw AJ out. There are many times AJ goes halfway, because he knows if he fully commits, he leaves the rim unprotected.

If a 4 or 5 gets hot from the outside AJ, knowing Haas is protecting the rim, can go out on them and force them go to plan B. As I said, when someone drives on Haas and Haas has great position the player if smart will pass to the big man like Maryland did a few times. Imagine just once the big man seeing Haas on the driver goes up for the gimme and has his ball swotted away from AJ coming from left field. The place would explode and their offense will be disrupted.

If you have both in at once AJ has to take the 4. Almost everyone uses a smaller more athletic 4. I see no way for AJ to guard a 4 without giving up the drive. This pulls Haas over to help and leaves either a dish to the 5 Haas left to help or a kick to the perimeter we left to cover the 5. The only way it works is if AJ can cover a Vince Edwards type player by defending the three and still being able to stop his drive. No prayer of that happening.

 

[gr8indoorsman]

I have seen AJ make slip passes to Swanigan when Swanigan is rolling off of action caused by the high screener. I've never seen AJ make a traditional post entry pass, and I don't think there's enough evidence out there to say, "he's excellent at feeding the post."

With respect to your 3-minutes per half idea, I don't think it'd be nearly as effective as you think it'd be. The story you're telling is one of "if everything works perfectly." If it doesn't work perfectly, you're leaving shooters open because you're forcing Hammons into a position to play ball screen defense for the first time in his career. Now you end up with Hammons trying to guard someone like Abdur-Rahman or trying to switch back with the wing defender. That would wreak havoc on our rotations, not to mention that Haas isn't half the rim protector that Hammons is. Yikes.

I'm not sure we're good enough at our base defense to go spending significant practice time on what amounts to a wrinkle.

 

[toddbrewster]

I have seen 4 or 5 times AJ pass from the high post to Caleb when he has a guy on his back and each time the ball went in and I believe each time Caleb scored. Mainly we have seen Caleb making this pass to AJ or Haas and IMO it is an easier pass for AJ even though Caleb has done well.

Each game Haas or AJ have come out to defend a pick or screen. When this happens, AJ or Haas stop the drive and the player passes or shoots with the other defender flying at him. In this D, AJ or Haas can also fly at the shooter as they know they have a rim protector behind them.

Worse case scenario was when Maryland did this and the player would then pass out to the SF who picked and popped and he made I believe 3 3's with Caleb flying at him. Worse case is now we have a 7 footer with hops flying at you.

If a team like Michigan goes small and AJ may have to play a smaller PF, the PF is not used to shooting jump shots with a guy that is big guarding you. If he drives, there is Haas and also consider if he drives how many times have we seen AJ get beat and still block the shot? However, lets say we have a player who adjusts quickly and does a side step and shoots to fast for AJ. Don't forget he has to guard AJ on the transition.